References
- Baker, S. R., T. McElroy, and X. S. Sheng. 2018. “Expectation Formation following Large Unexpected Shocks”.
- Batchelor, R., and P. Dua. 1993. “Survey Vs Arch Measures of Inflation Uncertainty.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 55: 341–353.
- Bates, J., and C. Granger. 1969. “The Combination of Forecasts.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 20: 451–468.
- Berge, T. J., and Ò. Jordà. 2011. “Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3: 246–277.
- Bloom, N. 2009. “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks.” Econometrica 77: 623–685.
- Bomberger, W. A. 1996. “Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28: 381–392.
- Bürgi, C. 2016. “What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?” Working Papers 2016-013, George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Bürgi, C., and T. M. Sinclair. 2017. “A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average.” Empirical Economics 53: 101–115.
- Döpke, J., and U. Fritsche. 2006. “When Do Forecasters Disagree? an Assessment of German Growth and Inflation Forecast Dispersion.” International Journal of Forecasting 22: 125–135.
- Driver, C., L. Trapani, and G. Urga. 2013. “On the Use of Cross-sectional Measures of Forecast Uncertainty.” International Journal of Forecasting 29: 367–377.
- Dueker, M. 1997. “Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 79: 41–51.
- Fintzen, D., and H. Stekler. 1999. “Why Did Forecasters Fail to Predict the 1990 Recession?” International Journal of Forecasting 15: 309–323.
- Lahiri, K., and X. Sheng. 2010. “Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25: 514–538.
- Mankiw, N. G., and R. Reis. 2002. “Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117: 4.
- Mboup, F., A. Wurtzel. 2018. “Battle of the Forecasts: Mean Vs. Median as the Survey of Professional Forecastersâ Consensus.” Research Brief, (Q4).
- Ozturk, E., and X. S. Sheng. 2016. “Measuring Global and Country-specific Uncertainty.” Working Paper.
- Patton, A. J., and A. Timmermann. 2010. “Why Do Forecasters Disagree? Lessons from the Term Structure of Cross-sectional Dispersion.” Journal of Monetary Economics 57: 803–820.
- Proan˜o, C. R., and T. Theobald. 2014. “Predicting Recessions with a Composite Real-time Dynamic Probit Model.” International Journal of Forecasting 30: 898–917.
- Sims, C. A. 2003. “Implications of Rational Inattention.” Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3): 665–690. Swiss National Bank/Study Center Gerzensee Conference on Monetary Policy under Incomplete Information.
- Sinclair, T. M., F. Joutz, and H. Stekler. 2010. “Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?” Economics Letters 108: 28–32.
- Zarnowitz, V. 1986. “The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting.” Working Paper 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research.