On the (Non-)sustainability of China’s Development Strategies¹

References

• Alesina, A. & Drazen, A. (1991). Why are stabilizations delayed? American Economic Review, 81(5), 1170–1188.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aziz, J. (2006). Rebalancing China’s Economy: What does growth theory tell us? IMF Working Paper, 291. doi:10.5089/9781451865516.001
   Google Scholar
• Aziz, J., & Cui, L. (2007). Explaining China’s low consumption: The neglected role of household income. IMF Working Paper WP/07/181. doi:10.5089/9781451867459.001
   Google Scholar
• Berger, W., & Wagner, H. (2000). Ursachen und Erklärungen der Asienkrise [Causes and explanations of the Asian crisis]. Discussion paper no. 286, Department of Economics, University of Hagen.
   Google Scholar
• BIS. (2016). International banking and financial market developments. BIS quarterly review 9/16.
   Google Scholar
• Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2005). Rebalancing growth in China: A three-handed approach. CEPR Discussion Paper, 5403.
   Google Scholar
• Bondt, G. J., Peltonen, T. A., & Santabárbara, D. (2011). Booms and busts in China’s stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals. Applied Financial Economics, 21, 287–300. doi:10.1080/09603107.2010.530218
   Google Scholar
• Bowles, P. (2012). Rebalancing China’s growth: Some unsettled questions. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 33(1), 1–13. doi:10.1080/02255189.2012.660874
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bradsher, K. (2017). China economic reform: Xi Jinping's track record. The New York Times, 4 March 2017. Online available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/business/china-xi-jinping-economic-reformscorecard.html.
   Google Scholar
• Brecht, B., & Lucchesi, J. (2005). Die Dreigroschenoper: Der Erstdruck 1928 [The Threepenny Opera: The first edition 1928]. Suhrkamp: Frankfurt am Main.
   Google Scholar
• Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University. (2015). China’s macroeconomic outlook – Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, March 2015. Current Chinese Economic Report Series, Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Chan, H.S. & Gao, J. (2008). Performance measurement in Chinese local governments [with translated documents]. Chinese Law and Government, 41(2-3), 4–111. doi:10.2753/CLG0009-4609410200
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, A. H., & Warren, J. (2011). Sustainable growth for China. The Chinese Economy, 44(5), 86–103. doi:10.2753/CES1097-1475440505
   Google Scholar
• Coe, D., & Helpman, E. (1995). International R&D spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859–887.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Das, D. K. (2012). The Chinese economy. The Chinese Economy, 45(4), 7–38. doi:10.2753/CES1097-1475450401
   Google Scholar
• Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Wang, H., & Wheeler, D. (2002). Confronting the environmental Kuznets curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1), 147–168. doi:10.1257/0895330027157
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davies, K. (2013). China Investment Policy: An update, OECD Working Papers on International Investment, 2013/01, OECD Publishing. doi:10.1787/5k469l1hmvbt-en
   Google Scholar
• Derbali, A. (2017). Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: Measuring and ranking. The Chinese Economy, 50(1), 34–58. doi:10.1080/10971475.2016.1211904
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engel, E. (1857). Die Productions- und Consumptionsverhältnisse des Königreichs Sachsen. Zeitschrift des Statistischen Büreaus des Königlich Sächsischen Ministeriums des Inneren 8/9.
   Google Scholar
• European Chamber (EUCCC). (2016). Overcapacity in China – An impediment to the party’s reform agenda. European Union Chamber of Commerce in China: Beijing.
   Google Scholar
• Falvey, R., Foster, N., & Greenaway, D. (2002). North-South trade, knowledge spillovers and growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(4), 650–670. doi:10.11130/jei.2002.17.4.650
   Google Scholar
• Fischer, D. (2016). Economic reforms in China and the one belt, one road strategy - Theoretical debates and policy concepts. Paper presented at the Chinese Economic Association Annual Conference 2016 (Session Group 5, “The One Belt, One Road Initiative 7”, 1st – 3rd September 2016, Duisburg.
   Google Scholar
• Front News. (2017). Xi Jinping said about common points in the development strategies of Russia and China. https://frontnews.eu/news/en/6168/Xi-Jinping-said-about-common-points-in-the-development-strategies-of-Russia-and-China.
   Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2016). The middle-income trap - definitions, theories and countries concerned: A literature survey. Comparative Economic Studies, 58(4), 507–538. doi:10.1057/s41294-016-0014-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2017). China in the middle-income trap? Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper No. 749. Tokyo: ADBI. Forthcoming in: China Economic Review (2019). doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.003
   Google Scholar
• Han, P.-C. (2013). Confucian leadership and the rising Chinese economy. The Chinese Economy, 46(2), 107–127. doi:10.2753/CES1097-1475460205
   Google Scholar
• Hasan, I., Wachtel, P., & Zhou, M. (2009). Institutional development, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33(1), 157–170. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.11.016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hirshman, A. (1958). The strategy of economic development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2016). The People’s Republic of China: 2016 Article IV Consultation – Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China. IMF Country Report No. 16/270.
   Google Scholar
• Jones, C. I. & Klenow, P. J. (2016). Beyond GDP? Welfare across countries and time. American Economic Review, 106(9), 2426–2457.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kim, J., Park, D., Murach, M., & Wagner, H. (2018). Avoiding the middle-income trap: Korean lessons for China? CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 14: Center for East-Asia Macroeconomic Studies.
   Google Scholar
• Knight, J. B. (2014). China as a developmental state. The World Economy, 37(10), 1335–1347. doi:10.1111/twec.12215
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mohr, B., & Wagner, H. (2013). A structural approach to financial stability: On the beneficial role of regulatory governance. Journal of Governance and Regulation, 2(1), 7–26.
   Google Scholar
• Lim, T. W., Chan, H. H. L., Tseng, K. H.-Y., and Lim, W. X. (Eds.). (2016). China’s Belt and Road Initiative. London: Imperial College Press.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, J. Y., G. Wan, & Morgan, P. J. (2016). Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC. Journal of Comparative Economics, 44, 842–853.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murach, M., & Wagner, H. (2017). How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by structural change be? – An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 15(3), 269–287. doi:10.1080/14765284.2017.1346930
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nathan, A. (2016). Who is Xi? New York: New York Review of Books, May 12th Issue.
   Google Scholar
• Naughton, B. (2017). Is China socialist? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1), 3–24. doi:10.1257/jep.31.1.3
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China). (1997–2016). China statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistic Press, National Bureau of Statistics of China.
   Google Scholar
• New Capital Post. (2014). State Council Announces Deepening of Fiscal Reform; Local Government Debt to Be Included as Political Success Indicator [In Chinese]. http://finance.china.com.cn/money/bond/zqzx/20141009/2714779.shtml.
   Google Scholar
• Prasad, E. (2009). Rebalancing growth in Asia. IZA Discussion Papers, 4298.
   Google Scholar
• Shambaugh, D. (2016). China’s future polity. Cambridge: Malden.
   Google Scholar
• Shepard, W. (2015). Ghost Cities of China. London: Zed Books.
   Google Scholar
• Söderlund, B., & Tingvall, P. G. (2016). Capital freedom, financial development and provincial growth in China. World Economy, 40(4), 764–787. doi:10.1111/twec.12391
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sørensen, C. T. N. (2015). The Significance of Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” for Chinese Foreign Policy: From “Tao Guang Yang Hui” to “Fen Fa You Wei.” Journal of China and International Relations, 3(1), 53–73.
   Google Scholar
• Summers, L. H. (2014). Reflection on the ‘new secular stagnation hypothesis’. In C. Teulings and R. Baldwin (Eds.). Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures. London: CEPR Press.
   Google Scholar
• United Nations. (2015). World Population Ageing 2015. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2013). Challenges to China’s policy: Structural change. Comparative Economic Studies, 55(4), 721–736. doi:10.1057/ces.2013.22
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2015). Structural change and mid-income trap—Under which conditions can China succeed in moving towards higher income status? European Journal of Comparative Economics, 12(2), 165–188.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2017a). The building up of new imbalances in China: The dilemma with ‘rebalancing’. International Economics and Economic Policy, 14(4), 701–722. doi:10.1007/s10368-016-0360-4
   Google Scholar
• Wagner, H. (2017b). On the (Non-)sustainability of China’s development strategies. (Longer Version) SSRN Paper No. 2946768 (see also CEAMeS-Discussion Paper No, 6: Center for East-Asia Macroeconomic Studies).
   Google Scholar
• Wang, Y. (2016). The Belt and road initiative. What will China offer the world in its rise. Beijing: New World Press.
   Google Scholar
• Wei, S.-J., Xie, Z., & Zhang, X. (2017). From ‘Made in China’ to ‘Innovated in China’: Necessity, prospect, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(1), 49–70. doi:10.1257/jep.31.1.49
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wei, W. (2016). Rural Poverty Declined by 14.42 million in 2015 [in Chinese]. From State Council Poverty Alleviation and Development Leadership Group, February 29, 2016. Accessed May 24, 2016, from http://www.cpad.gov.cn/art/2016/2/29/art_50_45702.html.
   Google Scholar
• Whiting, S. H. (2001). Power and wealth in rural China: The political economy of institutional change. New York: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• World Bank. (2017). World development indicators (WDI). Washington, DC: World Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Yuan, P.-H. (2017). Trade strategy adjustment of China after the financial crisis. The Chinese Economy, 50(2), 112–118. doi:10.1080/10971475.2016.1227171
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, L. (2016). Rebalancing in China–Progress and Prospects. IMF Working Paper 16/183. doi:10.5089/9781475532937.001
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, C., Kang, R., & Feng, C. (2016). Financial vulnerability, capital shocks and economic growth: Evidence from China (2005–2014). European Journal of Business Science and Technology, 2(1), 23–31. doi:10.11118/ejobsat.v2i1.56
   Google Scholar
• Zheng, J., Bigsten, A., & Hu, A. (2009). Can China’s growth be sustained? A productivity perspective. World Development, 37(4), 874–888. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.07.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zheng, S., Kahn, M. E., Sun, W., & Luo, D. (2014). Incentives for China’s urban mayors to mitigate pollution externalities: The role of the central government and public environmentalism. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 47(C), 61–71. doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.09.003
   Google Scholar
• Zhu, C., & Wan, G. (2012). Rising inequality in China and the move to a balanced economy. China & World Economy, 20(1), 83–104. doi:10.1111/j.1749-124X.2012.01274.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zilibotti, F. (2016). Growing and Slowing Down Like China. Presentation EEA their 31st Annual Congress – Presidential Address, Geneva, August 24, 2016. https://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwi2_s6szNPSAhXEPxoKHantBc0QFggcMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ubscenter.uzh.ch%2Fassets%2Fdocuments%2F20160905_Slides_Zilibotti.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFs_0po05wPfZcjaNdt_UrkcnAFpg&cad=rja.
   Google Scholar