The development of the Medium Security Recidivism Assessment Guide (MSRAG): an actuarial risk prediction instrument

References

• Baxter , R. , Rabe-Hesketh , S. and Parrott , J. 1999 . Characteristics, needs and reoffending in a group of patients with schizophrenia formerly treated in medium security . The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry , 10 : 69 – 83 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Black , D. A. 1982 . “ A 5-year follow-up study of male patients discharged from Broadmoor Hospital ” . In Abnormal offenders, delinquency and the criminal justice system , Edited by: Gunn , J. and Farrington , D. P. 307 – 323 . London : John Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Bonta , J. , Law , M. and Hanson , K. 1998 . The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis . Psychological Bulletin , 123 : 123 – 142 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buchanan , A. 1999 . Risk and dangerousness . Psychological Medicine , 29 : 465 – 473 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cannon , M. , Huttunen , M. O. , Tanskanen , A. J. , Arseneault , L. , Jones , P. B. and Murray , R. M. 2002 . Perinatal and childhood risk factors for later criminality and violence in schizophrenia . British Journal of Psychiatry , 180 : 496 – 501 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coid , J. , Hickey , N. , Kahtan , N. , Zhang , T. and Yang , M. 2007 . Patients discharged from medium secure forensic psychiatry services: Reconvictions and risk factors . British Journal of Psychiatry , 190 : 223 – 229 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coid , J. , Hickey , N. and Yang , M. 2007 . Comparison of outcomes following aftercare from forensic and general adult psychiatric services . British Journal of Psychiatry , 190 : 509 – 514 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coid , J. and Kahtan , N. 2000 . An instrument to measure the security needs of patients admitted to medium security . Journal of Forensic Psychiatry , 11 : 119 – 134 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coid , J. , Kahtan , N. , Gault , S. , Cook , A. and Jarman , B. 2001 . Medium secure forensic psychiatry services: Comparison of seven English health regions . British Journal of Psychiatry , 178 : 55 – 61 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Copas , J. B. and Marshall , P. 1998 . The Offender Group Reconviction Scale: The statistical reconviction score for use by probation officers . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , 47 : 159 – 171 .
   Google Scholar
• Davies , S. , Clarke , M. , Hollin , C. and Duggan , C. 2007 . Long-term outcomes after discharge from medium secure care: A cause for concern . British Journal of Psychiatry , 191 : 70 – 74 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dolan , M. and Fullam , R. 2007 . The validity of the Violence Risk Scale second edition (VRS-2) in a British forensic inpatient sample . The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology , 18 : 381 – 393 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edwards , J. , Steed , P. and Murray , K. 2002 . Clinical and forensic outcome 2 years and 5 years after admission to a medium secure unit . The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry , 13 : 68 – 87 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Friendship , C. , McClintock , T. , Rutter , S. and Maden , A. 1999 . Re-offending: Patients discharged from a regional secure unit . Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health , 9 : 226 – 236 .
   Google Scholar
• Gagliardi , G. J. , Lovell , D. , Peterson , P. D. and Jemelka , R. 2004 . Forecasting recidivism in mentally ill offenders released from prison . Law and Human Behaviour , 28 : 133 – 155 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray , N. S. , Snowden , R. J. , MacCulloch , S. , Phillips , H. , Taylor , J. and MacCulloch , M. J. 2004 . Relative efficacy of criminological, clinical, and personality measures of future risk of offending in mentally disordered offenders: A comparative study of HCR-20, PCL:SV, and OGRS . Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology , 72 : 523 – 530 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hare , R. D. 2004 . The Hare Psychopathy Checklist – revised (PCL-R) , 2nd ed. , Toronto : Multi-Health Systems .
   Google Scholar
• Kraemer , H. C. , Kazdin , A. E. , Offord , D. R. , Kessler , R. C. , Jensen , P. S. and Kupfer , D. J. 1997 . Coming to terms with terms of risk . Archives of General Psychiatry , 54 : 337 – 343 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamberti , J. S. 2007 . Understanding and preventing criminal recidivism among adults with psychotic disorders . Psychiatric Services , 58 : 773 – 781 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maden , A. , Rutter , S. , McClintock , T. , Friendship , C. and Gunn , J. 1999 . Outcome of admission to a medium secure psychiatric unit: Short and long-term outcome . British Journal of Psychiatry , 175 : 313 – 316 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maden , A. , Scott , F. , Burnett , R. , Lewis , G. H. and Skapinakis , P. 2004 . Offending in psychiatric patients after discharge from medium secure units: Prospective national cohort study . British Medical Journal , 328 : 1534
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maden , A. , Skapinakis , P. , Lewis , G. , Scott , F. , Burnett , R. and Jamieson , E. 2006 . Gender differences in reoffending after discharge from medium secure units . British Journal of Psychiatry , 189 : 168 – 172 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Philips , H. K. , Gray , N. S. , MacCulloch , S. I. , Taylor , J. , Moore , S. C. , Huckle , P. and MacCulloch , M. J. 2005 . Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: Relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history and clinical variables . Journal of Interpersonal Violence , 20 : 833 – 847 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Philipse , M. W.G. , Koeter , M. W.J. , van der Staak , C. P.F. and van den Brink , W. 2006 . Static and dynamic patient characteristics as predictors of criminal recidivism: A prospective study in a Dutch forensic psychiatric sample . Law and Human Behaviour , 30 : 309 – 327 .
   Google Scholar
• Price , R. 1997 . On the risks of risk prediction . The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry , 8 : 1 – 4 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prins , H. 1990 . Some observations on the supervision of dangerous offender patients . British Journal of Psychiatry , 156 : 157 – 162 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quinsey , G. , Harris , G. , Rice , M. and Cormier , C. 1998 . Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk , Washington, DC : American Psychological Association .
   Google Scholar
• Snowden , R. J. , Gray , N. S. , Taylor , J. and MacCulloch , M. J. 2007 . Actuarial prediction of violent recidivism in mentally disordered offenders . Psychological Medicine , 37 : 1539 – 1549 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sturidsson , K. , Haggard-Grann , U. , Lotterberg , M. , Dernevik , M. and Grann , N. 2004 . Clinicians' perceptions of which factors increase or decrease the risk of violence among forensic out-patients . International Journal of Forensic Mental Health , 3 : 23 – 36 .
   Google Scholar
• Szmukler , G. 2001 . Violence risk prediction in practice . British Journal of Psychiatry , 178 : 84 – 85 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor , R. 1999 . Predicting reconvictions for sexual and violent offences using the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale (Research Findings 104) , London : Home Office RDS Directorate .
   Google Scholar
• Thornton , D. , Mann , R. , Webster , S. , Blud , L. , Travers , R. , Friendship , C. and Erickson , M. 2003 . Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism . Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , 989 : 225 – 235 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Webster , C. D. , Douglas , K. S. , Eaves , D. and Hart , S. D. 1997 . HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence (version 2) , Vancouver : Simon Fraser University .
   Google Scholar
• World Health Organisation. 1992 . The ICD-10 classification of mental and behavioural disorders , Geneva : Author .
   Google Scholar
• Zweig , M. H. and Campbell , G. 1993 . Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots: A fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine . Clinical Chemistry , 39 : 561 – 577 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar