312
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Why can’t the drama stop? US–China rivalry and security triangulation on the Korean peninsula

Pages 640-658 | Received 21 Jun 2021, Accepted 09 May 2023, Published online: 20 May 2023

References

  • Alagappa, M. (ed.). (2003). Asian security order: Instrumental and normative features (pp. 33). Stanford University Press.
  • Amable, D. S. (2022). Theorizing the emergence of security regions: An adaptation for the regional security complex theory. Global Studies Quarterly, 2(4), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksac065
  • Anderson, N. D. (2017a). Explaining North Korea's nuclear ambitions: Power and position on the Korean peninsula. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 71(6), 621–641. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2017.1317328
  • Anderson, N. D. (2017b). America's North Korean nuclear trilemma. The Washington Quarterly, 40(4), 153–164. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2017.1406715
  • Anderson, N. D., & Cha, V. D. (2017). The case of the pivot to Asia: System effects and the origins of strategy. Political Science Quarterly, 132(4), 595–617. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12703
  • Aum, F., Stokes, J., Kim, P. M., Trivedi, A. M., Vandenbrink, R., Staats, J., & Yun, J. Y. (2020). A peace regime for the Korean peninsula. United States Institute of Peace. Available at https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/02/peace-regime-korean-peninsula
  • Baev, P. K. (2019). Three turns in the evolution of China-Russia presidential pseudo-alliance. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 6(1), 4–18. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.263
  • Bakich, S. D. (2020). Signalling capacity and crisis diplomacy: Explaining the failure of ‘maximum pressure’ in the 2017 US-North Korea nuclear crisis. Journal of Strategic Studies, 45(5), 692–717. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1755960.
  • Betts, R. K. (2000). Is strategy an illusion? International Security, 25(2), 5–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/016228800560444
  • Bousquet, A., & Curtis, S. (2011). Beyond models and metaphors: Complexity theory, systems thinking and international relations. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 24(01), 43–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2011.558054
  • Braumoeller, B. F. (2013). The great powers and the international system: Systemic theory in empirical perspective. Cambridge University Press.
  • Buzan, B., & Waever, O. (2003). Regions and powers: The structure of international security (No. 91). Cambridge University Press.
  • Cha, V. (2018). Giving North Korea a ‘bloody nose’ carries a huge risk to Americans, Washington Post, 31 January 2018, Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/victor-cha-giving-north-korea-a-bloody-nose-carries-a-huge-risk-to-americans/2018/01/30/43981c94-05f7-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html
  • Cha, V. D. (2020). Allied decoupling in an era of US–China strategic competition. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 13(4), 509–536. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poaa014
  • Choi, J. K. (2015). The perils of strategic patience with North Korea. The Washington Quarterly, 38(4), 57–72. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2015.1125829
  • Choi, J. K., & Bae, J. Y. (2016). Security implications of a nuclear North Korea: Crisis stability and imperatives for engagement. Korea Observer, 47(4), 807–827.
  • Choo, J. (2019). “China’s strategic cooperation with Russia and the neutralization of the Korean peninsula”. In J. Chooet al., Y. Kim, A. Lukin, & E. Wishnick (Eds.), The China-Russia entente and the Korean peninsula (pp. 31–39). National Bureau of Asian Research.
  • Chung, A., & Ryu, K. E. (2022). The impact of US and China on ROK–DPRK relations, 1993–2019. Asian Survey, 62(3), 413–440. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2021.1439545
  • Chung, J. H. (2007). Between ally and partner: Korea-China relations and the United States. Columbia University Press.
  • Chung, J. H., & Choi, M. H. (2013). Uncertain allies or uncomfortable neighbors? Making sense of China–North Korea relations, 1949–2010. The Pacific Review, 26(3), 243–264. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2012.759262
  • Chung, K. (2017). Geopolitics and a realist turn of US foreign policy toward North Korea. Korea Observer - Institute of Korean Studies, 48(4), 765–790. https://doi.org/10.29152/KOIKS.2017.48.4.765
  • Cooper, Z. (2023). Focus versus format: An American view of South Korea's regional engagement. Asian Politics & Policy, 15(1), 37–47. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12677
  • Dalton, T., & Kim, J. (2023). Rethinking arms control with a nuclear North Korea. Survival, 65(1), 21–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2172847
  • Denyer, S., & Erickson, A. (2017). Beijing warns Pyongyang: You’re on your own if you go after the United States, Washington Post, 12 August, Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-warns-north-korea-youre-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-us/2017/08/11/a01a4396-7e68-11e7-9026-4a0a64977c92_story.html
  • Dian, M. (2020). Japan, South Korea and the rise of a networked security architecture in East Asia. International Politics, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-019-00194-8
  • Easley, L. E., & Park, I. Y. (2016). China’s norms in its near abroad: Understanding Beijing’s North Korea policy. Journal of Contemporary China, 25(101), 651–668. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2016.1160497
  • Foreign Ministry. (2021). Foreign ministry spokesperson wang wenbin’s regular press conference on July 7, 2021. Available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202107/t20210707_9170780.html
  • Freeman, C.2015). China and North Korea: Strategic and policy perspectives from a changing China. Springer.
  • Fu, Y. (2017). The Korean nuclear issue: Past, present, and future: A Chinese perspective. John L. Thornton China Center.
  • Gadinger, F., & Peters, D. (2016). Feedback loops in a world of complexity: A cybernetic approach at the interface of foreign policy analysis and international relations theory. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 29(1), 251–269. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2013.872599
  • Gunitsky, S. (2013). Complexity and theories of change in international politics. International Theory, 5(1), 35–63. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1752971913000110
  • Ha, Y.-C., & Shin, B.-S. (2023). The impact of the Ukraine war on Russian–North Korean relations. Asian Survey, 62(5-6), 893–919. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1800092
  • Hill, C. R. (2015). Outpost: A diplomat at work. Simon and Schuster.
  • Hinata-Yamaguchi, R. (2016). Completing the US-Japan-Korea alliance triangle: Prospects and issues in Japan-Korea security cooperation. The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 28(3), 383–402. https://doi.org/10.22883/kjda.2016.28.3.004
  • Hopf, T. (2010). The logic of habit in international relations. European Journal of International Relations, 16(4), 539–561. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066110363502
  • Ikenberry, G. J., & Moon, C. I. (2007). The United States and northeast Asia: Debates, issues, and new order. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
  • International Crisis Group. (2013). Fire on the city gate: Why China keeps North Korea close. Available at https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china/fire-city-gate-why-china-keeps-north-korea-close
  • Jackson, V. (2018). On the brink: Trump, Kim, and the threat of nuclear War. Cambridge University Press.
  • Jang, Y., & Son, D. (2020). Sino-DPRK geopolitical curse behind Kim Jong-un's olive branch. Pacific Focus, 35(1), 29–58. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12157
  • Jervis, R. (1993). Arms control, stability, and causes of War. Political Science Quarterly, 108(2), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2152010
  • Jervis, R. (1998). System effects: Complexity in political and social life. Princeton University Press.
  • Jervis, R., & Rapp-Hooper, M. (2018). Perception and misperception on the Korean peninsula: How unwanted wars begin. Foreign Affairs, 97(3), 103–117.
  • Jia, Q. (2017). Time to prepare for the worst in North Korea, East Asia Forum, 11 September, available at https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/11/time-to-prepare-for-the-worst-in-north-korea/
  • Kang, D. C. (2003). International relations theory and the second Korean war. International Studies Quarterly, 47(3), 301–324. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2478.4703001
  • Kavalski, E. (2007). The fifth debate and the emergence of complex international relations theory: Notes on the application of complexity theory to the study of international life. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 20(3), 435–454. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557570701574154
  • Kim, D., & Lee, S. H. (2018). Historical perspective on China’s “tipping point” with North Korea. Asian Perspective, 42(1), 33–60. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2018.0001
  • Kim, I. (2020). Trump power: Maximum pressure and China’s sanctions enforcement against North Korea. The Pacific Review, 33(1), 96–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2018.1549589
  • Kim, M. H. (2016). Why provoke? The Sino-US competition in East Asia and North Korea’s strategic choice. Journal of Strategic Studies, 39(7), 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2015.1035433
  • Kissinger, H. (2017). How to resolve the North Korea crisis. Wall Street Journal, 11 August, Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-resolve-the-north-korea-crisis-1502489292
  • Koga, K. (2023). Struggle for coalition-building: Japan, South Korea, and the indo-pacific. Asian Politics & Policy, 15(1), 63–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12679
  • Kong, T. Y. (2018). China's engagement-oriented strategy towards North Korea: Achievements and limitations. The Pacific Review, 31(1), 76–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1316301
  • Kurata, H. (2019). Korean peace building and Sino–US relations: An “Ad-hoc” concert of interests? Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 8(1), 30–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/24761028.2019.1631426
  • Kwon, E. (2022). Negotiations on the Denuclearisation of North Korea: A critical evaluation of summit diplomacy. Asian Affairs, 53(3), 742–767. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2022.2076473
  • Kydd, A. H. (2015). Pulling the plug: Can there be a deal with China on Korean unification? The Washington Quarterly, 38(2), 63–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2015.1064710
  • Lee, S. H. (2016). North Korea in South Korea–Japan relations as a source of mutual security anxiety among democratic societies. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 16(2), 273–301. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcv018
  • Lee, S. H. (2018). The shift of security environment in Northeast Asia: The US–China conflict and its implications for Korea. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 1(2), 352–362. https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2018.1542655
  • Li, D. (2014). ‘Zhonghan jiemeng, you keneng ma?’ [Is a China–South Korea alliance possible?]. Huanqiu, 24 October, available at, https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnJFJ9X
  • Liu, W. (2018). ‘Telangpu zhengfu dui chao xinzheng zhong de ‘yihua zhichao’ celue Pingxi’ [An analysis of the trump administration’s new strategy towards North Korea: “leaning on China to sanction the DPRK]. Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies, no. 6, 106–132.
  • Lua, J., & Lin, X. (2017). We have ‘zero contact’ with North Korea, senior Chinese military officer tells Conversation With,’ Channel News Asia, 9 July, Available at: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/we-have-zero-contact-with-north-korea-senior-chinese-military-9016132
  • Mastro, O. S. (2023). The next flashpoint? China, the Republic of Korea, and the yellow Sea. Asia Policy, 30(1), 67–93. https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2023.0008
  • Meyskens, C. (2019). Chinese views of the nuclear endgame in North Korea. The Nonproliferation Review, 26(5–6), 499–517. https://doi.org/10.1080/10736700.2019.1667050
  • Moon, C.-i. (2019). President moon jae-in and the Korea peace initiative. Global Asia, 14(2), 9–17.
  • Moon, J.-i. (2017). Presidential address at the Körber Foundation. Available at https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5478/view.do?seq=319128
  • Nakamura, D., & Gearan, A. (2017). Obama warned Trump on North Korea. But Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ strategy wasn’t what Obama aides expected, Washington Post, 9 August Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-warned-trump-on-north-korea-but-trumps-fire-and-fury-strategy-wasnt-what-obama-aides-expected/2017/08/09/f3f02e0e-7d19-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html
  • Ng, T., & Lee, J. (2018). Kim Jong-un masterminded China visit even though the invitation came from Xi Jinping, North Korea says, South China Morning Post, 31 March, Available at: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2139711/whose-idea-was-kim-jong-uns-china-trip-north-says-it
  • Orsini, A., Le Prestre, P., Haas, P. M., Brosig, M., Pattberg, P., Widerberg, O., & Chandler, D. (2020). Forum: Complex systems and international governance. International Studies Review, 22(4), 1008–1038. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viz005
  • Overholt, W. (2019). North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?: Foreward, overview. Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government.
  • Panda, A. (2020). Kim jong Un and the bomb: Survival and deterrence in North Korea. Oxford University Press.
  • Park, H., & Park, J. J. (2017). How not to be abandoned by China: North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship revisited. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 29(3), 371–387.
  • Park, J. J. (2022). The US-led security network in the Indo–Pacific in international order transition: A South Korean perspective. The Pacific Review, 329–350. Available at https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2022.2160790
  • Park, S. H. (2019). Dueling nationalisms in North and South Korea. Palgrave Communications, 5(1), 40. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-019-0248-3
  • Pempel, T. J.2012). The economy-security nexus in Northeast Asia. Routledge.
  • Piao, J. (2019). ‘Chaoxian bandao jushi yu zhong’e xinshidai quanmian zhanlue xiezuo huoban guanxi’ [The situation of Korean peninsula and comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia in the New Era]. Journal of Northeast Asia Studies, 47(no.6), 26–38.
  • Pollack, J. D. (2017). No exit: North Korea, nuclear weapons, and international security. Routledge.
  • Pompeo, M. (2023). Never give an inch: Fighting for the America I love. Broadside Books.
  • Powell, R. (1989). Crisis stability in the nuclear age. American Political Science Review, 83(1), 61–76. https://doi.org/10.2307/1956434
  • Rinna, A. V. (2023). The Russia–South Korea relationship after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and implications for the U.S.-ROK alliance. Asia Policy, 30(1), 95–113. https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2023.0009
  • Roehrig, T. (2017). Japan, South Korea, and the United States nuclear umbrella: Deterrence after the cold war. Columbia University Press.
  • Roehrig, T. (2022). Becoming an “unfriendly” state: South Korea–Russia relations and the invasion of Ukraine. Asian Survey, 62(5-6), 866–892. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1799278
  • Roy, D. (2011). The North Korea crisis in Sino–US relations. The Journal of Comparative Asian Development, 10(2), 281–304. https://doi.org/10.1080/15339114.2011.622170
  • Sakaki, A., & Nishino, J. (2018). Japan's South Korea predicament. International Affairs, 94(4), 735–754. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiy029
  • Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and influence. Yale University Press.
  • Sherblom, S. A. (2015). A moral experience feedback loop: Modeling a system of moral self-cultivation in everyday life. Journal of Moral Education, 44(3), 364–381. https://doi.org/10.1080/03057240.2015.1056728
  • Shin, J. (2018). China's great power identity and its policy on the Korean peninsula in the Xi jinping era. Pacific Focus, 33(2), 284. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12119
  • Smetana, M., & Ludvik, J. (2019). Theorising indirect coercion: The logic of triangular strategies. International Relations, 33(3), 455–474. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117819836691
  • Snider, D., Sohn, Y., & Soeya, Y. (2016). US–ROK–Japan Trilateralism: Building Bridges and Strengthening Cooperation. National Bureau of Asian Research Report, (59).
  • Snyder, S. A. (2018). South Korea at the crossroads: Autonomy and alliance in an era of rival powers. Columbia University Press.
  • Snyder, S. A., & Park, K.-A. (2022). North Korea’s foreign policy The Kim Jong-un regime in a hostile world. Rowman & Littlefield.
  • Sohn, Y. (2019). South Korea under the United States–China rivalry: Dynamics of the economic-security nexus in trade policymaking. The Pacific Review, 32(6), 1019–1040. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2019.1617770
  • Sohn, Y., & Pempel, T. J. (2018). Japan and Asia’s contested order: The interplay of security, economics, and identity. Springer.
  • Son, D. (2021). Bringing North Korea to the negotiating table: Unstable foundations of Kim Jong-un’s North Korean regime. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 21(2), 295–325. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcz024
  • Vyas, U., Chen, C. C., & Roy, D. (2015). The North Korea crisis and regional responses. East-West Center.
  • Walby, S. (2007). Complexity theory, systems theory, and multiple intersecting social inequalities. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 37(4), 449–470. https://doi.org/10.1177/0048393107307663
  • Wang, Y. (2017). ‘Zhicai he duihua he’erweiyi caineng dakai bandao hewenti zhi suo” [Sanctions and dialogue should be combined in order to solve the quandary of peninsular cooperation]. Xinhua, 7 September, available at: http://www.xinhuanet.com/2017-09/07/c_129698592.htm
  • White House. (2022). National security strategy. Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
  • Williams, B., & Mobrand, E. (2010). Explaining divergent responses to the North Korean abductions issue in Japan and South Korea. The Journal of Asian Studies, 69(2), 507–536. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021911810000070
  • Wu, J. (2017). Wu Jianmin tan gonggong waijiao [Wu Jianman on Public Diplomacy]. zhongguo minzhu fazhi chubanshe.
  • Yan, X. (2011). How China can defeat America,’ New York Times, 20 November.
  • Yan, X. (2014). ‘Zhonghan jiemeng shi ‘shidai qushi’’ [It’s zeitgeist for China and South Korea to become allies], Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, 24 October, available at https://carnegietsinghua.org/2014/10/24/zh-pub-57040
  • Yan, X. (2017). ‘Waibu weixie shang buzuyi dianfu zhongguo jueqi’ [External threats will not thwart China’s rise], Global Times, 23 February, vailable at: http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2017-02/10183954.html
  • Yang, W. (2018). Chaohe bianju zhong de meiguo yinsu’ [The US factor in the transition period of the DPRK nuclear issue]. Xiandai Guoji Guanxi, no. 5(2018), 16–23.
  • Yang, X. (2017). The anachronism of a China socialized: Why engagement is not all it’s cracked up to be. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 10(1), 67–94. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pox001
  • Yang, X. (2018). China's clear and present conundrum on the Korean peninsula: Stuck between the past and the future. International Affairs, 94(3), 595–611. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiy058
  • Yang, X. (2019). Appraising the “Thucydides Trap” geographically: The Korean factor in sino-US relations. Pacific Focus, 34(2), 183–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12144
  • Yang, X. (2020a). Disenchanted entanglement:The north Korean shades of grey on the Chinese mind. Journal of Contemporary China, 29(123), 454–468. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1645482
  • Yang, X. (2020b). The great Chinese surprise: The rupture with the United States is real and is happening. International Affairs, 96(2), 419–437. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz251
  • Zhang, M. (2018). Institutional creation or sovereign extension? Roles and functions of nascent China–Japan–South Korea trilateral cooperation secretariat. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 18(2), 249–278. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcw023
  • Zheng, Y. (2018). Meichao fenghui heng keneng yi xisheng zhongguo wei chouma, [US–DPRK summit may well sacrifice China’s interests]. Huxiu, 9 March 2018, Available at: https://www.huxiu.com/article/235150.html
  • Zhu, F. (2018). Why the Trump-Kim meeting hinges on China, South China Morning Post, 17 March, available at: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2137380/why-trump-kim-meeting-hinges-china
  • Zhu, Z. (2016). Comrades in broken arms: Shifting Chinese policies toward North Korea. Asian Politics & Policy, 8(4), 575–592. doi:10.1111/aspp.12287

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.