Between X and Y: how process tracing contributes to opening the black box of causality

References

• Adcock, R. and Collier, D. (2001), ‘Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research’, American Political Science Review, 95 (3), pp. 529–54. doi: 10.1017/S0003055401003100
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bates, R.H., et al. (eds.) (1998), Analytic Narratives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
   Google Scholar
• Beach, D. and Pedersen, R.B. (2013), Process-Tracing Methods: Foundation and Guidelines (Ann Arbor: University of University of Michigan Press).
   Google Scholar
• Bennett, A. (2008), ‘Process Tracing: A Bayesian Perspective’, in J. Box-Steffensmeier, H.E. Brady, and D. Collier (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodological (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 217–70.
   Google Scholar
• Bennett, A. (2015), ‘Appendix: Discipling our Conjectures: Systematizing Process Tracing with Bayesian Analysis’, in A. Bennett and J.T. Checkel (eds.), Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 276–98.
   Google Scholar
• Bennett, A. and Checkel, J.T. (2015), ‘Process Tracing: From Philosophical Roots to Best Practices’, in A. Bennett and J.T. Checkel (eds.), Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 3–37.
   Google Scholar
• Bennett, A. and Elman, C. (2007), ‘Case Study Methods in the International Relations Subfield’, Comparative Political Studies, 40 (2), pp. 170–95. doi: 10.1177/0010414006296346
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bennett, A. and George, A.L. (1997), Process Tracing in Case Study Research. MacArthur Foundation Workshop on Case Study Methods, October 17–19, 1997. Available from: http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/bea03/index.html.
   Google Scholar
• Blatter, J. and Blume, T. (2008), ‘In Search of Co-variance, Causal Mechanisms or Congruence? Towards a Plural Understanding of Case Studies’, Swiss Political Science Review, 14 (2), pp. 315–56. doi: 10.1002/j.1662-6370.2008.tb00105.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blatter, J. and Haverland, M. (2012), Designing Case Studies: Explanatory Approaches in Small-N Research (Basingstoke: Pagrave Macmillan).
   Google Scholar
• Blatter, J., Janning, F., and Wagemann, C. (2007), Qualitative Politikanalyse. Eine Einführung in Forschungsansätze und Methoden (Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften).
   Google Scholar
• Büthe, T. (2002), ‘Taking Temporality Seriously: Modeling History and the Use of Narratives as Evidence’, American Political Science Review, 96 (3), pp. 481–94. doi: 10.1017/S0003055402000278
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Checkel, J.T. (2005), It's the Process Stupid! Process Tracing in the Study of European and International Politics. Working Paper No. 26, October 2005. Available from: http://ideas.repec.org/p/erp/arenax/p0206.html.
   Google Scholar
• Collier, D. (2010), Process Tracing: Introduction and Exercises. Available from: http://polisci.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/CollierD/Proc%20Trac%20-%20Text%20and%20Story%20-%20Sept%2024.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Collier, D. (2011), ‘Understanding Process Tracing’, PS Political Science & Politics, 44 (4), pp. 823–30. doi: 10.1017/S1049096511001429
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Collier, D., Brady, H.E., and Seawright, J. (2004), ‘Sources of Leverage in Causal Inference: Toward an Alternative View of Methodology’, in H.E. Brady and D. Collier (eds.), Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers), pp. 229–66.
   Google Scholar
• Collier, D., Brady H.E., and Seawright, J. (2010), ‘Sources of Leverage in Causal Inference: Toward an Alternative View of Methodology’, in H.E. Brady and D. Collier (eds.), Rethinking Social Inquiry. Diverse Tools, Shared Standards (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield), pp. 161–99.
   Google Scholar
• Dunning, T. (2015), ‘Improving Process Tracing. The Case of Multi-Method Research’, in A. Bennett and J.T. Checkel (eds.), Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 211–36.
   Google Scholar
• Eckstein, H. (1975), ‘Case Study and Theory in Political Science’, in F.I. Greenstein and N.W. Polsby (eds.), Handbook of Political Science (Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley), pp. 79–138. Reprint 1992 is quoted.
   Google Scholar
• Falleti, T.G. (2006), ‘Theory-Guided Process-Tracing in Comparative Politics: Something Old, Something New’, Newsletter of the Organized Section in Comparative Politics of the American Political Science Association, 17 (1).
   Google Scholar
• Falleti, T.G. and Lynch, J. (2009), ‘Context and Causal Mechanism in Political Analysis’, Comparative Political Studies, 42 (9), pp. 1143–66.
   Google Scholar
• Falleti, T.G. and Mahoney, J. (2015), ‘The Comparative Sequential Method’, in J. Mahoney and K. Thelen (eds), Advances in Comparative Historical Analysis: Resilience, Diversity, and Change (Cambridge: Cambridge UP), pp. 211–39.
   Google Scholar
• Ford, J.K., et al. (1989), ‘Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43 (1), pp. 75–117. doi: 10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• George, A.L. (1979a), ‘Case Studies and Theory Development: The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison’, in P.G. Lauren (ed.), Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy (New York: Free Press), pp. 43–68.
   Google Scholar
• George, A.L. (1979b), ‘The Causal Nexus between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision-Making Behavior: The “Operational Code” Belief System’, in L.S. Falkowski (ed.), Psychological Models in International Politics (Boulder, CO: Westview Press), pp. 95–124.
   Google Scholar
• George, A.L. (1997), The Role of the Congruence Method for Case Study Research. Available from: http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/gea01/index.html.
   Google Scholar
• George, A.L. and Bennett, A. (2005), Case Studies and Theory Development in Social Sciences (Cambridge: MIT Press).
   Google Scholar
• George, A.L. and McKeown, T.J. (1985), ‘Case Studies and Theories of Organizational Decision Making’, in Advances in Information Processing in Organizations, Vol. 2 (Santa Barbara, CA: JAI Press), pp. 21–58.
   Google Scholar
• Gerring, J. (2007), Case Study Research: Principles and Practices (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
   Google Scholar
• Hall, P.A. (2003), ‘Aligning Ontology and Methodology in Comparative Research’, in J. Mahoney and D. Rueschemeyer (eds.), Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 373–404.
   Google Scholar
• Hall, P.A. (2008), ‘Systematic Process Analysis: What it is and how to use it’, European Political Science, 7 (3), pp. 304–17. doi: 10.1057/palgrave.eps.2210130
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hall, P.A. (2013), ‘Tracing the Progress of Process Tracing’, European Political Science, 12 (1), pp. 20–30. doi: 10.1057/eps.2012.6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haverland, M. and Blatter, J. (2012), Two or Three Approaches to Explanatory Case Study Research? APSA 2012 Annual Meeting. Unpublished Paper.
   Google Scholar
• King, G., Keohane, R.O. and Verba, S. (1994), Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
   Google Scholar
• Kreuzer, M. (2010), ‘Historical Knowledge and Quantitative Analysis: The Case of the Origins of Proportional Representation’, American Political Science Review, 104 (2), pp. 369–92. doi: 10.1017/S0003055410000122
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kreuzer, M. and DeFina, R. (2015), Look Before You Leap: Bayesian Process Tracing, Test Strength, and Causal Inference. Paper presented at the Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, Summer Institute, Syracuse University, June 20–21.
   Google Scholar
• Lijphart, A. (1971), ‘Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method’, American Political Science Review, 65 (3), pp. 682–93. doi: 10.2307/1955513
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Little, D. (1995), ‘Causal Explanation in the Social Sciences’, The Southern Journal of Philiosophy, XXXIV (Suppl.), pp. 31–56.
   Google Scholar
• Maggetti, M., Radaelli, C., and Gilardi, F. (2012), Designing Research in the Social Sciences (London: Sage).
   Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. (2001), ‘Beyond Correlational Analysis: Recent Innovations in Theory and Method’, Sociological Forum, 16 (3), pp. 575–93. doi: 10.1023/A:1011912816997
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. (2004), ‘Comparative-historical Methodology’, Annual Review of Sociology, 30, pp. 81–101. doi: 10.1146/annurev.soc.30.012703.110507
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. (2008), ‘Toward a Unified Theory of Causality’, Comparative Political Studies, 41 (4–5), pp. 412–36. doi: 10.1177/0010414007313115
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. (2010), ‘After KKV. The New Methodology of Qualitative Research’, World Politics, 62 (1), pp. 120–47. doi: 10.1017/S0043887109990220
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. (2012), ‘The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in Social Sciences’, Sociological Methods & Research, 41 (4), pp. 570–97. doi: 10.1177/0049124112437709
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. and Goertz, G. (2006), ‘A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research’, Political Analysis, 14 (3), pp. 227–49. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpj017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoney, J. and Goertz, G. (2012), A Tale of Two Cultures. Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
   Google Scholar
• Mayntz, R. (2004), ‘Mechanisms in the Analysis of Social Macro-Phenomena’, Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 34 (2), pp. 237–59. doi: 10.1177/0048393103262552
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mohr, L.B. (1982), Explaining Organizational Behavior (San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass).
   Google Scholar
• Moravscik, A. (2014), ‘Trust, but Verify: The Transparency Revolution and Qualitative International Relations’, Security Studies, 23 (4), pp. 663–88. doi: 10.1080/09636412.2014.970846
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Palier, B. (2005), ‘Ambiguous Agreement, Cumulative Change: French Social Policy in the 1990s’, in K. Thelen and W. Streeck (eds.), Beyond Continuity, Institutional Change in Advanced Political Economies (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 127–44.
   Google Scholar
• Palier, B. (2010), A long Good bye to Bismarck? The Politics of Welfare reforms in Continental Europe (Amsterdam and Chicago: Amsterdam University Press and Chicago University Press).
   Google Scholar
• Rohlfing, I. (2012), Case Studies and Causal Inference: An Integrative Framework Research (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
   Google Scholar
• Schimmelfennig, F. (2006), ‘Prozessanalyse’, in J. Behnke, T. Gschwend, D. Schindler, and K.-U. Schnapp (eds.), Methoden der Politikwissenschaft (Baden-Baden: Nomos, S), pp. 263–71.
   Google Scholar
• Schimmelfennig, F. (2015), ‘Efficient Process Tracing. Analyzing the Causal Mechanisms of European Integration’, in A. Bennett and J.T. Checkel (eds.), Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 98–125.
   Google Scholar
• Steinlin, S. and Trampusch, C. (2012), ‘Institutional Shrinkage: The Deviant Case of Swiss Banking Secrecy’, Regulation & Governance, 6 (2), pp. 242–59. doi: 10.1111/j.1748-5991.2012.01128.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thies, C.G. (2002), ‘A Pragmatic Guide to Qualitative Historical Analysis in the Study of International Relations’, International Studies Perspectives, 3 (4), pp. 351–72. doi: 10.1111/1528-3577.t01-1-00099
   Google Scholar
• Trampusch, C. (2014), ‘Why Preferences and Institutions Change: A Systematic Process Analysis of Credit Rating in Germany’, European Journal of Political Research, 53 (2), pp. 328–44. doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12034
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van de Ven, A.H. and Poole, M.S. (2005), ‘Alternative Approaches for Studying Organizational Change’, Organization Studies, 26 (9), pp. 1377–404. doi: 10.1177/0170840605056907
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Evera, S. (1997), Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University).
   Google Scholar
• Waldner, D. (2012), ‘Process Tracing and Causal Mechanisms’, in H. Kincaid (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 65–84.
   Google Scholar
• Waldner, D. (2015), ‘What Makes Process-tracing Good? Causal Mechanisms, Causal Inference, and the Completeness Standard in Comparative Politics’, in A. Bennett and J.T. Checkel (eds.), Process Tracing in the Social Sciences: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 126–52.
   Google Scholar