1,193
Views
43
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research papers

Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: a case study

, , &
Pages 285-295 | Received 29 Oct 2013, Accepted 18 Apr 2014, Published online: 01 Jul 2014

References

  • Aronica, G., Bates, P.D., and Horritt, M.S., 2002. Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE. Hydrological Processes, 16 (10), 2001–2016.
  • Aronica, G., Hankin, B.G., and Beven, K.J., 1998. Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data. Advances in Water Resources, 22 (4), 349–365. doi: 10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00017-7
  • Bates, P.D., et al., 2004. Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data. Hydrological Processes, 18 (17), 3347–3370. doi: 10.1002/hyp.1499
  • Beven, K.J., 2002. Towards a coherent philosophy for environmental modeling. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A, 458 (2026), 2465–2484. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2002.0986
  • Beven, K.J., 2009. Environmental modelling: an uncertain future? London: Routledge.
  • Beven, K.J., 2011. Distributed models and uncertainty in flood risk management. In: G. Pender and H. Faulkner, eds. Flood risk science and management. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell, 291–312.
  • Beven, K.J., 2012. Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes. Comptes Rendus Geoscience. doi:10.1016/j.crte.2012.01.005
  • Beven, K.J. and Alcock, R., 2011. Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision making for water management under uncertainty. Freshwater Biology, 56. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02592.x
  • Beven, K. and Young, P., 2013. A guide to good practice in modeling semantics for authors and referees. Water Resources Research, 49 (8), 5092–5098. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20393
  • Beven, K.J., Leedal, D.T., and Alcock, R., 2010. Uncertainty and good practice in hydrological prediction. Vatten, 66 (3), 159–163.
  • Beven, K., Leedal, D., and McCarthy, S., 2014. Framework for assessing uncertainty in fluvial flood risk mapping. CIRIA C721. London: Construction Industry Research and Information Association.
  • Bradbrook, K., 2006. JFLOW: a multiscale two-dimensional dynamic flood model. CIWEM Water and Environment Journal, 20 (2), 79–86. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2005.00011.x
  • Bradbrook, K.F., et al., 2004. Two dimensional diffusion wave modelling of flood inundation using a simplified channel representation. International Journal of River Basin Management, 2 (3), 211–223.
  • Brandimarte, L. and Di Baldassarre, G., 2012. Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling. Hydrology Research, 43 (6), 753–761. doi: 10.2166/nh.2011.086
  • De Moel, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H., and Koomen, E., 2011. Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st Century. Global Environmental Change, 21 (2), 620–627. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.005
  • Di Baldassarre, G., et al., 2010a. Floodplain mapping: a critical discussion on deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (3), 364–376. doi: 10.1080/02626661003683389
  • Di Baldassarre, G., et al., 2010b. Flood fatalities in Africa: from diagnosis to mitigation. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22402. doi:10.1029/2010GL045467
  • Environment Agency, 2010. Flood and coastal erosion risk management appraisal guidance (FCERM-AG) [online]. Bristol: Environment Agency. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/flood-and-coastal-defence-appraisal-of-projects [Accessed 23 May 2014].
  • Faulkner, H., et al., 2007. Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. Ambio, 16 (7), 692–703. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[692:DATDTC]2.0.CO;2
  • Hall, J.W., Manning, L.S., and Hankin, R.K.S., 2011. Bayesian calibration of a flood inundation model using spatial data. Water Resources Research, 47, W05529. doi:10.1029/2009WR008541
  • Hunter, N.M., et al., 2005. Utility of different data types for calibrating flood inundation within a GLUE framework. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9 (4), 412–430. doi: 10.5194/hess-9-412-2005
  • Institute of Hydrology. 1999. Flood estimation handbook (5 volumes). Wallingford: Institute of Hydrology.
  • Kirby, A.M., and Ash, J.R.V., 2000. Fluvial freeboard guidance note. Bristol: Environment Agency (Environment Agency R&D Technical Report W/187).
  • Lamb, R., Crossley, A., and Waller, S., 2009. A fast two-dimensional floodplain inundation model. Proceedings of the ICE Water Management, 162 (6), 363–370. doi: 10.1680/wama.2009.162.6.363
  • Leedal, D.T., et al., 2010. Visualization approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (2), 140–150. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01063.x
  • Merz, B., Thieken, A.H., and Gocht, M., 2007. Flood risk mapping at the local scale: concepts and challenges. Flood risk management in Europe: innovation in policy and practice, 13, 231–251, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.
  • Neal, J., et al., 2013. Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1349–1363. doi:10.1002/hyp.9572
  • Pappenberger, F., et al., 2005. Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations. Journal of Hydrology, 302 (1), 46–69. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.036
  • Pappenberger, F., et al., 2006. Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions. Advances in Water Resources, 29 (10), 1430–1449. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.012
  • Pappenberger, F., et al., 2007a. Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: a vulnerability weighted approach. Journal of Hydrology, 333 (2), 275–287. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.017
  • Pappenberger, F., et al., 2007b. Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11 (2), 739–752. doi: 10.5194/hess-11-739-2007
  • Penning-Rowsell, E.C., 2014. A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers. doi:10.1111/tran.12053
  • Penning-Rowsell, E., et al., 2013. Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal. Routledge, 448 pp.
  • Pitt, M., 2008. Learning lessons from the 2007 floods. London: Cabinet Office.
  • Prudhomme, C., et al., 2010. Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk. Journal of Hydrology, 390 (3), 198–209.
  • Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K.J., 2003. Bayesian estimation of flood inundation probabilities as conditioned on event inundation maps. Water Resources Research, 39 (3), W01073. doi:10.1029/2001WR001056
  • Romanowicz, R., Beven, K.J., and Tawn, J., 1996. Bayesian calibration of flood inundation models. In: M.G. Anderson, D.E. Walling, and P.D. Bates, eds. Floodplain processes. Chichester: Wiley, 333–360.
  • Rougier, J. and Beven, K.J., 2013. Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty. In: J. Rougier, S. Sparks, and L. Hill, eds. Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 40–63.
  • Tapsell, S.M., et al., 2002. Vulnerability to flooding: health and social dimensions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 360 (1796), 1511–1525. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1013
  • Wilby, R.L. and Dessai, S., 2010. Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather, 65 (7), 180–185.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.