Predictors for mortality due to acute exacerbation of COPD in primary care: Derivation of a clinical prediction rule in a multicentre cohort study

References

• GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet. 2015;385:117–171.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vogelmeier CF, Criner GJ, Martinez FJ, et al. Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of chronic obstructive lung disease 2017 report: GOLD executive summary. Eur Respir J. 2017;49:1700214.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Toy EL, Gallagher KF, Stanley EL, et al. The economic impact of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and exacerbation definition: a review. COPD. 2010;7(3):214–228.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Cote CG, Dordelly LJ, Celli BR. Impact of COPD exacerbations on patient-centered outcomes. Chest. 2007;131(3):696–704.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doll H, Miravitlles M. Health-related QOL in acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a review of the literature. Pharmacoeconomics. 2005;23(4):345–363.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miravitlles M, Ferrer M, Pont A, et al. Effect of exacerbations on quality of life in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a 2 year follow up study. Thorax. 2004;59(5):387–395.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anzueto A, Leimer I, Kesten S. Impact of frequency of COPD exacerbations on pulmonary function, health status and clinical outcomes. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2009;4:245–251.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Hurst JR, Vestbo J, Anzueto A, Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) Investigators, et al. Susceptibility to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. N Engl J Med. 2010;363(12):1128–11138.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bafadhel M, McKenna S, Terry S, et al. Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: identification of biologic clusters and their biomarkers. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2011;184(6):662–671.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Echevarria C, Steer J, Heslop-Marshall K, et al. Validation of the DECAF score to predict hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD. Thorax. 2016;71(2):133–140.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Esteban C, Arostegui I, García-Gutiérrez S, for the IRYSS-COPD group, et al. A decision tree to assess short-term mortality after an emergency department visit for an exacerbation of COPD: a cohort study. Respir Res. 2015;16(1):151.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quintana JM, Esteban C, Unzurrunzaga A, IRYSS-COPD group, et al. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments. BMC Med. 2014;12:66.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roche N, Chavaillon J-M, Maurer C, et al. A clinical in-hospital prognostic score for acute exacerbations of COPD. Respir Res. 2014;15:99.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roche N, Zureik M, Soussan D, Urgence BPCO (COPD Emergency) Scientific Committee, The Urgence BPCO (COPD Emergency) Scientific Committee and Investigators, et al. Predictors of outcomes in COPD exacerbation cases presenting to the emergency department. Eur Respir J. 2008;32(4):953–961.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tabak YP, Sun X, Johannes RS, et al. Development and validation of a mortality risk-adjustment model for patients hospitalized for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Med Care. 2013;51(7):597–605.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steer J, Gibson J, Bourke SC. The DECAF Score: predicting hospital mortality in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Thorax. 2012;67(11):970–976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alameda C, Matía ÁC, Casado V. Predictors for mortality due to acute exacerbation of COPD in primary care: protocol for the derivation of a clinical prediction rule. NPJ Prim Care Respir Med. 2016;26(16070): 1–3.
   Google Scholar
• Harrell FE. Chapter 4, multivariable modelling strategies. In: Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. 2nd ed. Basel (Switzerland): Springer International Publishing; 2015 p. 63–102.
   Google Scholar
• Steyerberg EW. Chapter 11, selection of main effects. In: Clinical prediction models: a practical approach to development, validation, and updating. New York (NY): Springer Science & Business Media; 2009. p. 191–212.
   Google Scholar
• Curley GF, Kavanagh BP, Laffey JG. Hypocapnia and hypercapnia. In: Broaddus VC, Mason RJ, Nadel JA, editors. Murray and Nadel’s textbook of respiratory medicine. 6th ed. Philadelphia (PA): Elsevier Saunders; 2016. p. 1527–1546.
   Google Scholar
• Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, et al. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. Br Med J. 2020;368:m441.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Graham JW, Olchowski AE, Gilreath TD. How many imputations are really needed? Some practical clarifications of multiple imputation theory. Prev Sci. 2007;8(3):206–213.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Soriano JB, Miravitlles M, Borderías L, et al. Geographical variations in the prevalence of COPD in Spain: relationship to smoking, death rates and other determining factors. Arch Bronconeumol Eng Ed. 2010;46(10):522–530.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Torén K, Murgia N, Olin AC, et al. Validity of physician-diagnosed COPD in relation to spirometric definitions of COPD in a general population aged 50–64 years – the SCAPIS pilot study. COPD. 2017;12:2269–2275.
   Google Scholar
• Inghammar M, Engström G, Löfdahl CG, et al. Validation of a COPD diagnosis from the Swedish Inpatient Registry. Scand J Public Health. 2012;40(8):773–776.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomsen RW, Lange P, Hellquist B, et al. Validity and underrecording of diagnosis of COPD in the Danish National Patient Registry. Respir Med. 2011;105(7):1063–1068.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steyerberg EW, Moons KGM, van der Windt DA, et al. Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research. PLOS Med. 2013;10:e100138.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miravitlles M, Mayordomo C, Artés M, et al. Treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and its exacerbations in general practice. EOLO Group. Estudio Observacional de la Limitación Obstructiva al flujo aéreo. Respir Med. 1999;93(3):173–179.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Altman DG, Royston P. The cost of dichotomising continuous variables. Br Med J. 2006;332(7549):1080
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boeck L, Soriano Joan B, Brusse-Keizer M, et al. Prognostic assessment in COPD without lung function: the B-AE-D indices. Eur Respir J. 2016;47(6):1635–1644.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar