Conceptual framework for adaptive management of coupled human and natural systems with respect to climate change uncertainty

References

• Andriantiatsaholiniaina, LA, Kouikoglou, VS & Phillis, YA 2004, ‘Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis’, Ecological Economics, vol. 48, pp. 149–172. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2003.08.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baron, JS, Gunderson, L, Allen, CD, Fleishman, E, McKenzie, D, Meyerson, LA, Oropeza, J & Stevenson, N 2009, ‘Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change’, Environmental Management, vol. 44, pp. 1033–1042. doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9296-6
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Berger, PA 2006, ‘Generating agricultural landscapes for alternative futures analysis: a multiple attribute decision-making model’, Transactions in GIS, vol. 10, pp. 103–120. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9671.2006.00246.x
   Google Scholar
• Carlsson, C & Fuller, R 1996, ‘Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making: recent developments’, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 78, pp. 139–153. doi: 10.1016/0165-0114(95)00165-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, C-T 2000, ‘Extensions to the TOPSIS for group decision-making under fuzzy environment’, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, vol. 114, pp. 1–9. doi: 10.1016/S0165-0114(97)00377-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, SJ & Hwang, CL 1992, ‘Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making’, Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, No. 375, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
   Google Scholar
• Göransson, G, Norrman, J, Larson, M & Rosén, A 2014. ‘A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers’, Science of the Total Environment, vol. 472, pp. 481–495. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.013
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregory, R, Ohlson, D & Arvai, J 2006, ‘Deconstructing adaptive management: criteria for applications to environmental management’, Ecological Applications, vol. 16, pp. 2411–2425. doi: 10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[2411:DAMCFA]2.0.CO;2
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gunderson, LH & Light, SS 2006, ‘Adaptive management and adaptive governance in the Everglades’, Policy Science, vol. 39, pp. 323–334. doi: 10.1007/s11077-006-9027-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hilborn, R 1992, ‘Can fisheries agencies learn from experience?’, Fisheries, vol. 17, pp. 6–14. doi: 10.1577/1548-8446(1992)017<0006:CFALFE>2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holling, CS 1978, Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, Wiley, Chichester, UK.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC 2014, Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, viewed 10 February 2016, http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/.
   Google Scholar
• Klir, GJ & Yuan, B 1995, Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic: theory and applications, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ.
   Google Scholar
• Kohm, KA & Franklin, JF 1997, ‘Introduction’, in KA Kohm & JF Franklin (eds.), Creating forestry for the 21st century: the science of ecosystem management, Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 1–5.
   Google Scholar
• Land and Water Australia 2009, ‘Adaptive management of environmental flows in the regulated Macquarie River,’ viewed 13 April 2016, <http://lwa.gov.au/node/3213>.
   Google Scholar
• Li, X, Nour, M, Smith, DW, Prepas, EE, Putz, G & Watson, B 2008, ‘Incorporating water quantity and quality modelling into forest management’, The Forestry Chronicle, vol. 84, pp. 338–348. doi: 10.5558/tfc84338-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, J, Dietz, T, Carpenter, SR, Alberti, M, Folke, C, Moran, E, Pell, AN, Deadman, P, Kratz, T, Lubchenco, J, Ostrom, E, Ouyang, Z, Provencher, W, Redman, CL, Schneider, SH & Taylor, WW 2007, ‘Complexity of coupled human and natural systems’, Science, vol. 317, pp. 1513–1516. doi: 10.1126/science.1144004
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Logsdon, RA & Chaubey, I 2013, ‘A quantitative approach to evaluating ecosystem services’, Ecological Modelling, vol. 257, pp. 57–65.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McCann, RK, Marcot, BG & Ellis, R 2006, ‘Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management’, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 36, pp. 3053–3062. doi: 10.1139/x06-238
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mosadeghi, R, Warnken, J, Tomlinson, R & Mirfenderesk, H 2013,’ Uncertainty analysis in the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in Australian strategic environmental decisions’, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, vol. 56, pp. 1097–1124. doi: 10.1080/09640568.2012.717886
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• National Park Service 2005, Interagency bison management plan: a status review of adaptive management elements, 2000 to 2005, National Park Service, USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA Forest Service, Montana Department of Livestock, & Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, viewed 10 February 2015, <http://www.nps.gov/yell/naturescience/upload/bmpstatusreview.pdf>.
   Google Scholar
• The National Park Service Organic Act 1916, viewed 27 October 2016, <http://web.archive.org/web/20080413094946>/<http://www.nps.gov/legacy/organic-act.htm>.
   Google Scholar
• Nyberg, JB 1998, ‘Statistics and the practice of adaptive management’, in V Sit & B Taylor (eds.), Statistical Methods for Adaptive Management Studies, Land Management Handbook No. 42, Ministry of Forests Research Program, Victoria, BC, pp. 1–8, viewed 10 February 2015, <http://static.adaptivemanagement.net/sites/default/files/Statistical%20Methods%20for%20AM%20Studies.pdf>.
   Google Scholar
• Nyberg, JB, Marcot, BG & Sulyma, R 2006, ‘Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management’, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, vol. 36, pp. 3104–3116. doi: 10.1139/x06-108
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Olive, ND & Marion, JL 2009, ‘The influence of use-related, environmental, and managerial factors on soil loss from recreational trails’, Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 90, pp. 1483–1493. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.10.004
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parkes, JP, Robley, A, Forsyth, DM & Choquenot, D 2006, ‘Adaptive management experiments in vertebrate pest control in New Zealand and Australia’, Wildlife Society Bulletin, vol. 34, pp. 229–236. doi: 10.2193/0091-7648(2006)34[229:AMEIVP]2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parks Canada 2013, Banff National Park of Canada: ecosystem management and ecosystem models, viewed 10 February 2015, <http://www.pc.gc.ca/eng/pn-np/ab/banff/plan/gestion-management/approche-eco-mgmt.aspx>.
   Google Scholar
• Parma, AM 1998, ‘What can adaptive management do for our fish, forest, food, and biodiversity?’, Integrative Biology, vol. 1, pp. 16–26. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1520-6602(1998)1:1<16::AID-INBI3>3.0.CO;2-D
   Google Scholar
• Pescott, OL & Stewart, GB 2014, ‘Assessing the impact of human trampling on vegetation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental evidence’, PeerJ, vol. 2, p. e360, viewed 13 April 2016, <https://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.360>.
   Google Scholar
• Phillis, YA & Andriantiatsaholiniaina, LA 2001, ‘Sustainability: an ill-defined concept and its assessment using fuzzy logic’, Ecological Economics, vol. 37, pp. 435–456. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00290-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prato, T 2006, ‘Adaptive management of national park ecosystems’, George Wright Forum, vol. 23, pp. 72–86.
   Google Scholar
• Prato, T 2007, ‘Assessing ecosystem sustainability and management using fuzzy logic’, Ecological Economics, vol. 61, pp. 171–177. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.08.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prato, T 2009, ‘Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas’, Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 90, pp. 551–2557. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.01.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prato, T 2012, ‘Increasing resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change: a fuzzy adaptive management approach’, Ecological Modelling, vol. 242, pp. 46–53. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Richardson, JW, Schumann, KD & Feldman, PA 2008, Simetar: simulation and econometrics to analyze risk, College Station, TX, viewed 11 May 2015, <http://simetar.com/Portals/18/Simetar%202011%20Users%20Manual.pdf>.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, KE, Stouffer, RJ & Meehl, GA 2012, ‘An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 93, pp. 485–498, viewed 13 April 2016, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
   Google Scholar
• US Army Corps of Engineers 2006, Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Adaptive Management Strategy, US Army Corps of Engineers, South Florida Water Management District, viewed 10 February 2015, <http://www.evergladesplan.org/pm/recover/recover_docs/am/rec_am_stategy_brochure.pdf>.
   Google Scholar
• US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation 2013, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, viewed 10 February 2015, <http://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/amp/amwg/amwg_index.html>.
   Google Scholar
• Walters, C 1996, Adaptive management of renewable resources, Macmillan and Co., New York.
   Google Scholar
• Walters, CJ & Hilborn, R 1978, ‘Ecological optimization and adaptive management’, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, vol. 9, pp. 157–188. doi: 10.1146/annurev.es.09.110178.001105
   Google Scholar
• Walters, CJ & Holling, CS 1990. ‘Large-scale management experiments and learning by doing’, Ecology, vol. 71, pp. 2060–2068. doi: 10.2307/1938620
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weeks, K, Moore, P & Welling, L 2011, ‘Climate change scenario planning: a tool for managing parks into uncertain futures’, Park Science, vol. 28, pp. 26–33.
   Google Scholar
• Wheatbelt Natural Resource Management 2015, Adaptive management, viewed 13 February 2015, <http://www.nrmstrategy.com.au/adaptive-management>.
   Google Scholar
• Williams, BK 2011, ‘Adaptive management of natural resources–framework and issues’, Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 92, pp. 1346–1353. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.10.041
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Woodley, S 2002, ‘Planning and managing for ecological integrity in Canada’s national parks’, in P, Dearden & R, Rollins (eds.), Parks and protected areas in Canada: planning and management (2nd ed), Oxford University Press, Dons Mills, Ontario, pp. 97–114.
   Google Scholar