3,379
Views
2
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Just transition and climate justice in climate policy design

Whose jobs face transition risk in Alberta? Understanding sectoral employment precarity in an oil-rich Canadian province

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 1016-1032 | Received 11 May 2021, Accepted 03 Jun 2022, Published online: 13 Jul 2022

References

  • Alberta Government. (2018). ‘Oil Sands Facts and Statistics’. 2018. https://www.alberta.ca/oil-sands-facts-and-statistics.aspx.
  • Alberta Government. (2020). ‘Economic Dashboard’. 2020. https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/.
  • Bacon, R., & Kojima, M. (2011). ‘Issues in Estimating the Employment Generated by Energy Sector Activities’. World Bank Sustainable Energy Department. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/es/627831468159915345/pdf/827320WP0emplo00Box379875B00PUBLIC0.pdf.
  • Black, T., Russell, J. K., D’Arcy, S., Weis, A. J., & Klein, N. (2014). A line in the Tar sands: Struggles for Environmental justice. PM Press.
  • Bryman, A. (2012). Social research methods (4th ed). Oxford University Press.
  • Castellanos, K., & Heutel, G. (2019). Unemployment, Labor mobility, and Climate policy’. w25797. National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Castle, J., Doornik, J., Hendry, D., & Pretis, F. (2015). Detecting location shifts during model selection by step-indicator saturation. Econometrics, 3(2), 240–264. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics3020240
  • Castle, J., & Hendry, D. F. (2019). Modelling Our Changing World. https://public.ebookcentral.proquest.com/choice/publicfullrecord.aspx?p.=5926889.
  • City of Red Deer. (2019). ‘Key Industries - The City of Red Deer’. 2019. https://www.reddeer.ca/business/business-environment/key-industries/.
  • Cope, M., & Elwood, S. (2009). Introduction: Qualitative GIS: Forging Mixed Methods through Representations, Analytical Innovations, and Conceptual Engagements. In M. Cope & S. Elwood (Eds.), Qualitative GIS (pp. 1–12). SAGE Publications Ltd.
  • Dominish, E., Briggs, C., Teske, S., & Mey, F. (2019). Just transition: Employment projections for the 2.0 and 1.5 °C Scenarios. In S. Teske (Ed.), Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement goals (pp. 413–435). Springer International Publishing.
  • Dutta, M. (2016). Place of life stories in labour geography: Why does It matter? Geoforum; Journal of Physical, Human, and Regional Geosciences, 77(December), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2016.10.002
  • Environment Canada. (2020). ‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions’. Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html.
  • Ericsson, N. R. (2012). Detecting Crises, Jumps, and Changes in Regime’. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 26.
  • Fattouh, B., Poudineh, R., & West, R. (2018). The rise of renewables and energy transition: What adaptation strategy for Oil companies and Oil-exporting-countries? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
  • Focacci, C. N. (2021). Technological unemployment, robotisation, and green deal: A story of unstable spillovers in China and South Korea (2008-2018). Technology in Society, 64(C), 101504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101504
  • Grant, A. (2018). ‘Mind the Gap: The $1.6 Trillion Energy Transition Risk’. Carbon Tracker Initiative. www.carbontracker.org/reports/mind-the-gap.
  • Green, F., & Gambhir, A. (2020). Transitional assistance policies for just, equitable and smooth low-carbon transitions: Who, what and how?. Climate Policy, 20(8), 902–921. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1657379.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since world War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228–248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
  • Hawkins, R. (2017). Industrial diversification and the evolving position of Natural Resources in the Canadian Economy. In S. Mahroum, & Y. M. Al-Saleh (Eds.), Economic diversification policies in Natural Resource rich economies (1 Edition, pp. 9–37). Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
  • Hendry, D. F., Johansen, S., & Santos, C. (2008). Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression. Computational Statistics, 23(2), 337–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-008-0112-1
  • Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., & Zenghelis, D. (2020). Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), S359–S381. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa015
  • Hiebert, P., & Vansteenkiste, I. (2010). International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector. Applied Economics, 42(24), 3045–3066. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964864
  • Hitchings, R., & Latham, A. (2020). Qualitative methods I: On current conventions in interview research. Progress in Human Geography, 44(2), 389–398. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132519856412
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01281-0
  • Hothorn, T., Bretz, F., & Westfall, P. (2008). Simultaneous inference in general parametric models. Biometrical Journal, 50(3), 346–363. https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.200810425
  • Howie, P. (2018). Policy transfer and diversification in resource-dependent economies: Lessons for Kazakhstan from alberta. Politics & Policy, 46(1), 110–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12239
  • Hvinden, E. C., & Nordbø, E. W. (2016). The fall in oil prices and the labour market. Economic Commentaries: Norges Bank, 7. https://www.norges-bank.no/contentassets/d469bee4f3d94903bb5179df62e55a8d/economic_commentaries_7_2016.pdf.
  • Ihejirika, N. (2019). ‘The Canadian Oilsands and Strategic Approaches to Profitability’. 56. Energy Insight. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/The-Canadian-Oilsands-and-Strategic-Approaches-to-Profitability-Insight-56.pdf.
  • International Labour Organisation (ILO). (2015). ‘Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all’. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_emp/@emp_ent/documents/publication/wcms_432859.pdf.
  • Ivankova, N. V., Creswell, J. W., & Stick, S. L. (2006). Using mixed-methods sequential explanatory design: From theory to practice. Field Methods, 18(1), 3–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/1525822X05282260
  • Johansen, S., & Nielsen, B. (2016). Asymptotic theory of outlier detection algorithms for linear time series regression models. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 43(2), 321–348. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12174
  • Kaddoura, S., Jeyakumar, B., Israel, B., Way, N., & Simpson-Marran, M. (2020). Alberta’s emerging economy: A blueprint for Job creation through 2030. Pembina Institute.
  • Kaufmann, R. K. (2020). A regionalized or unified Oil market: The price spread between brent and WTI. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 9(2), 11–31. https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.9.2.rkau
  • Kin, S., Syden, M., & Asrat, T. (2015). The impact of Oil prices on sectorial employment in South Africa. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 14(2), 287. https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v14i2.9165
  • Lenferna, G. A. (2018). Can We equitably manage the End of the fossil fuel Era? Energy Research & Social Science, 35(January), 217–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.11.007
  • Maguire, M., & Delahunt, B. (2017). Doing a thematic analysis: A practical, step-by-step guide for learning and teaching scholars. All Ireland Journal of Higher Education, 8(3), 14.
  • Marchand, J. (2012). Local labor market impacts of energy boom-bust-boom in Western Canada. Journal of Urban Economics, 71(1), 165–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2011.06.001
  • Marchand, J., & Weber, J. (2018). Local labor markets and Natural resources: A synthesis of the literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(2), 469–490. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12199
  • Masnadi, M. S., El-Houjeiri, H. M., Schunack, D., Li, Y., Englander, J. G., Badahdah, A., Monfort, J.-C., Anderson, J. E., Wallington, T. J., Bergerson, J. A., Gordon, D., Koomey, J., Przesmitzki, S., Azevedo, I. L., Bi, X. T., Duffy, J. E., Heath, G. A., Keoleian, G. A., McGlade, C.…Brandt, A. R. (2018). Global carbon intensity of crude oil production. Science, 361(6405), 851–853. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar6859
  • Mason, G. (2018). ‘Rachel Notley’s Other Big Nemesis: Alberta’s Debt’. The Globe and Mail, 20 March 2018. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-rachel-notleys-other-big-nemesis-albertas-debt/.
  • McCauley, D., & Heffron, R. (2018). Just transition: Integrating climate, energy and Environmental justice. Energy Policy, 119(August), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.014
  • McGlade, C., & Ekins, P. (2015). The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C. Nature, 517(7533), 187–190. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14016
  • Miljkovic, D., & Ripplinger, D. (2016). Labor market impacts of U.S. Tight Oil development: The case of the bakken. Energy Economics, 60(November), 306–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.007
  • Millington, D. (2018). Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects (2018-2038). https://www.deslibris.ca/ID/10097706.
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices Go up and down: An extension of hamilton’s results’. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740–744. https://doi.org/10.1086/261625
  • Morton, T., & McDonald, M. (2015). The siren song of economic diversification: Alberta’s legacy of Loss. University of Calgary School of Public Policy, SPP Research Papers, 8(13), 1–29.
  • Munasib, A., & Rickman, D. S. (2015). Regional economic impacts of the shale Gas and tight Oil boom: A synthetic control analysis. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 50(January), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.10.006
  • Natural Resources Canada. (2020). ‘Crude Oil Facts’. Government of Canada. https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/crude-oil-facts/20064#details-panel1.
  • Paredes, D., Komarek, T., & Loveridge, S. (2015). Income and employment effects of shale Gas extraction windfalls: Evidence from the marcellus region. Energy Economics, 47(January), 112–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.09.025
  • Pfaff, B. (2006). Analysis of integrated and cointegrated time series with R. Use R!. Springer.
  • Pollin, R., & Callaci, B. (2019). The economics of just transition: A framework for supporting fossil fuel–dependent workers and communities in the United States. Labor Studies Journal, 44(2), 93–138. https://doi.org/10.1177/0160449X18787051
  • Pretis, F., James Reade, J., & Sucarrat, G. (2018a). Automated general-to-specific (GETS) regression modeling and indicator saturation for outliers and structural breaks. Journal of Statistical Software, 86(3), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v086.i03.
  • Pretis, F., Schwarz, M., Tang, K., Haustein, K., & Allen, M. R. (2018b). Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2119), 20160460. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0460
  • Robins, N., Muller, S., & Szwarc, K. (2021). From the grand to the granular: Translating just transition ambitions into investor action. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, 1–42.
  • Snell, D. (2018). ‘Just transition’? Conceptual challenges meet stark reality in a ‘transitioning’ coal region in Australia. Globalizations, 15(4), 550–564. https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2018.1454679
  • Snyder, B. F. (2018). Vulnerability to decarbonization in hydrocarbon-intensive counties in the United States: A just transition to avoid post-industrial decay. Energy Research & Social Science, 42(August), 34–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.03.004
  • Statistics Canada. (2020). Labour force characteristics by sex and detailed age group, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality. Government of Canada. Reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of Statistics Canada.
  • Van de Graaf, T., & Verbruggen, A. (2015). The Oil endgame: Strategies of Oil exporters in a carbon-constrained world. Environmental Science & Policy, 54(December), 456–462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.004
  • Weinstein, A. L. (2014). Local labor market restructuring in the shale boom. The Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 44(1), 22. 10.22004/ag.econ.243965
  • Zuo, N., Schieffer, J., & Buck, S. (2019). The effect of the Oil and Gas boom on schooling decisions in the U.S. Resource and Energy Economics, 55(February), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.10.002