Fiscal deficit forecasts in Europe: evidence for a double standard?

References

• Artis, M., & Marcellino, M. (2001). Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC. The Econometrics Journal, 4(1), 20–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00051
   Google Scholar
• Batchelor, R. (2001). How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus. Applied Economics, 33(2), 225–235. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840121785
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• BBC. (2019). Europe and nationalism: A country-by-country guide https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36130006, accessed: 08/05/2019.
   Google Scholar
• Beetsma, R., Bluhm, B., Giuliodori, M., & Wierts, P. (2013). From budgetary forecasts to ex post fiscal data: Exploring the evolution of fiscal forecast errors in the European Union. Contemporary Economic Policy, 31(4), 795–813. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2012.00337.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beetsma, R., Debrun, X., Fang, X., Kim, Y., Lledó, V., Mbaye, S., & Zhang, X. (2019). Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance. European Journal of Political Economy, 57, 53–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.07.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Belke, A. (2017). The fiscal compact and the excessive deficit procedure: Relics of bygone times? The Euro and the Crisis. Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, 43, 131–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45710-9_10
   Google Scholar
• Brück, T., & Stephan, A. (2006). Do Eurozone countries cheat with their budget deficit forecasts? Kyklos, 59(1), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2006.00317.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Corsetti, G., & Müller, G. J. (2006). Twin deficits: Squaring theory, evidence and common sense. Economic Policy, 21(48), 598–638. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00167.x
   Google Scholar
• De Jong, J. F. M., & Gilbert, N. D. (2020). Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the excessive deficit procedure. European Journal of Political Economy, 61, 101822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101822
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doray-Demers, P., & Foucault, M. (2017). The politics of fiscal rules within the European Union: A dynamic analysis of fiscal rules stringency. Journal of European Public Policy, 24(6), 852–870. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1296883
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• European Fiscal Board – EFB. (2020). 2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board, https://ec.europa.eu/info/files/2020-annual-report-european-fiscal-board_en, accessed: 13/12/2020.
   Google Scholar
• Frankel, J., & Schreger, J. (2013). Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 247–272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0150-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gidron, N., & Hall, P. A. (2017). The politics of social status: Economic and cultural roots of the populist right. British Journal of Sociology, 68(S1), S57–S84. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12319
   Google Scholar
• Guardian. (2018). How populism emerged as an electoral force in Europe, https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/nov/20/how-populism-emerged-as-electoral-force-in-europe, accessed: 08/05/2019.
   Google Scholar
• Jonung, L., & Larch, M. (2006). Improving fiscal policy in the EU: The case for independent forecasts. Economic Policy, 21(47), 492–534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x
   Google Scholar
• Leal, T., Pérez, J. J., Tujula, M., & Vidal, J. P. (2008). Fiscal forecasting: Lessons from the literature and challenges. Fiscal Studies, 29(3), 347–386. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2008.00078.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merola, R., & Pérez, J. J. (2013). Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies? European Journal of Political Economy, 32, 285–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.09.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Piersanti, G. (2000). Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: Some international evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19(2), 255–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00004-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pina, A. M., & Venes, N. M. (2011). The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(3), 534–546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.01.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Poniatowski, G., Bonch-Osmolovskiy, M., Duran-Cabré, J. M., Esteller-More, A., & Śmietanka, A. (2018). Study and reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 member states: 2018 Final report. SSRN Electronic Journal, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272816
   Google Scholar
• Pons, J. (2000). The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries. Journal of Forecasting, 19(1), 53–63. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(200001)19:1<53::AID-FOR736>3.0.CO;2-J
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reuter, W. H. (2015). National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective? European Journal of Political Economy, 39, 67–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reuters. (2018). European Commission must treat Italy and France in same way – Salvini. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-salvini-france/european-commission-must-treat-italy-and-france-in-same-way-salvini-idUSKBN1OB1BG, accessed: 27/03/2019.
   Google Scholar
• Schuknecht, L., Moutot, P., Rother, P., & Stark, J. (2011). The stability and growth pact: Crisis and reform. CESifo DICE Report.
   Google Scholar
• Wyplosz, C. (2012). Fiscal rules: Theoretical issues and historical experiences. NBER Working Paper 17884, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17884
   Google Scholar