259
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Do the time-varying effects of oil prices affect the trade balances of ASEAN-5 countries?

, &

References

  • Adam, P., U. Rianse, E. Cahyono, M. Rahim, and M. Syarif. 2015. Modelling of the dynamics of relationship between world crude oil prices and Indonesia’s trade balance: AN LVAR analysis. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 6 (4):156–19.
  • Ahad, M., and Z. Anwer. 2020. Asymmetrical relationship between oil price shocks and trade deficit: Evidence from Pakistan. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 29 (2):163–80. doi:10.1080/09638199.2019.1655782.
  • Allegret, J. P., C. Couharde, D. Coulibaly, and V. Mignon. 2014. Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development. Journal of International Money and Finance 47:185–201. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.06.002.
  • Allegret, J. P., V. Mignon, and A. Sallenave. 2015. Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies. Economic Modelling 49:232–47. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.009.
  • Anand, V., and J. Zhang. 2016. Nexus among oil prices, current account balance and GDP in Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting 7 (24):38–42.
  • Arezki, R., and F. Hasanov. 2013. Global imbalances and petrodollars. The World Economy 36 (2):213–32. doi:10.1111/twec.12008.
  • Arouri, M., A. Tiwari, and F. Teulon. 2014. Oil prices and trade balance: A frequency domain analysis for India. Economics Bulletin 34 (2):663–80.
  • Baek, J. 2021a. Crude oil prices and macroeconomic activities: A structural VAR approach to Indonesia. Applied Economics 53 (22):2527–38. doi:10.1080/00036846.2020.1862750.
  • Baek, J. (2021b). Not all oil shocks on the trade balance are alike: Empirical evidence from South Korea. Australian Economic Papers, 1–13.
  • Baek, J., and Y. J. Choi. 2020. Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea‐ASEAN commodity trade data. Australian Economic Papers 59 (3):250–78. doi:10.1111/1467-8454.12180.
  • Baek, J., M. J. Ikponmwosa, and Y. J. Choi. 2019. Crude oil prices and the balance of trade: Asymmetric evidence from selected OPEC member countries. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 28 (5):533–47. doi:10.1080/09638199.2019.1574310.
  • Baek, J., and K. D. Kwon. 2019. Asymmetric effects of oil price changes on the balance of trade: Evidence from selected African countries. The World Economy 42 (11):3235–52. doi:10.1111/twec.12844.
  • Balli, E., A. N. Çatık, and J. B. Nugent. 2021. Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model. Energy 217:119377. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119377.
  • Bao, N. (2014). Impacts of oil shocks on trade balance, Working paper, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City - School of Finance,
  • Barsky, R. B., and L. Kilian. 2004. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4):115–34. doi:10.1257/0895330042632708.
  • Basnet, H. C., and K. P. Upadhyaya. 2015. Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: Evidence from selected ASEAN countries. Applied Economics 47 (29):3078–91. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1011322.
  • Baumeister, C., and J. Hamilton. 2019. Structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification: Revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks. American Economic Review 109 (5):1873–910. doi:10.1257/aer.20151569.
  • Baumeister, C., and G. Peersman. 2013. Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the US economy. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5 (4):1–28.
  • Besel, F. 2017. Oil prices affect current account deficit: Empirical evidence From Turkey. Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics 3 (2):13–21.
  • Bildirici, M., E. Alp, and T. Bakirtas. 2010. Oil prices and current account deficits: Analysis of causality in the USA. Applied Econometrics and International Development 10 (1):137–50.
  • Bitzis, G., J. M. Paleologos, and C. Papazoglou. 2008. The determinants of the Greek current account deficit: The EMU experience. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies 1 (1):105–22.
  • Blanchard, O., & Galí, J. (2010). Labor markets and monetary policy: A new keynesian model with unemployment. American economic journal: macroeconomics 2 (2):1–30.
  • Blanchard, O., and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti. 2010. Global imbalances: In Midstream. In Reconstructing the World Economy, ed. I. SaKong and O. Blanchard. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund 83–106 .
  • Bodenstein, M., C. J. Erceg, and L. Guerrieri. 2011. Oil shocks and external adjustment. Journal of International Economics 83 (2):168–84. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.10.006.
  • Bruno, M., and J. Sachs. 1982. Energy and resource allocation: A dynamic model of the “Dutch Disease.” The Review of Economic Studies 49 (5):845–59. doi:10.2307/2297191.
  • Chuku, C. A., U. F. Akpan, N. R. Sam, and E. L. Effiong. 2011. Oil price shocks and the dynamics of current account balances in Nigeria. OPEC Energy Review 35 (2):119–39. doi:10.1111/j.1753-0237.2011.00186.x.
  • Cogley, T., and T. J. Sargent. 2005. Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (2):262–302. doi:10.1016/j.red.2004.10.009.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society 1981.
  • Eikon Datastream, R., (2021). Refinitiv. Available at: https://www.refinitiv.com/en/products/datastream-macroeconomic-analysis.
  • Furuoka, F., & Munir, Q. (2010). Does export dependency hurt economic development? Empirical evidence from Singapore. Economics Bulletin 30 (1):204–218.
  • Gavin, M. 1990. Structural adjustment to a terms of trade disturbance: The role of relative prices. Journal of International Economics 28 (3–4):217–43. doi:10.1016/0022-1996(90)90002-4.
  • Gavin, M. 1992. Income effects of adjustment to a terms of trade disturbance and the demand for adjustment finance. Journal of Development Economics 37 (1–2):127–53. doi:10.1016/0304-3878(91)90085-A.
  • Geweke, J. F. (1991). Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments (No. 148). Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.James O. Berger (Ed.), Alexander philip dawid and adrian frederick melhuish smith, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp.169–193.
  • Gnimassoun, B., M. Joëts, and T. Razafindrabe. 2017. On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada. International Economics 152:63–78. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2017.07.001.
  • Hamilton, J. D. 2008. Oil and the Macroeconomy. In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, ed. S. Durlauf and L. Blume. London: Palgrave MacMillan, pp. 1–7.
  • Herrera, A. M., & Pesavento, E. (2009). Oil price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and the “Great Moderation”. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13 (1):107–137.
  • Huntington, H. G. 2015. Crude oil trade and current account deficits. Energy Economics 50:70–79. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.030.
  • Jibril, H., K. Chaudhuri, and K. Mohaddes. 2020. Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter? Energy Policy 137:111100. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100.
  • Kilian, L. 2008. The economic effects of energy price shocks. Journal of Economic Literature 46 (4):871–909. doi:10.1257/jel.46.4.871.
  • Kilian, L. 2009. Not all oil price shocks are alike: disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review 99 (3):1053–69. doi:10.1257/aer.99.3.1053.
  • Kilian, L., A. Rebucci, and N. Spatafora. 2009. Oil shocks and external balances. Journal of International Economics 77 (2):181–94. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001.
  • Koop, G., and D. Korobilis. 2010. Bayesian multivariate time series methods for empirical macroeconomics. Hanover, USA.: Now Publishers Inc.
  • Le, T. H., and Y. Chang. 2013. Oil price shocks and trade imbalances. Energy Economics 36:78–96. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002.
  • Longe, A. E., O. O. Adelokun, and O. Omitogun. 2018. The current account and oil price fluctuations nexus in Nigeria. Journal of Competitiveness 10 (2):118–31. doi:10.7441/joc.2018.02.08.
  • Malik, S., and A. Banerjee (2012). The changing role of expectations in us monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston survey. Banque De France, Working Paper No. 376.
  • Mwabutwa, C. N., N. Viegi, and M. Bittencourt. 2016. Evolution of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Malawi: A TVP-VAR approach. Journal of Economic Development 41 (1):33. doi:10.35866/caujed.2016.41.1.003.
  • Nakajima, J. (2011). Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications. ( No. 11-E-09). Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Nasir, M. A., A. A. Al-Emadi, M. Shahbaz, and S. Hammoudeh. 2019. Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis. Resources Policy 61:166–79. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.019.
  • Nasir, M. A., L. Naidoo, M. Shahbaz, and N. Amoo. 2018. Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS. Energy Economics 76:76–88. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.09.023.
  • Ozlale, U., and D. Pekkurnaz. 2010. Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy 38 (8):4489–96. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.082.
  • Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75 (2):335–346.
  • Primiceri, G. E. 2005. Time-varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. The Review of Economic Studies 72 (3):821–52. doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x.
  • Rafiq, S., R. Salim, and H. Bloch. 2009. Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy. Resources Policy 34 (3):121–32. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2008.09.001.
  • Rafiq, S., P. Sgro, and N. Apergis. 2016. Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries. Energy Economics 56:42–50. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.019.
  • Ramey, V. A., & Vine, D. J. (2011). Oil, automobiles, and the US economy: How much have things really changed?. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 25 (1):333–368.
  • Rebucci, A., and N. Spatafora. 2006 April. Oil prices and global imbalances. IMF World Economic Outlook. Globalization and Inflation, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. 71–96.
  • Reinhart, C., and J. Ostry. 1992. Saving and terms of trade shocks: Evidence from developing countries. IMF Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund 9:495–517.
  • Sahoo, M., H. Mallick, and M. K. Mahalik. 2020. What deteriorates India’s current account balance: Crude oil imports or gold imports? Applied Economics Letters 27 (13):1107–11. doi:10.1080/13504851.2019.1673294.
  • Tran, T. N., T. T. Nguyen, V. C. Nguyen, and T. T. H. Vu. 2020. Energy consumption, economic growth and trade balance in East Asia: A panel data approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10 (4):443–49. doi:10.32479/ijeep.9401.
  • Tsen, W. H. 2009. Terms-of-Trade and trade balance: Some empirical evidence of Asian Economies. The International Trade Journal 23 (4):422–57. doi:10.1080/08853900903223685.
  • Wu, P. C., S. Y. Liu, and S. C. Pan. 2013. Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach. International Review of Economics & Finance 27:318–29. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2012.10.010.
  • Yalta, A. Y., and A. T. Yalta. 2017. Dependency on imported oil and its effects on current account. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy 12 (10):859–67. doi:10.1080/15567249.2017.1315753.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.