Time to change? Technologies of futuring and transformative change in Nepal’s climate change policy

References

• Andersson, J., & Keizer, A. G. (2014). Governing the future: Science, policy and public participation in the construction of the long term in the Netherlands and Sweden. History and Technology, 30(1-2), 104–122. https://doi.org/10.1080/07341512.2014.932563
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Andersson, J., & Westholm, E. (2019). Closing the future: Environmental research and the management of conflicting future value orders. Science, Technology & Human Values, 44(2), 237–262. https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243918791263
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Angelsen, A., & Brockhaus, M. (Eds.). (2009). Realising REDD+: National strategy and policy options. CIFOR.
   Google Scholar
• Asayama, S., Bellamy, R., Geden, O., Pearce, W., & Hulme, M. (2019). Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous. Nature Climate Change, 9(8), 570–572. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0543-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ashley, R. K. (1983). The eye of power: The politics of world modeling. International Organization, 37(3), 495–535. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300032768
   Google Scholar
• Ayers, J. (2010). Understanding the adaptation paradox: Can global climate change adaptation policy be locally inclusive? International Development. London School of Economics and Political Science.
   Google Scholar
• Ayers, J., Kaur, N., & Anderson, S. (2011). Negotiating climate resilience in Nepal. IDS Bulletin, 42(3), 70–79. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2011.00224.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahadur, A., Peters, K., Wilkinson, E., Pichon, F., Gray, K., & Tanner, T. (2015). The 3As: Tracking resilience across BRACED (BRACED Knowledge Manager Working Paper). ODI.
   Google Scholar
• Belton, B., & Filipski, M. (2019). Rural transformation in central Myanmar: By how much, and for whom? Journal of Rural Studies, 67, 166–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.02.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blythe, J., Silver, J., Evans, L., Armitage, D., Bennett, N. J., Moore, M.-L., Morrison, T. H., & Brown, K. (2018). The dark side of transformation: Latent risks in contemporary sustainability discourse. Antipode, 50(5), 1206–1223. https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.12405
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boserup, E. (1965). The conditions of agricultural growth; the economics of agrarian change under population pressure. G. Allen & Unwin.
   Google Scholar
• BRACED. (2015). DFID BRACED knowledge manager evaluation plan. BRACED and UK Department for International Development.
   Google Scholar
• Brooks, N., & Fisher, S. (2014). Tracking adaptation and measuring development: A step-by-step guide. International Institute for Environment and Development.
   Google Scholar
• Bryceson, D. F., Kay, C., & Mooij, J. E. (2000). Disappearing peasantries? Rural labour in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Intermediate Technology.
   Google Scholar
• Chandler, D., & Reid, J. (2016). The neoliberal subject: Resilience, adaptation and vulnerability. Rowman and Littlefield.
   Google Scholar
• Chaudhury, A., Sova, C., Rasheed, T., Thornton, T. F., Baral, P., & Zeb, A. (2014). Deconstructing local adaptation plans for action (LAPAs): Analysis of Nepal and Pakistan LAPA initiatives (Working Paper No. 67). CCAFS.
   Google Scholar
• Christoplos, I., Anderson, S., Arnold, M., Galaz, V., Hedger, M., Klein, R. J. T., & Le Goulven, K. (2009). The human dimension of climate adaptation: The importance of local and institutional issues. Commission on Climate Change and Development.
   Google Scholar
• Collier, P., & Dercon, S. (2014). African agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a rapidly changing world? World Development, 63, 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Donovan, D. (1981). Fuelwood: How much do we need? Newsletter (DGD 14). Institute of Current World Affairs.
   Google Scholar
• Eckholm, E. (1976). Losing ground: Environmental stress and world food problems. W.W. Norton.
   Google Scholar
• Edwards, P. N. (2010). A vast machine: Computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming. MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Ellis, F., & Freeman, H. A. (2005). Rural livelihoods and poverty reduction policies. Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Few, R., Morchain, D., Spear, D., Mensah, A., & Bendapudi, R. (2017). Transformation, adaptation and development: Relating concepts to practice. Palgrave Communications, 3(1), 17092. https://www.nature.com/articles/palcomms201792.pdf https://doi.org/10.1057/palcomms.2017.92
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forsyth, T. (1996). Science, myth and knowledge: Testing Himalayan environmental degradation in Thailand. Geoforum; Journal of Physical, Human, and Regional Geosciences, 27, 375–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7185(96)00020-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forsyth, T. (2003). Critical political ecology: The politics of environmental science. Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Forsyth, T., & Evans, N. (2013). What is autonomous adaptation? Resource scarcity and smallholder agency in Thailand. World Development, 43, 56–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.11.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• German Advisory Council on Global Change. (2011). World in transition. A social contract for sustainability. WBGU. Retrieved May 5, 2017, from http://www.wbgu.de/en/flagship-reports/fr-2011-a-social-contract/.
   Google Scholar
• Gillard, R., Gouldson, A., Paavola, J., & Van Alstine, J. (2016). Transformational responses to climate change: Beyond a systems perspective of social change in mitigation and adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 7(2), 251–265. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.384
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Government of Nepal. (2019). Climate change scenarios for Nepal: National adaptation plan, February 2019. Ministry of Forests and Environment.
   Google Scholar
• Gyawali, D. G., & Thompson, M. (2016). Restoring development Dharma with Toad’s eye science. IDS Bulletin, 47, 179–190. https://doi.org/10.19088/1968-2016.173192
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hajer, M. A. (1995). The politics of environmental discourse: Ecological modernization and the policy process. Clarendon Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hajer, M. A., & Pelzer, P. (2018). 2050 – an energetic odyssey: Understanding ‘techniques of futuring’ in the transition towards renewable energy. Energy Research & Social Science, 44, 222–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.01.013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hazell, P., Poulton, C., Wiggins, S., & Dorward, A. (2010). The future of small farms: Trajectories and policy priorities. World Development, 38(10), 1349–1361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hulme, M. (2010). Problems with making and governing global kinds of knowledge. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 558–564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huq, S., & Khan, M. (2006). Equity in national adaptation programs of actions NAPAs: The case of Bangladesh. In S. Huq, N. Adger, J. Paavola, & M. J. Mace (Eds.), Fairness in adaptation to climate change (pp. 181–200). MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• IDE. (2017). Anukulan: Driving small farmer investment in climate-smart technologies.
   Google Scholar
• IPBES. (2019). Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (Advanced Unedited Version: 6 May 2019).
   Google Scholar
• Ives, J., & Messerli, B. (1989). The Himalayan dilemma: Reconciling conservation and development. Routledge and UNU.
   Google Scholar
• James, C. (2011). Theory of change review: A report commissioned by Comic Relief. Comic Relief.
   Google Scholar
• Jasanoff, S. (2015). Future imperfect: Science, technology, and the imaginations of modernity. In S. Jasanoff & S. Kim (Eds.), Dreamscapes of modernity: Sociotechnical imaginaries and the fabrication of power (pp. 1–47). University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Karki, G., Regmi, B., & Ayers, J. (2012). Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into local and national planning in Nepal. UNDP.
   Google Scholar
• Kienholz, H., Schneider, G., Bichsel, M., Grunder, M., & Mool, P. (1984). Mapping of mountain hazards and slope stability. Mountain Research and Development, 4(3), 247–266. https://doi.org/10.2307/3673145
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139–191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
   Google Scholar
• Lovell, E. (2019). Building resilience for all: Intersectional approaches for reducing vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change: Findings from Nepal. ODI and BRACED.
   Google Scholar
• Maher, B. (2018). Remittances and migration: the case of Nepal. DevPolicyBlog. Australian National University.
   Google Scholar
• Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, J., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., & Waterfield, T. (Eds.) (2018). IPCC, 2018: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C. IPCC.
   Google Scholar
• Mather, A. (1992). The forest transition. Area, 24, 367–379. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20003181
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W. (1972). The limits to growth: A report for the Club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind. University Books.
   Google Scholar
• Mehta, L. (2010). The limits to scarcity: Contesting the politics of allocation. Earthscan.
   Google Scholar
• Nightingale, A. J. (2018). Nepal’s towering climate adaptation challenges. Current History, 117(798), 135–141. https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2018.117.798.135
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• O’Brien, K. (2012). Global environmental change II: From adaptation to deliberate transformation. Progress in Human Geography, 36(5), 667–676. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309132511425767
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oberlack, C., Breu, T., Giger, M., Harari, N., Herweg, K., Mathez-Stiefel, S. L., Messerli, P., Moser, S., Ott, C., Providoli, I., Tribaldos, T., Zimmermann, A., & Schneider, F. (2019). Theories of change in sustainability science: Understanding how change happens. Gaia, 28(2), 106–111. https://doi.org/10.14512/gaia.28.2.8
   Google Scholar
• Pelling, M. (2011). Adaptation to climate change: From resilience to transformation. Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Pelling, M., O’Brien, K., & Matyas, D. (2015). Adaptation and transformation. Climatic Change, 133(1), 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1303-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pereira, L., Sitas, N., Ravera, F., Jimenez-Aceituno, A., & Merrie, A. (2019). Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in intergovernmental science-policy scenario processes. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 7(35), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.374
   Google Scholar
• Pokhrel, A. (2017). Water supply and sanitation: Elusive targets and slippery mean. In D. Gyawali, M. Thompson, & M. Verweij (Eds.), Aid, technology and development: The lessons from Nepal (pp. 167–184). Routledge Earthscan.
   Google Scholar
• Rajbhandari, R., Shrestha, A. B., Nepal, S., Wahid, S., & Ren, G. Y. (2017). Extreme climate projections over the transboundary Koshi River basin using a high resolution regional climate model. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(3), 199–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reid, H. (2014). Climate change and human development. Zed.
   Google Scholar
• Reid, H., & Simms, A. (2007). Up in smoke? Asia and the Pacific: The threat from climate change to human development and the environment. The fifth report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development. New Economics Foundation.
   Google Scholar
• Ribot, J. (2011). Vulnerability before adaptation: Toward transformative climate action. Global Environmental Change, 21(4), 1160–1162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.07.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rigg, J., Oven, K. J., Basyal, G. K., & Lamichhane, R. (2016). Between a rock and a hard place: Vulnerability and precarity in rural Nepal. Geoforum; Journal of Physical, Human, and Regional Geosciences, 76, 63–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2016.08.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rigg, J., Salamanca, A., Phongsiri, M., & Sripun, M. (2018). More farmers, less farming? Understanding the truncated agrarian transition in Thailand. World Development, 107, 327–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.03.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rigg, J., Salamanca, A., & Thompson, E. C. (2016). The puzzle of East and Southeast Asia’s persistent smallholder. Journal of Rural Studies, 43, 118–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.11.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rogers, P. (2014). Theory of change. Methodological briefs: Impact evaluation no. 2. UNICEF.
   Google Scholar
• Sapkota, C. (2013). Remittances in Nepal: Boon or bane? Journal of Development Studies, 49(10), 1316–1331. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2013.812196
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Selvaraju, R., Regmi, K. R., Singh, D. B., Singh, R., Nayava, J. L., Simkhada, U., Adhikari, C., Gautam, B., Dhakal, R., Pandey, N., Pokharel, B., Deo, A., & Rana, N. (2014). Managing climate risks and adapting to climate change in the agriculture sector in Nepal. Food and Agriculture Organization.
   Google Scholar
• Sharma, B., Nepal, S., Gyawali, D., Pokharel, G. S., Wahid, S. M., Mukherji, A., Acharya, S., & Shrestha, A. B. (2016). Springs, storage towers, and water conservation in the Midhills of Nepal (ICIMOD Working Paper 2016/3). Nepal Water Conservation Foundation (NWCF), and the International Centre for Integrated.Mountain Development (ICIMOD.).
   Google Scholar
• Sherpa, A. R., Ayadi, D. P., & Pradhan, P. (2015). Overview of climate change impact and adaptation in Nepal’s Himalayas. Climate Alliance of Himalayan Communities.
   Google Scholar
• Springate-Baginski, O., & Blaikie, P. M. (2007). Forests, people and power: The political ecology of reform in South Asia. Earthscan.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, P. J., & Buttel, F. H. (1992). How do we know we have global environmental problems? Science and the globalization of environmental discourse. Geoforum; Journal of Physical, Human, and Regional Geosciences, 23, 405–416. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7185(92)90051-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thompson, M., Warburton, M., & Hatley, T. (1986). Uncertainty on a Himalayan scale: An institutional theory of environmental perception and a strategic framework for the sustainable development of the Himalaya. Milton Ash Editions.
   Google Scholar
• UNDP. (2012). Nepal climate change support programme: Building climate resilience in Nepal (Project Document).
   Google Scholar
• Valters, C. (2014). Theories of change in international development: communication, learning, or accountability? The Justice and Security Research Programme.
   Google Scholar
• Warner, B. P., & Kuzdas, C. P. (2017). The role of political economy in framing and producing transformative adaptation. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 29, 69–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.12.012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Watts, J. (2018). We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report
   Google Scholar
• Weiss, C. H. (1995). Nothing as practical as good theory: Exploring theory-based evaluation for comprehensive community initiatives for children and families. In J. Connell, A. Kubisch, L. Schorr, & C. Weiss (Eds.), New approaches to evaluating community initiatives: Concepts, methods and contexts (pp. 65–92). Aspen Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2004). At risk: Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters (2nd ed.). Routledge.
   Google Scholar