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Applied Economics Letters Volume 24, 2017 - Issue 4
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Articles

Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

R. LehmannIfo Institute, Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys, Munich, GermanyCorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6684-7536
ORCID Icon &
K. WohlrabeIfo Institute, Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys, Munich, Germany
Pages 279-283 | Published online: 02 Jun 2016

References

  • Abberger, K. 2007. “Qualitative Business Surveys and the Assessment of Employment – A Case Study for Germany.” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (2): 249–258. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.10.002.
  • Claveria, O., E. Pons, and R. Ramos. 2007. “Business and Consumer Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (1): 47–69. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.004.
  • Delfs, S., C. Hutter, K. Schmidt, and E. Weber. 2013. Neuer Frühindikator für die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Startschuss für das IAB-Arbeitsmarktbarometer. Nuremberg:IAB-Kurzbericht 20/2013.
  • Hansen, P. R., A. Lunde, and J. M. Nason. 2011. “The Model Confidence Set.” Econometrica 79 (2): 453–497. doi:10.3982/ECTA5771.
  • Henzel, S. R., and K. Wohlrabe. 2014. “Das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer und der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt.” ifo Schnelldienst 67 (15): 35–40.
  • Hutter, C., and E. Weber. 2015. “Constructing a New Leading Indicator for Unemployment from a Survey among German Employment Agencies.” Applied Economics 47 (33): 3540–3558. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1018672.
  • Lehmann, R., and A. Weyh. Forthcoming. “Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?.” Journal of Business Cycle Research.
  • Martinsen, K., F. Ravazzolo, and F. Wulfsberg. 2014. “Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Disaggregate Survey Data.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 65–77. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.003.
  • Weber, E., and G. Zika (2013). Labour Market Forecasting – Is Disaggregation Useful? IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2013.

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