Reliability, sensitivity, and uncertainty of reservoir performance under climate variability in basins with different hydrogeologic settings in Northwestern United States

References

• Bach, L., Nuckols, J., and Blevins, E., 2013. Summary report: environmental flows workshop for the Santiam RIver Basin, Oregon. Oregon, Portland, OR: The Nature Conservancy.
   Google Scholar
• Brekke, L.D., et al., 2009. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resources Research, 45 (4), W04411. doi: 10.1029/2008WR006941
   Google Scholar
• Buccola, N.L., et al., 2012. Simulating potential structural and operational changes for Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, Oregon, for downstream temperature management. No. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5231.
   Google Scholar
• Chang, H. and Jung, I.W., 2010. Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by climate change in a complex large river basin in Oregon. Journal of Hydrology, 388 (3), 186–207. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.040
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Conlon, T.D., et al., 2005. Groundwater hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5168, No. 2005–5168.
   Google Scholar
• Collins, W., et al., 2006. The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate, 19, 2122–2143.
   Google Scholar
• Dalton, M.M., Mote, P.W., and Snover, A.K., 2013. Climate change in the Northwest: implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities. Washington, DC: Island Press.
   Google Scholar
• Eamus, D., et al., 2015. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems: recent insights, new techniques and an ecosystem-scale threshold response. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12 (5), 4677–4754. doi: 10.5194/hessd-12-4677-2015
   Google Scholar
• Elsner, M.M. and Hamlet, A., 2010. Macro-scale hydrologic model implementation. Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (PI: Alan F. Hamlet), University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
   Google Scholar
• Gordon, C., et al., 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147–168. doi: 10.1007/s003820050010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregory, S.V., et al., 2002. Riparian vegetation. Willamette River Basin atlas. Corvallis, OR: University Press, 40.
   Google Scholar
• Hamlet, A.F., Mauger, G.S., and Lee, S.-Y., 2010a. Streamflow locations, sources of natural streamflow data, and key hydrologic products. Ch.8 in Final project report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP). Available from: http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/.
   Google Scholar
• Hamlet, A.F., Salathé, E.P., and Carrasco, P., 2010b. Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies. Ch.4 in Final project report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP). Available from: http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/.
   Google Scholar
• Hashimoto, T., 1982. Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resources Research, 18 (1), 14–20. doi: 10.1029/WR018i001p00014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Herrera, N.B., Burns, E.R., and Conlon, T.D., 2014. Simulation of groundwater flow and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the Willamette Basin and Central Willamette Subbasin, Oregon. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5136, No. 2014–5136.
   Google Scholar
• Jaeger, W.K., et al., 2013. Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural-human systems: opinion. Water Resources Research, 49 (7), 4506–4517. doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20249
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jefferson, A., et al., 2008. Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation. Hydrological Processes, 22 (22), 4371–4385. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7041
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jungclaus, J., et al., 2006. Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Journal of Climate, 19, 3952–3972.
   Google Scholar
• K-1 model developers. 2004. K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description. In: H. Hasumi and S. Emori, eds. K-1 technical report 1: center for climate system research, Tokyo: University of Tokyo, 34.
   Google Scholar
• Kay, A.L., et al., 2009. Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Climatic Change, 92, 41–63. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kløve, B., et al., 2014. Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems. Journal of Hydrology, 518, 250–266. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.037
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knutti, R., et al., 2010. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate, 23 (10), 2739–2758. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liang, X., et al., 1994. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 14415–14428. doi: 10.1029/94JD00483
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lopez, A., et al., 2009. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: a case study of water resource management in the Southwest of England. Water Resources Research, 45 (8), W08419. doi: 10.1029/2008WR007499
   Google Scholar
• Madani, K. and Lund, J.R., 2010. Estimated impacts of climate warming on California’s high-elevation hydropower. Climatic Change, 102 (3–4), 521–538. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9750-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Markstrom, S.L., et al., 2008. GSFLOW-Coupled ground-water and surface-water flow model based on the integration of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the modular ground-water flow model (MODFLOW-2005). Washington, DC: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-D1, 240 p.
   Google Scholar
• Marti, O., et al., 2005. The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Institut Poerre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l’ Environnement Global. Available from: http://dods.ipsl.jussieu.fr/omamce/IPSLCM4/ [Accessed September 2010].
   Google Scholar
• Maurer, E. and Duffy, P., 2005. Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (3), L03704. doi: 10.1029/2004GL021462
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McMahon, T.A., Adeloye, A.J., and Zhou, S.-L., 2006. Understanding performance measures of reservoirs. Journal of Hydrology, 324 (1–4), 359–382. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.030
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Milutin, D. and Bogardi, J., 1997. Evolution of release allocation patterns within a multiple-reservoir water supply system. Operation Water Management, Department of Water Resources, Wageningen Agricultre University, Netherlands. 179–186.
   Google Scholar
• Min, S., et al., 2005. Internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G. Part I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure. Tellus, 57A, 605–621. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00133.x
   Google Scholar
• Minville, M., Brissette, F., and Leconte, R., 2009. Impacts and uncertainty of climate change on water resource management of the Peribonka River system (Canada). Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136 (3), 376–385. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000041
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morris, D. and Walls, M.A., 2009. Climate change and outdoor recreation resources. Resources for the Future.
   Google Scholar
• Mote, P.W. and Salathe, E.P., 2010. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change, 102 (1), 29–50. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mote, P.W., Salathé, E., and Peacock, C., 2005. Scenarios of future climate for the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared for King County, WA by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
   Google Scholar
• NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service), 2008. Endangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation biological opinion and Magnuson-Stevens fishery conservation and management act essential fish habitat consultation. Seattle, Washington, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Log Number FINWR12000/02117, [various pagination].
   Google Scholar
• NOAA COOP (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Observer Program), 2010. Daily precipitation and maximum & minimum temperature data [online]. Available from: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop [Accessed 7 January 2010].
   Google Scholar
• Nolin, A.W., 2012. Perspectives on climate change, mountain hydrology, and water resources in the Oregon Cascades, USA. Mountain Research and Development, 32 (S1), S35–S46. doi: 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00038.S1
   Google Scholar
• Nolin, A.W. and Daly, C., 2006. Mapping ‘at risk’ snow in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7 (5), 1164–1171. doi: 10.1175/JHM543.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Northrop, P.J. and Chandler, R.E., 2014. Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate*. Journal of Climate, 27 (23), 8793–8808. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NRCS SNOTEL (Natural Resources Conversation Service Snow and Telemetry System). 2010. Map of Oregon SNOTEL sites. [online]. Available from: http://www.or.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/maps/oregon_sitemap.html [Accessed 7 January 2010].
   Google Scholar
• Obeysekera, J. and Salas, J.D., 2014. Quantifying the uncertainty of design floods under non-stationary conditions. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (7), 1438–1446. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000931
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• ODEQ (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality), 2006a. Willamette Basin TMDL: North Santiam SubBasin [online]. Available from: http://www.deq.state.or.us/wq/tmdls/docs/willamettebasin/willamette/chpt8nsantiam.pdf [Accessed 28 July 2014].
   Google Scholar
• ODEQ (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality), 2006b. Willamette Basin TMDL: South Santiam Subbasin [online]. Available from: http://www.deq.state.or.us/wq/tmdls/docs/willamettebasin/willamette/chpt9ssantiam.pdf [Accessed 28 July 2014].
   Google Scholar
• Payne, J.T., et al., 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change, 62 (1–3), 233–256. doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013694.18154.d6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Raje, D. and Mujumdar, P.P., 2010. Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change. Advances in Water Resources, 33 (3), 312–326. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.12.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ray, P.A., Vogel, R.M., and Watkins, D.W., 2010. Robust optimization using a variety of performance indices. Proceedings of World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. VA: ASCE Reston.
   Google Scholar
• Rheinheimer, D.E. and Viers, J.H., 2015. Combined effects of reservoir operations and climate warming on the flow regime of hydropower bypass reaches of California's Sierra Nevada. River Research and Applications, 31 (3), 269–279.
   Google Scholar
• Risley, J., et al., 2012. An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River Basin, Oregon. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report No. 2012–1133.
   Google Scholar
• Rosero, E., et al., 2010. Quantifying parameter sensitivity, interaction, and transferability in hydrologically enhanced versions of the Noah land surface model over transition zones during the warm season. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, DO3106. doi: 10.1029/2009JD012035
   Google Scholar
• Safeeq, M., et al., 2013. Coupling snowpack and groundwater dynamics to interpret historical streamflow trends in the western United States. Hydrological Processes, 27 (5), 655–668. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9628
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Safeeq, M., et al., 2014a. A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (9), 3693–3710. doi: 10.5194/hess-18-3693-2014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Safeeq, M., et al., 2014b. Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (6), 2501–2521. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-0198.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schaefli, B., Hingray, B., and Musy, A., 2007. Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11 (3), 1191–1205. doi: 10.5194/hess-11-1191-2007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Singh, H. and Sankarasubramanian, A., 2014. Systematic uncertainty reduction strategies for developing streamflow forecasts utilizing multiple climate models and hydrologic models. Water Resources Research, 50 (2), 1288–1307. doi: 10.1002/2013WR013855
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sullivan, A. and Rounds, S., 2004. Modeling streamflow and water temperature in the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers, Oregon, 2001–02: U.S. Geological Survey. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5001 No. 2004–5001.
   Google Scholar
• Surfleet, C.G. and Tullos, D., 2013. Uncertainty in hydrologic modelling for estimating hydrologic response due to climate change (Santiam River, Oregon). Hydrological Processes, 27 (25), 3560–3576. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9485
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tague, C. and Grant, G., 2004. A geologic framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of cascade streams, Willamette River Basin, Oregon. Water Resources Research, 40, W04303. doi: 10.1029/2003WR002629
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tague, C. and Grant, G.E., 2009. Groundwater dynamics mediate low-flow response to global warming in snow-dominated alpine regions. Water resources research, 45 (7), W07421. doi: 10.1029/2008WR007179
   Google Scholar
• Tague, C., et al., 2008. Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades. Climatic Change, 86 (1–2), 189–210. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9294-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Terray, L., Valcke, S., and Piacentini, A., 1998. Oasis 2.2 Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil. Toulouse: User's Guide and Reference Manual, Technical Report TR/CMGC/98-05, CERFACS.
   Google Scholar
• USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), 1953. Water control manual for Detroit and Big Cliff Lakes, Oregon. Portland District Report.
   Google Scholar
• USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), 1968a. Water control manual for Green Peter Lake, Oregon. Portland District Report.
   Google Scholar
• USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), 1968b. Water control manual for Foster Lake, Oregon. Portland District Report.
   Google Scholar
• USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), 2000. Biological assessment of the effects of the Willamette River Basin flood control project on species listed under the Endangered Species Act. Final. Submitted to National Marine Fisher IES Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
   Google Scholar
• USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), 2013. HEC-ResSim reservoir system simulation. Version 3.1, user’s manual [online]. Available from: http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ressim/documentation/HEC-ResSim_31_UsersManual.pdf [Accessed 1 Jun 2014].
   Google Scholar
• USGS NWIS, Geological Survey National Water Information System. 2010. USGS surface-water data for the nation. Available from: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/sw [Accessed 7 January 2010].
   Google Scholar
• Vano, J.A., et al., 2010. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. Climatic Change, 102, 287–317. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vonk, E., et al., 2014. Adapting multireservoir operation to shifting patterns of water supply and demand: a case study for the Xinanjiang-Fuchunjiang reservoir cascade. Water Resources Management, 28 (3), 625–643. doi: 10.1007/s11269-013-0499-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vrugt, J.A., et al., 2008. Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23 (7), 1011–1026. doi: 10.1007/s00477-008-0274-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Washington, W., et al., 2000. Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics, 16, 755–774. doi: 10.1007/s003820000079
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Watts, R.J., et al., 2011. Dam reoperation in an era of climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research, 62 (3), 321–327. doi: 10.1071/MF10047
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zégre, N., et al., 2010. In lieu of the paired catchment approach: hydrologic model change detection at the catchment scale. Water Resources Research, 46, W11544. doi: 10.1029/2009WR008601
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar