2,891
Views
56
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Technical Papers

The FireWork air quality forecast system with near-real-time biomass burning emissions: Recent developments and evaluation of performance for the 2015 North American wildfire season

, , , , , & show all
Pages 819-841 | Received 16 Dec 2015, Accepted 22 Feb 2016, Published online: 02 Mar 2016

References

  • Alaska Interagency Coordination Center. 2015. Alaska Interagency Coordination Center 2015 fall fire review statistics summary. http://fire.ak.blm.gov/predsvcs/intel.php (accessed December 2, 2015).
  • Al-Saadi, J., A.J. Soja, R.B. Pierce, J. Szykman, C. Wiedinmyer, L. Emmons, S. Kondragunta, X. Zhang, C. Kittaka, T. Schaack, and K. Bowman. 2008. Intercomparison of near-real-time biomass burning emissions estimates constrained by satellite fire data. J. Appl. Remote Sens. 2(1): 021504. doi:10.1117/1.2948785
  • Anderson, G.K., D.V. Sandberg, and R.A. Norheim. 2004. Fire Emission Production Simulator (FEPS) User’s Guide. USDA Forest Service 99, Seattle, WA. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/feps/FEPS_users_guide.pdf
  • Anderson, K.R., P. Englefield, J.M. Little, and G. Reuter. 2009. An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada. Int. J. Wildland Fire 18:893–905. doi:10.1071/WF08046
  • Antonopoulos, S., P. Bourgouin, J. Montpetit, and G. Croteau. 2010. Forecasting O3, PM2.5 and NO2 hourly spot concentrations using an updatable MOS methodology. Proc. 31st NATO/SPS ITM on Air Pollution Modelling and Its Application, 27 September–1 October 2010, Turin, Italy.
  • Briggs, G.A. 1975. Plume rise predictions. In Lectures on Air Pollution and Environmental Impact Analysis, D.A. Haugen, ed. 59–111. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society.
  • Canada Gazette. 2013. Amendment to Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Canada Gazette, Part I 147(21): 17–20, May 25. http://www.gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/2013/2013-05-25/html/notice-avis-eng.html#d106 (accessed December 13, 2015).
  • Carolina Environmental Programs. 2012. Sparse matrix operator kernel emission. Modeling system. University of Carolina, Carolina Environmental Programs, Research Triangle Park, NC. https://www.cmascenter.org/smoke (accessed December 2, 2015).
  • Charron, M., S. Polavarapu, M. Buehner, P.A. Vaillancourt, C. Charrette, M. Roch, J. Morneau, L. Garand, J.M. Aparicio, S. MacPherson, S. Pellerin, J. St-James, and S. Heilliette. 2012. The stratospheric extension of the Canadian global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and its impact on tropospheric forecasts. Month. Weather Rev. 140:1924–44. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00097.1
  • Chen, J., V. Bouchet, S. Cousineau, D. Davignon, A. Duhamel, S. Gilbert, S. Ménard, J. Racine, M. Samaali and M. Sassi. 2010. 2006 Annual operational evaluation of the Environment Canada Air Quality Modelling System. 9th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC. https://www.cmascenter.org/conference/2010/abstracts/chen_2006_annual_2010.pdf
  • Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. 2015. Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre current fire situation report. http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27 (accessed December 2, 2015).
  • Côté, J., S. Gravel, A. Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth. 1998a. The operational CMC/MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part 1. Design considerations and formulation, Month. Weather Rev. 126:1373–95. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126%3C1373: TOCMGE%3E2.0.CO;2
  • Côté, J., J.-G. Desmarais, S. Gravel, A. Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth. 1998b. The operational CMC-MRB Global Environment Multiscale (GEM) model. Part 2. Results. Month. Weather Rev. 126:1397–418. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126%3C1397: TOCMGE%3E2.0.CO;2
  • Cottle, P., K. Strawbridge, and I. McKendry. 2014. Long-range transport of Siberian wildfire smoke to British Columbia: Lidar observations and air quality impacts. Atmos. Environ. 90:71–77. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.03.005
  • Crutzen, P.J., and M.O. Andreae. 1990. Biomass burning in the tropics: Impact on atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles. Science 250:1669–78. doi:10.1126/science.250.4988.1669
  • Crutzen, P. J, L. Heidt, J. Krasnec, W. Pollock, and W. Seiler. 1979. Biomass burning as a source of atmospheric gases CO, H2, N2O, NO, CH3Cl and COS. Nature 282(5736): 253–56. doi:10.1038/282253a0
  • Damoah R., N. Spichtinger, R. Servranckx, M. Fromm, E.W. Eloranta, I.A. Razenkov, P. James, M. Shulski, C. Forster, and A. Stohl. 2006. A case study of pyro-convection using transport model and remote sensing data. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6:173–85. doi:10.5194/acp-6-173-2006
  • Darmenov, A., and A. da Silva. 2013. The quick fire emissions dataset (QFED)—Documentation of versions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.4. NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA TM-2013-104606, 32, 183, Greenbelt, MD. doi:10.1007/978-1-935704-23-2
  • de Groot W.J., J.M. Pritchard, and T.J. Lynham. 2009. Forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in Canadian boreal forest fires. Can. J. For. Res. 39:367–82. doi:10.1139/X08-192
  • Ecological Stratification Working Group. 1995. A national ecological framework for Canada. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch, Centre for Land and Biological Resources Research and Environment Canada, State of Environment Directorate.
  • El-Harbawi, M. 2013. Air quality modelling, simulation, and computational methods: A review. Environ. Rev. 21(3): 149–79. doi:10.1139/er-2012-0056
  • Emmons, L.K., S. Walters, P.G. Hess, J.-F. Lamarque, G.G. Pfister, D. Fillmore, C. Granier, A. Guenther, D. Kinnison, T. Laepple, J. Orlando, X. Tie, G. Tyndall, C. Wiedinmyer, S.L. Baughcum, and S. Kloster, S., 2010. Description and evaluation of the model for ozone and related chemical tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), Geosci. Model Dev. 3:43–67. doi:10.5194/gmd-3-43-2010
  • Flannigan, M., A.S. Cantin, W.J. de Groot, M. Wotton, A. Newbery, and L.M. Gowman, 2013. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. For. Ecol. Manage. 294:54–61. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022
  • Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group. 1992. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. Science and Sustainable Development Directorate, Information Report ST-X-3, Vol. 3. Forestry Canada, Science and Sustainable Development Directorate, Ottawa, Canada. http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/10068.pdf
  • Freitas, S.R., K.M. Longo, R. Chatfield, D. Latham, M.A.F. Silva Dias, M.O. Andreae, E. Prins., J.C. Santos, R. Gielow, and J.A. Carvalho, Jr. 2007. Including the sub-grid scale plume rise of vegetation fires in low resolution atmospheric transport models. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7:3385–98, doi:10.5194/acp-7-3385-2007
  • Fromm M., and R. Servranckx. 2003. Transport of forest fire smoke above the tropopause by supercell convection. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30:1542. doi:10.1029/2002GL016820
  • Fromm M., R. Bevilacqua, R. Servranckx, J. Rosen, J. Thayer, J. Herman, and D. Larko. 2005. Pyrocumulonimbus injection of smoke to the stratosphere: Observations and impact of a super blowup in northwestern Canada on 3–4 August 1998. J. Geophys. Res. 110:D08205. doi:10.1029/2004JD005350
  • Gatebe, C.K., T. Varnai, R. Poudyal, C. Ichoku, and M.D. King. 2012. Taking the pulse of pyrocumulus clouds. Atmos. Environ. 52:121. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.01.045
  • Giglio, L, J. Descloitres, C.O. Justice, and Y.J. Kaufman. 2003. An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS. Remote Sens. Environ. 87(2): 273–82. doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00184-6
  • Gillis M.D., A.Y. Omule, and T. Brierley, 2005. Monitoring Canada’s forests: The National Forest Inventory. For. Chron. 81:214–21. doi:10.5558/tfc81214-2
  • Gong, S.L., L.A. Barrie, J.-P. Blanchet, K. von Salzen, U. Lohmann, G. Lesins, L. Spacek, L.M. Zhang, E. Girard, H. Lin, R. Leaitch, H. Leighton, P. Chylek, and P. Huang, 2003. Canadian Aerosol Module: A size segregated simulation of atmospheric aerosol processes for climate and air quality models: Part 1. Module development. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1): 4007. doi:10.1029/2001JD002002
  • Hanna, S.R., A.G. Russell, J.G. Wilkinson, J. Vukovich, and D.A. Hansen. 2005. Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainties in BEIS3 emission outputs and their effects on uncertainties in chemical transport model predictions. J. Geophys. Res. 110:D01302. doi:10.1029/2004JD004986
  • Heilman, W.E., Y. Liu, S. Urbanski, V. Kovalev, and R. Mickler. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Plume rise, atmospheric transport, and chemistry processes. For. Ecol. Manage. 317:70–79. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.02.001
  • Henderson B.S., M. Brauer, Y.C. MacNab, and S.M. Kennedy. 2011. Three measures of forest fire smoke exposure and their associations with respiratory and cardiovascular health outcomes in a population-based cohort. Environ. Health Perspect. 119:1266–71. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002288
  • Herron-Thorpe, F.L., G.H. Mount, L. Emmons, B.K. Lamb, S.H. Chung, and J.K. Vaughan. 2012. Regional air-quality forecasting for the Pacific Northwest using MOPITT/TERRA assimilated carbon monoxide MOZART-4 forecasts as a near real-time boundary condition, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12:5603–15. doi:10.5194/acp-12-5603-2012
  • Im, U., R. Bianconi, E. Solazzo, I. Kioutsioukis, A. Badia, A. Balzarini, R. Baro, R. Bellasio, D. Brunner, C. Chemel, G. Curci, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, L. Giordano, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, M. Hirtl, A. Hodzic, L. Honzak, O. Jorba, C. Knote, J.J.P. Kuenen, P.A. Makar, A. Manders-Groot, L. Neal, J.L. Perez, G. Pirovano, G. Pouliot, R. San Jose, N. Savage, W. Schroder, R.S. Sokhi, D. Syrakov, A. Torian, P. Tuccella, K. Werhahn, R. Wolke, K. Yahya, R. Zabkar, Y. Zhang, J. Zhang, J., C. Hogrefe, and S. Galmarini. 2015. Evaluation of operational online-coupled regional air quality models over Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII phase 2. Part I: Ozone. Atmos. Environ. 115:404–20. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.042
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, ed. R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
  • Jaffe, D., and N. Wigder. 2012. Ozone production from wildfires: A critical review. Atmos. Environ. 51:1–10. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.063
  • Kaiser, J. W., A. Heil, M. O. Andreae, A. Benedetti, N. Chubarova, L. Jones, J-J. Morcrette, M. Razinger, M.G. Schultz, M. Suttie, and G.R. van der Werf. 2012. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power. Biogeosciences 9:527–54. doi:10.5194/bg-9-527-2012
  • Kukkonen, J., T. Olsson, D.M. Schultz, A. Baklanov, T. Klein, A.I. Miranda, A. Monteiro, M. Hirtl, V. Tarvainen, M. Boy, V.-H. Peuch, A. Poupkou, I. Kioutsioukis, S. Finardi, M. Sofiev, R. Sokhi, K.E.J. Lehtinen, K. Karatzas, R. San José, M. Astitha, G. Kallos, M. Schaap, E. Reimer, H. Jakobs, and K. Eben. 2012. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12:1–87. doi:10.5194/acp-12-1-2012
  • Larkin, N.K., S.M. O’Neill, R. Solomon, S. Raffuse, T. Strand, D. Sullivan, C. Krull, M. Rorig, J. Peterson, and S.A. Ferguson. 2009, The BlueSky smoke modeling framework. Int. J. Wildland Fire 18:906–20. doi:10.1071/WF07086
  • Lee, B.S., M.E. Alexander, B.C. Hawkes, T.J. Lynham, B.J. Stocks, and P. Englefield. 2002. Information systems in support of wildland fire management decision-making in Canada. Comput. Electron. Agric. 37:185–98. doi:10.1016/S0168-1699(02)00120-5
  • Liu Y., S.L. Goodrick, and J.A. Stanturf. 2013. Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario. For. Ecol. Manage. 294:120–35. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.049
  • Liu J.C., G. Pereira, S.A. Uhl, M.A. Bravo, and M.L. Bell. 2015. A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke, Environ. Res. (136):120–32. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2014.10.015
  • Lurmann, F.W., and W.R. Stockwell. 1989. Intercomparison of the ADOM and RADM gas-phase chemical mechanisms. Electrical Power Research Institute Topical Report. Palo Alto, CA: EPRI.
  • Mahfouf, J.-F., B. Brasnett, and S. Gagnon. 2007. A Canadian precipitation analysis (CaPA) project: Description and preliminary results. Atmos. Ocean 45:1–17. doi:10.3137/ao.v450101
  • Makar, P.A., W. Gong, C. Mooney, J. Zhang, D. Davignon, M. Samaali, M.D. Moran, H. He, D.W. Tarasick, D. Sills, and J. Chen. 2010. Dynamic adjustment of climatological ozone boundary conditions for air-quality forecasts. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10(8): 997–1015. doi:10.5194/acpd-10-13643-2010
  • Mason, I. 2003. Binary events. In Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science, ed. I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson, 37–76. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Mathur, R. 2008. Estimating the impact of the 2004 Alaskan forest fires on episodic particulate matter pollution over the eastern United States through assimilation of satellite-derived aerosol optical depths in a regional air quality model. J. Geophys. Res. 113:D17302. doi:10.1029/2007JD009767
  • Miller, S.R. 2015. Using prescribed fire to reduce the risk of smoke related traffic problems on I-95. In Proceedings of The Large Wildland Fires Conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73, ed. R.E. Keane, M. Jolly R. Parsons, and K. Riley, 163–67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
  • Miller, D.J., K. Sun, M.A. Zondlo, D. Kanter, O. Dubovik, E.J. Welton, D.M. Winker, and P. Ginoux. 2011. Assessing boreal forest fire smoke aerosol impacts on U.S. air quality: A case study using multiple data sets. J. Geophys. Res. 116:D22209. doi:10.1029/2011JD0161
  • Moran, M.D., S. Ménard, R. Pavlovic, D. Anselmo, S. Antonopoulos, P.A. Makar, W. Gong, C. Stroud, J. Zhang, Q. Zheng, A. Robichaud, H. Landry, P.-A. Beaulieu, S. Gilbert, J. Chen, and A. Kallaur. 2012. Recent advances in Canada’s National Operational AQ Forecasting System. Proc. 32nd NATO/SPS ITM on Air Pollution Modelling and Its Application, 7–11 May 2012, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 215–20.
  • Moran, M., Q. Zheng, J. Zhang, and R. Pavlovic. 2015. RAQDPS version 013: Upgrades to the CMC Operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. June. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/product_guide/docs/lib/op_systems/doc_opchanges/ (accessed December 2, 2015)
  • Riccardi, C.L., S.J. Prichard, D.V. Sandberg, and R.D. Ottmar. 2007. Quantifying physical characteristics of wildland fuels using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System. Can. J. Forest Res. 37(12): 2413–20. doi:10.1139/X07-175
  • Robichaud, A., and R. Ménard. 2014. Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14:1769–800, doi:10.5194/acp-14-1769-2014
  • Rolph, G.D., R.R. Draxler, A.F. Stein, A.Taylor, M.G. Ruminski, S.Kondragunta, J. Zeng, H-C. Huang, G. Manikin, J.T. McQueen, and P.M. Davidson. 2009. Description and verification of the NOAA smoke forecasting system: The 2007 fire season. Weather Forecast. 24(2): 361–78. doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222165.1
  • Saide, P. E., D. Peterson, D., A. da Silva, B. Anderson, L. D. Ziemba, G. Diskin, G. Sachse, J. Hair, C. Butler, M. Fenn, J. L. Jimenez, P. Campuzano-Jost, A. Perring, J. Schwarz, M. Z. Markovic, P. Russell, J. Redemann, Y. Shinozuka, D. G. Streets, F. Yan, J. Dibb, R. Yokelson, O. B. Toon, E. Hyer, and G.R. Carmichael. 2015. Revealing important nocturnal and day-to-day variations in fire smoke emissions through a novel multiplatform inversion, Geophys. Res. Lett. 42:3609–18, doi:10.1002/2015GL063737, 2015
  • Schigas, R., and R. Stull. 2013. BlueSky Canada Part 3—BlueSky Canada wildfire smoke: Status at UBC. Can. Smoke Newslett. 2013:29–32.
  • Sessions, W.R., H.E. Fuelberg, R.A. Kahn, and D.M. Winker. 2011. An investigation of methods for injecting emissions from boreal wildfires using WRF-Chem during ARCTAS. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11:5719–44. doi:10.5194/acp-11-5719-2011
  • Simpson, B., P. Englefield, and K. Anderson. 2010. Fuel-type mapping for the CWFIS: Past, present, and future. Can. Smoke Newslett. Spring/Summer:4–9.
  • Spracklen, D.V., L.J. Mickley, J.A. Logan, R.C. Hudman, R. Yevich, M.D. Flannigan, and A.L. Westerling. 2009. Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. J. Geophys. Res. 114:D20301. doi:10.1029/2008JD010966
  • Stajner, I., P. Davidson, D. Byun, J. McQueen, R. Draxler, P. Dickerson, and J. Meagher. 2012. U.S. national air quality forecast capability: expanding coverage to include particulate matter. Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXI, 379–84. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.
  • Stanski R.H., L.J. Wilson, and W.R. Burrows, 1989. Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. Atmospheric Research, Environment Canada. Research Report no. (MSRB) 89-5. www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/Stanski_et…/Stanski_et_al.html
  • Stieb, D.M., R.T. Burnett, M. Smith-Doiron, O. Brion, H. Hyun Shin, and V. Economou. 2008. A new multipollutant, no-threshold air quality health index based on short-term associations observed in daily time-series analyses. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 58:435–501. doi:10.3155-1047-3289.58.3.435
  • Stocks, B.J, B.D. Lawson, M.E. Alexander, C.E. Van Wagner, R.S. McAlpine R.S., T.J. Lynham, and D.E. Dubé. 1989. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: An overview. For. Chron. 65: 450–57. doi:10.5558/tfc65258-4
  • Van Wagner C.E. 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Technology Report 35.
  • Wang X., D.K. Thompson, G.A. Marshall, C. Tymstra, R. Carr, and M.D. Flannigan. 2015. Increasing frequency of extreme fire weather in Canada with climate change. Climatic Change 30(4): 573–86. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1375-5
  • Western Regional Air Partnership. 2005. 2002 Fire Emission Inventory for the WRAP Region—Phase II, Project No. 178-6. http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/documents/WRAP_2002_PhII_EI_Report_20050722.pdf (accessed December 2, 2015).
  • Wiedinmyer, C., S.K. Akagi, R.J. Yokelson, L.K. Emmons, J.A. Al-Saadi, J.J. Orlando, and A.J. Soja. 2011. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): A high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning. Geosci. Model Dev. 4:625–41. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-625-2011
  • Wilson, L.J., and M. Vallée. 2002. The Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system: design and development tests. Weather Forecast. 17:206–22. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0206: TCUMOS>2.0.CO;2
  • Wise, E.K. 2008. Meteorologically influenced wildfire impacts on urban particulate matter and visibility in Tucson, Arizona, USA. Int. J. Wildland Fire 17:214–23. doi:10.1071/WF06111
  • Zhang, Y., M. Bocquet, V. Mallet, C. Seigneur, and A. Baklanov. 2012a. Real-time air quality forecasting, part I: History, techniques, and current status. Atmos. Environ. 60:632–55. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.031
  • Zhang, Y., M. Bocquet, V. Mallet, C. Seigneur, and A. Baklanov. 2012b. Real-time air quality forecasting, part II: State of the science, current research needs, and future prospects. Atmos. Environ. 60:656–76. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.041
  • Zhang, X., S. Kondragunta, J. Ram, C. Schmidt, and H.-C. Huang. 2012c. Near-real-time global biomass burning emissions product from geostationary satellite constellation, J. Geophys. Res. 117:D14201. doi:10.1029/2012JD017459