References
- Afionis, S., Sakai, M., Scott, K., Barrett, J., & Gouldson, A. (2017). Consumption-based carbon accounting: Does it have a future? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8(1), e438. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.438
- Altieri, K. E., Trollip, H., Caetano, T., Hughes, A., Merven, B., & Winkler, H. (2016). Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa. Climate Policy, 16, S78–S91. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250
- Anderson, K., Broderick, J. F., & Stoddard, I. (2020). A factor of two: How the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways. Climate Policy, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1728209
- Anderson, K., & Peters, G. (2016). The trouble with negative emissions. Science, 354(6309), 182–183. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4567
- Bankes, S. (1993). Exploratory Modeling for policy analysis. Operations Research, 41(3), 435–449. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.3.435
- Barazza, E., & Strachan, N. (2020). The impact of heterogeneous market players with bounded-rationality on the electricity sector low-carbon transition. Energy Policy, 138, 111274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111274
- Bataille, C. (2019). Physical and policy pathways to net-zero emissions industry. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(2), e633.
- Bataille, C., & Melton, N. (2017). Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012. Energy Economics, 64, 118–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.03.008
- Bistline, J., Budolfson, M., & Francis, B. (2020). Deepening transparency about value-laden assumptions in energy and environmental modelling: Improving best practices for both modellers and non-modellers. Climate Policy, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1781048
- Brand, C., Anable, J., & Morton, C. (2018). Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: Modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach. Energy Efficiency, 12(1), 187–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9678-9
- CCC. (2019). Net zero - The UK ‘s contribution to stopping global warming. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
- Collins, S., Deane, J. P., Poncelet, K., Panos, E., Pietzcker, R. C., Delarue, E., Gallachóir, Ó, & P, B. (2017). Integrating short term variations of the power system into integrated energy system models: A methodological review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 839–856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.090
- Creutzig, F., Roy, J., Lamb, W. F., Azevedo, I. M. L., Bruine De Bruin, W., Dalkmann, H., … Weber, E. U. (2018). Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 260. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0121-1
- Davis, S. J., Lewis, N. S., Shaner, M., Aggarwal, S., Arent, D., Azevedo, I. L., & Caldeira, K. (2018). Net-zero emissions energy systems. Science, 360(6396). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9793
- DDPP. (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 report. http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/DDPP_2015_REPORT.pdf
- Deane, J. P., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., Gallachóir, Ó, & P, B. (2012). Soft-linking of a power systems model to an energy systems model. Energy, 42(1), 303–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.052
- Energy Transitions Commission. (2018). Mission Possible: Reaching net-zero carbon emissions from harder-to-abate sectors by mid-century. http://www.energy-transitions.org/mission-possible
- Farmer, J. D., Hepburn, C., Mealy, P., & Teytelboym, A. (2015). A third Wave in the Economics of climate change. Environmental and Resource Economics, 62(2), 329–357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9965-2
- Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., … Yamagata, Y. (2014). Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change, 4(10), 850–853. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2392
- Geels, F. W., Berkhout, F., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2016). Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions. Nature Climate Change, 6(6), 576–583. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2980
- Gilliland, M. W. (1975). Energy analysis and public policy. Science, 189(4208), 1051–1056. 10.1126/science.189.4208.1051
- Glynn, J., Fortes, P., Krook-Riekkola, A., Labriet, M., Vielle, M., Kypreos, S., & Gargiulo, M. (2015). Economic impacts of future changes in the energy system—global perspectives. In G Giannakidis, M Labriet, B Ó Gallachóir, & G Tosato (Eds.), Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models (pp. 333–358). Springer.
- Glynn, J., Gargiulo, M., Chiodi, A., Deane, P., Rogan, F., & Ó Gallachóir, B. (2019). Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement. Climate Policy, 19(1), 30–42. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
- Gough, C., Garcia-Freites, S., Jones, C., Mander, S., Moore, B., Pereira, C., & Welfle, A. (2018). Challenges to the use of BECCS as a keystone technology in pursuit of 1.5°C. Global Sustainability, 1, e5. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2018.3
- Grubler, A., Wilson, C., Bento, N., Boza-Kiss, B., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., … Valin, H. (2018). A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nature Energy, 3(6), 515–527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
- Guivarch, C., Lempert, R., & Trutnevyte, E. (2017). Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research: An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty. Environmental Modelling and Software, 97, 201–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.017
- Haberl, H., Wiedenhofer, D., Virág, D., Kalt, G., Plank, B., Brockway, P., & Creutzig, F. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: Synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a
- Hardt, L., Brockway, P., Taylor, P., Barrett, J., Gross, R., & Heptonstall, P. (2019). Modelling Demand-side Energy Policies for Climate Change Mitigation in the UK: A Rapid Evidence Assessment. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/modelling-demand-side-policies.html
- Hepburn, C., Adlen, E., Beddington, J., Carter, E. A., Fuss, S., Mac Dowell, N., & Williams, C. K. (2019). The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal. Nature, 575(7781), 87–97. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1681-6
- Holtz, G., Alkemade, F., de Haan, F., Köhler, J., Trutnevyte, E., Luthe, T., … Ruutu, S. (2015). Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 17, 41–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2015.05.006
- Hook, A., Court, V., Sovacool, B., & Sorrell, S. (2020). A systematic review of the energy and climate impacts of teleworking. Environmental Research Letters, 15(9). .http://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a84
- Howells, M., Hermann, S., Welsch, M., Bazilian, M., Segerström, R., Alfstad, T., & Ramma, I. (2013). Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), 621–626. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1789
- IEA. (2019). Material efficiency in clean energy transitions. https://www.iea.org/reports/material-efficiency-in-clean-energy-transitions
- Jewell, J., & Cherp, A. (2020). On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(1), e621. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.621
- Köberle, A. C. (2019). The Value of BECCS in IAMs: a Review. Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40518-019-00142-3
- Li, F. G. N., & Pye, S. (2018). Uncertainty, politics, and technology: Expert perceptions on energy transitions in the United Kingdom. Energy Research & Social Science, 37, 122–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.003
- Li, F. G. N., & Strachan, N. (2017). Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 24, 106–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.002
- Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., … Waterfield, T. (2018). IPCC Special Report 1.5 - Summary for Policymakers. In IPCC. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324
- McCollum, D. L., Gambhir, A., Rogelj, J., & Wilson, C. (2020). Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios. Nature Energy, 5(2), 104–107. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0555-3
- Mulholland, E., Rogan, F., Gallachóir, Ó, & P, B. (2017). From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach. Energy, 138, 1030–1041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.116
- Napp, T. A., Few, S., Sood, A., Bernie, D., Hawkes, A., & Gambhir, A. (2019). The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets. Applied Energy, 238, 351–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.033
- Obersteiner, M., Bednar, J., Wagner, F., Gasser, T., Ciais, P., Forsell, N., & Schmidt-Traub, G. (2018). How to spend a dwindling greenhouse gas budget. Nature Climate Change, 8(1), 7–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0045-1
- Oshiro, K., Masui, T., & Kainuma, M. (2018). Transformation of Japan’s energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050. Carbon Management, 9(5), 493–501. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2017.1396842
- Peters, G. P., & Geden, O. (2017). Catalysing a political shift from low to negative carbon. Nature Clim. Change, Advance on., 7, 619–621. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3369
- Petersen, A. C., Cath, A., Hage, M., Kunseler, E., & van der Sluijs, J. P. (2011). Post-Normal science in practice at the Netherlands environmental assessment Agency.. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 36(3), 362–388. https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243910385797
- Pfenninger, S., Hawkes, A., & Keirstead, J. (2014). Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 33, 74–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.02.003
- Pye, S., & Bataille, C. (2016). Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts. Climate Policy, 16(sup1), S27–S46. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1173004
- Pye, S., Li, F. G. N., Petersen, A., Broad, O., McDowall, W., Price, J., & Usher, W. (2018). Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom. Energy Research & Social Science, 46, 332–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.07.028
- Pye, S., Li, F. G. N., Price, J., & Fais, B. (2017). Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era. Nature Energy, 2, 17024. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.24
- Robiou Du Pont, Y., Jeffery, M. L., Gütschow, J., Rogelj, J., Christoff, P., & Meinshausen, M. (2017). Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change, 7(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3186
- Rogelj, J., Huppmann, D., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Clarke, L., Gidden, M., & Meinshausen, M. (2019). A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. Nature, 573(7774), 357–363. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
- Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M., Knutti, R., Alcamo, J., Riahi, K., & Hare, W. (2015). Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection. Environmental Research Letters, 10(10), 105007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007
- Rosenow, J., Guertler, P., Sorrell, S., & Eyre, N. (2018). The remaining potential for energy savings in UK households. Energy Policy, 121, 542–552. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.033
- RSA. (2019). The Four Futures of Work. https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/pdfs/reports/rsa_four-futures-of-work.pdf
- Sakai, M., Brockway, P. E., Barrett, J. R., & Taylor, P. G. (2019). Thermodynamic efficiency gains and their role as a key “engine of economic growth. Energies, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010110
- Sawyer, D., & Bataille, C. (2016). Still Minding the Gap: An Assessment of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Obligations. In Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project Team, Paris. https://climateactionnetwork.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Still-Minding-the-Gap-V10.1-1.pdf
- Shue, H. (2017). Climate dreaming: Negative emissions, risk transfer, and irreversibility. Journal of Human Rights and the Environment, 8(2), 203–216. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2940987 doi: 10.4337/jhre.2017.02.02
- Slesser, M. (1975). Accounting for energy. Nature, 254(5497), 170–172. https://doi.org/10.1038/254170a0
- Sorrell, S., Gatersleben, B., & Druckman, A. (2020). The limits of energy sufficiency: A review of the evidence for rebound effects and negative spillovers from behavioural change. Energy Research & Social Science, 64, 101439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101439
- Trutnevyte, E., McDowall, W., Tomei, J., & Keppo, I. (2016). Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55, 326–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.067
- Tukker, A., Pollitt, H., & Henkemans, M. (2020). Consumption-based carbon accounting: Sense and sensibility. Climate Policy, 20, S1–S13. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1728208
- United Nations. (2015, 30 November – 12 December). Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, Paris.
- van den Berg, N. J., van Soest, H. L., Hof, A. F., den Elzen, M. G. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Chen, W., & Höhne, N. (2019). Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02368-y
- Van Der Sluijs, J. P., Craye, M., Funtowicz, S., Kloprogge, P., Ravetz, J., & Risbey, J. (2005). Combining Quantitative and Qualitative measures of uncertainty in model-based environmental assessment: The NUSAP system. Risk Analysis, 25(2), 481–492. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00604.x
- van Sluisveld, M. A. E., Hof, A. F., van Vuuren, D. P., Boot, P., Criqui, P., Matthes, F. C., … Watson, J. (2017). Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy, 78, 89–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.08.022
- van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., van den Berg, M., Bijl, D. L., de Boer, H. S., … van Sluisveld, M. A. E. (2018). Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies. Nature Climate Change, 8(5), 391–397. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8
- Waisman, H., Bataille, C., Winkler, H., Jotzo, F., Shukla, P., Colombier, M., … Trollip, H. (2019). A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. Nature Climate Change, 9(4), 261–268. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0442-8
- Welsch, M., Deane, P., Howells, M., O Gallachóir, B., Rogan, F., Bazilian, M., & & Rogner, H. H. (2014). Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models - A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland. Applied Energy, 135, 600–615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.072
- Yue, X., Pye, S., DeCarolis, J., Li, F. G. N., Rogan, F., & Gallachóir, BÓ. (2018). A review of approaches to uncertainty assessment in energy system optimization models. Energy Strategy Reviews, 21, 204–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.06.003
- Zakeri, B., Price, J., Zeyringer, M., Keppo, I., Mathiesen, B. V., & Syri, S. (2018). The direct interconnection of the UK and Nordic power market – impact on social welfare and renewable energy integration. Energy, 162, 1193–1204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.019