1,129
Views
18
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Technical Papers

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers

, , , , , , , , , , & show all
Pages 1061-1074 | Published online: 21 Aug 2012

References

  • Avise , J. , Chen , J. , Lamb , B. , Wiedinmyer , C. , Guenther , A. , Salathé , E. and Mass , C. 2008 . Attribution of projected changes in summertime U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 8 : 15131 – 15163 .
  • Bloomer , B.J. , Stehr , J.W. , Piety , C.A. , Salawitch , R.J. and Dickerson , R.R. 2009 . Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 36 : L09803 doi: 10.1029/2009GL037308
  • Bond , T.C. , Streets , D.G. , Yarber , K.F. , Nelson , S.M. , Woo , J.H. and Klimont , Z.A. 2004 . Technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion . J. Geophys. Res. , 109 : D14203 doi: 10.1029/2003JD003697
  • Byun , D. and Schere , K.L. 2006 . Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system . Appl. Mech. Rev. , 59 : 51 – 77 .
  • Carter, W.L. 2000. Implementation of the SAPRC-99 Chemical Mechanism into the Models-3 Framework, Report to the United States Environmental Protection Agency http://www.engr.ucr.edu/~carter/pubs/s99mod3.pdf (http://www.engr.ucr.edu/~carter/pubs/s99mod3.pdf) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Chen , J. , Avise , J. , Guenther , A. , Wiedinmyer , C. , Salathé , E. , Jackson , R.B. and Lamb , B. 2009 . Future Land Use and Land Cover Influences on Regional Biogenic Emissions and Air Quality in the United States . Atmos. Environ. , 43 : 5771 – 5780 . doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.015
  • Chen , J. , Avise , J. , Lamb , B. , Salathé , E. , Mass , C. , Guenther , A. , Wiedinmyer , C. , Lamarque , J.-F. , 'Neill , S. O , McKenzie , D. and Larkin , N. 2008 . The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 8 : 15165 – 15205 .
  • Cox , P.M. , Betts , R.A. , Jones , C.D. , Spall , S.A. and Totterdell , I.J. 2000 . Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model . Nature , 408 : 184 – 187 . doi: 10.1038/35041539
  • Dulière , V. , Zhang , Y.X. and Salathé , E.P. 2011 . Extreme precipitation and temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data, and regional models . J. Climat. , 24 : 1950 – 1964 .
  • Dunker , A.M. , Yarwood , G. , Ortmann , J.P. and Wilson , G.M. 2002 . The decoupled direct method for sensitivity analysis in a three-dimensional air quality model—Implementation, accuracy, and efficiency . Environ. Sci. Technol. , 36 : 2965 – 2976 .
  • Emery , C. , Jung , J. , Downey , N. , Johnson , J. , Jimenez , M. , Yarwood , G. and Morris , R. 2012 . Regional and global modeling estimates of policy relevant background ozone over the United States . Atmos. Environ. , 47 : 206 – 217 . doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.012
  • European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). 2010. Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.1 http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu (http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Fishbone , L.G. and Abilock , H. 1981 . MARKAL: A linear-programming model for energy-systems analysis: Technical description of the BNL version . J. Energy Res. , 5 : 353 – 375 .
  • Foley , K.M. , Roselle , S.J. , Appel , K.W. , Bhave , P.V. , Pleim , J.E. , Otte , T.L. , Mathur , R. , Sarwar , G. , Young , J.O. , Gilliam , R.C. , Nolte , C.G. , Kelly , J.T. , Gilliland , A.B. and Bash , J.O. 2010 . Incremental testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 . Geosci. Model Dev. , 3 : 205 – 226 .
  • Granier, C., J.F. Lamarque, A. Mieville, J.F. Müller, J. Olivier, J. Orlando, J. Peters, G. Petron, G. Tyndall, and S. Wallens. 2005. POET, a Database of Surface Emissions of Ozone Precursors http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/projet/ACCENT/POET.php (http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/projet/ACCENT/POET.php) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Grell , G.A. , Dudhia , J. and Stauffer , D.R. 1994 . A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) , Boulder , CO : National Center for Atmospheric Research. NCAR/TN-398+STR .
  • Guenther , A. , Karl , T. , Wiedinmyer , C. , Palmer , P.I. and Geron , C. 2006 . Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 6 : 3181 – 3210 .
  • Harley , R.A. , Russell , A.G. , McRae , G.J. , Cass , G.R. and Seinfeld , J.H. 1993 . Photochemical modeling of the Southern California Air Quality Study . Environ. Sci. Technol. , 27 : 378 – 388 .
  • Heald , C.L. , Wilkinson , M.J. , Monson , R.K. , Alo , C.A. , Wang , G. and Guenther , A. 2009 . Response of isoprene emission to ambient CO2 changes and implications for global budgets . Glob. Change Biol. , 15 : 1127 – 1140 . doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01802.x
  • Hogrefe , C. , Lynn , B. , Civerolo , K. , Ku , J.-Y. , Rosenthal , J. , Rosenzweit , C. , Goldberg , R. , Gaffin , S. , Knowlton , K. and Kinney , P.L. 2004 . Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions . J. Geophys. Res. , 109 : D22301 doi: 10.1029/2004JD004690
  • Jacob , D.J. , Logan , J.A. , Gardner , G.M. , Yevich , R.M. , Spivakovsky , C.M. and Wofsy , S.C. 1993 . Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere . J. Geophys. Res. , 98 : 14,817 – 14,826 .
  • Jacob , D.J. and Winner , D.A. 2008 . Effect of climate change on air quality . Atmos. Environ. , 43 : 51 – 63 . doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv. 2008.09.051
  • Leung , L.R. and Gustafson , W.I. Jr. 2005 . Potential regional climate change and implications to U.S. air quality . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 32 : L16711 doi: 10.1029/2005GL022911
  • Leung , L.R. , Kuo , Y.H. and Tribbia , J. 2006 . Research needs and directions of regional climate modeling using WRF and CCSM . Br. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , 87 : 1747 – 1751 .
  • Liao , K.-J. , Tagaris , E. , Manomaiphiboon , K. , Wang , C. , Woo , J.-H. , Amar , P. , He , S. and Russell , A.G. 2009 . Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 9 : 865 – 878 .
  • Loughlin , D.H. , Benjey , W.G. and Nolte , C.G. 2011 . ESP v1.0: Methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States . Geosci. Model Dev. , 4 : 287 – 297 . doi: 10.5194/gmd-4-287-2011
  • Loulou, R., G. Golstein, and K. Noble. 2004. Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf (http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Marsland , S.J. , Haak , H. , Jungclaus , J.H. , Latif , M. and Röske , F. 2003 . The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates . Ocean Model. , 5 : 91 – 127 .
  • McDonald-Buller , E.C. , Allen , D.T. , Brown , N. , Jacob , D.J. , Jaffe , D. , Kolb , C.E. , Lefohn , A.S. , Oltmans , S. , Parrish , D.D. , Yarwood , G. and Zhang , L. 2011 . Establishing policy relevant background (PRB) ozone concentrations in the United States . Environ. Sci. Technol. , 45 : 9484 – 9497 . doi: dx.doi.org/10.1021/es2022818
  • Mickley , L.J. , Jacob , D.J. and Field , B.D. 2004 . Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 31 : L24103 doi: 10.1029/2004GL021216
  • Milford , B. , Russell , A.G. and McRae , G.J. 1989 . A new approach to photochemical pollution control: Implications of spatial patterns in pollutant responses to reductions in nitrogen oxides and reactive organic gas emissions . Environ. Sci. Technol. , 23 : 1290 – 1301 .
  • Nakicenovic , N. 2000 . IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios , Cambridge , , UK : Cambridge University Press .
  • Olivier, J., J. Peters, C. Granier, G. Petron, J.F. Müller, and S. Wallens. 2003. Present and Future Surface Emissions of Atmospheric Compounds, POET Report #2, EU Project EVK2-1999-00011 http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/projet/ACCENT/documentsdel2_final.doc (http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/projet/ACCENT/documentsdel2_final.doc) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Otte , T.L. and Pleim , J.E. 2010 . The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the CMAQ modeling system: Updates through MCIPv3.4.1 . Geosci. Model Dev. , 3 : 243 – 256 .
  • Racherla , P.N. and Adams , P.J. 2008 . The response of surface ozone to climate change over the eastern United States . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 8 : 871 – 885 .
  • Rafaj , P. , Kypreos , S. and Barreto , L. 2005 . Flexible carbon mitigation policies: Analysis with a global multi-regional MARKAL model . Adv. Glob. Change Res. , 22 : 237 – 266 . doi: 10.1007/1-4020-3425-3_9
  • Reidmiller , D.R. 2009 . The influence of foreign vs. North American emissions on surface ozone in the US . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 9 : 5027 – 5042 .
  • Rind , D. , Lerner , J. , Shah , K. and Suozzo , R. 1999 . Use of on-line tracers as a diagnostic tool in general circulation model development: 2. Transport between the troposphere and the stratosphere . J. Geophys. Res. , 104 : 9123 – 9139 .
  • Roeckner , E. , äuml , G. B , Bonaventura , L. , Brokopf , R. , Esch , M. , Giorgetta , M. , Hagemann , S. , Kirchner , I. , Kornbleuh , L. , Manzini , E. , Rhodin , A. , Schlese , U. , Schulzweida , U. and Tomkins , A. 2003 . The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM5, Part I: Model Description , Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Report No. 349 . http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/ publikationen/Reports/max_scirep_349.pdf
  • Roeckner , E. , Bengtsson , L. , Feichter , J. , Lelieveld , J. and Rodhe , H. 1999 . Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm including the tropospheric sulfur cycle . J. Clim. , 12 : 3004 – 3032 .
  • Salathé , E.P. , Leung , L.R. , Qian , Y. and Zhang , Y. 2010 . Regional climate model projections for the state of Washington . Clim. Change , 102 : 51 – 75 .
  • Salathé , E.P. , Steed , R. , Mass , C.F. and Zahn , P.H. 2008 . A high-resolution climate model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change . J. Clim. , 21 : 5708 – 5726 .
  • Sanderson , M.G. , Jones , C.D. , Collins , W.J. , Johnson , C.E. and Derwent , R.G. 2003 . Effect of climate change on isoprene emissions and surface ozone levels . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 30 : 1936 – 1939 . doi: 10.1029/2003GL017642
  • Sillman , S. and Samson , P.J. 1995 . The impact of temperature on oxidant formation in urban, polluted rural and remote environments . J. Geophys. Res. , 100 : 11497 – 11508 .
  • Skamarock, W.C., J.G. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D.O. Gill, D.M. Barker, W. Wang, and J.G. Powers. 2005. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.wrf-model.org/wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf (http://www.wrf-model.org/wrfadmin/docs/arw_v2.pdf) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Steiner , A.L. , Davis , A.J. , Sillman , S. , Owen , R.C. , Michalak , A.M. and Fiore , A.M. 2010 . Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks . Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA , 107 : 19685 – 19690 . doi: 10.1073/pnas. 1008336107
  • Tagaris , E. , Manomaiphiboon , K. , Liao , K.-J. , Leung , L.R. , Woo , J.-H. , He , S. , Amar , P. and Russel , A.G. 2007 . Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States . J. Geophys. Res. , 112 : D14312 doi: 10.1029/2006JD008262
  • Tao , Z. , Williams , A. , Huang , H.-C. , Caughey , M. and Liang , X.-Z. 2007 . Sensitivity of US surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 : L08811 doi: 10.1029/2007GL029455
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2006. MARKAL Scenario Analysis of Technology Options for the Electric Sector: The Impact on Air Quality. EPA/600/R-06/114 http://www.epa.gov/nrmrl/pubs/600r06114/600r06114.pdf (http://www.epa.gov/nrmrl/pubs/600r06114/600r06114.pdf) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2007. Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze. EPA-454/B-07-002. Research Triangle Park, NC: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/final-03-pm-rh-guidance.pdf (http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/final-03-pm-rh-guidance.pdf) (Accessed: 8 April 2012 ).
  • Weaver , C.P. , Liang , X.-Z. , Zhu , J. , Adams , P.J. , Amar , P. Avise , J. 2009 . A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , 90 : 1843 – 1863 . doi: 10.1175/2009BAMSS2568.1
  • Wu , S. , Mickley , L.J. , Leibensperger , E.M. , Jacob , D.J. , Rind , D. and Streets , D.G. 2008 . Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States . J. Geophys. Res. , 113 : D06302 doi: 10.1029/2007JD008917
  • Wunderli , S. and Gehrig , R. 1991 . Influence of temperature on formation and stability of surface PAN and ozone. A two year field study in Switzerland . Atmos. Environ. , 25A : 1599 – 1608 .
  • Yang , Y.J. , Wilkinson , J.G. and Russell , A.G. 1997 . Fast, direct sensitivity analysis of multidimensional photochemical models . Environ. Sci. Technol. , 31 : 2859 – 2868 .
  • Zanis , P. , Katragkou , E. , Tegoulias , I. , Poupkou , A. , Melas , D. , Huszar , P. and Giorgi , F. 2011 . Evaluation of near surface ozone in air quality simulations forced by a regional climate model over Europe for the period 1991–2000 . Atmos. Environ. , 45 : 6489 – 6500 . doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.09.001
  • Zhang , Y. , Hu , X.-M. , Leung , L.R. and Gustafson , W.I. Jr. 2008 . Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality . J. Geophys. Res. , 113 : D18310 doi: 10.1029/2008JD009965
  • Zhang , Y. , Qian , Y. , Dulière , V. , Salathé , E.P. and Leung , L.R. 2011 . ENSO anomalies over the western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate model simulations . Clim. Change , 110 : 315 – 346 . doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0088-7

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.