NOTES
- 2002 . Discussion Paper Geneva : United Nations Conference on Trade and Development . See, for example, Yilmaz Akyüz and Korkut Boratav, “The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis,”, No. 158 (April
- Knowles , James C. , Pernia , Ernesto M. and Racelis , Mary . 1999 . “Social Consequences of the Financial Crisis in Asia,” . Manila Social Forum , : 1 See p
- Increasing distress in the banking sector, two major earthquakes, the sharp increase of public sector deficits, and the decline of GNP by 4.7 percent would also justify the classification of 1999 as a year of crisis
- Köse , Ahmet H. and Erinç Yeldan , A. “Turkish Economy in the 1990s: An Assessment of Fiscal Policies, Labor Markets and Foreign Trade,” . New Perspectives on Turkey , 18 52 See (Spring 1998),p
- World Bank . 2000 . Turkey—Economic Reforms, Living Standards and Social Welfare Study Ankara : World Bank .
- State Planning Organization (SPO) . March 2002 . Main Economic Indicators March , 129 Avrupa Eğitim Vakfi [Europe Education Foundation], Mesleki ve Eğitim Sistemi Raporu [Report on Occupation and Education System] (Ankara: Avrupa Eğitim Vakfi, 2002), p. 218
- Unless otherwise stated, figures given in this section are from World Bank . 2000 .
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) . 2001 . İnsani Gelişme Raporu Türkiye 2001 [Human Development Report Turkey 2001] 3 Ankara : UNDP .
- June 2002 . Ekonomik Göstergeler [Economic Indicators] June , 16 The share of indirect taxes in total tax revenue increased steadily from 47.8 percent in 1991 to 57.6 percent in 1995 and 59.1 percent in 2000. Başbakanlik Hazine Müsteşarliği [Undersecretariat of Treasury],p
- İşveren Sendikalari Konfederasyonu , Türkiye . 2000 . “ (TİSK—Turkish Confederation of Employer Associations) ” . In Avrupa Birliği'nin Sosyal Politika Gündemi [Social Policy Agenda of the European Union] 10 Ankara : TİSK .
- Tansel , Aysit . 2000 . “Wage-Earners, Self-Employed and Gender in the Informal Sector in Turkey,” . In METU Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics Ankara : METU . The corresponding ratio for the self-employed was 42 percent for men and 82 percent for women.See, No.00/15 (p,7
- Weller , Christian E. 2001 . “Financial Crises after Financial Liberalisation: Exceptional Circumstances or Structural Weakness?,” . Journal of Development Studies , 38 : 98 – 127 . For the role of financial liberalization in the emergence of crises in emerging economies, see, No. 1 (Oct. Erinç Yeldan, Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, Bölüşüm, Birikim ve Büyüme [The Turkish Economy in the Process of Globalization: Distribution, Accumulation and Growth] (Istanbul: İletişim, 2001)
- 2001 . The new survey, which was originally scheduled for but cancelled due to the crisis, is now under way
- 2001 . Yillik Rapor [Annual Report] 96 Ankara : TCMB . Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB—Central Bank of Turkey),(p
- Hazine Müsteşarliği , Başbakanlik . June 2002 . “ [Undersecretariat of Treasury] ” . In Ekonomik Göstergeler [Economic Indicators] June , 5
- 2001 . 223 TCMBp. In construction, construction permits issued by the municipalities declined from 61,695 in 2000 to 56,046 the following year. (Permits are expressed in units of 1,000m2.) TCMB (2001),p. 227
- Sönmez , Mustafa . 2001 . “Hangi İl, Krizden Nasil Etkileniyor?” [What is the Effect of the Crisis on Individual Provinces?] ” . In BİA (May 8, see <http://www.bianet.org/diger/tartisma2159.htm>. The title of this piece was downloaded from <http://www.bianet.org/diger/tartisma2159.htm>
- Aygün , Sinan . “Türkiye Dönüm Noktasinda” [Turkey at a Crossroads] ” . In Zaman See (Aug. 15 2002), <http://www.zaman.com.tr/2002/08/15/yorumlar/default.htmS>
- May 2001 . Selüloz-İş , No.68 May , 29 See
- Güvenç , Kaya . June-July 2001 . “Türkiye Siyasi İradenin Emekten Yana Tecelli Etmesiyle Kurtulabilir” [Turkey Can be Saved if Political Will manifests itself on the side of Labor] ” . In Tes-İş Dergisi 26
- 2002 . The report on people who became unemployed as a result of the crisis—prepared by the Science, Management and Culture Platform of the Republican Peoples Party (RPP)—was announced in May and was widely reported in the Turkish press
- SPO . 2002 . 129
- Ibid 131
- Onaran , Özlem . 2000 . “Labor Market Flexibility during Structural Adjustment in Turkey,” . In Discussion Papers in Management Engineering 5 Istanbul : Istanbul Technical University . Similar tendencies were observed during the 1994 crisis when some firms—to shield themselves against the rising severance pay rates of workers with more than five years of service—laid-off experienced workers and substituted them with inexperienced workers soon afterwards.See, No.00/1
- Tansel , Aysit . 1999 . “Public Employment as a Social Protection Mechanism,” . In Economic Research Center Working Papers in Economics 10 Ankara : Middle East Technical University . For a list of measures taken during 1994 to restrain and cut back public employment, see, No.00/14
- During the East Asian crisis, for example, the increase in unemployment was estimated at around 20 million
- SPO . 2002 . 130 See pp. For details of the effects of the Asian crisis on unemployment, see Manila Social Forum (1999. Contrary to the figures of 2001, 2000 showed a very sharp increase in both these indicators. This, coupled with the fact that, compared with informal channels, the Turkish Employment Service is not regarded as the most effective channel for searching for a job—a tendency which may have been strengthened during the crisis when all channels probably lost their effectiveness—leads to the puzzling results shown above
- Eğitim Vakfi , Avrupa . 2002 . 229
- 2002 . 232 The sharpest increase in unemployment was in the 15–24 age group, whose share in total unemployment rose sharply from 26.0 percent to 32.8 percent during 2001 (ibid.,p.) Furthermore, the rise in unemployment was much more rapid in urban areas, rising from 8.2 percent to 13.2 percent during the same period. See SPOp. 129
- 2002 . 218 Based on Avrupa Eğitim Vakfip. The underemployment rate, which might be another indicator in this respect, actually declined from 6.9 percent to 6.0 percent during this period
- World Bank . 2000 . 70 In the manufacturing sector, for example, the real wage index declined by a massive 25 percentage points during the period from the last quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 1997. See Köse and Yeldan1998p. 74
- Petrol-İş . 2001 . Yeni Gibi Sunulan Eski Bir Program[An Old Program Presented as New] 20 Istanbul : Petrol-İş . See
- 2001 . Selüloz-İş 29 It seems that even large and modern firms such as Brisa have resorted to such practices. Seep
- 2000 . 18 – 19 . The non-wage adjustments in 1994 were confined largely to the adoption of “flexible” arrangements like part-time work, subcontracting to other firms, and reduction of working hours through paid and unpaid forced holidays. Although there was an increase in unemployment by around 600,000 persons, this was primarily the result of depressed domestic activity rather than mass redundancies—as in 2001. For a discussion of the effect of the 1994 crisis on the labor market, see Onaranpp., and Köse and Yeldan (1998,pp. 73–5
- 2002 . 200 The Turkish workforce is characterized by a notoriously low average level of schooling. In 2000 only 37.2 percent of workers had received more than five years of schooling. See Avrupa Eğitim Vakfip
- 2000 . This is confirmed by one recent study which—while accepting the role of unemployment, along with inflation, in increasing poverty—places casual/seasonal workers and the self-employed above the unemployed in the ranking of major poverty groups, with the self-employed constituting 45 percent of the poor. See World Bank p.ix
- World Bank . 2000 . 51
- Sönmez , Mustafa . 2002 . 100 Göstergede Kriz ve Yoksullaşma [100 Indicators of Crisis and Impoverishment] 51 Istanbul : İletişim . See
- Erdoğan , Necmi , ed. 2002 . Yoksulluk Halleri, Türkiye'de Kent Yoksulluğunun Toplumsal Görünümleri [Conditions of Poverty, Social Aspects of Urban Poverty in Turkey] Istanbul : Demokrasi Kitapliği Yayinevi . See, for example, (ed.), (Sönmez (2002); unpublished studies as widely reported in the press by Sencer Ayata, Milliyet (July 6, 7, and 9, 2002); Ayşe Buğra and Çağlar Keyder, Milliyet Oct. 22, 2002. All were quoted in the column by Meral Tamer at <http://www.milliyet.com.tr/>
- These numbers increased by a further 1.4 million and 1.0 million respectively by September 2002
- 2000 . 61 According to World Bankp., as a result of the considerable leakage of benefits to the non-poor population, only 4.7 percent of the poor were taking advantage of the scheme in 1995
- For the sharp increase in the number of applicants to the Istanbul office of the SASF for aid, see Milliyet, Oct. 6, 2002. It seems the number of people utilizing the various soup kitchens operated by different municipalities in Istanbul has also increased substantially. See Milliyet, Oct. 12, 2002
- TCMB . 2001 . 65
- 2001 . Doğu Bati , 4 ( No.14 ) : 215 Some observers argue that even this may be underestimating the exact figure due to lack of transparency for such expenditures. For a discussion of this issue, see C. Emre Alper and Ziya Öniş, “Finansal Küreselleşme, Demokrasi Açiği ve Yükselen Piyasalarda Yaşanan Sürekli Krizler: Sermaye Hareketlerinin Liberalleşmesi Sonrasinda Türkiye Deneyimi” [Financial Globalization, Democratic Deficit and Persistent Crises in Emerging Markets: The Turkish Experience after Capital Account Liberalization],p
- BHM;Temel Göstergeler (June 2002), p. 18
- 2001 . 26 In the third quarter of 2001, for instance, non-wage public consumption fell by a massive 29.8 percent—as opposed to 14.3 percent for total public sector consumption. TCMBp
- Eğitim Vakfi , Avrupa . 2002 . Tables 1, 2, and 3
- 1998 . The share of the revolving fund earnings in total Ministry of Health expenditure, for example, increased from 14 percent in 1988 to 18 percent in 1994 and increased further to 28 percent
- 2001 . 26 In the second quarter of 2001, when the drop in consumption was the most severe, expenditure on consumer durables fell by a massive 36.1 percent, light consumption goods by 12.5 percent, food by 4.5 percent, and services by 11.5 percent—as opposed to 11.6 percent for total private consumption. TCMBp
- 2000 . 26 See World Bankp
- June 2002 . June , 16 See Başbakanlik Hazine Müsteşarliği
- 2001 . 217 On the first day of the crisis, for example, interbank overnight interest rates rose from 45 percent to 6,200 percent. See Alper and Önişp
- The RPP survey showed that in 80 percent of cases family life was negatively affected by the crisis, with nearly one-fifth of the survey respondents reporting intra-family problems resulting in divorce
- May 4 2002 . Milliyet May 4 , From the outbreak of the crisis at the beginning of 2001 until March 2002 a total of 45 firms sold more than 50 percent, 31 firms 50 percent, and another 58 firms less than 50 percent of their shares to foreign buyers. See
- The fact that opinion polls have consistently shown that a large section of the population is dissatisfied with existing political parties and the rise of political movements known—at least initially—for their challenge of the whole system are pointers in this direction
- To be fair to the government, the opposition parties also seemed to have been taken aback by the intensity and scale of the crisis and did not engage themselves in an all-out anti-government campaign based on issues like poverty and income distribution
- Manila Social Forum . 1999 . “Mitigating the Social Costs of the Asian Crisis,” . Finance and Development , 35 ( No.3 ) : 1 and IMF, (Sept. 1998),p. 20
- 1998 . 21 IMFp
- Lustig , Nora and Walton , Michael . May 29 1998 . “Latin American Crisis and Social Costs: What Lessons for Asia?,” . In International Herald Tribune May 29 , See
- Demokrat , Sosyal and Partisi , Halk . 2002 . “ (Social Democratic Populist Party) ” . In Yoksulluğu Yenmek için Acil Plan (2003–2005) [Emergency Plan to Fight Poverty] 30 Ankara : Sosyal Demokrat Halk Partisi . See
- Yüksek Denetleme Kurulu , Başbakanlik . 2002 . “ [The Supreme Audit Board of Prime Ministry] ” . In Sosyal Yardimlaşma ve Dayamşmayi Teşvik Fonu, 2001 Raporu [2001 Report on the Social Assistance and Solidarity Encouragement Fund] 20 Ankara : Başbakanlik Yüksek Denetleme Kurulu . See
- Şenses , Fikret . Dec. 30, 2001 . “Yoksullukla Savaşim için de Yeni Bakiş Açilari Gereklidir” [New Perspectives are also Necessary to Fight Poverty] ” . In Cumhuriyet 2 A proposal to impose a one-off poverty tax to alleviate the plight of people in distress also fell upon deaf ears. See p
- 1998 . 20 – 21 . See IMF
- 2001 . Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Hybrid Investment/Adjustment Loan in the Amount of US$500 Million to the Republic of Turkey for a Social Risk Mitigation Project/Loan Report No: 22510-TU 2 Washington, DC : World Bank . For details, see World Bank,(p
- The same applies to the efforts of the UNDP in Turkey, which cover a wide range of spheres—from supporting poverty studies to the reduction of social, economic, and gender disparities in the least developed regions. For details, see <http://www.undp.org.tr>
- For example, in Karaköy, Istanbul, a group of self-employed burned a US dollar note “in protest against its sharp rise against the Turkish lira. In Şanliurfa, the demonstration was organized at the initiative of the local Chamber of Commerce and Industry with the participation of a total of 29 NGOs. They protested against the erosion of real wages, salaries, and agricultural incomes, unemployment, the closure of businesses, the lack of employment opportunities, and corruption and cronyism. Another demonstration in Narlidere, İzmir, by public sector employees and workers was remarkable in placing the blame for the crisis squarely on the IMF, the World Bank, and the government's incapacity and neglect of its social responsibilities, in that order
- Tisk . 2002 . İşveren , 40 ( No.12 ) : 41 See (Sept. p
- Işik , Oğuz and Melih Pmarcioğlu , M. 2001 . Nöbetleşe Yoksulluk Sultanbeyli Örneği [Taking Turns in Poverty, The Case of Sultanbeyli] Istanbul : İletişim . On the strength of these mechanisms, see
- 2000 . 83 For multigenerational factors, see World Bankp
- Ibid vi (emphasis added)
- On the issue of a simple poverty index, see Fikret Şenses, “Yoksulluk, Kaygi Veriyor” [Poverty is Worrying], Milliyet, Dec. 2, 1997; <http://www.milliyet.com.tr/>
- An interesting feature of the Turkish economy—and the labor market in particular—which merits further exploration is what I would call the Summer House Effect (SHE) involving population movements on a large scale over and above the normal population movements through internal tourism and seasonal labor migration. Although it is hard to establish its actual size, judging from the large number of summer homes in a large number of holiday resorts the figures involved are probably very large. The fact that this high level of economic activity lasts up to six months, if not more, reinforces the informality in both the goods and factor markets
- 1998 . Journal of Developing Areas , 32 Summer : 474 In Latin America during the 1980s, for example, poverty increased in 55 of the 58 cases of recession. Conversely, a drop in poverty occurred in only 22 out of the 32 recoveries. See John Gafar, “Poverty, Income Growth, and Inequality in Some Caribbean Countries,”
- Rodrik , Dani . 1996 . “Understanding Economic Policy Reform,” . Journal of Economic Literature , 34 ( No.1 ) March : 9 – 11 .