Advanced search
Publication Cover
Applied Economics Letters Volume 18, 2011 - Issue 7
Submit an article Journal homepage
146
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Mean reversion in the US unemployment rate – evidence from bootstrapped out-of-sample forecasts

Magnus Gustavsson Department of Economics, Uppsala University, 751 20, Uppsala, SwedenCorrespondence[email protected]
&
Pär Österholm National Institute of Economic Research, 103 62, Stockholm, Sweden
Pages 643-646 | Published online: 13 Jan 2011

References

  • Blanchard , O. J. and Summers , L. H. 1986 . Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem . NBER Macroeconomics Annual , 1 : 15 – 78 .
  • Cahuc , P. and Zylberberg , A. 2004 . Labor Economics , Cambridge : MIT Press .
  • Camarero , M. and Tamarit , C. 2004 . Hysteresis versus natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries . Economics Letters , 84 : 413 – 417 .
  • Clark , T. E. 1999 . Finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy . Journal of Forecasting , 18 : 489 – 504 .
  • Clark , T. E. and McCracken , M. W. 2001 . Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models . Journal of Econometrics , 105 : 85 – 110 .
  • Clark , T. E. and McCracken , M. W. 2005 . Evaluating direct multistep forecasts . Econometric Reviews , 24 : 369 – 404 .
  • Diebold , F. X. and Mariano , R. S. 1995 . Comparing predictive accuracy . Journal of Business and Economic statistics , 13 : 253 – 63 .
  • Gustavsson , M. and Österholm , P. 2010 . The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts? . Empirical Economics , 38 : 779 – 92 .
  • Hjalmarsson , E. Should we expect significant out-of-sample results when predicting stock returns? . International Finance Discussion Papers No. 855 . 2006 . Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Kwiatkowski , D. , Phillips , P. C. B. , Schmidt , P. and Shin , Y. 1992 . Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? . Journal of Econometrics , 54 : 159 – 78 .
  • MacDonald , R. and Taylor , M. P. 1992 . Exchange rate economics: a survey . IMF Staff Papers , 39 : 1 – 57 .
  • Maddala , G. S. and Kim , I.-M. 1998 . Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change , Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Mitchell , W. F. 1993 . Testing for unit roots and persistence in OECD unemployment rates . Applied Economics , 25 : 1489 – 501 .
  • OECD . 1997 . Employment Outlook , Paris : OECD .
  • OECD . 1999 . Employment Outlook , Paris : OECD .
  • Papell , D. H. , Murray , C. J. and Ghiblawi , H. 2000 . The Structure of unemployment . Review of Economics and Statistics , 82 : 309 – 315 .
  • Rø , K. 1996 . Unemployment hysteresis . Empirical Economics , 21 : 589 – 600 .
  • Said , S. E. and Dickey , D. A. 1984 . Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving average models of unknown order . Biometrika , 71 : 599 – 607 .
  • Song , F. M. and Wu , Y. 1997 . Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from 48 US states . Economic Inquiry , 35 : 235 – 43 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Order Reprints Request Corporate Permissions

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

Request Academic Permissions

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.

Supercharge Your Next Research Paper: Research and write your next paper with Jenni AI.

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.