Expert Elicitation for the Judgment of Prion Disease Risk Uncertainties

REFERENCES

• Bennett , P. , Hare , A. and Townshend , J. 2005 . Assessing the risk of vCJD transmission via surgery: models for uncertainty and complexity . J. Oper. Res. Soc. , 56 : 202 – 213 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bihl , F. , Castelli , D. , Marincola , F. , Dodd , R. Y. and Brander , C. 2007 . Transfusion-transmitted infections . J. Transl. Med. , 5 : 25
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bingham , B. 2002 . New variant CJD-BSE (mad cow disease). The need for disposable ENT instruments . Int. J. Pediatr. Otorhinolaryngol. , 62 : 203 – 206 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blanchette , P. , Rivard , G. , Israels , S. , Robinson , S. , Ali , K. , Walker , I. , Stain , A. M. , Blanchette , V. and Association of Hemophilia Clinic Directors of Canada, and Canadian Association of Nurses in Hemophilia Care . 2004 . A survey of factor prophylaxis in the Canadian haemophilia A population . Haemophilia , 10 : 679 – 683 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown , P. , Rohwer , R. G. , Dunstan , B. C. , MacAuley , C. , Gajdusek , D. C. and Drohan , W. N. 1998 . The distribution of infectivity in blood components and plasma derivatives in experimental models of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy . Transfusion , 38 : 810 – 816 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bruce , M. E. , McConnell , I. , Will , R. G. and Ironside , J. W. 2001 . Detection of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease infectivity in extraneural tissues . Lancet , 358 : 208 – 209 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Budnitz , R. J. , Boore , D. M. , Apostolakis , G. , Cluff , L. S. , Coppersmith , K. J. , Cornell , C. A. and Morris , P. A. 1995 . “ Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts ” . In NUREG CR-6372, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
   Google Scholar
• Budnitz , R. J. , Apostolakis , G. , Boore , D. M. , Cluff , L. S. , Coppersmith , K. J. , Cornell , C. A. and Morris , P. A. 1998 . Use of technical expert panels: Applications to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis . Risk Anal. , 18 : 463 – 469 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Canadian Blood Services. 2009. Deferral policies for vCJD http://www.bloodservices.ca/centreapps/internet/uw_v502_mainengine.nsf/web/4F7E837A2D7C079685256AB100501F20?OpenDocument (http://www.bloodservices.ca/centreapps/internet/uw_v502_mainengine.nsf/web/4F7E837A2D7C079685256AB100501F20?OpenDocument)
   Google Scholar
• Canadian Hemophilia Society. 2009. vCJD infection reported in a person with hemophilia in UK: FVIII concentrates considered most likely cause http://www.ahcdc.ca/documents/2009-02-19%20CHS%20and%20AHCDC%20vCJD%20infection%20-%20EN.pdf (http://www.ahcdc.ca/documents/2009-02-19%20CHS%20and%20AHCDC%20vCJD%20infection%20-%20EN.pdf)
   Google Scholar
• Cervenakova , L. , Yakovleva , O. , McKenzie , C. , Kolchinsky , S. , McShane , L. , Drohan , W. N. and Brown , P. 2003 . Similar levels of infectivity in the blood of mice infected with human-derived vCJD and GSS strains of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy . Transfusion , 43 : 1687 – 1694 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clarke , P. and Ghani , A .C. 2005 . Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility . J. R. Soc. Interface , 2 : 19 – 31 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clewley , J. P. , Kelly , C. M. , Andrews , N. , Vogliqi , K. , Mallinson , G. , Kaisar , M. , Hilton , D. A. , Ironside , J. W. , Edwards , P. , McCardle , L. M. , Ritchie , D. L. , Dabaghian , R. , Ambrose , H. E. and Gill , O. N. 2009 . Prevalence of disease related prion protein in anonymous tonsil specimens in Britain: Cross sectional opportunistic survey . Br. Med. J. , 338 : b1442
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Collinge , J. , Whitfield , J. , McKintosh , E. , Frosh , A. , Mead , S. , Hill , A. F. , Brandner , S. , Thomas , D. and Alpers , M. P. 2008 . A clinical study of kuru patients with long incubation periods at the end of the epidemic in Papua New Guinea . Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. , 363 : 3725 – 3739 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke , R. M. and Goossens , L. H. J. 2008 . TU Delft expert judgment data base . Reliability Eng. System Safety , 93 : 657 – 674 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke , R. M. 1991 . Experts in uncertainty—Opinion and subjective probability in science. Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series , Oxford : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Det Norske Veritas. 2003. Appendix II Infectivity of blood. Risk assessment of exposure to vCJD infectivity in blood and blood products for Department of Health. United Kingdom http://www.dnv.com/binaries/AppII_tcm4-74416.pdf (http://www.dnv.com/binaries/AppII_tcm4-74416.pdf)
   Google Scholar
• Dobra , S. A. and Bennett , P. G. 2006 . vCJD and blood transfusion: Risk assessment in the United Kingdom . Transfus. Clin. Biol. , 13 : 307 – 311 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Donnelly , C. A. 2000 . Likely size of the French BSE epidemic . Nature , 408 : 787 – 788 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Donnelly , C. A. , Ferguson , N. M. , Ghani , A. C. and Anderson , R. M. 2002 . Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels . Proc. Biol. Sci. , 269 : 2179 – 2190 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eaton , L. 2009 . Haemophilia patient had variant CJD agent in spleen . Br. Med. J. , 338 : b705
   Google Scholar
• Farrugia , A. 2008 . Globalisation and blood safety . Blood Rev. , 23 : 123 – 128 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ghani , A. C. , Ferguson , N. M. , Donnelly , C. A. and Anderson , R. M. 2003 . Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK . Proc. Biol. Sci. , 270 : 689 – 698 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregori , L. , McCombie , N. , Palmer , D. , Birch , P. , Sowemimo-Coker , S. O. , Giulivi , A. and Rohwer , R. G. 2004 . Effectiveness of leucoreduction for removal of infectivity of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from blood . Lancet , 364 : 529 – 531 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hewitt , P. E. , Llewelyn , C. A. , Mackenzie , J. and Will , R. G. 2006 . Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and blood transfusion: Results of the UK Transfusion Medicine Epidemiological Review study . Vox Sang. , 91 : 221 – 230 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hill , A. F. , Butterworth , R. J. , Joiner , S. , Jackson , G. , Rossor , M. N. , Thomas , D. J. , Frosh , A. , Tolley , N. , Bell , J. E. , Spencer , M. , King , A. , Al-Sarraj , S. , Ironside , J. W. , Lantos , P. L. and Collinge , J. 1999 . Investigation of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and other human prion diseases with tonsil biopsy samples . Lancet , 353 : 183 – 189 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hilton , D. A. , Ghani , A. C. , Conyers , L. , Edwards , P. , McCardle , L. , Ritchie , D. , Penney , M. , Hegazy , D. and Ironside , J. W. 2004 . Prevalence of lymphoreticular prion protein accumulation in UK tissue samples . J. Pathol. , 203 : 733 – 739 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ironside , J. W. 2006 . Variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease: Risk of transmission by blood transfusion and blood therapies . Haemophilia , 12 ( suppl. 1 ) : 8 – 15 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Johnston , L. and Conly , J. 2001 . Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and infection control . Can. J. Infect. Dis. , 12 ( 6 ) : 332 – 336 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Kendall , M. and Smith , B. 1940 . On the method of paired comparisons . Biometrika , 31 : 324 – 345 .
   Google Scholar
• Kendall , M. 1975 . Rank correlation methods , London, , England : Charles Griffin & Company .
   Google Scholar
• Kong , Q. , Huang , S. , Zou , W. , Vanegas , D. , Wang , M. , Wu , D. , Yuan , J. , Zheng , M. , Bai , H. , Deng , H. , Chen , K. , Jenny , A.L. , O'Rourke , K. , Belay , E. D. , Schonberger , L. B. , Petersen , R. B. , Sy , M. S. , Chen , S. G. and Gambetti , P. 2005 . Chronic wasting disease of elk: Transmissibility to humans examined by transgenic mouse models . J. Neurosci. , 25 : 7944 – 7949 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kumar , H. , Gupta , P. K. , Mishra , D. K. , Sarkar , R. S. and Jaiprakash , M. 2006 . Leucodepletion and blood products . Medical Journal Armed Forces India , 62 : 174 – 177 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Lefrère , J. J. and Hewitt , P. 2009 . From mad cows to sensible blood transfusion: The risk of prion transmission by labile blood components in the United Kingdom and in France . Transfusion , 49 : 797 – 812 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liumbruno , G. , Bennardello , F. , Lattanzio , A. , Piccoli , P. and Rossetti , G. 2009 . Recommendations for the transfusion of red blood cells . Blood Transfus. , 7 : 49 – 64 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Llewelyn , C. A. , Hewitt , P. E. , Knight , R. S. , Amar , K. , Cousens , S. , Mackenzie , J. and Will , R. G. 2004 . Possible transmission of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease by blood transfusion . Lancet , 363 : 417 – 421 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Macutkiewicz , M. 2008 . Paired comparisons and group preference , TU Delft : Master of science thesis, unpublished. Applied Mathematics Risk and Environmental Modeling .
   Google Scholar
• National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Surveillance Unit. 2010. Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease. Current Data (October 2010) http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/vcjdworld.htm (http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/vcjdworld.htm)
   Google Scholar
• Notari , S. , Moleres , F. J. , Hunter , S. B. , Belay , E. D. , Schonberger , L. B. , Cali , I. , Parchi , P. , Shieh , W. J. , Brown , P. , Zaki , S. , Zou , W. Q. and Gambetti , P. 2010 . Multiorgan detection and characterization of protease-resistant prion protein in a case of variant CJD examined in the United States . PLoS One , 5 : e8765
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peden , A. H. , Head , M. W. , Ritchie , D. L. , Bell , J. E. and Ironside , J. W. 2004 . Preclinical vCJD after blood transfusion in a PRNP codon 129 heterozygous patient . Lancet , 364 : 527 – 529 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peden , A. , McCardle , L. , Head , M. W. , Love , S. , Ward , H. J. , Cousens , S. N. , Keeling , D. M. , Millar , C. M. , Hill , F. G. and Ironside , J. W. 2010 . Variant CJD infection in the spleen of a neurologically asymptomatic UK adult patient with haemophilia . Haemophilia , 16 : 296 – 304 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SEAC. 2006. Position statement on TSE infectivity in blood. July 16 http://www.seac.gov.uk/statements/statement0806.htm (http://www.seac.gov.uk/statements/statement0806.htm)
   Google Scholar
• Sowemimo-Coker , S. O. , Pesci , S. , Andrade , F. , Kim , A. , Kascsak , R. B. , Kascsak , R. J. , Meeker , C. and Carp , R. 2006 . Pall leukotrap affinity prion-reduction filter removes exogenous infectious prions and endogenous infectivity from red cell concentrates . Vox Sang. , 90 : 265 – 275 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sugiura , K. 2006 . Adjusted incidence risks of BSE in risk subpopulations of cattle in Japan . Prev. Vet. Med. , 75 : 163 – 176 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Supervie , V. and Costagliola , D. 2004 . The unrecognised French BSE epidemic . Vet. Res. , 35 : 349 – 362 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tyshenko , G.M. , ElSaadany , S. , Darshan , S. , Oraby , T. , Aspinall , W. , Cooke , R. , Catford , A. and Krewski , D. 2011 . Comparative expert judgment elicitation using the Classical Model and EXCALIBUR under conditions of uncertainty for prion disease risks . In preparation for submission ,
   Google Scholar
• UK Department of Health. 2001. Risk assessment for transmission of vCJD via surgical instruments: A modelling approach and numerical scenarios. Economics and Operational Research Division (EOR4), London, England http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_4075387?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=7174&Rendition=Web (http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_4075387?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=7174&Rendition=Web)
   Google Scholar
• Wadsworth , J. D. , Joiner , S. , Hill , A. F. , Campbell , T. A. , Desbruslais , M. , Luthert , P. J. and Collinge , J. 2001 . Tissue distribution of protease resistant prion protein in variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease using a highly sensitive immunoblotting assay . Lancet , 358 : 171 – 180 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wadsworth , J. D. , Asante , E. A. , Desbruslais , M. , Linehan , J. M. , Joiner , S. , Gowland , I. , Welch , J. , Stone , L. , Lloyd , S. E. , Hill , A. F. , Brandner , S. and Collinge , J. 2004 . Human prion protein with valine 129 prevents expression of variant CJD phenotype . Science , 306 : 1793 – 1796 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wells , G. A. , Konold , T. , Arnold , M. E. , Austin , A. R. , Hawkins , S. A. C. , Stack , M. , Simmons , M. M. , Lee , Y. H. , Gavier-Widén , D. , Dawson , M. and Wilesmith , J. W. 2007 . Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: The effect of oral exposure dose on attack rate and incubation period in cattle . J. Gene. Viro. , 88 : 1363 – 1373 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Will , R. G. , Ironside , J. W. , Zeidler , M. , Cousens , S. N. , Estibeiro , K. , Alperovitch , A. , Poser , S. , Pocchiari , M. , Hofman , A. and Smith , P. G. 1996 . A new variant of Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in the UK . Lancet , 347 : 921 – 925 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wroe , S. J. , Pal , S. , Siddique , D. , Hyare , H. , Macfarlane , R. , Joiner , S. , Linehan , J. M. , Brandner , S. , Wadsworth , J. D. , Hewitt , P. and Collinge , J. 2006 . Clinical presentation and pre-mortem diagnosis of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease associated with blood transfusion: A case report . Lancet , 368 : 2061 – 2067 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar