118
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Heuristics associated with forecasting chaotic events: a rare cognitive ability

, , , , &
Pages 457-487 | Received 25 Jan 2020, Accepted 24 Aug 2020, Published online: 13 Oct 2020

References

  • Abraham, R. H., and C. D. Shaw. 1992. Dynamics, the Geometry of Behavior (2nd ed.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
  • Allen, P., B. McKelvey, and S. Maguire. (Eds.). 2011. SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. doi:10.4135/9781446201084.
  • Azghandi, R., J. Griffin, and M. S. Jalali. 2018. “Minimization of Drug Shortages in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains: A Simulation-Based Analysis of Drug Recall Patterns and Inventory Policies.” Complexity 2018: 1–14. doi:10.1155/2018/6348413.
  • Baber, C., and R. McMaster. 2016. Grasping the Moment: Sensemaking in Response to Routine Incidents and Major Emergencies.” Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
  • Bildirici, M. E., and F. Ö. Sonüstün. 2019. “Chaotic Structure of Oil Prices, Inflation and Unemployment.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 23: 377–394.
  • Boisot, M., and B. McKelvey. 2011. “Complexity and Organization-Environment Relations: Revisiting Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety.” In SAGE Handbook of Complexity and Management, edited by P. Allen, B. McKelvey, and S. Maguire, 279–298. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. doi:10.4135/9781446201084.
  • Bott, L., and E. Heit. 2004. “Nonmonotonic Extrapolation in Function Learning.” Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition 30 (1): 38–50. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.30.1.38.
  • Brehmer, B. 1974. “Hypotheses about Relations between Scaled Variables in the Learning of Probabilistic Inference Tasks.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 11 (1): 1–27. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(74)90002-6.
  • Brehmer, B. 1987. “Development of Mental Models for Decision in Technological Systems.” In New Technology and Human Error, edited by J. Rasmussen, K. Duncan, and J. Leplat, 111–120. New York: Wiley.
  • Brehmer, B. 2005. “Micro-Worlds and the Circular Relation between People and Their Environment.” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 6: 73–94. doi:10.1080/14639220512331311580.
  • Chiappe, D., T. Z. Strybel, and K.-P L. Vu. 2012. “Mechanisms for the Acquisition of Situation Awareness in Situated Agents.” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 13 (6): 625–647. doi:10.1080/1463922X.2011.611267.
  • Chiappe, D., T. Z. Strybel, and K.-P L. Vu. 2015. “A Situated Approach to the Understanding of Dynamic Systems.” Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 9 (1): 33–43. doi:10.1177/1555343414559053.
  • Dal Forno, A., and U. Merlone. 2013. “Nonlinear Dynamics in Work Groups with Bion’s Basic Assumptions.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 17: 295–315.
  • DeLosh, E. L., J. R. Busemeyer, and M. A. McDaniel. 1997. “Extrapolation: The Sine Qua Non for Abstraction in Function Learning.” Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition 23 (4): 968–986. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.23.4.968.
  • Dooley, K. J. 2009. “The Butterfly Effect of the ‘Butterfly Effect.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 13: 279–288.
  • Dore, M. H. I., and J. B. Rosser. Jr. 2007. “Do Nonlinear Dynamics in Economic Amount to a Kuhnian Paradigm?” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 11: 119–148.
  • Elg, F. 2005. “Leveraging Intelligence for High Performance in Complex Dynamic Systems Requires Balanced Goals.” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 6: 63–72. doi:10.1080/14639220512331311571.
  • Endsley, M. R. 2015. “Situation Awareness Misconceptions and Misunderstandings.” Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 9 (1): 4–32. doi:10.1177/1555343415572631.
  • Endsley, M. R., B. Bolté, and D. G. Jones. 2003. Designing for Situation Awareness: An Approach to User-Centered Design. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
  • Eoyang, G. H. 1997. Coping with Chaos: Seven Simple Tools.” Cheyenne, WY: Laguno.
  • Faggini, M. 2009. “Chaos and Chaotic Dynamics in Economics.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 13: 327–340.
  • Farazmand, A. 2007. “Learning from the Katrina Crisis: A Global and International Perspective with Implications for Future Crisis Management.” Public Administration Review 67 (suppl. 1): 149–159. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6210.2007.00824.x.
  • Gonzalez-Cava, J. M., J. A. Reboso, J. L. Casteleiro-Roca, J. L. Calvo-Rolle, and J. A. M. Pérez. 2018. “A Novel Fuzzy Algorithm to Introduce New Variables in the Drug Supply Decision-Making Process in Medicine.” Complexity 2018: 1–15. 9012720. doi:10.1155/2018/9012720.
  • Guastello, S. J., and Gregson, R. A. M. (Eds.). 2011. Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences Using Real Data.” Boca Raton, FL: C R C Press/Taylor and Francis.
  • Guastello, S. J. 2002. Managing Emergent Phenomena: Nonlinear Dynamics in Work Organizations. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
  • Guastello, S. J. 2017. “Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Theory and Research in Ergonomics.” Ergonomics 60 (2): 167–193. doi:10.1080/00140139.2016.1162851.
  • Guastello, S. J., W. Futch, and L. Mirabito. 2020. “Cognitive Workload and Fatigue Dynamics in a Chaotic Forecasting Task.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences. 24: 179–213.
  • Guastello, S. J., and L. Liebovitch. 2009. “Introduction to Nonlinear Dynamics and Complexity.” In Chaos and Complexity in Psychology: Theory of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems, edited by S. J. Guastello, M. Koopmans, and D. Pincus, 1–40. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Guastello, S. J., and A. Myers. 2009. “Unemployment and Inflation Dynamics Prior to the Economic Downturn of 2007-2008.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 13 (4): 445–466.
  • Guastello, S. J., K. Reiter, M. Malon, P. Timm, A. Shircel, and J. Shaline. 2015. “Catastrophe Models for Cognitive Workload and Fatigue in N-Back Tasks.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 19: 173–200.
  • Guastello, S. J., W. Futch, L. Mirabito, D. Green, L. Marsicek, and B. Witty. (2019, August). “The Prediction of Chaotic Events, Heuristics Used, and the Prediction of a Rare Skill.” Paper Presented to the 29th Annual International Conference of the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences, Orange, CA.
  • Haken, H. 1984. The Science of Structure: Synergetics. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
  • Heath, R. A. 2002. “Can People Predict Chaotic Sequences?” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 6 (1): 37–54. doi:10.1023/A:1012206002844.
  • Hoffman, R. R., D. S. LaDue, H. M. Mogil, P. J. Roebber, and J. G. Trafton. 2017. Minding the Weather: How Expert Forecasters Think. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Hommes, C. H., and J. B. Rosser. Jr. 2001. “Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 5 (02): 180–203. doi:10.1017/S1365100501019034.
  • Horgan, J. 1997. The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. New York: Broadway Books.
  • Hurst, H. E. 1951. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers. 116: 770–808.
  • Kaplan, D., and L. Glass. 1995. Understanding Nonlinear Dynamics. New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • Karwowski, W. 2012. “A Review of Human Factors Challenges of Complex Adaptive Systems: Discovering and Understanding Chaos in Human Performance.” Human Factors 54 (6): 983–995. doi:10.1177/0018720812467459.
  • Koehler, G. 1995. “Fractals and Path-Dependent Processes: A Theoretical Approach for Characterizing Emergency Medical Responses in Major Disasters.” In Chaos Theory in Psychology and the Life Sciences, edited by R. Robertson and A. Combs, 199–216. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
  • Lorenz, E. N. 1963. “Deterministic Periodic Flow.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20 (2): 130–141. doi:10.1177/0309133308091948.
  • May, R. M., and G. F. Oster. 1976. “Bifurcations and Dynamic Complexity in Simple Ecological Models.” The American Naturalist 110 (974): 573–599. doi:10.1086/283092.
  • McDaniel, R. R.Jr., and D. J. Driebe. 2005. Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems. New York: Springer.
  • McDaniel, M. A., and J. R. Busemeyer. 2005. “The Conceptual Basis of Function Learning and Extrapolation: Comparison of Rule-Based and Associative-Based Models.” Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 12 (1): 24–42. doi:10.3758/bf03196347.
  • Medvinsky, A. B. 2009. “Chaos and Predictability in Population Dynamics.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 13: 311–326.
  • Metzger, M. A. 1994. “Have Subjects Been Shown to Generate Chaotic Numbers? Commentary on Neuringer and Voss.” Psychological Science 5 (2): 111–114. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.1994.tb00641.x.
  • Metzger, M. A., and M. F. Theisz. 1994. “Forecast: Program to Obtain Forecasts from Subjects for Successive Values of Chaotic Time Series.” Behavioral Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers 26 (4): 387–294. doi:10.3758/BF03204654.
  • Michaels, M. D. 1989. “The Chaos Paradigm.” Organizational Development Journal 7 (2): 31–35.
  • Neuringer, A., and C. Voss. 1993. “Approximating Chaotic Behavior.” Psychological Science 4 (2): 113–119. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.1993.tb00471.x.
  • Olivares Vera, D. A., E. Olivares-Benitez, E. Puente Rivera, M. López-Campos, and P. A. Miranda. 2018. “Combined Used of Mathematical Optimization and Design of Experiments for the Maximization of Profit in a Four-Echelon Supply Chain.” Complexity 2018: 1–25. doi:10.1155/2018/8731027.
  • Osman, M. 2010. “Controlling Uncertainty: A Review of Human Behavior in Complex Dynamic Environments.” Psychological Bulletin 136 (1): 65–86. doi:10.1037/a0017815.
  • Ozaki, T. 2012. Time Series Modeling of Neuroscience Data. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
  • Ritz, H., M. R. Nassar, M. J. Frank, and A. Shenhav. 2018. “A Control Theoretic Model of Adaptive Learning in Dynamic Environments.” Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 30 (10): 1405–1421. doi:10.1162/jocn_a_01289.
  • Rosser, J. B.Jr. 1997. “Speculations on Nonlinear Speculative Bubbles.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 1: 275–300.
  • Rosser, J. B.Jr. 2000. From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic.
  • Rosser, J. B., Jr., and M. V. Rosser. 2015. “Complexity and Behavioral Economics.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 19: 201–226.
  • Ruelle, D. 1991. Chance and Chaos. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Schuldberg, D. 2015. “What is Optimum Variability?” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 19: 553–568.
  • Schulz, E., J. B. Tenenbaum, D. Duvenaud, M. Speekenbrink, and S. J. Gershman. 2017. “Compositional Inductive Biases in Function Learning.” Cognitive Psychology 99: 44–79. doi:10.1016/j.cogpsyc.2017.11.002.
  • Sharma, S., and V. G. Ivancevic. 2010. “Nonlinear Dynamical Characteristics of Situation Awareness.” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 11 (5): 448–460. doi:10.1080/14639220902866718.
  • Smith, L. 2007. Chaos: A Very Short Introduction. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
  • Smith, T. J., R. Henning, M. G. Wade, and T. Fisher. 2015. Variability in Human Performance. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
  • Smithson, M. 1997. “Judgment under Chaos.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 69 (1): 59–66. doi:10.1006/obhd.1996.2672.
  • Sorger, G. 1998. “Imperfect Foresight and Chaos: An Example of a Self-Fulfilling Mistake.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 33 (3-4): 363–383. doi:10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00063-2.
  • Sprott, J. C. 2003. Chaos and Time Series Analysis. New York: Oxford.
  • Sprott, J. C. 2009. “Simplifications of the Lorenz Attractor.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 13: 271–278.
  • Sprott, J. C. 2013. “Is Chaos Good for Learning?” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 17: 223–232.
  • Sprott, J. C., and G. Rowlands. 1995. The Chaos Data Analyzer: The Professional Version, User’s Manual. New York, NY: American Institute of Physics.
  • Stamovlasis, D., and J. Vaiopoulou. 2017. “The Role of Dysfunctional Myths in a Decision-Making Process under Bounded Rationality: A Complex Dynamical Systems Perspective.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 21: 267–288.
  • Sterman, J. 1988. “Deterministic Models of Chaos in Human Behavior: Methodological Issues and Experimental Results.” System Dynamics Review 4 (1-2): 148–178. doi:10.1002/sdr.4260040109.
  • Sterman, J. 1989. “Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 43 (3): 301–335. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90041-1.
  • Sterman, J. 1994. “Learning in and about Complex Systems.” System Dynamics Review 10 (2-3): 291–330. doi:10.1002/sdr.4260100214.
  • Theiler, J., and S. Eubank. 1993. “Don’t Bleach Chaotic Data.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 3 (4): 771–782. doi:10.1063/1.165936.
  • Trianni, V. 2008. Evolutionary Swarm Robotics: Evolving Self-Organizing Behaviors in Groups of Autonomous Robots. Berlin: Springer.
  • Vallacher, R. R., A. Nowak, and M. Zochowski. 2005. “Dynamics of Social Coordination: The Synchronization of Internal States.” Interaction Studies 6: 35–52.
  • Ward, L. M., and R. L. West. 1998. “Modeling Human Chaotic Behavior: Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis of Logistic Iteration.” Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 2 (4): 261–282. doi:10.1023/A:1022957921056.
  • West, B. J., and N. Scarfetta. 2010. Disrupted Networks: From Physics to Climate Change. Singapore: World Scientific.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.