7,451
Views
33
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Spatial crime distribution and prediction for sporting events using social media

ORCID Icon, , ORCID Icon, & ORCID Icon
Pages 1708-1739 | Received 02 May 2018, Accepted 19 Jan 2020, Published online: 06 Feb 2020

References

  • Adepeju, M., Rosser, G., and Cheng, T., 2016. Novel evaluation metrics for sparse spatio-temporal point process hotspot predictions-a crime case study. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 30 (11), 2133–2154. doi:10.1080/13658816.2016.1159684
  • Al Boni, M. and Gerber, M.S., 2016a. Area-specific crime prediction models. 2016 15th IEEE International Conference On Machine Learning And Applications (ICMLA), Anaheim, CA, USA, 671–676.
  • Al Boni, M. and Gerber, M.S., 2016b. Automatic optimization of localized kernel density estimation for hotspot policing. 2016 15th IEEE international conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA), Anaheim, CA, 32–38.
  • Al Boni, M. and Gerber, M.S., 2016c. Predicting crime with routine activity patterns inferred from social media. IEEE international conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), 9 Oct 2016 Budapest, Hungary, 001233–001238.
  • Alqhtani, S.M., Luo, S., and Regan, B., 2015. Fusing text and image for event detection in twitter. arXiv Preprint arXiv:1503.03920, 7 (1), 27–35.
  • Alruily, M., 2012. Using text mining to identify crime patterns from arabic crime news report corpus. PhD (Doctor of Philosophy). DeMontfort University. doi:10.1094/PDIS-11-11-0999-PDN
  • Andresen, M.A., 2011. The ambient population and crime analysis. The Professional Geographer, 63 (2), 193–212. doi:10.1080/00330124.2010.547151
  • Andresen, M.A. and Linning, S.J., 2012. The (in) appropriateness of aggregating across crime types. Applied Geography, 35 (1), 275–282. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.07.007
  • Andresen, M.A. and Tong, W., 2012. The impact of the 2010 winter olympic games on crime in vancouver 1. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 54 (3), 333–361. doi:10.3138/cjccj.2011.E44
  • Anselin, L., 1995. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27 (2), 93–115. doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
  • Anselin, L. and Kelejian, H.H., 1997. Testing for spatial error autocorrelation in the presence of endogenous regressors. International Regional Science Review, 20 (1–2), 153–182. doi:10.1177/016001769702000109
  • Anselin, L., Syabri, I., and Kho, Y., 2006. GeoDa: an introduction to spatial data analysis. Geographical Analysis, 38 (1), 5–22. doi:10.1111/gean.2006.38.issue-1
  • Bendler, J., et al., 2014a. Investigating crime-to-twitter relationships in urban environments-facilitating a virtual neighborhood watch. 22nd European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Tel Aviv, Israel.
  • Bendler, J., Ratku, A., and Neumann, D., 2014b. Crime mapping through geo-spatial social media activity. International conference on information systems, 12–15. 2014b International Conference On Information Systems. doi:10.1080/08998280.2014.11929037
  • Block, R., 2000. Gang activity and overall levels of crime: a new mapping tool for defining areas of gang activity using police records. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16 (3), 369–383. doi:10.1023/A:1007579007011
  • Bogomolov, A., et al., 2014. Once upon a crime: towards crime prediction from demographics and mobile data. Proceedings of the 16th international conference on multimodal interaction, Istanbul, Turkey, 427–434.
  • Botta, F., Moat, H.S., and Preis, T., 2015. Quantifying crowd size with mobile phone and twitter data. Royal Society Open Science, 2 (5), 150162. doi:10.1098/rsos.150162
  • Braga, A.A., 2005. Hot spots policing and crime prevention: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 1 (3), 317–342. doi:10.1007/s11292-005-8133-z
  • Braga, A.A. and Bond, B.J., 2008. Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial*. Criminology, 46 (3), 577–607. doi:10.1111/crim.2008.46.issue-3
  • Braga, A.A., Papachristos, A.V., and Hureau, D.M., 2014. The effects of hot spots policing on crime: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Justice Quarterly, 31 (4), 633–663. doi:10.1080/07418825.2012.673632
  • Brantingham, P. and Brantingham, P., 1995. Criminality of place. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 3 (3), 5–26. doi:10.1007/BF02242925
  • Brantingham, P.J. and Brantingham, P.L., 1981. Environmental criminology. Hills, CA: Sage Publications Beverly.
  • Brantingham, P.L. and Brantingham, P.J., 1993. Environment, routine and situation: toward a pattern theory of crime. Advances in Criminological Theory, 5 (2), 259–294.
  • Bright, E.A., Rose, A.N., and Urban, M.L., 2016. Landscan 2015 high-resolution global population data set. Oak Ridge, TN (United States): Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL).
  • Brimicombe, A. and Cafe, R., 2012. Beware, win or lose: domestic violence and the world cup. Significance, 9 (5), 32–35. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2012.00606.x
  • Burnap, P. and Williams, M.L., 2015. Cyber hate speech on twitter: an application of machine classification and statistical modeling for policy and decision making. Policy & Internet, 7 (2), 223–242. doi:10.1002/poi3.85
  • Caplan, J.M., Kennedy, L.W., and Miller, J., 2011. Risk terrain modeling: brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting. Justice Quarterly, 28 (2), 360–381. doi:10.1080/07418825.2010.486037
  • Caruso, R. and Di Domizio, M., 2013. International hostility and aggressiveness on the soccer pitch: evidence from European championships and world cups for the period 2000–2012. International Area Studies Review, 16 (3), 262–273. doi:10.1177/2233865913499267
  • Center for Spatial Data Science, 2018. GeoDa data and lab. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago.
  • Chainey, S., 2012. Repeat victimisation. JDiBrief series. London: UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science.
  • Chainey, S., Tompson, L., and Uhlig, S., 2008. The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal, 21 (1), 4–28. doi:10.1057/palgrave.sj.8350066
  • Cheng, Z. and Smyth, R., 2015. Crime victimization, neighbourhood safety and happiness in China. Economic Modelling, 51, 424–435. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.027
  • City of Chicago, 2018. Chicago data portal.
  • Clarke, R., 2002. Thefts of and from cars in parking facilities. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
  • Cohen, L.E. and Felson, M., 1979. Social change and crime rate trends: a routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44 (4), 588–608.
  • Copus, R. and Laqueur, H., 2014. Entertainment as crime prevention: evidence from Chicago sports games. Journal of Sports Economics, 20 (3), 344–370. doi:10.1177/1527002518762551
  • Corney, D., Martin, C., and Göker, A., 2014. Spot the ball: detecting sports events on twitter. Advances in Information Retrieval. Springer, 449–454.
  • Curtis, A.J., Mills, J.W., and Leitner, M., 2006. Spatial confidentiality and GIS: re-engineering mortality locations from published maps about Hurricane Katrina. International Journal of Health Geographics, 5 (1), 44. doi:10.1186/1476-072X-5-44
  • Davidson, T., et al., 2017. Automated hate speech detection and the problem of offensive language. 11th international AAAI conference on web and social media, 15-18 May Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
  • Dunning, E., Murphy, P.J., and Williams, J., 2014. The roots of football hooliganism (RLE sports studies): an historical and sociological study. London, UK: Routledge.
  • ESPN, 2018. NBA attendance report [online]. Available from: http://dynamic.espn.com/nba/attendance?year=2014&sort=allAvg [Accessed 30 Aug 2018].
  • ESRI, 2018. ArcGis online: summarize within [online]. Available from: https://doc.arcgis.com/en/arcgis-online/analyze/summarize-within.htm [Accessed 15 September 2018].
  • Fan, R.-E., et al., 2008. LIBLINEAR: A library for large linear classification. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9 (Aug), 1871–1874.
  • Fawcett, T., 2006. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27 (8), 861–874. doi:10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010
  • Featherstone, C., 2013a. Identifying vehicle descriptions in microblogging text with the aim of reducing or predicting crime. Adaptive Science and Technology (ICAST), Pretoria, South Africa, 1–8.
  • Featherstone, C., 2013b. The relevance of social media as it applies in South Africa to crime prediction. IST-Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 1–7.
  • Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2018. Crime in the United States [online]. Available from: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/property-crime/mvtheftmain [Accessed 15 August 2018].
  • Founta, A.-M., et al., 2018. Large scale crowdsourcing and characterization of twitter abusive behavior. 12th international AAAI conference on web and social media, Palo Alto, California, USA.
  • Fraustino, J.D., Liu, B., and Jin, Y., 2012. Social media use during disasters: a review of the knowledge base and gaps. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 1–39.
  • Gabbidon, S.L. and Greene, H.T., 2018. Race and crime. Los Angeles, CA: Sage Publications.
  • Gao, L., Kuppersmith, A., and Huang, R., 2017. Recognizing explicit and implicit hate speech using a weakly supervised two-path bootstrapping approach. 8th international joint conference on natural language processing, Taipei, Taiwan, 774–782.
  • Gerber, M.S., 2014. Predicting crime using Twitter and kernel density estimation. Decision Support Systems, 61, 115–125. doi:10.1016/j.dss.2014.02.003
  • Gracenote, 2018. Hockey reference, Chicago blackhawks [online]. Available from: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CHI/ [Accessed 10 May 2017].
  • Groff, E.R. and Lockwood, B., 2014. Criminogenic facilities and crime across street segments in Philadelphia: uncovering evidence about the spatial extent of facility influence. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 51 (3), 277–314. doi:10.1177/0022427813512494
  • Grubesic, T.H. and Pridemore, W.A., 2011. Alcohol outlets and clusters of violence. International Journal of Health Geographics, 10 (1), 30. doi:10.1186/1476-072X-10-30
  • Hannon, L. and DeFina, R., 2005. Violent crime in African American and white neighborhoods: is poverty’s detrimental effect race-specific? Journal of Poverty, 9 (3), 49–67. doi:10.1300/J134v09n03_03
  • Hatebase, 2018. Hatebase [online]. Available from: https://hatebase.org/[Accessed 8 Aug 2018].
  • HockeyDB, 2018. Chicago blackhawks yearly attendance graph [online]. Available from: http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph.php?tmi=5218 [Accessed 30 Aug 2018].
  • Hoeben, E.M., et al. 2014. The space-time budget method in criminological research. Crime Science, 3 (1), 12. doi:10.1186/s40163-014-0012-3
  • Hu, Y., 2014. Event analytics on social media: challenges and solutions. (Doctor of Philosophy). Arizona State University.
  • Hu, Y., et al., 2018. A spatio-temporal kernel density estimation framework for predictive crime hotspot mapping and evaluation. Applied Geography, 99, 89–97. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.08.001
  • Kadar, C., Brüngger, R.R., and Pletikosa, I., 2017. Measuring ambient population from location-based social networks to describe urban crime. International conference on social informatics, Oxford, UK, 521–535.
  • Kadar, C., Iria, J., and Cvijikj, I.P., 2016. Exploring foursquare-derived features for crime prediction in New York City. The 5th international workshop on urban computing (UrbComp 2016), San Francisco, CA.
  • Kadar, C. and Pletikosa, I., 2018. Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction. EPJ Data Science, 7 (1), 26. doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0150-z
  • Kennedy, L.W., Caplan, J.M., and Piza, E., 2011. Risk clusters, hotspots, and spatial intelligence: risk terrain modeling as an algorithm for police resource allocation strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27 (3), 339–362. doi:10.1007/s10940-010-9126-2
  • Kinney, J.B., et al. 2008. Crime attractors, generators and detractors: land use and urban crime opportunities. Built Environment, 34 (1), 62–74. doi:10.2148/benv.34.1.62
  • Klein, M.W. and Maxson, C.L., 2010. Street gang patterns and policies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • Kounadi, O., et al. 2018. Population at risk: using areal interpolation and Twitter messages to create population models for burglaries and robberies. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 45 (3), 205–220. doi:10.1080/15230406.2017.1304243
  • Kurland, J., 2014. The ecology of football-related crime and disorder. Dissertation (Ph.D.). University College London.
  • Kurland, J., Johnson, S., and Tilley, N., 2017. Hotspotting and football violence: current statistics and implications for prevention. In: Peter Sturmey, ed. The wiley handbook of violence and aggression. John Wiley & Sons, 1–15.
  • Kurland, J., Tilley, N., and Johnson, S.D., 2014. The football ‘Hotspot’Matrix. In: Matt Hopkins and Treadwell James, eds. Football hooliganism, fan behaviour and crime: contemporary issues, London, UK: Palgrave McMillan, 21–48.
  • Leitner, M., et al. 2011. The impact of Hurricane Katrina on reported crimes in Louisiana: a spatial and temporal analysis. The Professional Geographer, 63 (2), 244–261. doi:10.1080/00330124.2010.547156
  • Leitner, M. and Helbich, M., 2011. The impact of hurricanes on crime: a spatio-temporal analysis in the city of Houston, Texas. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 38 (2), 213–221. doi:10.1559/15230406382213
  • Levine, N., 2008. The “Hottest” part of a hotspot: comments on “The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime”. Security Journal, 21 (4), 295–302. doi:10.1057/sj.2008.5
  • Lin, Y.-R., 2015. Event-related crowd activities on social media. Social Phenomena. Springer, 235–250.
  • Malleson, N. and Andresen, M.A., 2015a. The impact of using social media data in crime rate calculations: shifting hot spots and changing spatial patterns. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 42 (2), 112–121. doi:10.1080/15230406.2014.905756
  • Malleson, N. and Andresen, M.A., 2015b. Spatio-temporal crime hotspots and the ambient population. Crime Science, 4 (1), 1–8. doi:10.1186/s40163-015-0023-8
  • Malleson, N. and Andresen, M.A., 2016. Exploring the impact of ambient population measures on London crime hotspots. Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 52–63. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.03.002
  • Manson, S., et al., 2018. IPUMS national historical geographic information system: version 13.0 [Database]. Minnesota, Minneapolis: IPUMS.
  • Marie, O., 2016. Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 179 (1), 273–292. doi:10.1111/rssa.12113
  • Mohammad, S.M. and Turney, P.D., 2010. Emotions evoked by common words and phrases: using mechanical turk to create an emotion lexicon. Proceedings of the NAACL HLT 2010 workshop on computational approaches to analysis and generation of emotion in text, Los Angeles, CA, 26–34.
  • Mohammad, S.M. and Turney, P.D., 2013. Crowdsourcing a word–emotion association lexicon. Computational Intelligence, 29 (3), 436–465. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8640.2012.00460.x
  • Mohler, G.O., et al., 2012. Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 7 (5), e37455.
  • Montolio, D. and Planells, S., 2016. How time shapes crime: the temporal impacts of football matches on crime. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 61, 99–113. doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.10.001
  • Montolio, D. and Planells, S., 2018. Measuring the negative externalities of a private leisure activity: hooligans and pickpockets around the stadium. Journal of Economic Geography, 19 (2), 464–504.
  • No swearing, 2018. No swearing [online]. Available from: https://www.noswearing.com/ [Accessed 8 August 2018].
  • Ohyama, T. and Amemiya, M., 2018. Applying crime prediction techniques to Japan: a comparison between risk terrain modeling and other methods. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 24 (4), 469–487. doi:10.1007/s10610-018-9378-1
  • Openshaw, S. and Openshaw, S., 1984. The modifiable areal unit problem.
  • Perry, W.L., 2013. Predictive policing: the role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
  • Piza, E., et al. 2017. Place-based correlates of motor vehicle theft and recovery: measuring spatial influence across neighbourhood context. Urban Studies, 54 (13), 2998–3021. doi:10.1177/0042098016664299
  • Popescu, A.-M. and Pennacchiotti, M., 2010. Detecting controversial events from twitter. Proceedings of the 19th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management, Toronto, ON, 1873–1876.
  • Quillian, L. and Pager, D., 2001. Black neighbors, higher crime? The role of racial stereotypes in evaluations of neighborhood crime. American Journal of Sociology, 107 (3), 717–767. doi:10.1086/338938
  • Ristea, A., Andresen, M.A., and Leitner, M., 2018. Using tweets to understand changes in the spatial crime distribution for hockey events in Vancouver. The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe Canadien, 62 (3), 338–351. doi:10.1111/cag.v62.3
  • Rumi, S.K., Deng, K., and Salim, F.D., 2018. Crime event prediction with dynamic features. EPJ Data Science, 7 (1), 43. doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0171-7
  • Rummens, A., Hardyns, W., and Pauwels, L., 2017. The use of predictive analysis in spatiotemporal crime forecasting: building and testing a model in an urban context. Applied Geography, 86, 255–261. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.06.011
  • Schmidt, A. and Wiegand, M., 2017. A survey on hate speech detection using natural language processing. Proceedings of the fifth international workshop on natural language processing for social media, Boston, MA, 1-10.
  • Smith, M.D., 1979. Towards an explanation of hockey violence: A reference other approach. Canadian Journal of Sociology/Cahiers Canadiens De Sociologie, 4.2, 105–124.
  • Sportradar, 2018. Basketball reference, Chicago bulls [online]. Available from: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/ [Accessed 10 May 2017].
  • Struse, S.P. and Montolio, D., 2014. The effect of football matches on crime patterns in Barcelona. 54th congress of the european regional science association: “regional development & globalisation: best practices”, 26-29 August, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
  • Twitter Inc., 2018. Twitter API documentation [online]. Available from: https://dev.twitter.com/overview/documentation [Accessed 14 April 2014].
  • United Center, 2018. United center [online]. Available from: http://www.unitedcenter.com/ [Accessed 7 May 2017].
  • Vomfell, L., Härdle, W.K., and Lessmann, S., 2018. Improving crime count forecasts using twitter and taxi data. Decision Support Systems, 113, 73–85. doi:10.1016/j.dss.2018.07.003
  • Wang, H., et al., 2016. Crime rate inference with big data. Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, San Francisco, CA, 635–644.
  • Wang, M. and Gerber, M.S., 2015. Using twitter for next-place prediction, with an application to crime prediction. Computational intelligence, 2015 IEEE symposium series on, Cape Town, South Africa, 941–948.
  • Wang, X. and Brown, D.E., 2011. The spatio-temporal generalized additive model for criminal incidents. Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISI), 2011 IEEE international conference on, 42–47. doi:10.1177/1753193411414628
  • Wang, X., Gerber, M.S., and Brown, D.E., 2012. Automatic crime prediction using events extracted from twitter posts. In: S.J. Yang, A.M. Greenberg, and M. Endsley, eds. Social computing, behavioral-cultural modeling and prediction. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, 231–238.
  • Weitzer, R., 2017. Theorizing racial discord over policing before and after ferguson. Justice Quarterly, 34 (7), 1129–1153. doi:10.1080/07418825.2017.1362461
  • Wood, S., McInnes, M.M., and Norton, D.A., 2011. The bad thing about good games: the relationship between close sporting events and game-day traffic fatalities. Journal of Consumer Research, 38 (4), 611–621. doi:10.1086/660164
  • Yang, D., et al., 2018. CrimeTelescope: crime hotspot prediction based on urban and social media data fusion. World Wide Web, 21 (5), 1323–1347. doi:10.1007/s11280-017-0515-4
  • Yu, C.-H., et al., 2011. Crime forecasting using data mining techniques. 2011 IEEE 11th International Conference on Data Mininig Workshops (ICDMW), Vancouver, British Columbia, 779–786.
  • Yu, Y., et al. 2016. Athletic contests and individual robberies: an analysis based on hourly crime data. Applied Economics, 48 (8), 723–730. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1085645
  • Zhang, H., Suresh, G., and Qiu, Y., 2012. Issues in the aggregation and spatial analysis of neighborhood crime. Annals of GIS, 18 (3), 173–183. doi:10.1080/19475683.2012.691901
  • Zhang, Z., et al., 2016. Mining transportation information from social media for planned and unplanned events. Buffalo, NY United States: University at Buffalo.
  • Zhao, L., et al., 2015. Spatiotemporal event forecasting in social media. SIAM, Vancouver, British Columbia, 963–971.
  • Zhao, X. and Tang, J., 2017. Modeling temporal-spatial correlations for crime prediction. Proceedings of the 2017 ACM on conference on information and knowledge management, 497–506. doi:10.1142/S0218810417500563
  • Zhao, X. and Tang, J., 2018. Crime in urban areas: a data mining perspective. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 20 (1), 1–12. doi:10.1145/3229329