Public debt’s predictors in EU: evidence from members and non-members of European Monetary Union

References

• Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J. T., & Stanek, P. (2019). Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union. The World Economy, 42(2), 320–348. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12709
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aguinis, H., Gottfredson, R., & Joo, H. (2013). Best-practice recommendations for defining, identifying, and handling outliers. Organizational Research Methods, 16(2), 270–301. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428112470848
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M., & Jinjarak, Y. (2013). What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 37–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.11.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alcidi, C., Belke, A., Giovannini, A., & Gros, D. (2016). Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the Euro area: An overall assessment. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(3), 345–358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0350-6
   Google Scholar
• Alvarado, R., Iniguez, M., & Ponce, P. (2017). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Latin America. Economic Analysis and Policy, 56, 176–187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2017.09.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson, D., Willisams, T., Camm, J., & Cochran, J. (2014). Statistics for business & economics (12th ed.). Cengage Learning.
   Google Scholar
• Bakker, B. B., Dell’Ariccia, G., Laeven, L., Vandenbussche, J., O’Igan, D., & Tong, H. (2012). Policies for Macrofinancial stability: How to deal with Credit Boom. International Monetary Fund. 12/06. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504743.006
   Google Scholar
• Baldacci, E., & Kumar, M. (2010). Fiscal deficits, public debt and sovereign bond yields. International Monetary Fund. 10/184. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455202188.001
   Google Scholar
• Banociova, A., & Martinkova, S. (2017). Active labour market policies of selected European countries and their competitiveness. Journal of Competitiveness, 9(3), 5–21. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2017.03.01
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barrios, S., Langedijk, S., & Pench, L. (2010). EU Fiscal Consolidation after the Financial Crisis Lessons from Past Experiences. Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs, European Commission, European Economy - Economic Papers, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1985234.
   Google Scholar
• Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C., & Rother, P. (2013). Debt and growth, new evidence for the Euro Area. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 809–821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.07.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baunsgaard, T., & Keen, M. (2005). Tax Revenue and (or?) Trade Liberalization. International Monetary Fund. 05/112. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451861310.001
   Google Scholar
• Bayar, Y., & Sasmaz, M. U. (2019). Foreign borrowing, foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth in European Union transition economies. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 10(2), 107–125.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Belke, A., Gros, D., & Osowski, T. (2017). The effectiveness of the FED’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73(B), 335–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bordens, K., & Abbott, B. (2008). Research design and methods: A process approach (8th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
   Google Scholar
• Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory econometrics for finance (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bryman, A. (2012). Social research methods (4th ed.). Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Caporale, G. M., & Girardi, A. (2013). Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area. Journal of International Money and Finance, 38, 84.e1–84.e16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2019). Riding the wave of credit: Are longer expansions really a bad Omen? Open Economies Review, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-019-09570-6.
   Google Scholar
• Cerda, R., Fuentes, R., Garcia, G., & Llodra, J. I. (2020). Understanding domestic savings: An empirical approach. Applied Economics, 52(9), 905–928. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1646871
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636–649. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-008-0043-0
   Google Scholar
• Cherif, R., & Hasanov, F. (2012). Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks. International Monetary Fund. 12/230.
   Google Scholar
• Clogg, C., Petkova, E., & Haritou, A. (1995). Statistical methods for comparing regression coefficients between models. American Journal of Sociology, 100(5), 1261–1293. https://doi.org/10.1086/230638
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crotty, J. (2009). Structural causes of the global fi nancial crisis: a critical assessment of the ‘new fi nancial’ architecture. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 563–580. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep023
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Das, P. (2019). Econometrics in theory and practice: Analysis of cross section, time series and panel data with Stata 15.1. Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Dell’Ariccia, G., Rabanal, P., & Sandri, D. (2018). Unconventional monetary policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4), 147–172. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.4.147
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dritsakis, N., & Stamatiou, P. (2016). Causal nexus between government debt, exports and economic growth for three Eurozone countries: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics and Public Finance, 3(1), 47–65. https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v3n1p47
   Google Scholar
• Eurostat (2019). Exchange rates and interest rates - Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Exchange_rates_and_interest_rates&oldid=434044#Interest_rates
   Google Scholar
• Fitzmaurice, G., Laird, N., & Ware, J. (2011). Applied longitudinal analysis (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Focardi, S., & Fabozzi, F. (2004). The mathematics of financial modeling and investment management. John Willey & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Gali, J., & Perotti, R. (2003). Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe. Economic Policy, 18(37), 533–572. ), https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.00115_1
   Google Scholar
• Galinski, P. (2015). Determinants of debt limits in local governments: Case of Poland. Procedia -Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 376–382.
   Google Scholar
• Gargouri, I., & Ksantini, M. (2016). The determinants of public debt. The Romanian Economic Journal, 18(59), 111–124.
   Google Scholar
• Globan, T., & Matosec, M. (2016). Public debt-to-GDP ratio in New EU member states: Cut the numerator or increase the denominator? Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 19(3), 57–72.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gomez-Gonzalez, P. (2019). Inflation-linked public debt in emerging economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 93, 313–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gorton, G. B., Ordonez, G. (2016). Good booms, bad booms. NBER Working Paper No. w22008.
   Google Scholar
• Gourinchas, P. O., & Obstfeld, M. (2012). Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, (1), 226–265.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Greiner, A. (2011). Economic Growth, Public Debt and Welfare: Comparing Three Budgetary Rules. German Economic Review, 12(2), 205–222. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00516.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
   Google Scholar
• Gurka, M. (2006). Selecting the best linear mixed model under REML. The American Statistician, 60(1), 19–26. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313006X90396
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gyoerk, E. (2017). Economic costs and benefits of EMU membership from the perspective of a non-member. Open Economies Review, 28(5), 893–921. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-017-9466-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haneman, T., Houtari, M. (2018). EU - China FDI: Working towards reciprocity in investment relations, Rhodium Group & MERICS, MERICS Papers of China, No.3, Retrived from: https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2018-08/180723_MERICS-COFDI-Update_final_0.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Hassan, M., & Nassar, R. (2015). Effects of Debt and GDP on the unemployment rate: An empirical study. Journal of International Business Disciplines, 10(2), 52–69.
   Google Scholar
• Heck, R., Thomas, S., & Tabata, L. (2014). Multilevel and longitudinal modeling with IBM SPSS (2nd ed., pp. 55, pp. 165–166). Routledge - Taylor &Francis Group.
   Google Scholar
• Hedeker, D., & Gibbons, R. (2006). Longitudinal data analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Heinemann, F., Osterloh, S., & Kalb, A. (2014). Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture. Journal of International Money and Finance, 41, 110–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.11.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jimborean, R., & Kelber, A. (2017). Foreign direct investment drivers and growth in central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the 2007 global financial crisis. Comparative Economic Studies, 59(1), 23–54. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-016-0018-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnson, W., & Koch, G. (2011). Intraclass correlation coefficient. In: Loveric. M. (eds.) International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
   Google Scholar
• Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2016). Sovereigns versus banks: credit, crises and consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(1), 45–79. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12144
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karafolas, S., & Alexandrakis, A. (2015). Unemployment effects on Greek crisis: A regional examination. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 82–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00010-6
   Google Scholar
• Kirchgässner, G. (2014). On the political economy of public deficit and debt. German Economic Review, 15(1), 116–130. https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12029
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Konishi, S., & Kitagawa, G. (2008). Information criteria and statistical modeling. Springer Science + Business Media.
   Google Scholar
• Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2018). Systemic banking crises revisited. International Monetary Fund. 18/206. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484376379.001
   Google Scholar
• Landau, S., & Everitt, B. (2004). A handbook of statistical analyses using SPSS. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
   Google Scholar
• Lane, P. (2012). The European sovereign debt crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 49–68. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.49
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lane, P. R., & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2011). The cross-country incidence of the global crisis. IMF Economic Review, 59(1), 77–110. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2010.12
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, X. (2016). Methods and applications of longitudinal data analysis. Academic Press - Elsevier.
   Google Scholar
• Lui, A. (2017). Financial stability and prudential regulation: A comparative approach to the UK, US, Canada, Australia and Germany. Rotledge - Taylor & Francis Group.
   Google Scholar
• Luo, H., & Golembiewski, R. (1997). Budget deficit in China: Calculations, causes and impacts. In R.T. Golembiewski & J. Rabin, (Eds.), Public Budgeting and Finance (4th ed.). Marcel Dekker - CRC Press.
   Google Scholar
• Marelli, E., & Signorelli, S. (2015). Convergence, crisis and unemployment in Europe: The need for innovative policies. Croatian Economic Survey, 17(2), 5–56. https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.17.2.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marie, L., & Alina, D. (2019). The fight against unemployment. Brussels: European Parliamentary Research Service, PE 630.274,
   Google Scholar
• Martínez-Molina, S., Cotanda, E. V., & Ferrer, J. G. (2016). Labour Resilience and vulnerable groups in times of crisis: A comparative study in eleven European countries. European Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 6(1), 111–128. https://doi.org/10.26417/ejes.v6i1.p111-128
   Google Scholar
• Mazier, J., & Petit, P. (2013). In search of sustainable paths for the Eurozone in the troubled post-2008 world. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(3), 513–532. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bet012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meinusch, A., & Tillmann, P. (2016). The macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks. Journal of Macroeconomics, 47(A), 58–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.11.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mencinger, J., Aristovnik, A., & Verbic, M. (2014). The impact of growing public debt on economic growth in the European Union. Amfiteatru Economic Journal, 16(35), 403–414.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyers, L., Gamst, G., & Guarino, A. (2013). Performing data analysis using IBM SPSS. John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Mickey, R., Dunn, O., & Clark, V. (2004). Applied statistics: Analysis of variance and regression. John Willey & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Neaime, S., Gaysset, I., & Badra, N. (2018). The Eurozone debt crisis: A structural VAR approach. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 22–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.08.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ogawa, K., Sterken, E., & Tokutsu, I. (2016). Public debt, economic growth and the real interest rate: a panel VAR approach to EU and OECD Countries. The Institute of Social and Economic Research. No. 955.
   Google Scholar
• Okafor, L. E., & Tyrowicz, J. (2009). Foreign debt and domestic savings in developing countries. Latin American Business Review, 9(3-4), 189–226. https://doi.org/10.1080/10978520902813256
   Google Scholar
• Okafor, L. E., & Tyrowicz, J. (2010). Saving less when there is more foreign lending? Foreign debt and savings in developing countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 13(3), 213–223. https://doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2010.503081
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Onafowora, O., & Owoye, O. (2019). Public debt, foreign direct investment and economic growth dynamics: Empirical evidence from the Caribbean. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(5), 769–791. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-01-2018-0050
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ono, T. (2019). Growth, Unemployment, and Fiscal Policy: A political economy analysis. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(8), 3099–3139. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100517001067
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Paczoski, A., Abebe, T., & Cirella, G. (2019). Debt and deficit growth rate reporting for post-communist European union member states. Social Science MDPI, 8(6), 1–17.
   Google Scholar
• Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2013). Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149(2), 175–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03399388
   Google Scholar
• Paternoster, R., Brame, R., Mazerolle, P., & Piquero, A. (1998). Using the correct statistical test for the equality of regression coefficients. Criminology, 36(4), 859–866. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01268.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pechova, A. (2012). Legitimising discourses in the framework of European integration: The politics of Euro adoption in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Review of International Political Economy, 19(5), 779–807. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2011.633477
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pirtea, M. G., Nicolescu, A. C., & Mota, P. R. (2013). An empirical study on public debt’s determinants: evidence from Romania. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 38(E/2013), 144–157.
   Google Scholar
• Rachev, S., Hochstotter, M., Fabozzi, F., & Focardi, S. (2010). Probability and Statistics for finance. John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic polices. Economic Modelling, 38, 204–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.12.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). The aftermath of financial crises. American Economic Review, 99(2), 466–472. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.466
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573–578. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C., & Rogoff, K. (2011). From financial crash to debt crisis. American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676–1706. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.5.1676
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., & Sbrancia, M. B. (2015). The liquidation of government debt. Economic Policy, 30(82), 291–333. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiv003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Santos, P. G., Ribeiro, A. P., Carvalho, V. M. ( (2013). ). Export-led growth in Europe: where and what to export?. FEP Working Papers 479, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
   Google Scholar
• Schafer, H. B. (2012). The sovereign debt crisis in Europe, save banks not states. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 9(2), 179–195.
   Google Scholar
• Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012). Credit booms gone bust: Monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870-2008. American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029–1061. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.2.1029
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shrout, P., & Fleiss, J. (1979). Intraclass correlations: Uses in assessing rater reliability. Psychological Bulletin, 86(2), 420–428. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.86.2.420
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simionescu, M. (2016). The relation between economic growth and foreign direct investment during the economic crisis in the European Union. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za Ekonomsku Teoriju i Praksu / Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business, 34(1), 187–213. https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2016.1.187
   Google Scholar
• Škare, M., & Rabar, D. (2017). Measuring sources of economic growth in OECD countries. Engineering Economics, 28(4), 386–400. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.28.4.18502
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Snijders, T., & Bosker, R. (2003). Multilevel analysis: An introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modeling (pp. 120–121). SAGE Publications..
   Google Scholar
• Spilioti, S., & Vamvoukas, G. (2015). The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(1), 34–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2014.10.001
   Google Scholar
• Swamy, V. (2015). Government debt and its macroeconomic determinants: An empirical investigation. MPRA Paper, No. 64106.
   Google Scholar
• The World Bank Database (2019). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator.
   Google Scholar
• Vehkalahti, K., & Everitt, B. (2019). Multivariate analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd Ed.). CRC Press - Taylor & Francis Group.
   Google Scholar
• Verma, J., & Abdel-Salam, A. (2019). Testing statistical assumptions in research. JohnWiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• West, B., Welch, K., & Galecki, A. (2015). Linear mixed models: A practical guide using statistical software. CRC Press - Taylor & Francis Group.
   Google Scholar