247
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Investment valuation of natural tourist attractions under the uncertainty of multiple unexpected events: an ROV method

, ORCID Icon &
Pages 2440-2460 | Received 05 Mar 2018, Accepted 22 Jun 2019, Published online: 06 Jul 2019

References

  • Adner, R., & Levinthal, D. A. (2004). What is not a real option: Considering boundaries for the application of real options to business strategy. Academy of Management Review, 29(1), 74–85.
  • Andergassen, R., Candela, G., & Figini, P. (2013). An economic model for tourism destinations: Product sophistication and price coordination. Tourism Management, 37, 86–98.
  • Anderson, B. A. (2006). Crisis management in the Australian tourism industry: Preparedness, personnel and postscript. Tourism Management, 27(6), 1290–1297.
  • Balmford, A., Green, J. M. H., Anderson, M., Beresford, J., Huang, C., et al. (2015). Walk on the wild side: Estimating the global magnitude of visits to protected areas. PLOS Biology, 13(2), e1002074.
  • Bates, D. S. (1991). The crash of ‘87: Was it expected? The Evidence From Options Markets. Journal of Finance, 46(3), 1009–1044.
  • Blackman, A., Naranjo, A. M., Robalino, J., Alpízar, F., & Rivera, J. (2014). Does tourism eco-certification pay? Costa Rica’s blue flag program. World Development, 58, 41–52.
  • Botin, J. A., Castillo, F. D., & Guzman, R. (2013). A real options application to manage risk related to intrinsic variables of a mine plan: A case study on chuquicamata underground mining project. Journal- South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 113(7), 583–592.
  • Boukas, N., & Ziakas, V. (2013). Impacts of the global economic crisis on Cyprus tourism and policy responses. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15(4), 329–345.
  • Brennan, M. J., & Schwartz, E. S. (1985). Evaluating natural resource investments. Journal of Business, 58(2), 135–157.
  • Bronner, F., & Hoog, R. D. (2012). Economizing strategies during an economic crisis. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), 1048–1069.
  • Bronner, F., & Hoog, R. D. (2016). Crisis resistance of tourist demand: The importance of quality of life. Journal of Travel Research, 55(8), 190–204.
  • Buyinza, M., Bukenya, M., & Nabalegwa, M. (2007). Economic valuation of Bujagali falls Recreational Park, Uganda. Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 25(2), 12–28.
  • Candela, G., Castellani, M., & Mussoni, M. (2008). Tourism investments under uncertainty: An economic analysis of ‘eco-monsters’. Tourism Economics, 15(3), 671–688.
  • Candela, G., & Figini, P. (2012). The economics of tourism destinations. Berlin: Springer.
  • Capozza, D., & Li, Y. (1994). The intensity and timing of investment: The case of land. American Economic Review, 84(4), 889–904.
  • Cebellos-Lascurain, H. (1996). Tourism, ecotourism and protected areas. Cambridge: IUCN—The World Conservation Union.
  • Chen, M. H. (2011). The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 30(1), 200–212.
  • Cohen, E., & Cohen, S. A. (2012). Current sociological theories and issues in tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(4), 2177–2202.
  • Collan, M. (2011). Valuation of industrial giga-investments: Theory and practice. Fuzzy Economic Review, xvi(1), 21–37.
  • Cont, R., & Voltchkova, E. (2005). Finite difference methods for option pricing methods in exponential levy models. SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 43, 1595–1626.
  • Copeland, T., & Weiner, J. (1990). Proactive management of uncertainty. McKinsey Quarterly, 4, 133–152.
  • Dempsey, J., & Suarez, D. C. (2016). Arrested development? The promises and paradoxes of ‘selling nature to save it’. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 106(3), 653–671.
  • Deng, J., King, B., & Bauer, T. (2002). Evaluating natural attractions for tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(2), 422–438.
  • Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Fainstein, S. S. (2002). One year on reflections on September 11th and the ‘war on terrorism’: Regulating New York City’s visitors in the aftermath of September 11th. International Journal of Urban & Regional Research, 26(3), 591–595.
  • Faulkner, B. (2015). Towards a framework for tourism disaster management. Tourism Management, 22(2), 135–147.
  • Faulkner, B., & Vikulov, S. (2001). Katherine, washed out one day, back on track the next: A post-mortem of a tourism disaster. Tourism Management, 22(4), 331–344.
  • Fleten, S. E., Linnerud, K., Molnár, P., & Nygaard, M. T. (2016). Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value? Energy, 116, 498–506.
  • Frisby, E. (2003). Communicating in a crisis: The British tourist authority's responses to the foot-and-mouth outbreak and 11th September, 2001. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 9(1), 89–100.
  • Frost, W., & Laing, J. (2018). Public–private partnerships for nature-based tourist attractions: The failure of seal rocks. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(6), 1–15.
  • Goodrich, J. N. (2002). September 11, 2001 attack on America: A record of the immediate impacts and reactions in the USA travel and tourism industry. Tourism Management, 23(6), 573–580.
  • Grenadier, S. R. (1996). The strategic exercise of options: Development cascades and overbuilding in real estate markets. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1653–1679.
  • Hajibaba, H., Boztuğ, Y., & Dolnicar, S. (2016). Preventing tourists from canceling in times of crises. Annals of Tourism Research, 60, 48–62.
  • Hall, C. M. (2010). Crisis events in tourism: Subjects of crisis in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 401–417.
  • Hamilton, W. F., & Mitchell, G. R. (1990). What is your R&S worth? McKinsey Quarterly, 3, 150–160.
  • Hassett, K. A., & Metcalf, G. E. (1999). Investment with uncertain tax policy: Does random tax policy discourage investment. Economic Journal, 109(457), 372–393.
  • Hystad, P. W., & Keller, P. C. (2008). Towards a destination tourism disaster management framework: Long-term lessons from a forest fire disaster. Tourism Management, 29(1), 151–162.
  • Josep, M. R., Esther, M. G., & Dolors, C. (2018). Economic and social yield of investing in hiking tourism: The case of Berguedà. Spain. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 35(2), 148–161.
  • Kuo, H. I., Chen, C. C., Tseng, W. C., Ju, L. F., & Huang, B. W. (2008). Assessing impacts of SARS and avian flu on international tourism demand to Asia. Tourism Management, 29(5), 917–928.
  • Lambooy, T., & Levashova, Y. (2011). Opportunities and challenges for private sector entrepreneurship and investment in biodiversity, ecosystem services and nature conservation. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, 7(4), 301–318.
  • Lamsal, P., Atreya, K., Pant, K. P., & Kumar, L. (2016). Tourism and wetland conservation: Application of travel cost and willingness to pay an entry fee at Ghodaghodi Lake complex, Nepal. Natural Resources Forum, 40(1-2), 51–61.
  • Lascu, D. N., Manrai, L. A., Manrai, A. K., & Gan, A. (2018). A cluster analysis of tourist attractions in Spain. European Journal of Management and Business Economics, 27(3), 218–230.
  • Mair, J., Ritchie, B. W., & Walters, G. (2016). Towards a research agenda for post-disaster and post-crisis recovery strategies for tourist destinations: A narrative review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(1), 1–26.
  • Mandel, J. T., Joshdonlan, C., Wilcox, C., Cudney-Bueno, R., Pascoe, S., & Tulchin, D. (2009). Debt investment as a tool for value transfer in biodiversity conservation. Conservation Letters, 2(5), 233–239.
  • Martzoukos, S. H., & Trigeorgis, L. (2007). Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events. European Journal of Operational Research, 136(3), 696–706.
  • Mcdonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986). The value of waiting to invest. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101(4), 707–728.
  • Merton, R. C. (1973). Theory of rational option pricing. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4(1), 141–183.
  • Morakabati, Y., Page, S. J., & Fletcher, J. (2016). Emergency management and tourism stakeholder responses to crises: A global survey. Journal of Travel Research, 56(3), 1–18.
  • Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(Nov.), 147–175.
  • Naik, V., & Lee, M. (1990). General equilibrium pricing of options on the market portfolio with discontinuous returns. Review of Financial Studies, 3(4), 493–521.
  • Øksendal, B., & Sulem, A. (2005). Applied stochastic control of jump diffusions. Berlin. German: Springer Press.
  • Okumus, F., Altinay, M., & Arasli, H. (2005). The impact of Turkey's economic crisis of February 2001 on the tourism industry in northern Cyprus. Tourism Management, 26(1), 95–104.
  • Paddock, J. L., Siegel, D. R., & Smith, J. L. (1988). Option valuation of claims on real assets: The case of offshore petroleum leases. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(3), 479–508.
  • Page, S., Song, H. Y., & Wu, C. G. (2012). Assessing the impacts of the global economic crisis and swine flu on inbound tourism demand in the United Kingdom. Journal of Travel Research, 51(2), 142–153.
  • Page, S., Yeoman, I., Munro, C., Connell, J., & Walker, L. (2006). A case study of best practice—visit Scotland's prepared response to an influenza pandemic. Tourism Management, 27(3), 361–393.
  • Pantović, M., & Stamenković, I. (2013). Tourism potential valorization of the river Danube in Novi Sad and its environment based on the Hilary Du Cros model. European Researcher, 59, 9–2.
  • Papatheodorou, A., & Pappas, N. (2016). Economic recession, job vulnerability, and tourism decision making: A qualitative comparative analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 56(5), 663–677.
  • Papatheodorou, A., Rosselló, J., Xiao, H. G., Sheldon, P., & Dwyer, L. (2010). Global economic crisis and tourism: Consequences and perspectives. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 39–45.
  • Pauchant, T., & Mitroff, I. (1992). Transforming the crisis prone organization. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Publishers.
  • Pawlina, G., & Kort, P. M. (2005). The strategic value of flexible quality choice: A real options analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal, 78(1), 1–19.
  • Pennings, E., & Lint, O. (1997). The option value of advanced R&D. European Journal of Operational Research, 103(1), 83–94.
  • Penningtongray, L., Schroeder, A., Wu, B., Donohoe, H., & Cahyanto, I. (2013). Travelers’ perceptions of crisis preparedness certification in the United States. Journal of Travel Research, 53(3), 353–365.
  • Perlesribes, J. F., Ramónrodríguez, A. B., Sevillajiménez, M., & Rubia, A. (2016). The effects of economic crises on tourism success: An integrated model. Tourism Economics, 22(2), 417–447.
  • Pindyck, R. S. (1980). Uncertainty and exhaustible resource markets. Journal of Political Economy, 88(6), 1203–1225.
  • Pindyck, R. S. (1991). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment. Journal of Economic Literature, 29(3), 1110–1148.
  • Postali, F., & Picchetti, P. (2006). Geometric Brownian motion and structural breaks in oil prices: A quantitative analysis. Energy Economics, 28(4), 506–522.
  • Quigg, L. (1993). Empirical testing of real option-pricing models. Journal of Finance, 48(2), 621–640.
  • Raab, C., & Schwer, R. K. (2003). The short- and long-term impact of the Asian financial crisis on Las Vegas strip baccarat revenues. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 22(1), 37–45.
  • Ritchie, B. W. (2004). Chaos, crises and disasters: A strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry. Tourism Management, 25(6), 669–683.
  • Ritchie, B. W. (2008). Tourism disaster planning and management: From response and recovery to reduction and readiness. Current Issues in Tourism, 11(4), 315–348.
  • Ritchie, B. W. (2009). Crisis and disaster management for tourism. Clevedon: Channel View.
  • Ritchie, B. W., Crotts, J. C., Zehrer, A., & Volsky, G. T. (2013). Understanding the effects of a tourism crisis: The impact of the BP oil spill on regional lodging demand. Journal of Travel Research, 53(1), 12–25.
  • Ritchie, J. R. B., Molinar, A. C. M., Frechtling, D. C., Sheldon, P., & Dwyer, L. (2010). Impacts of the world recession and economic crisis on tourism: North America. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 5–15.
  • Saha, S., & Yap, G. (2014). The moderation effects of political instability and terrorism on tourism development: A cross-country panel analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 509–521.
  • Sarman, I., Scagnolari, S., & Maggi, R. (2016). Acceptance of life-threatening hazards among young tourists: A stated choice experiment. Journal of Travel Research, 55(8), 979–992.
  • Savolainen, J. (2016). Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature. Resources Policy, 50, 49–65.
  • Smeral, E. (2009). The impact of the financial and economic crisis on European tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 82(1), 195–208.
  • Smeral, E., Sheldon, P., & Dwyer, L. (2010). Impacts of the world recession and economic crisis on tourism: Forecasts and potential risks. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 31–38.
  • Song, H. Y., Lin, S. S., Sheldon, P., & Dwyer, L. (2010). Impacts of the financial and economic crisis on tourism in Asia. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 16–30.
  • Sönmez, S. F. (1998). Tourism, terrorism, and political instability. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(2), 416–456.
  • Titman, S. (1985). Urban land prices under uncertainty. American Economic Review, 75(3), 505–514.
  • Trigeorgis, L. (1991). A log-transformed binominal numerical analysis method for valuing complex multi-option investments. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 26(3), 309–326.
  • Trigeorgis, L. (1993). Real options and interactions with financial flexibility. Financial Management, 22(Autumn), 202–224.
  • Trigeorgis, L. (1996). Real option: Management flexibility and strategy in resource allocation. Cambridge, MS: MIT Press.
  • Vasudeva, R., & Savitha, S. (1993). On the increments of wiener process - a look through subsequences. Stochastic Processes & Their Applications, 47(1), 153–158.
  • Von Bergner, N. M. V., & Lohmann, M. (2014). Future challenges for global tourism: A Delphi survey. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 420–432.
  • Wang, J., & Ritchie, B. W. (2012). Understanding accommodation managers’ crisis planning intention: An application of the theory of planned behavior. Tourism Management, 33(5), 1057–1067.
  • Wang, J., Ritchie, B. W., Theocharous, A. L., & Mansfeld, Y. (2010). A theoretical model for strategic crisis planning: Factors influencing crisis planning in the hotel industry. International Journal of Tourism Policy, 3(4), 297–317.
  • Weeds, H. (2017). Strategic delay in a real options model of R&D competition. Review of Economic Studies, 69(3), 729–747.
  • Yang, M., Blyth, W., Bradley, R., Bunn, D., Clarke, C., & Wilson, T. (2008). Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy. Energy Economics, 30(4), 1933–1950.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.