References
- Aaronson, S. R., Daly, M. C., Wascher, W. L., & Wilcox, D. W. (2019). Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2019(1), 333–404. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0004
- Akdoğan, K. (2017). Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe. Empirical Economics, 53(4), 1415–1440. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1171-8
- Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., Lippi, F. (2021). A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown. American Economic Review: Insights, forthcoming, 1–24, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20200201&&from=f
- Amior, M., & Manning, A. (2018). The persistence of local joblessness. American Economic Review, 108(7), 1942–1970. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160575
- Atkeson, A. (2020). What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? rough estimates of disease scenarios [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 26867]. NBER.
- Austin, B. A., Glaeser, E. L., & Summers, L. H. (2018). Jobs for the Heartland: Place-based policies in 21st century America. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018(1), 151–232. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2018.0002
- Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 834–862. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa009
- Ball, L. (2009). Hysteresis in unemployment: Old and new evidence [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 14818]. NBER.
- Ball, L. (2014). Long-term damage from the great recession in OECD countries. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 11(2), 149–160.
- Blanchard, O. J. (2018). Should we reject the natural rate hypothesis? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1), 97–120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.1.97
- Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. Nber Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15–90. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/654013
- Cajner, T., Crane, L. D., Decker, R. A., Grigsby, J., Hamins-Puertolas, A., Hurst, E., Kurz, C., & Yildirmaz, A. (2020). The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27159]. NBER.
- Canarella, G., Gupta, R., Miller, S. M., & Pollard, S. K. (2019). Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: Exploring the metropolitan evidence. Empirical Economics, 56(1), 61–79. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1361-z
- Chang, T. (2011). Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function. Economic Modelling, 28(5), 2208–2214. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.002
- Cheng, K. M., Durmaz, N., Kim, H., & Stern, M. L. (2012). Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 428–434. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.012
- Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stepner, M., & Opportunity Insights Team. (2020). How did COVID-19 and stabilisation policies affect spending and employment? A new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27431]. NBER.
- Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020a). Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis: A preliminary view [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27017]. NBER.
- Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020b). The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27141]. NBER.
- Cowan, B. W. (2020). Short-run effects of COVID-19 on US worker transitions [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27315]. NBER.
- Deming, D., & Kahn, L. B. (2018). Skill requirements across firms and labor markets: Evidence from job postings for professionals. Journal of Labor Economics, 36(S1), S337–S369. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/694106
- Dong, D., Gozgor, G., Lu, Z., & Yan, C. (2021). Personal consumption in the United States during the COVID-19 crisis. Applied Economics, 1–6. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1828808
- Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., & Trabandt, M. (2020). The macroeconomics of epidemics [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 26682]. NBER.
- Fallick, B., & Krolikowski, P. (2018). Hysteresis in employment among disadvantaged workers [Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (FRBC) Working Paper, No. 18–01]. FRBC.
- Fève, P., Hènin, P. Y., & Jolivaldt, P. (1999). Testing for hysteresis: Unemployment persistence and wage adjustment. Empirical Economics, 28(3), 535–552.
- Forsythe, E., Kahn, L. B., Lange, F., & Wiczer, D. G. (2020). Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims. Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104238. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104238
- Fosten, J., & Ghoshray, A. (2011). Dynamic persistence in the unemployment rate of OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 948–954. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.11.007
- Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
- Furuoka, F. (2017). A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis. Empirical Economics, 53(3), 1253–1280. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1164-7
- Gozgor, G. (2020). Global evidence on the determinants of public trust in governments during the COVID-19 [Centre for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute (CESifo) Working Paper, No. 8313]. CESifo.
- Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2020). Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 26981]. NBER.
- Gustavsson, M. J., & Österholm, P. (2007). Does unemployment hysteresis equal employment hysteresis? Economic Record, 83(261), 159–173. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2007.00391.x
- Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., & Webster, S. (2020). Variation in government responses to COVID-19. Oxford University.
- Hall, A. (1994). Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12(4), 461–470.
- Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., & Xiao, B. (2008). A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12, 1–24.
- Kapetanios, G., & Shin, Y. (2008). GLS detrending-based unit root tests in nonlinear STAR and SETAR models. Economics Letters, 100(3), 377–380.
- Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359–379. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00202-6
- Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati, A., & Azam, M. (2020). Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 100838. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.08.021
- Marques, A. M., Lima, G. T., & Troster, V. (2017). Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the great recession. Economic Modelling, 64, 105–116. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.014
- Montenovo, L., Jiang, X., Rojas, F. L., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Determinants of disparities in Covid-19 job losses [National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper, No. 27312]. NBER.
- Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139–162. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5
- Otero, J., & Smith, J. (2017). Response surface models for OLS and GLS detrending-based unit root tests in nonlinear ESTAR models. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 17(3), 704–722. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1701700310
- Røed, K. (1996). Unemployment hysteresis – Macro evidence from 16 OECD countries. Empirical Economics, 21(4), 589–600.
- Røed, K. (2002). Unemployment hysteresis and the natural rate of vacancies. Empirical Economics, 27(4), 687–704. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s001810100110
- Schwert, G. W. (1989). Tests for unit roots: A Monte Carlo investigation. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7(2), 147–159.
- Song, F. M., & Yangru, W. (1997). Hysteresis in unemployment evidence from 48 US states. Economic Inquiry, 35(2), 235–243. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1997.tb01906.x
- Yagan, D. (2019). Employment hysteresis from the great recession. Journal of Political Economy, 127(5), 2505–2558. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/701809