It's About Time: Optimistic Predictions in Work and Love

References

• Alicke , M. D. 1985 . Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 49 : 1621 – 30 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson , C. A. 1983 . Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal intentions . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 45 : 293 – 305 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson , C. A. and Godfrey , S. S. 1987 . Thought about actions: The effects of specificity and availability of imagined behavioral scripts on expectations about oneself and others . Social Cognition , 5 : 238 – 58 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arkes , H. R. , Faust , D. , Guilmette , T. J. and Hart , K. 1988 . Eliminating the hindsight bias . Journal of Applied Psychology , 73 : 305 – 7 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bierce , A. 1914 . The Devil's Dictionary New York : World Publishing Company .
   Google Scholar
• Buehler , R. , Griffin , D. and Ross , M. 1994 . Exploring the ‘planning fallacy’: Why people underestimate their task completion times . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 67 : 366 – 81 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buehler , R. , MacDonald , H. and Griffin , D. 1994 . The impact of optimistic predictions on task completion times Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Psychological Association, Penticton, British Columbia, Canada
   Google Scholar
• Cantril , H. 1938 . The prediction of social events . Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , 38 : 6 – 47 .
   Google Scholar
• Carroll , J. S. 1978 . The effect of imaging an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic . Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , 14 : 88 – 96 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dawes , R. M. 1988 . Rational Choice in an Uncertain World Orlando, FL : Harcourt Brace Jovanovich .
   Google Scholar
• Dunning , D. , Meyerowitz , J. A. and Holzberg , A. 1989 . Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 57 : 1082 – 90 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feltz , D. L. and Landers , D. M. 1983 . The effects of mental practice on motor learning and performance: A meta-analysis . Journal of Sports Psychology , 5 : 25 – 57 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Filyer , R. , Griffin , D. and Ross , M. 1994 . Unpublished manuscript
   Google Scholar
• Fischhoff , B. , Slovic , P. and Lichtenstein , S. 1978 . Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance , 4 : 330 – 4 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fiske , S. T. 1993 . “ Social cognition and social perceptions ” . In Annual Review of Psychology , Edited by: Porter , L. W. and Rosenberg , M. R. Vol. 44 , 155 – 94 . Palo Alto : Annual Reviews Inc .
   Google Scholar
• Fraisse , P. 1963 . Psychology of Time New York : Harper & Row .
   Google Scholar
• Fraisse , P. 1984 . Perception and estimation of time . Annual Review of Psychology , 35 : 1 – 36 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gollwitzer , P. M. 1990 . “ Action phases and mind-sets ” . In Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of social behavior , Edited by: Higgins , E. T. and Sorrentino , R. M. Vol. 2 , 53 – 92 . New York : Guilford Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gollwitzer , P. M. 1993 . “ Goal achievement: The role of intentions ” . In European Review of Social Psychology , Edited by: Stroebe , W. and Hewstone , M. Vol. 4 , 141 – 185 . Chichester : John Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Gollwitzer , P. M. and Brandstätter , V. 1990 . Do initiation intentions prevent procrastination? Budapest Paper presented at the 8th General Meeting of the European Association of Experimental Social Psychology
   Google Scholar
• Gollwitzer , P. M. , Heckhausen , H. and Ratajczak , H. 1990 . From weighing to willing: Approaching a change decision through pre- or postdecisional mentation . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 45 : 41 – 65 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gollwitzer , P. M. , Heckhausen , H. and Steller , B. 1990 . Deliberative and implemental mind-sets: Cognitive turning toward congruous thoughts and information . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 59 : 1119 – 27 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregory , W. L. , Cialdini , R. B. and Carpenter , K. M. 1982 . Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so? . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 43 : 89 – 99 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Griffin , D. W. , Dunning , D. and Ross , L. 1990 . The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 59 : 1128 – 39 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hall , E. G. and Erffmeyer , E. S. 1983 . The effect of visuo-motor behavior rehearsal with videotaped modelling of free throw accuracy of intercollegiate female basketball players . Journal of Sport Psychology , 5 : 343 – 6 .
   Google Scholar
• Hall , P. 1980 . Great planning disasters London : Weidenfeld & Nicholson .
   Google Scholar
• Hayes-Roth , B. 1981 . “ A cognitive science approach to improving planning ” . In Proceedings of the Third Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society , Berkeley, CA : Cognitive Science Society .
   Google Scholar
• Hayes-Roth , B. and Hayes-Roth , F. 1979 . A cognitive model of planning . Cognitive Science , 3 : 275 – 310 .
   Google Scholar
• Hoch , S. J. 1984 . Availability and interference in predictive judgment . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , 10 : 649 – 62 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoch , S. J. 1985 . Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events . Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , 11 : 719 – 31 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Janis , I. L. 1982 . Groupthink: Psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes, , (2nd edn) , Boston, MA : Houghton Mifflin .
   Google Scholar
• Johnson , M. K. and Sherman , S. J. 1990 . “ Constructing and reconstructing the past and the future in the present ” . In Handbook of Motivation and Social Cognition: Foundations of social behavior , Edited by: Higgins , E. T. and Sorrentino , R. M. Vol. 2 , 482 – 526 . New York : Guilford Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jones , E. E. and Davis , K. E. 1965 . “ From acts to dispositions: The attribution process in person perception ” . In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology , Edited by: Berkowitz , L. Vol. 2 , New York : Academic Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jones , E. E. and Nisbett , R. E. 1972 . “ The actor and the observer: Divergent perceptions of the causes of behavior ” . In Attribution: Perceiving the causes of behavior , Edited by: Jones , E. E. , Kanouse , D. E. , Kelley , H. H. , Nisbett , R. E. , Valins , S. and Weiner , B. Morristown, NJ : General Learning Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kahneman , D. and Lovallo , D. 1991 . “ Bold forecasting and timid decisions: A cognitive perspective on risk taking ” . In Fundamental Issues in Strategy , Edited by: Rumelt , R. , Schendel , P. and Teece , D. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kahneman , D. and Tversky , A. 1979 . Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures . TIMS Studies in Management Science , 12 : 313 – 27 .
   Google Scholar
• Kahneman , D. and Tversky , A. 1982 . “ The simulation heuristic ” . In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , Edited by: Kahneman , D. , Slovic , P. and Tversky , A. 201 – 8 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kelley , H. H. 1967 . “ Attribution theory in social psychology ” . In Nebraska Symposium on Motivation , Edited by: Vine , D. L. Vol. 15 , 192 – 240 . Lincoln, NB : University of Nebraska Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kidd , J. B. 1970 . The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning . Acta Psychologica , 34 : 338 – 47 .
   Google Scholar
• Klayman , J. and Schoemaker , P. J. H. 1993 . Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective . Journal of Forecasting , 12 : 161 – 8 .
   Google Scholar
• Koehler , D. J. 1991 . Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment . Psychological Bulletin , 110 : 499 – 519 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kruglanski , A. W. 1989 . Lay Epistemics and Human Knowledge New York : Plenum .
   Google Scholar
• Kruglanski , A. W. 1990 . “ Motivation for judging and knowing: Implications for causal attribution ” . In Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of social behavior , Edited by: Higgins , E. T. and Sorrentino , R. M. Vol. 2 , 333 – 68 . New York : Guilford Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kunda , Z. 1990 . The case for motivated reasoning . Psychological Bulletin , 108 : 480 – 98 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Levi , A. S. and Pryor , J. B. 1987 . Use of the availability heuristic in probability estimates of future events. The effects of imagining outcomes versus impinging reasons . Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 40 : 219 – 34 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Levin , I. and Zakay , D. 1989 . “ Time and human cognition: A life-span perspective ” . In Advances in Psychology , Edited by: Stelmach , G. E. and Vroon , P. A. Vol. 59 , Amsterdam : North Holland .
   Google Scholar
• Lichtenstein , S. , Fischhoff , B. and Phillips , L. D. 1982 . “ Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 ” . In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , Edited by: Kahneman , D. , Slovic , P. and Tversky , A. 306 – 34 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Macar , F. , Pouthas , V. and Friedman , W. J. 1992 . Time, Action and Cognition: Towards bridging the gap , Vol. 66 , Dordrecht : Kluwer .
   Google Scholar
• Marlatt , G. A. 1978 . “ Craving for alcohol, loss of control, and relapse: A cognitive-behavioral analysis ” . In Alcoholism: New directions in behavioral research and treatment , Edited by: Nathan , P. E. , Marlatt , G. A. and Loberg , T. 271 – 314 . New York : Plenum .
   Google Scholar
• Meichenbaum , D. H. and Goodman , J. 1971 . Training impulsive children to talk to themselves: A means of developing self-control . Journal of Abnormal Psychology , 77 : 115 – 26 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Myers , D. G. and Lamm , H. 1976 . Group-induced polarization in simulated juries . Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 2 : 63 – 66 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Osberg , T. M. and Shrauger , J. S. 1986 . Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 51 : 1044 – 57 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perloff , L. S. and Fetzer , B. K. 1986 . Self–other judgments and perceived vulnerability of victimization . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 50 : 502 – 10 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pervin , L. A. 1989 . Goal Concepts in Personality and Social Psychology Hillsdale : Erlbaum .
   Google Scholar
• Pruitt , D. G. and Hoge , R. D. 1965 . Strength of the relationship between the value of an event and its subjective probability as a function of method of measurement . Journal of Experimental Psychology , 5 : 483 – 9 .
   Google Scholar
• Read , S. J. 1987 . Constructing causal scenarios: A knowledge structure approach to causal reasoning . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 52 : 288 – 302 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rehm , J. T. and Gadenne , V. 1990 . Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts: Cognitive processes and social consequences New York : Pergamon Press .
   Google Scholar
• Roese , N. J. 1994 . The functional basis of counterfactual thinking . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 66 : 805 – 18 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shaklee , H. and Fischhoff , B. 1982 . Strategies of information search in causal analysis . Memory and Cognition , 10 : 520 – 30 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sherman , S. J. 1980 . On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 39 : 211 – 21 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sherman , S. J. , Skov , R. B. , Hervitz , E. F. and Stock , C. B. 1981 . The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond . Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , 17 : 142 – 58 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sherman , S. J. , Zehner , K. S. , Johnson , J. and Hirt , E. R. 1983 . Social explanation: The role of timing, set, and recall on subjective likelihood estimates . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 44 : 1127 – 43 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shrauger , J. S. 1990 . Some virtues of self-prediction Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Experimental Social Psychology, Buffalo, NY
   Google Scholar
• Shrauger , J. S. and Osberg , T. M. 1982 . “ Self-awareness: The ability to predict one's future behaviour ” . In Aspects of Consciousness , Edited by: Underwood , G. Vol. 3 , 267 – 313 . London : Academic Press .
   Google Scholar
• Snyder , C. R. and Higgins , R. L. 1988 . Excuses: Their effective role in the negotiation of reality . Psychological Bulletin , 104 : 23 – 55 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Srull , T. K. and Wyer , R. S. 1986 . “ The role of chronic and temporary goals in social information processing ” . In Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of social behavior , Edited by: Sorrentino , R. M. and Higgins , E. T. Vol. 1 , 503 – 49 . New York : Guilford Press .
   Google Scholar
• Taylor , S. E. 1989 . Positive Illusions: Creative self-deception and the healthy mind New York : Basic Books .
   Google Scholar
• Taylor , S. E. and Brown , J. D. 1988 . Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health . Psychological Bulletin , 103 : 193 – 210 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor , S. E. and Schneider , S. K. 1989 . Coping and the simulation of events . Social Cognition , 7 : 174 – 194 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tversky , A. and Kahneman , D. 1974 . Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases . Science , 185 : 1124 – 31 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vallone , R. P. , Griffin , D. W. , Lin , S. and Ross , L. 1990 . Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 58 : 582 – 92 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weiner , B. 1985 . An attributional theory of achievement motivation and emotion . Psychological Review , 92 : 548 – 73 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weinstein , N. D. 1980 . Unrealistic optimism about future life events . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 39 : 806 – 20 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weinstein , N. D. and Lachendro , E. 1982 . Egocentrism as a source of unrealistic optimism . Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , 8 : 195 – 200 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yates , J. F. 1990 . Judgment and Decision Making Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Zakay , D. 1983 . The relationship between the probability assessor and the outcomes of an event as a determiner of subjective probability . Acta Psychologica , 53 : 271 – 80 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zukier , H. 1986 . “ The paradigmatic and narrative modes in goal-guided inference ” . In Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of social behavior , Edited by: Sorrentino , R. M. and Higgins , E. T. Vol. 1 , 465 – 502 . New York : Guilford Press .
   Google Scholar