1,663
Views
9
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Technical Paper

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

, , &
Pages 1327-1340 | Received 24 Mar 2015, Accepted 25 Jun 2015, Published online: 20 Oct 2015

References

  • Acton, J. M., and M. Hibbs. 2012. Why Fukushima was preventable. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • Akhtar, F., R. Pinder, D. Loughlin, and D. Henze. 2013. GLIMPSE: A rapid decision framework for energy and environmental policy. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47(21):12011–19. doi:10.1021/es402283j
  • Bishop, P., A. Hines, and T. Collins. 2007. The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques. Foresight 9(1):5–25. doi:10.1108/14636680710727516
  • Butcher, J. 2011. Entegra Partners. Personal communication.
  • California Air Resources Board. 2007. Air Resources Board’s Proposed State Strategy for California’s 2007 State Implementation Plan. Sacramento, CA: California Environmental Protection Agency, California Air Resources Board.
  • Cervero, R. 1998. The Transit Metropolis: A Global Inquiry. Washington, DC: Island Press.
  • Cofala, J., M. Amann, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, and L. Hoglund-Isaksson. 2007. Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030. Atmos. Environ 41:8486–8499. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.07.010
  • Chiles, J.R. 2002. Inviting Disaster, Lessons From the Edge of Technology. New York, NY: Harper Collins.
  • Craig, P.P., A. Gadgil, and J.G. Koomey. 2002. What can history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 27:83–118. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.27.122001.083425
  • Energy Information Administration. 2014. Nuclear Regulatory Commission resumes license renewals for nuclear power plants. Today in Energy. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18591 (accessed March 24, 2015).
  • Federal Highway Administration. 2013. 2013 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges and Transit: Conditions and Performance. Washington, DC: Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.
  • Gamas, J. 2012. Scenarios for the future of air quality: Planning and analysis in an uncertain world. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/workingpapers/WorkingPaperFutureScenarios_07Nov12.pdf (accessed March 24, 2015)
  • Ghanadan, R., and J.G. Koomey. 2005. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California. Energy Policy 33:1117–1142. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.11.011
  • Goodwin, J. 2011. Why we were surprised (again) by the Arab Spring. Swiss Polit. Sci. Rev. 17(4):452–456. doi:10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02045.x
  • Hobbs, B.F., M.-C. Hu, J.H. Ellis, A. Paul, D. Burtraw, and K.L. Palmer. 2010. From regions to stacks: Spatial and temporal downscaling of future pollution scenarios for the power sector. IEEE Trans. Power Systems 25(2):1179–89. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2036801
  • Institute of Medicine. 2013. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Medicine.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies Technical Summary. IPCC Expert Meeting Report. Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • Jacob, D.J. and D. Winner. 2009. Effect of climate change on air quality. Atmos. Environ 43:51–63. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051
  • Koomey, J., P. Craig, A. Gadgil, and D. Lorenzetti. 2003. Improving long-range energy modeling: A plea for historical perspectives. Energy Journal. 24(4):75–91. doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-4
  • Koomey, J.G. 2002. From my perspective: Avoiding “The Big Mistake” in forecasting technology adoption. Technol. Forecast. Social Change 69:511–18. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00153-6
  • Kotter, J.P. 2012. Accelerate! The big idea. Harvard Business Review November:44–58.
  • Kraucunas I., L. Clarke, J. Dirks, J. Hathaway, M. Hejazi, K. Hibbard, M. Huang, C. Jin, M. Kintner-Meyer, K. Kleese van Dam, R. Leung, H.-Y. Li, R. Moss, M. Peterson, J. Rice, M. Scott, A. Thomson, N. Voisin, and T. West. 2015. Investigating the nexus of climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Climatic Change 129(3–4):573–88. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1064-9
  • Levi, M. 2014. Opinion: Why the world missed the oil price crash. Washington Post, December 5. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-we-missed-the-oil-price-crash/2014/12/05/d1fbf552-7a57-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html (accessed March 24, 2015).
  • Loulou, R., G. Goldstein, and K. Noble. 2004. Documentation for the MARKAL family of models. http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf (accessed March 24, 2015).
  • Loughlin, D.H. 2013. Exploring how technology growth limits impact optimal carbon dioxide mitigation pathways. In Treatise on Sustainable Science and Engineering, 175–190, ed. I.S. Jawahir, S.K. Sikdar, and Y. Huang. New York, NY: Springer.
  • Loughlin, D.H., W. Yelverton, R. Dodder, and C.A. Miller. 2013. Methodology for examining potential technology breakthroughs for mitigating CO2 and application to centralized solar photovoltaics. Clean Technol. Environ. Policy 15:9–20. doi:10.1007/s10098-012-0478-1
  • Loughlin, D.H., W. G. Benjey, and C.G. Nolte. 2011. ESP v1.0: Methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States. Geosci. Model Dev. 4(2):287–97. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-287-2011
  • Mackenzie, F.T. 2003. The Changing Atmosphere: Acid Deposition and Photochemical Smog. Our Changing Planet, An Introduction to Earth System Science and Global Environmental Change. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • Mahmoud, M., Y. Liu, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart, T. Wagener, D. Semmens, R. Stewart, H. Gupta, D. Dominguez, F. Dominguez, D. Hulse, R. Letcher, B. Rashleigh, C. Smith, R. Street, J. Ticehurst, M. Twery, H. van Delden, R. Waldick, D. White, and L. Winter. 2009. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environ. Model. Software 24:798–808. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010
  • Millett, S.M. 1988. How scenarios trigger strategic thinking. Long Range Plan. 21(5):61–68. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(88)90106-9
  • Moore, F.C. 2009. Climate change and air pollution: Exploring the synergies and potential for mitigation in industrializing countries. Sustainability 1:43–54. doi:10.3390/su1010043
  • National Parks Service. 2013. Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change: A Handbook for Practitioners. Fort Collins, CO: National Parks Service.
  • New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. 2012. Applying the Multi-Pollutant Policy Analysis Framework to New York: An Integrated Approach to Future Air Quality Planning. Report 12–10. Prepared by Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM). www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/Publications/Research/Environmental/applying-multipollutant-policy-analysis-framework-NY.pdf (accessed May 14, 2015).
  • Ogilvy, J., and P. Schwartz 1998. Plotting your scenarios. In Learning From the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, 57–80, ed. L. Fahey and R. Randall. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Office of Management and Budget. 2003. Circular A-4. Washington, DC: The White House.
  • Perrow, C. 1999. Normal Accidents: Living With High-Risk Technologies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Peterson, G.D., G.S. Cumming, and S.R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario planning: A tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv. Biol. 17(2):358–66. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01491.x
  • Polasky, S., S.R. Carpenter, C. Folke, and B. Keeler 2011. Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26(8):398–404. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007
  • Polzin, S.E. 2006. The Case for Moderate Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel: A Critical Juncture in U.S. Travel Behavior Trends. Tampa, FL: Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida.
  • Ran, L., D.H. Loughlin, D. Yang, Z. Adelman, B.H. Baek, and C.G. Nolte. 2015. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States—Addressing spatial allocation. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 8:263–300. doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-263-2015
  • Rudokas, J., P.J. Miller, M.A. Trail, and A.G. Russell. 2015. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: Impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49(8):5170–77. doi:10.1021/es505159z
  • Scher, I., and J.G. Koomey. 2011. Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible? Climatic Change 104:473–79. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9945-z
  • Schoemaker, P.J.H. 1991. When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. J. Forecast. 10:549–64. doi:10.1002/for.3980100602
  • Schwartz, P. 1997. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Senge, P.M. 2006. The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York, NY: Currency Doubleday.
  • Silberglitt, R., A. Hove, and P. Shulman 2003. Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technol. Forecast. Social Change 70:297–315. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00254-8
  • Soderholm, P., R. Hildingsson, B. Johansson, J. Khan, and F. Wilhelmsson. 2011. Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050. Futures. 43:1105–16. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.009
  • Sussman, J.M., R.S. Dodder, J.B. McConnell, A. Mostashari, and S. Sgouridis 2009. The CLIOS process, A user’s guide. http://web.mit.edu/hsr-group/publications.html (accessed March 24, 2015).
  • Tai, A.P.K., L.J. Mickley, and D.J. Jacob. 2012. Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 12:18107–31. doi:10.5194/acpd-12-18107-2012
  • Talab, N. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York, NY: Random House.
  • Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. 2012. Infrastructure and transport SIP revision for the 2008 ozone standard. https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/sip/criteria-pollutants/sip-ozone (accessed March 24, 2015).
  • van der Heijden, K. 2005. The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Varum, C.A., and C. Melo 2010. Directions in scenario planning literature—A review of the past decades. Futures 42:355–69. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021
  • Volkery, A., and T. Ribeiro. 2009. Scenario Planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technol. Forecast. Social Change 76:1198–207. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.009
  • Wack, P. 1985a. Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Rev. September:73–89.
  • Wack, P. 1985b. Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Rev. November:139–50.
  • U.S. EPA. 2001. Clean Diesel Trucks, Buses, and Fuel: Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel Sulfur Control Requirements. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2005. Clean Air Interstate Rule. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2009. Regulatory impact analysis of the national ambient air quality standard for sulfur dioxide. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2011. Cross-state air pollution rule (CSAPR). Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2012a. Regulatory impact analysis of the final new source performance standards and amendments to the National Emissions Standards for hazardous air pollutants for the oil and natural gas industry. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2012b. Regulatory impact analysis: Final rulemaking for 2017–2025 Light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards and corporate average fuel economy standards. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
  • U.S. EPA. 2013. EPA U.S. nine-region MARKAL database: Database documentation. EPA600/B-13/203. Research Triangle Park, NC: Office of Research and Development, Risk Management Research Laboratory, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division.
  • U.S. EPA. 2014. Regulatory impact analysis of the proposed revisions to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ground-level ozone. EPA-452/P-14-006. Research Triangle Park, NC: Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
  • U.S. EPA. 2015. Final State Implementation Plan (SIP) requirements rule for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Presentation. Washington, DC: Office of Air and Radiation. http://www.epa.gov/airquality/ozonepollution/pdfs/20150226o3srrwebinar.pdf (accessed May 14, 2015).
  • Xing, J., S.X. Wang, S. Chatanr, C.Y. Zhang, W. Wei, J.M. Hao, Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, and M. Amann. 2011. Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11:3119–36. doi:10.5194/acp-11-3119-2011
  • Zmud, J.P., V.P. Barabba, M. Bradley, J.R. Kuzmyak, M. Zmud, and D. Orrell. 2014. The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel Demand. Strategic Issues Facing Transportation. Washington, DC: National Academies, Transportation Research Board.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.