202
Views
11
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

The long-run and short-run effects of oil price on energy consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from structural breaks analysis

References

  • Abid, M., and M. Sebri. 2012. Energy consumption-economic growth Nexus: Does the level of aggregation matter? International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2 (2):55–62.
  • Abid, M., and R. Mraihi. 2014. Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Aggregated and disaggregated analysis. World Review of Science Technology and Sustainable Development 11 (1):43–60.
  • Abid, M., and R. Mraihi. 2015a. Disaggregate energy consumption versus economic growth in Tunisia: Cointegration and structural break analyses. Knowledge Economy 6 (4):1104–22. doi:10.1007/s13132-014-0189-4.
  • Abid, M., and R. Mraihi. 2015b. Energy consumption and industrial production: Evidence from Tunisia at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. Knowledge Economy 6 (4):1123–37. doi:10.1007/s13132-014-0190-y.
  • Abosedra, S., Baghestani, H., 1989. New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. Journal of Energy and Development 14, 285–292.
  • Ahmadi, M., M. Manera, and S. Mehdi. 2019. The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry. Resources Policy 63:101–439. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101439.
  • Akarca, A. T., and T. V. Long. 1980. On the relationship between energy and GDP: A re-examination. Journal of Energy and Development 5:326–31.
  • Alam, M. J., I. A. Begum, J. Buysse, S. Rahman, and G. V. Huylenbroeck. 2011. Dynamic modeling of causal relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in India. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15 (6):3243–51. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2011.04.029.
  • Alshehry, A. S., and M. Belloumi. 2015. Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 41:237–47. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.004.
  • Andrews, D. W. K. 1993. Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 59:817–58. doi:10.2307/2938229.
  • Andrews, D. W. K., and W. Ploberger. 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62:1383–414. doi:10.2307/2951753.
  • Apergis, N., Payne, J.E., 2009a. Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model. Energy Economics 31, 211–216 2 doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.002
  • Apergis, N., Payne, J.E., 2009b. Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Energy Economics 31, 641–647. 5 doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.01.011
  • Ayeb, H. 2011. Social and political geography of the Tunisian revolution: The alfa grass revolution. Review of African Political Economy 38 (129):467–79. doi:10.1080/03056244.2011.604250.
  • Belloumi, M. 2009. Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality Analysis. Energy Policy 37 (7):2745–53. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.027.
  • Bohi, D. R. 1991. On themacroeconomic effects of energy price shocks. Resour. Energy 13:145–62. doi:10.1016/0165-0572(91)90012-R.
  • Boufateh, T., (2019). The environmental Kuznets curve by considering asymmetric oil price shocks: evidence from the top two. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(1):706–720 doi:10.1007/s11356-018-3641-3
  • Boughzala, M., 2013. Youth employment and economic transition in Tunisia, global economy and development. Working Paper 57.
  • Boughzala, M., and M. Hamdi, 2014. Promoting inclusive growth in Arab countries: Rural and regional development and inequality in Tunisia. Working Paper 71, Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.
  • Bowden, N., and J. E. Payne. 2010. Sectoral analysis of the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real output in the US. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 5 (4):400–08. doi:10.1080/15567240802534250.
  • Brini, R., M. Amara, and H. Jemmali. 2017. Renewable energy consumption, International trade, oil price and economic growth inter-linkages: The case of Tunisia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 76:620–27. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.067.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbin J., Evans J.M., 1957. “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relations Over Time”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 37, 149–163.
  • Broecke, S., 2012. Tackling graduate unemployment through employment subsidies: An assessment of the SIVP programme in Tunisia, Working Paper Series 158, African Development Bank.
  • Burbidge, J., Harrison, A., (1984). Testing for the effects of oil-price rises using vector autoregressions. International Economic Review 25 (2), 459—484. doi:10.2307/2526209
  • Cologni, A., Manera, M., (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics. 30, 856–888. 3 doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
  • Costantini, V., Martini,C., 2010. The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data. Energy Economics 32(3),591–603.
  • Cunado J., Perez de Gracia F. (2003), Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence from some European countries, Energy Economics 25, 137-154.
  • Darby, M.R. 1982. “The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession,” American Economic Review, 72: 738–751
  • Dedeoglu, D., and H. Kaya. 2013. Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries. Energy Policy 57:469–76. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.016.
  • Dickey, D., and W. Fuller. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association 74:427–31.
  • Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg, and J. H. Stock. 1996. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica 64:813–36. doi:10.2307/2171846.
  • Engle, R. F., and C. W. J. Granger. 1987. Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55:251–76. doi:10.2307/1913236.
  • Erol, U., and E. S. H. Yu. 1987. On the causal relationship between energy and income for industrializing countries. Journal of Energy and Development 13:113–22.
  • Ftiti, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F., Chouachi, S., 2016. Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. The Journal of Applied Business Research, 32(1), 11–22.
  • Fuinhas, J. A., and A. C. Marques. 2013. Rentierism, energy and economic growth: The case of Algeria and Egypt (1965–2010). Energy Policy 62:1165–71. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.082.
  • Ghali, K. H., and M. I. T. El-Sakka. 2004. Energy use and output growth in Canada: A multivariate cointegration analysis. Energy Economics 26:225–38. doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00056-2.
  • Gherib, B. 2012. The political economy of the Tunisian revolution. Revue Tiers Monde 4:19–36. doi:10.3917/rtm.212.0019.
  • Gross, C. 2012. Explaining the (non-) causality between energy and economic growth in the U.S. A multivariate sectoral analysis. Energy Economics, 34:489–499.
  • Gisser, M., Goodwin, T.H. (1986). ‘Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1),95-103. doi:10.2307/1992323
  • Gregory, A. W., Hansen, B. E. (1996) Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126. 1 doi:10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7
  • Hamilton, J. D. 1983. “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II.” Journal of Political Economy, January, 91(2), pp. 228-48. doi:10.1086/261140
  • Hamilton, J. D. 1996 “This Is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), pp. 215-20. doi:10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2
  • Hamilton, J. D. 2003. “What Is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), pp. 363-98. doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00207-5
  • Hansen, B.E., 1992. Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with 1(1) Processes. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 10, 321-335 3 doi:10.1080/07350015.1992.10509908
  • Haouas, I., E. Sayre, and M. Yagoubi. 2012. Youth unemployment in Tunisia: Characteristics and policy responses. Top Middle East North African Econ 14:395–415.
  • Hooker, M. A., 1996. What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics 38, pp. 195-213. 2 doi:10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01281-0
  • International Energy Agency. “Tunisia Balances for 2016”. Accessed 15 April 2019. www.iea.org/statistics/.
  • International Energy Agency (IEA). World energy outlook. doi:webstore.iea.org/key-world-energy-statistics-2018.
  • Jayaraman, T.K., C-K. Choong, 2009. “Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries”, Energy Policy 37, 2182-2189. 6 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.025
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez *, R., Sánchez, M., (2005), “Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries”, Applied Economics 37, 201-228. 2 doi:10.1080/0003684042000281561
  • Johansen, s;, Mosconi, R., Bent Nielsen, B., (2000), Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend, Econometrics Journal 3: 216-249.
  • Jumbe, C. 2004. Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: Empirical evidence from Malawi. Energy Economics 26:61–68. doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00058-6.
  • Kasman, A., Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.022
  • Kilian, L., and C. Park. 2009. The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market. International Economic Review 50:1267–87. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x.
  • Kim, I., Loungani, P. (1992). “The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 29: 173-189. 2 doi:10.1016/0304-3932(92)90011-P
  • Kraft, J., and A. Kraft. 1978. On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development 193 (2):401–03.
  • Kilian, L.. 2008. A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries, Journal of the European Economic Association 6(1). 78–121.
  • Lanne, M., H. Lütkepohl, and P. Saikkonen. 2002. Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts. Journal of Time Series Analysis 23:667–85. doi:10.1111/1467-9892.00285.
  • Lanne, M., Lütkepohl, H., Maciejowska, K. (2010), Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 121-131. 2 doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2009.08.002
  • Lardic, S., Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy Policy, 34(18), pp. 3910-3915. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2005.09.019
  • Lee, C., Chiu, Y., 2011a. Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries, Energy Economics 33(2),236–248 doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.07.001
  • Lee, C., and Y. Chiu. 2011b. Oil prices, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis. Energy Policy 39 (4):2111–20. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.002.
  • Lee, C. C., and C. P. Chang. 2005. Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan. Energy Economics 27:857–72. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2005.08.003.
  • Lee, K., Ni, S.., Ratti, R., 1995. “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability”. The Energy Journal, 16:39–56. 4 doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ
  • MacKinnon, J. G. 1996. Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11:601–18. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<601::AID-JAE417>3.0.CO;2-T.
  • Mahadevan, R., Asafu-Adjaye, J., 2007. Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries, economic growth and prices: a reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries. Energy Policy 35 (4), 2481–2490 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.08.019
  • Masih, Abul M.M.., Masih, R., 1996. Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Energy Economics. 18, 165–183 3 doi:10.1016/0140-9883(96)00009-6
  • Mehrara, M. (2008). The asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and economic activities: The case of oil-exporting countries. Energy Policy, 36(3),1164–1168. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.11.004
  • Mensaha, I. A., M. Suna, C. Gaoa, A. Y. O. Sasu, D. Zhu, B. C. Ampimah, and A. Quarcooa. 2019. Analysis on the nexus of economic growth, fossil fuel energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil price in Africa based on a PMG panel ARDL approach. Journal of Cleaner Production 228 (10):161–74. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.281.
  • Mork, K.A. (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results”. Journal of Political Economy, 97:740–74 3 doi:10.1086/261625
  • Mory, J. F. 1993. “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?” The Energy Journal 14(4): 151-161. doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ
  • Mukhtarov, S., Mikayilov. J I.., Humbatova, S., Muradov, V., 2020. Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?. Sustainability 12(1 11). 4689. doi:10.3390/su12114689
  • Mukhtarov, S.; Mikayilov, J.I.; Mammadov, J.; Mammadov, E., 2018. The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Consumption: Evidence from an Oil-Rich Economy. Energies, 11, 1536 6 doi:10.3390/en11061536
  • Mukhtarov, S.; Aliyev, S.; Zeynalov, J., 2019. The Effect of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 72–80
  • National Statistics Institute. 2017. Ministry of development and international cooperation. NSI Tunisia.
  • Nouira, R., T. Hadj Amor, and C. Rault. 2019. Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 73:159–71. doi:10.1016/j.qref.2018.07.011.
  • NSI. 2017. “Measuring poverty, inequality and polarization in Tunisia 2000-2010”, National of Statistics Institute , October
  • OECD. 2017. Women’s economic empowerment in selected MENA Countries: The impact of legal frameworks in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, competitiveness and private sector development. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi:10.1787/9789264279322-en.
  • Oh, W., and K. Lee. 2004. Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP revisited: The case of Korea 1970–1999. Energy Economics 26:51–59. doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00030-6.
  • ONE. (2017). National Agency for Energy Conservation (Report). Tunis: National Energy Observatory.
  • PayPPayne, J. E., 2012. The Causal Dynamics Between US Renewable Energy Consumption, Output, Emissions, and Oil Prices, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 7 (4), 323-330. doi:10.1080/15567249.2011.595248
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and P. Perron. 1988. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75:335–46. doi:10.1093/biomet/75.2.335.
  • Rafindadi, A.A., Ozturk, I. (2017), Impacts of renewable energy consumption on the German economic growth: Evidence from combined cointegration test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 1130-1141. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.093
  • Raza, S. A., M. Shahbaz, and D. K. Nguyen. 2015. Energy conservation policies, growth and trade performance: Evidence of feedback hypothesis in Pakistan. Energy Policy 80:1–10. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.011.
  • Reboredo, J.C., (2015). Is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices? Energy Economics. 48, 32–45. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.009
  • Saikkonen, P., and H. Lutkepohl. 2002. Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time. Econometric Theory 18:313–48. doi:10.1017/S0266466602182053.
  • Sarwar, S., W. Chen, and W. Rida. 2017. Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 76:9–18. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.063.
  • Sebri, M., and M. Abid. 2012. Energy use for economic growth: A trivariate analysis from Tunisian agriculture sector. Energy Policy 48 (C):711–16. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.006.
  • Shakouri B, Yazdi SK (2017) Causality between renewable energy, energy consumption, and economic growth. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12(9):838–745 doi:10.1080/15567249.2017.1312640
  • Sims, C. A. 1972. Money, income and causality. American Economic Review 62:540–52.
  • Soytas, U., and R. Sari. 2003. Energy consumption and GDP: Causality relationship in G7 countries and emerging markets. Energy Economics 25:33–37. doi:10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00009-9.
  • Stern, D. I., and K. Enflo, 2013. Causality between energy and output in the long-run. Lund Papers in Economic History, No. 126.
  • Tang, W., Wu, L., Zhang, Z., 2010. ‘Oil Price Shocks and Their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy’, Energy Economics 32, s3–14.
  • Timilsina, G.R., 2015. Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis. Energy Economics. 49:669–675. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.005
  • Troster, V., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., 2019. A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities. Resources Policy 62, 482–495. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.10.004
  • World Development Indicators. 2018(CD-ROM). IBRD. World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • Yu, E. S. H., and B. K. Hwang. 1984. The relationship between energy and GNP: Further results. Energy Economics 6:249–72. doi:10.1016/0140-9883(84)90015-X.
  • Yu, E. S. H., and J. Y. Choi. 1985. The causal relationship between energy and GNP: An international comparison. Journal of Energy and Development 10:249–72.
  • Yuan, C., S. Liu, and J. Wu. 2010. The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China. Energy Policy 38:197–207. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.006.
  • Zivot, E., and D. Andrews. 1992. Further evidence of great crash, the oil price shock and unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10:251–70.
  • Özlale, Ü., Pekkurnaz, D., 2010. Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy 38: 4489–96 8 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.082

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.