525
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Development of PV hosting-capacity prediction method based on Markov Chain for high PV penetration with utility-scale battery storage on low-voltage grid

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 1297-1316 | Received 19 Dec 2022, Accepted 05 Sep 2023, Published online: 27 Sep 2023

References

  • Abdelkader, M. A., Z. H. Osman, and M. A. Elshahed. 2020. “New Analytical Approach for Simultaneous Feeder Reconfiguration and DG Hosting Allocation in Radial Distribution Networks.” Ain Shams Engineering Journal 12 (2): 1823–1837.
  • Abreu, J., N. Wingartz, and N. Hardy. 2019. “New Trends in Solar: A Comparative Study Assessing the Attitudes towards the Adoption of Rooftop PV.” Energy Policy 128:347–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.038.
  • Akeyo, O. M., V. Rallabandi, N. Jewell, and D. M. Ionel. May 2020. “The Design and Analysis of Large Solar PV Farm Configurations with DC-connected Battery Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 56 (3): 2903–2912. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIA.2020.2969102.
  • Alzahrani, A., H. Alharthi, and M. Khalid. December 2019. “Minimization of Power Losses through Optimal Battery Placement in a Distributed Network with High Penetration of Photovoltaics.” Energies 13 (1), https://doi.org/10.3390/en13010140.
  • Andresen, M., G. Buticchi, and M. Liserre. 2016. “Thermal Stress Analysis and MPPT Optimization of Photovoltaic Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics 63 (8): 4889–4898. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIE.2016.2549503.
  • Atmaja, W. Y., Sarjiya, and L. M. Putranto. 2021. “Evaluation of Reactive Power Control for High PV Penetration on Low-voltage Distribution Network.” In 2021 13th International Conference on Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, ICITEE 2021, 104–109. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICITEE53064.2021.9611863.
  • Atmaja, W. Y., Sarjiya, and L. M. Putranto. 2022. “Battery Energy Storage System to Reduce Voltage Rise under High Penetration of Customer-Scale Photovoltaics.” International Journal of Sustainable Energy 41 (11). https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2022.2136176.
  • Atmaja, W. Y., Sarjiya, L. M. Putranto, and E. Y. Pramono. August 2019. “Hosting Capacity Improvement Using Reactive Power Control Strategy of Rooftop PV Inverters.” In 2019 IEEE 7th International Conference on Smart Energy Grid Engineering (SEGE), 213–217. IEEE.
  • Ayres, H. M., W. Freitas, M. C. De Almeida, and L. C. P. Da Silva. 2010. “Method for Determining the Maximum Allowable Penetration Level of Distributed Generation without Steady-State Voltage Violations.” IET Generation, Transmission and Distribution 4 (4): 495–508. https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0317.
  • Behravesh, V., R. Keypour, and A. A. Foroud. 2018. “Stochastic Analysis of Solar and Wind Hybrid Rooftop Generation Systems and their Impact on Voltage Behavior in Low Voltage Distribution Systems.” Solar Energy 166 (June 2017): 317–333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.03.063.
  • Bletterie, B., S. Kadam, R. Bolgaryn, and A. Zegers. 2017. “Voltage Control with PV Inverters in Low Voltage Networks-in Depth Analysis of Different Concepts and Parameterization Criteria.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 32 (1): 177–185. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2554099.
  • Bollen, M., and F. Hassan. 2011. Integration of Distributed Generation in the Power System. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Bollen, M. H. J., and S. K. Rönnberg. 2017. “Hosting Capacity of the Power Grid for Renewable Electricity Production and New Large Consumption Equipment.” Energies (Basel) 10 (9): 1–28.
  • Breker, S., A. Claudi, and B. Sick. 2015. “Capacity of Low-voltage Grids for Distributed Generation: Classification by Means of Stochastic Simulations.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 30 (2): 689–700. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2332361.
  • Ching, W.-K., and M. K. Ng. 2006. Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications. Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-29337-x
  • Comello, S., S. Reichelstein, and A. Sahoo. 2018. “The Road Ahead for Solar PV Power.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 92:744–756. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.098.
  • Conti, S., and S. Raiti. 2007. “Probabilistic Load Flow Using Monte Carlo Techniques for Distribution Networks with Photovoltaic Generators.” Solar Energy 81 (12): 1473–1481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2007.02.007.
  • Ding, F., and B. Mather. 2017. “On Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Estimation, Sensitivity Study, and Improvement.” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 8 (3): 1010–1020. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2016.2640239.
  • Dubey, A., and S. Santoso. 2017. “On Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Distribution Circuit’s Photovoltaic Hosting Capacity.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 32 (4): 2779–2789. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2622286.
  • Dubey, A., S. Santoso, and A. Maitra. 2015. “Understanding Photovoltaic Hosting Capacity of Distribution Circuits.” IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.
  • Electric Power Research Institute. 2012. “Stochastic Analysis to Determine Feeder Hosting Capacity for Distributed Solar PV”.
  • Elrayyah, A. Y., M. Z. C. Wanik, and A. Bouselham. 2017. “Simplified Approach to Analyze Voltage Rise in LV Systems With PV Installations Using Equivalent Power Systems Diagrams.” IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 32 (4): 2140–2149. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2016.2594242.
  • Emmanuel, M., and R. Rayudu. 2017. “The Impact of Single-phase Grid-connected Distributed Photovoltaic Systems on the Distribution Network Using P-Q and P-V Models.” International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 91:20–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2017.03.001.
  • Gilks, W. R., S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter. 1996. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, First. Dordrecht: Springer-Science + Business Media, B.V. https://doi.org/10.2307/2965438.
  • Gooding, P. A., E. Makram, and R. Hadidi. 2014. “Probability Analysis of Distributed Generation for Island Scenarios Utilizing Carolinas Data.” Electric Power Systems Research 107:125–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2013.09.012.
  • Gözel, T., and M. H. Hocaoglu. 2009. “An Analytical Method for the Sizing and Siting of Distributed Generators in Radial Systems.” Electric Power Systems Research 79 (6): 912–918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2008.12.007.
  • Handayani, K., Y. Krozer, and T. Filatova. 2019. “From Fossil Fuels to Renewables: An Analysis of Long-term Scenarios Considering Technological Learning.” Energy Policy 127:134–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.045.
  • Hasheminamin, M., V. G. Agelidis, V. Salehi, R. Teodorescu, and B. Hredzak. 2015. “Index-based Assessment of Voltage Rise and Reverse Power Flow Phenomena in a Distribution Feeder under High PV Penetration.” IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics 5 (4): 1158–1168. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2015.2417753.
  • He, M., L. Yang, J. Zhang, and V. Vittal. 2014. “A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Approach for Short-term Forecast of Wind Farm Generation.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 29 (4): 1611–1622. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2299767.
  • Heslop, S., I. MacGill, and J. Fletcher. 2016. “Maximum PV Generation Estimation Method for Residential Low Voltage Feeders.” Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 7:58–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2016.06.003.
  • IEA. 2022. “Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2022.” www.iea-pvps.org.
  • IEEE Power & Energy Society. 2014. “IEEE PES AMPS DSAS Test Feeder Working Group.” Accessed September 21, 2019. http://sites.ieee.org/pes-testfeeders/resources/.
  • Inacio, C. O., and C. L. T. Borges. April 2018. “Stochastic Model for Generation of High-Resolution Irradiance Data and Estimation of Power Output of Photovoltaic Plants.” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 9 (2): 952–960. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2017.2767780.
  • IRENA. 2022. “Renewable Capacity Statistics 2022.” www.irena.org.
  • Jin, J., L. Ye, J. Li, Y. Zhao, P. Lu, W. Wang, and X. Wang. May 2022. “Wind and Photovoltaic Power Time Series Data Aggregation Method Based on an Ensemble Clustering and Markov Chain.” CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems 8 (3): 757–768. https://doi.org/10.17775/CSEEJPES.2020.03700.
  • Kabir, M. N., Y. Mishra, and R. C. Bansal. 2016. “Probabilistic Load Flow for Distribution Systems with Uncertain PV Generation.” Applied Energy 163:343–351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.003.
  • Karakaya, E., A. Hidalgo, and C. Nuur. 2015. “Motivators for Adoption of Photovoltaic Systems at Grid Parity: A Case Study from Southern Germany.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 43:1090–1098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.11.077.
  • Kolenc, M., I. Papič, and B. Blažič. 2015. “Assessment of Maximum Distributed Generation Penetration Levels in Low Voltage Networks Using a Probabilistic Approach.” International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 64:505–515. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.07.063.
  • Luthander, R., D. Lingfors, and J. Widén. 2017. “Large-scale Integration of Photovoltaic Power in A Distribution Grid Using Power Curtailment and Energy Storage.” Solar Energy 155:1319–1325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2017.07.083.
  • Mokryani, G., Y. F. Hu, P. Papadopoulos, T. Niknam, and J. Aghaei. 2017. “Deterministic Approach for Active Distribution Networks Planning with High Penetration of Wind and Solar Power.” Renewable Energy 113:942–951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.074.
  • Mortazavi, H., H. Mehrjerdi, M. Saad, S. Lefebvre, D. Asber, and L. Lenoir. 2015. “A Monitoring Technique for Reversed Power Flow Detection with High PV Penetration Level.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 6 (5): 2221–2232. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2397887.
  • Mulenga, E., M. H. J. Bollen, and N. Etherden. 2020. “A Review of Hosting Capacity Quantification Methods for Photovoltaics in Low-voltage Distribution Grids.” International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 115 (February 2019): 105445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2019.105445.
  • Nor, N. M., A. Ali, T. Ibrahim, and M. F. Romlie. November 2017. “Battery Storage for the Utility-scale Distributed Photovoltaic Generations.” IEEE Access 6:1137–1154. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2017.2778004.
  • Olivier, F., P. Aristidou, D. Ernst, and T. Van Cutsem. 2016. “Active Management of Low-voltage Networks for Mitigating Overvoltages Due to Photovoltaic Units.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 7 (2): 926–936. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2410171.
  • Privault, N. 2013. Understanding Markov Chains. http://www.springer.com/series/3423.
  • Rallabandi, V., O. M. Akeyo, N. Jewell, and D. M. Ionel. January 2019. “Incorporating Battery Energy Storage Systems into Multi-MW Grid Connected PV Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 55 (1): 638–647. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIA.2018.2864696.
  • Reno, M. J., K. Coogan, J. Seuss, and R. J. Broderick. 2016. “Novel Methods to Determine Feeder Locational PV Hosting Capacity and PV Impact Signatures.”
  • Santos-Martin, D., and S. Lemon. 2016. “Simplified Modeling of Low Voltage Distribution Networks for PV Voltage Impact Studies.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 7 (4): 1924–1931. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2015.2500620.
  • Shayani, R. A., and M. A. G. De Oliveira. August 2011. “Photovoltaic Generation Penetration Limits in Radial Distribution Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 26 (3): 1625–1631. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2010.2077656.
  • Smith, J. (EPRI), M. Rylander (EPRI), M. J. Reno, Robert Broderick, and B. Mather (NREL). 2015. “Alternatives to the 15% Rule – Modeling and Hosting Capacity Analysis of 16 Feeders.”
  • Torquato, R., D. Salles, C. O. Pereira, P. C. M. Meira, and W. Freitas. 2018. “A Comprehensive Assessment of PV Hosting Capacity on Low-voltage Distribution Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 33 (2): 1002–1012. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2018.2798707.
  • US Energy Information Administration. August 2021. “Battery Storage in the United States: An Update on Market Trends.” www.eia.gov.
  • Vergara, P. P., M. Salazar, T. T. Mai, P. H. Nguyen, and H. Slootweg. 2020. “A Comprehensive Assessment of PV Inverters Operating with Droop Control for Overvoltage Mitigation in LV Distribution Networks.” Renewable Energy 159:172–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.05.151.
  • Wang, S., Y. Dong, L. Wu, and B. Yan. 2020. “Interval Overvoltage Risk Based PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering PV and Load Uncertainties.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 11 (3): 2709–2721. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSG.2019.2960335.
  • Wang, C., and M. H. Nehrir. 2004. “Analytical Approaches for Optimal Placement of Distributed Generation Sources in Power Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 19 (4): 2068–2076. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2004.836189.
  • Xu, S., M. I. Alhamid, and W. L. Dutre. November 1989. “Reconstruction of Synthetic Meteorological Sequences by Using Markov Transition Matrix for Solar Thermal Simulation.” International Journal of Solar Energy 7 (1): 47–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/01425918908914245.
  • Yang, Y., Q. Ye, L. J. Tung, M. Greenleaf, and H. Li. January 2018. “Integrated Size and Energy Management Design of Battery Storage to Enhance Grid Integration of Large-Scale PV Power Plants.” IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics 65 (1): 394–402. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIE.2017.2721878.
  • Zargar, R. H. M., and M. H. Yaghmaee Moghaddam. 2020. “Development of a Markov-Chain-based Solar Generation Model for Smart Microgrid Energy Management System.” IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 11 (2): 736–745. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2019.2904436.
  • Zubo, R. H. A., G. Mokryani, H. S. Rajamani, J. Aghaei, T. Niknam, and P. Pillai. 2017. “Operation and Planning of Distribution Networks with Integration of Renewable Distributed Generators Considering Uncertainties: A Review.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 72 (May 2016): 1177–1198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.036.