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Original Articles

Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach

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Pages 229-233 | Published online: 01 Feb 2008

References

  • Abiad, A. (2003) Early-warning systems: a survey and a regime-switching approach, IMF Working Paper No. WP/03/32, 1–59, IMF, Washington, DC
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  • Amstad , M. and Etter , R. 2000 . “ Signalling bottlenecks/overcapacities and low/high dynamics: a new approach to indicate changes in business cycles in the manufacturing industry using Markov switching models on business survey indicators ” . In CIRET Conference Proceedings , 283 – 305 . Paris : OECD .
  • Batchelor, R. (2001) Confidence indexes and the probability of a recession: a Markov switching model, Indian Economic Review, 36, 107–24; republished in Business Cycles and Economic Growth: An Analysis Using Leading Indicators (Ed.) P. Dua (2004) Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 207–25
  • Hamilton , J. D. 1989 . A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle . Econometrica , 57 : 357 – 84 .
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  • Taylor , K. and McNabb , R. 2007 . Business cycles and the role of confidence: evidence for Europe . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 69 : 185 – 208 .

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