Likelihood of Success, the Science of War, and the False Security of a Technical Principle

References

• Amoureux, Jack L., and Brent J. Steele. 2014. “Competence and Just War.” International Relations 28 (1): 67–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117813507735.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Biddle, Stephen. 2004. Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Carnahan, Kevin. 2017. From Presumption to Prudence in Just-War Rationality. New York: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Carroll, Robert J., and Brenton Kenkel. 2019. “Prediction, Proxies, and Power.” American Journal of Political Science 63 (3): 577–593. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cavanaugh, William T. 2023. “No War Is Good: Lamenting – Not Cheerleading – The War in Ukraine.” Commonweal, May 10, 2023. https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/ukraine-war-francis-nonviolence-putin-cavanaugh.
   Google Scholar
• Charap, Samuel. 2023. “An Unwinnable War.” Foreign Affairs 102 (4).
   Google Scholar
• Charles, J. Daryl. 2023. “A Duty to Resist Geopolitical Evil.” World, August 3, 2023. https://wng.org/opinions/a-duty-to-resist-geopolitical-evil-1691062518.
   Google Scholar
• Coates, A. J. 1997. The Ethics of War. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Van Evera, Stephen. 1999. Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Fast, Nathaniel J., Niro Sivanathan, Nicole D. Mayer, and Adam D. Galinsky. 2012. “Power and Overconfident Decision-Making.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 117 (2): 249–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.11.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fotion, Nicholas. 2007. War and Ethics. London: Continuum.
   Google Scholar
• Harbour, Frances V. 2011. “Reasonable Probability of Success as a Moral Criterion in the Western Just War Tradition.” Journal of Military Ethics 10 (3): 230–241. https://doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2011.608497.
   Google Scholar
• Henschke, Adam, and Nicholas G. Evans. 2012. “Winning Well by Fighting Well.” International Journal of Applied Philosophy 26 (2): 149–163. https://doi.org/10.5840/ijap201226212.
   Google Scholar
• Heuser, Beatrice. 2017. “Defeat as Moral Victory: The Historical Experience.” In Moral Victories: The Ethics of Winning War, edited by Andrew R. Hom, Cian O’Driscoll, and Kurt Mills, 52–68. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hurka, Thomas. 2005. “Proportionality in the Morality of War.” Philosopher & Public Affairs 33 (1): 34–66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1088-4963.2005.00024.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jervis, Robert. 1988. “War and Misperception.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (4): 675–700. https://doi.org/10.2307/204820.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johnson, James T. 1993. “The Just War and the Ethic of Intervention.” The Joseph A. Reich Sr. Distinguished Lecture on War, Morality, and the Military Profession. United States Air Force Academy.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, Dominic D.P., and Dominic Tierney. 2006. Failing to Win. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, Dominic D.P., and Dominic Tierney. 2011. “The Rubicon Theory of War: How the Path to Conflict Reaches the Point of No Return.” International Security 36 (1): 7–40. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00043.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Loo, Bernard F. W. 2009. “Decisive Battle, Victory, and the Revolution in Military Affairs.” Journal of Strategic Studies 32 (2): 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390902743118.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McMahan, Jeff. 2005. “Just Cause for War.” Ethics & International Affairs 19 (3): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7093.2005.tb00551.x.
   Google Scholar
• Merkel, Reinhard. 2022. “Verhandeln Heißt Nicht Kapitulieren.” Frankfurter Allgemeine, December 28, 2022. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/gibt-es-fuer-die-ukraine-eine-pflicht-zur-verhandlung-18561825/die-annexion-der-krim-war-18561824.html.
   Google Scholar
• Mollendorf, Darrel. 2023. “‘Jus ex Bello’ and the Continued Justice of Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia.” Ethics and International Affairs, January 26, 2023. https://www.ethicsandinternationalaffairs.org/online-exclusives/jus-ex-bello-and-the-continued-justice-of-ukraines-fight-against-russia.
   Google Scholar
• Neilsen, Rhiannon. 2023. “Revising, or Rejecting, ‘Reasonable Prospect of Success’ in Just Wars? Lessons from Ukraine.” Lawfare, March 22, 2023. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/revising-or-rejecting-reasonable-prospect-success-just-wars-lessons-ukraine.
   Google Scholar
• O’Driscoll, Cian. 2020. Victory: The Triumph and Tragedy of Just War. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Patterson, Eric. 2017. “Victory and the Ending of Conflicts.” In Moral Victories: The Ethics of Winning Wars, edited by Andrew R. Hom, Cian O’Driscoll, and Kurt Mill, 103–122. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Ramsey, Paul. 2002. The Just War: Force and Political Responsibility. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
   Google Scholar
• Renz, Bettina. 2023. “Western Estimates of Russian Military Capabilities and the Invasion of Ukraine.” Problems of Post-Communism, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2023.2253359.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scheipers, Sibylle. 2017. “Carl von Clausewitz and Moral Victories.” In Moral Victories: The Ethics of Winning Wars, edited by Andrew R. Hom, Cian O’Driscoll, and Kurt Mill, 34–51. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Sharot, Tali. 2011. “The Optimism Bias.” Current Biology 21 (23): R941–R945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sharot, Tali, Christoph W. Korn, and Raymond J. Dolan. 2011. “How Unrealistic Optimism is Maintained in the Face of Reality.” Nature Neuroscience 14 (11): 1475–1479. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn.2949.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shelton, Allison M., Szymon M. Stojek, and Patricia L. Sullivan. 2013. “What Do We Know About Civil War Outcomes?” International Studies Review 15: 515–538. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12071.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sjoberg, Laura. 2006. Gender, Justice, and the Wars in Iraq: A Feminist Reformulation of Just War Theory. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
   Google Scholar
• Strawser, Bradley J., Russell Muirhead, and George W. Casey. 2015. “Assessment, Proportionality, and Justice in War.” In Assessing War: The Challenge of Measuring Success and Failure, edited by Leo J. Blanken, Hy Rothstein, and Jason J. Lepore, 255–265. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Suárez, Francisco. 1995. “A Work on the Three Theological Virtues: Faith, Hope, and Charity: Disputation XIII, On War.” In The Classics of International Law, edited by James Brown Scott. Buffalo, NY: William S. Hein & Co.
   Google Scholar
• United States Conference of Catholic Bishops. 1983. “The Challenge of Peace: God’s Promise and Our Response.” A Pastoral Letter on War and Peace by the National Conference of Catholic Bishops, May 3, 1983. https://www.usccb.org/upload/challenge-peace-gods-promise-our-response-1983.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Vitoria, Francisco. 1991. “On Civil Power.” In Political Writings, edited by Anthony Padgen, and Jeremy Lawrence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Walt, Stephen M. 2023. “The Morality of Ukraine’s War is Very Murky.” Foreign Policy, September 22, 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/ukraine-war-ethics-morality-murky/.
   Google Scholar
• Waltz, Kenneth J. 1990. “Nuclear Myths and Political Realities.” American Political Science Review 84 (3): 730-745. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962764
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walzer, Michael. 2012. “The Aftermath of War: Reflections on Jus Post Bellum.” In Ethics Beyond War’s End, edited by Eric Patterson. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
   Google Scholar