253
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Forecasting time trends of fatal motor vehicle crashes in Iran using an ensemble learning algorithm

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 44-49 | Received 16 Mar 2022, Accepted 23 Sep 2022, Published online: 24 Oct 2022

References

  • Box G. E. P, Jenkins GM. 1970. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. San Francisco (CA): Holden-Day.
  • Breiman L. 2001. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45(1):5–32. doi:10.1023/A:1010933404324
  • Burzyńska M, Pikala M. 2021. Decreasing trends in road traffic mortality in Poland: a twenty-year analysis. IJERPH. 18(19):10411. doi:10.3390/ijerph181910411
  • Chen Y, Tjandra S. 2014. Daily collision prediction with SARIMAX and generalized linear models on the basis of temporal and weather variables. Transport Res Rec. 2432(1):26–36. doi:10.3141/2432-04
  • Dadashova B, Arenas-Ramires B, Mira-McWillaims J, Dixon K, Lord D. 2020. Analysis of crash injury severity on two trans-European transport network corridors in Spain using discrete-choice models and random forests. Traffic Inj Prev. 21(3):228–233. doi:10.1080/15389588.2020.1733539
  • Delavary Foroutaghe M, Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam A, Fakoor V. 2019. Time trends in gender-specific incidence rates of road traffic injuries in Iran. PLoS One. 14(5):e0216462. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0216462
  • Ihueze CC, Onwurah UO. 2018. Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: an analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria. Accid Anal Prev. 112:21–29. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2017.12.016
  • Qian Y, Zhang X, Fei G, Sun Q, Li X, Stallones L, Xiang H. 2020. Forecasting deaths of road traffic injuries in China using an artificial neural network. Traffic Inj Prev. 21(6):407–412. doi:10.1080/15389588.2020.1770238
  • Quddus MA. 2008. Time series count data models: an empirical application to traffic accidents. Accid Anal Prev. 40(5):1732–1741. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.011
  • Quddus MA. 2018. Time-series regression models for analysing transport safety data. In Safe mobility: challenges, methodology and solutions. Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing Limited. p. 279–296.
  • Rezaei S, Arab M, Karami Matin B, Akbari Sari A. 2014. Extent, consequences and economic burden of road traffic crashes in Iran. J Inj Violence Res. 6(2):57–63. doi:10.5249/jivr.v6i2.191
  • Sameen MI, Pradhan B. 2017. Severity prediction of traffic accidents with recurrent neural networks. Appl. Sci. 7(6):476. doi:10.3390/app7060476
  • United Nations (UN). 2018. Road safety strategy. [accessed 2022 May 22]. https://saferoaduse.unhcr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Road-Safety-Strategy-January-26-2018-reduced.pdf.
  • Vanlaar W, Robertson R, Marcoux K. 2014. An evaluation of Winnipeg's photo enforcement safety program: results of time series analyses and an intersection camera experiment. Accid Anal Prev. 62:238–247. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.09.023.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). 2018. Global status report on road safety 2018. [accessed 2022 May 22]. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565684.
  • Ye F, Garcia TP, Pourahmadi M, Lord D. 2012. Extension of negative binomial GARCH model: analyzing effects of gasoline price and miles traveled on fatal crashes involving intoxicated drivers in Texas. Transport Res Rec. 2279(1):31–39. doi:10.3141/2279-04
  • Zhang Y, Zou Y, Wu L, Tang J, Abid MM. 2020. Exploring the application of the linear Poisson autoregressive model for analyzing the dynamic impact of traffic laws on fatal traffic accident frequency. J. Adv. Transp. 2020:8854068. doi:10.1155/2020/8854068
  • Zhang Z, Yang W, Wushour S. 2020. Traffic accident prediction based on LSTM-GBRT model. J. Control Sci. 2020:1–10. doi:10.1155/2020/4206919
  • Zhu S. 2020. Investigation of vehicle-bicycle hit-and-run crashes. Traffic Inj Prev. 21(7):506–511. doi:10.1080/15389588.2020.1805444

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.