258
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Temperature neutrality and Irish methane policy

ORCID Icon
Pages 1229-1242 | Received 05 Oct 2021, Accepted 10 Mar 2023, Published online: 20 Apr 2023

References

  • Allen, M. R., Peters, G. P., Shine, K. P., Azar, C., Balcombe, P., Boucher, O., Cain, M., Ciais, P., Collins, W., Forster, P. M., Frame, D. J., Friedlingstein, P., Fyson, C., Gasser, T., Hare, B., Jenkins, S., Hamburg, S. P., Johansson, D. J. A., Lynch, J., & Tanaka, K.(2022). Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2
  • Allen, M. R., Shine, K. P., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Millar, R. J., Cain, M., D. J. Frame, & Macey, A. H. (2018). A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0007-3
  • Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature, 527(7577), 235–239. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725
  • Cain, M., Lynch, J., Allen, M. R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Frame, D. J., & Macey, A. H. (2019). Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0086-4
  • Caney, S. (2009). Justice and the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Global Ethics, 5(2), 125–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449620903110300
  • Central Statistics Office (2015). Farming since the famine, 1847–1996. https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/othercsopublications/farmingsincethefamine1847-1996/.
  • Charney, J. G., Arakawa, A., Baker, D. J., Bolin, B., Dickinson, R. E., Goody, R. M., Leith, C. E., Stommel, H. M., & Wunsch, C. I. (1979). Carbon dioxide and climate: a scientific assessment. National Academy of Sciences.
  • Climate Change Advisory Council (2021). Carbon Budgets Technical Report. https://www.climatecouncil.ie/media/climatechangeadvisorycouncil/Technical%20report%20on%20carbon%20budgets%2025.10.2021.pdf.
  • Climate Neutrality Forum (2021). Climate neutrality forum, 8-9 September 2021. https://netzeroclimate.org/climateneutralityforum-2/.
  • Collins, W. J., Frame, D. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., & Shine, K. P. (2020). Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species–combining steps and pulses. Environmental Research Letters, 15(2), 024018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039
  • Council of European Union (2021). Amending regulations (EC) No 401/2009 and (EU) 2018/1999 (‘European Climate Law’). https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-27-2021-INIT/en/pdf.
  • Dorheim, K., Link, R., Hartin, C., Kravitz, B., & Snyder, A. (2020). Calibrating simple climate models to individual earth system models: lessons learned from calibrating hector. Earth and Space Science, 7(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000980
  • EPA (2020). Ireland's National Inventory Report 2020. https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/othercsopublications/farmingsincethefamine1847-1996/.
  • Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E., & Shine, K. (2016). Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(24), 12–614. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.v43.24
  • European Commission (2021). Global methane pledge. https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/.
  • Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(5), 1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
  • FaIR Development Team (2021). FaIR documentation Tech. Rep. [2021-09-01]. https://fair.readthedocs.io/_/downloads/en/latest/pdf/.
  • Fankhauser, S., Smith, S. M., Allen, M., Axelsson, K., Hale, T., Hepburn, C., Kendall, J. M., Khosla, R., Lezaun, J., Mitchell-Larson, E., & Obersteiner, M. (2022). The meaning of net zero and how to get it right. Nature Climate Change, 12(1), 15–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01245-w
  • Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Jackson, L. S., & Zelinka, M. (2013). Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(3), 1139–1150. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.v118.3
  • Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., & Le Quéré, C. (2020). Global carbon budget 2020. Earth System Science Data, 12(4), 3269–3340. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020
  • Fuglestvedt, J. S., Berntsen, T. K., Godal, O., Sausen, R., Shine, K. P., & Skodvin, T. (2003). Metrics of climate change: assessing radiative forcing and emission indices. Climatic Change, 58(3), 267–331. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023905326842
  • Ghan, S. J., Smith, S. J., Wang, M., Zhang, K., Pringle, K., Carslaw, K., Pierce, J., Bauer, S., & Adams, P. (2013). A simple model of global aerosol indirect effects. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(12), 6688–6707. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50567
  • Government of New Zealand (2019). Climate change response (Zero Carbon) amendment act 2019.
  • Grose, M. R., Gregory, J., Colman, R., & Andrews, T. (2018). What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters, 45(3), 1559–1566. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.v45.3
  • Gütschow, J., Günther, A., & Pflüger, M (2021). The PRIMAP-HIST national historical emissions time series (1750–2019) v2. 3.1. . https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
  • Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., & Stone, P. (1988). Global climate changes as forecast by goddard institute for space studies three-dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 93(D8), 9341–9364. https://doi.org/10.1029/JD093iD08p09341
  • Hartin, C. A., Patel, P., Schwarber, A., Link, R., & Bond-Lamberty, B. (2015). A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system–Hector v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(4), 939–955. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-939-2015
  • Höhne, N., Blum, H., Fuglestvedt, J., Skeie, R. B., Kurosawa, A., Hu, G., Lowe, J., Gohar, L., Matthews, B., Nioac de Salles, A. C., & Ellermann, C. (2011). Contributions of individual countries' emissions to climate change and their uncertainty. Climatic Change, 106(3), 359–391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9930-6
  • IIASA Energy Program (2018). SSP Database. Last accessed on 2022-11-11. https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb.
  • IPCC (1990). Intergovernmental panel on climate change, first assessment report. WMO.
  • IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Tech. Rep.).
  • IPCC (2018). SR15: Annex I: glossary. In IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5∘C. IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5∘C.
  • IPCC (2021). Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • Irish Statute Book (2021). Climate action and low carbon development (amendment) act 2021. http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2021/act/32/enacted/en/print.
  • Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G. K., Gerber, S., & Hasselmann, K. (2001). Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15(4), 891–907. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001375
  • Lelieveld, J., Gromov, S., Pozzer, A., & Taraborrelli, D. (2016). Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(19), 12477–12493. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12477-2016
  • Liou, K. (2002). Chapter 4 – thermal infrared radiation transfer in the atmosphere. In An introduction to atmospheric radiation (Vol. 84, pp. 116–168). Academic Press.
  • Lynch, J., Cain, M., Pierrehumbert, R., & Allen, M. (2020). Demonstrating GWP*: a means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short-and long-lived climate pollutants demonstrating GWP*: A means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short-and long-lived climate pollutants. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4), 044023. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7e
  • Matthews, H. D., Graham, T. L., Keverian, S., Lamontagne, C., Seto, D., & Smith, T. J. (2014). National contributions to observed global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 9(1), 014010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014010
  • Mayer, E. W., Blake, D. R., Tyler, S. C., Makide, Y., Montague, D. C., & F. S. Rowland (1982). Methane: interhemispheric concentration gradient and atmospheric residence time. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 79(4), 1366–1370. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.79.4.1366
  • Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J. F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., & Schlund, M. (2020). Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 earth system models. Science Advances, 6(26), eaba1981. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981
  • Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C., & Wigley, T. M (2011). Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6–Part 1: model description and calibration. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(4), 1417–1456. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011
  • Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L., & Lamarque, J. F. (2011). The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109(1), 213–241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
  • Millar, R. J., Nicholls, Z. R., Friedlingstein, P., & Allen, M. R. (2017). A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(11), 7213–7228. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017
  • Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., Shine, K. P., & Stordal, F. (1998). New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(14), 2715–2718. https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL01908
  • Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. R., Dorheim, K., Gasser, T., Gieseke, R., Hope, A. P., Leach, N. J., McBride, L. A., & Quilcaille, Y. (2021). Reduced complexity model intercomparison project phase 2: synthesising earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections. Earth's Future, 9(6), e2020EF001900. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001900
  • Nicholls, Z. R. J., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Gieseke, R., Dommenget, D., Dorheim, K., Fan, C. S., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Gasser, T., Golüke, U., & Goodwin, P. (2020). Reduced complexity model intercomparison project phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(11), 5175–5190. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
  • Pekkarinen, V. (2020). Going beyond CO2: strengthening action on global methane emissions under the UN climate regime. Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law, 29(3), 464–478. https://doi.org/10.1111/reel.12329
  • Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Solomon, S., & Friedlingstein, P. (2015). Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 10(10), 105004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004
  • Pierrehumbert, R. T. (2014). Short-lived climate pollution. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 42(1), 341–379. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054843
  • Prather, M. J., Penner, J. E., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Kurosawa, A., Lowe, J. A., Höhne, N., Jain, A. K., Andronova, N., Pinguelli, L., C. Pires de Campos, & Raper, S. C. (2009). Tracking uncertainties in the causal chain from human activities to climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036474
  • Prudhomme, R., O'Donoghue, C., Ryan, M., & Styles, D. (2021). Defining national biogenic methane targets: implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives. Journal of Environmental Management, 295, 113058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113058
  • Qiu, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Guenet, B., Peng, S., Petrescu, A. M. R, Lauerwald, R., Makowski, D., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Charman, D. J., & Brewer, S. C. (2021). Large historical carbon emissions from cultivated northern peatlands. Science Advances, 7(23), eabf1332. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1332
  • Ravishankara, A. R., Shindell, D., Kuylenstierna, J. C. I., Michalopoulou, E., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Zhang, Y., Seltzer, K., Ru, M., Castelino, R., Faluvegi, G., & Naik, V (2021). Global methane assessment: Benefits and costs of mitigating methane emissions. : UNEP. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions.
  • Reisinger, A. (2018). The contribution of methane emissions from New Zealand livestock to global warming. Report to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment. https://pce.parliament.nz/media/ojzbobxh/contribution-of-methane-emissions-from-nz-livestock-to-global-warming.pdf
  • Reisinger, A., Clark, H., Cowie, A. L., Emmet-Booth, J., Gonzalez Fischer, C., Herrero, M., Howden, M., & Leahy, S. (2021). How necessary and feasible are reductions of methane emissions from livestock to support stringent temperature goals? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 379(2210), 20200452. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0452
  • Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., & Lutz, W. (2017). The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
  • Rogelj, J., Geden, O., Cowie, A., & Reisinger, A. (2021). Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix. Nature Publishing Group.
  • Rogelj, J., Popp, A., K. V. Calvin, Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., & Krey, V. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5∘C scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5∘C. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 325–332. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
  • Rogelj, J., & Schleussner, C. F. (2019). Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level. Environmental Research Letters, 14(11), 114039. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4928
  • Shine, K. P. (2009). The global warming potential–the need for an interdisciplinary retrial (Vol. 96). Springer Netherlands.
  • Shine, K. P., Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Skeie, R. B., & Stuber, N. (2007). Comparing the climate effect of emissions of short-and long-lived climate agents. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1856), 1903–1914. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2050
  • Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R. J., Passerello, G. A., & Regayre, L. A. (2018). FAIR v1. 3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2273–2297. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018
  • Smith, S. J., Aardenne, J. V., Klimont, Z., Andres, R. J., Volke, A., & Delgado Arias, S. (2011). Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(3), 1101–1116. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1101-2011
  • Smith, S. M., Lowe, J. A., Bowerman, N. H., Gohar, L. K., Huntingford, C., & Allen, M. R. (2012). Equivalence of greenhouse-gas emissions for peak temperature limits. Nature Climate Change, 2(7), 535–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1496
  • Tanaka, K., & O'Neill, B. C. (2018). The Paris agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5∘C and 2∘C temperature targets the Paris agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5∘C and 2∘C temperature targets. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 319–324. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0097-x
  • Turner, A. J., Frankenberg, C., & Kort, E. A. (2019). Interpreting contemporary trends in atmospheric methane. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(8), 2805–2813. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814297116
  • Van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., & Deetman, S. (2011). RCP2. 6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2∘C. Climatic Change, 109(1), 95–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
  • Vega-Westhoff, B., Sriver, R. L., Hartin, C. A., Wong, T. E., & Keller, K. (2019). Impacts of observational constraints related to sea level on estimates of climate sensitivity. Earth's Future, 7(6), 677–690. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001082
  • Wigley, T., & Raper, S. (1992). Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature, 357(6376), 293–300. https://doi.org/10.1038/357293a0
  • Wigley, T. M. (1998). The kyoto protocol: CO2 CH4 and climate implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(13), 2285–2288. https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL01855
  • Wigley, T. M., & Raper, S. (1987). Thermal expansion of sea water associated with global warming. Nature, 330(6144), 127–131. https://doi.org/10.1038/330127a0
  • World Resources Institute (2021). Climate watch greenhouse gas emissions (Tech. Rep.). [2021-09-01]. https://www.climatewatchdata.org.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.