Uncertainty analysis of risk-based flood safety standards in the Netherlands through a scenario-based approach

References

• Apel, H., Thieken, A., Merz, B., & Blöschl, G. (2004). Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 4(2), 295–308. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asselman, N. (2005). Consequences of floods - damage to buildings and casualties (Report Q3668). WL Delft Hydraulics.
   Google Scholar
• Beckers, J., & De Bruijn, K. (2011). Slachtofferrisico's waterveiligheid. [Victim risks flood safety] (Report number 1204144-005). Deltares.
   Google Scholar
• Berger, H. (2008). Achtergrondrapport HR2006 voor de zoete wateren. [Background report hydraulic boundary conditions 2006 for Dutch fresh water bodies] (Report number 2007.026). Rijkswaterstaat.
   Google Scholar
• Bockarjova, M., Rietveld, P., & Verhoef, E. (2009). First results immaterial damage valuation: Value of statistical life (VOSL), value of evacuation (VOE) and value of injury (VOI) in flood risk context, a stated preference study (III). Department of Spatial Economics.
   Google Scholar
• Bockarjova, M., Rietveld, P., & Verhoef, E. (2012). Composite valuation of immaterial damage in flooding: Value of statistical life, value of statistical evacuation and value of statistical injury. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 47(3).
   Google Scholar
• Brussee, A. R., Bricker, J. D., De Bruijn, K. M., Verhoeven, G. F., Winsemius, H. C., & Jonkman, S. N. (2021). Impact of hydraulic model resolution and loss of life model modification on flood fatality risk estimation: Case study of the Bommelerwaard, The Netherlands. Journal of Flood Risk Management.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Campolongo, F., Saltelli, A., & Cariboni, J. (2011). From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis. A unified approach. Computer Physics Communications, 182(4), 978–988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2010.12.039
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• CBS & Kadaster. (2019). Wijk-en buurtkaart 2008 [Neighbourhood map 2008]. Retrieved June 4, 2019, from https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/dossier/nederland-regionaal/geografische%20data/wijk-en-buurtkaart-2008
   Google Scholar
• De Bruijn, K., & Van der Doef, M. (2011). Gevolgen van overstromingen - informatie ten behoeve van het project waterveiligheid in de 21e eeuw. [Flood consequences: Information for the flood safety 21st century study]. (Report number 1204144-004). Deltares.
   Google Scholar
• De Moel, H., Asselman, N., & Aerts, J. (2012). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(4), 1045–1058. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1045-2012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Moel, H., Bouwer, L., & Aerts, J. (2014). Uncertainty and sensitivity of flood risk calculations for a dike ring in the south of the Netherlands. Science of the Total Environment, 473-474(1), 224–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.015
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Defra - Environment Agency. (2006). Flood risks to people - phase 2, the flood risks to people methodology. UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).
   Google Scholar
• De Grave, P., & Baarse, G. (2011). Kosten van maatregelen: Informatie ten behoeve van het project waterveiligheid 21e eeuw (Deltares, Report number 1204144-003). Deltares.
   Google Scholar
• Diermanse, F. (2004). HR2006 - herberekening werklijn Rijn. [Hydraulic boundary conditions 2006 - recalculation for the river Rhine] (Report Q3623-1). WL Delft Hydraulics.
   Google Scholar
• Domeneghetti, A., Vorogushyn, S., Castellarin, A., Merz, B., & Brath, A. (2013). Probabillistic flood hazard mapping: Effects of uncertain boundary conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3127–3140. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dufty, N., Dyer, A., & Golnaraghi, M. (2020). Flood risk management in Australia - building flood resilience in a changing climate. The Geneva Association.
   Google Scholar
• Egorova, R., Van Noortwijk, J., & Holterman, S. (2008). Uncertainty in flood damage estimation. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 139–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635343
   Google Scholar
• ENW. (2017). Fundamentals of flood protection. Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment - Expertise Network for Flood Protection.
   Google Scholar
• EUCOLD. (2018). European and US Levees and flood defences: Characteristics, risks and governance. Comité Francois des barages et réservoirs.
   Google Scholar
• European Parliament. (2007). Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/en/index.html.
   Google Scholar
• Gauderis, J., & Kind, J. (2011). Maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse waterveiligheid 21e eeuw, Bijlage D: Bewerking van schadegegevens. [Societal cost-beneft analysis flood safety 21st century, annex D: Processing of damage data] (Report number 1204144-006). Deltares.
   Google Scholar
• Gauderis, J., Kind, J., & Van Duinen, R. (2011). Maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse waterveiligheid 21e eeuw, Bijlage G: Monte Carlo-analyse. [Societal cost-benefit analysis flood safety 21st century, annex G: Monte carlo analysis] (Report number 1204144-006). Deltares. (in Dutch).
   Google Scholar
• Hazeu, G. (2005). Landelijk grondgebruiksbestand Nederland (LGN5); Vervaardiging, nauwkeurigheid en gebruik. [Nationwide land-use data of the Netherlands: data collection, accuracy and usage] (Alterra-rapport 1213), Wageningen.
   Google Scholar
• Hesselink, A., Stelling, G., Kwadijk, J., & Middelkoop, H. (2003). Inundation of a Dutch river polder, sensitivity analysis of a physically based inundation model using historic data. Water Resources Research, 39(9), Article 1234. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001334
   Google Scholar
• Huizinga, H., Dijkman, M., Barendregt, A., & Waterman, R. (2004). HIS-Schade en Slachtoffer Module Versie 2.1 User Manual. Geodan IT & HKV.
   Google Scholar
• Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Apel, H., Barredo, J. I., Bates, P. D., Feyen, L., Gericke, A., Neal, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2012). Comparative flood damage model assessment: Towards a European approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(12), 3733–3752. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jonkman, S. (2007). Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. PhD thesis, TU Delft.
   Google Scholar
• Jorissen, R., Kraaij, E., & Tromp, E. (2016, October 17–21). Dutch flood protection policy and measures based on risk assessment. FLOODrisk 2016 - 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, Lyon, France.
   Google Scholar
• Kjeldsen, T. (2015). How reliable are design flood estimates in the UK? Journal of Flood Risk Management, 8(3), 237–246. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12090
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kok, M., Huizinga, H., Vrouwenvelder, A., & Barendregt, A. (2005). Standaardmethode 2004 Schade en Slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen. [Standard method 2004 for damage and victims calculation caused by floods] (Report number DWW-2005-005). Rijkswaterstaat.
   Google Scholar
• Kolen, B. (2013). Certainty of uncertainty in evacuation for threat driven response. PhD thesis, Radboud University Nijmegen.
   Google Scholar
• Maaskant, B., Kolen, B., Jongejan, R., & Kok, M. (2009). Fractions of preventive evacuation in case of flooding in the Netherlands. HKV.
   Google Scholar
• Merz, B., & Thieken, A. (2009). Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds. Natural Hazards, 51(3), 437–458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9452-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mevissen, S. (2010). Acute evacuation; a conceptual strategy to increase mass-evacuation during floods. The Netherlands Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics.
   Google Scholar
• Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat,. (2007). Hydraulische randvoorwaarden primaire waterkeringen voor de derde toetsronde 2006-2011 (HR 2006) [Hydraulic boundary conditions primary flood defences for the third test round 2006-2011].
   Google Scholar
• NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources. (2005). Floodplain development manual - the management of flood liable land. New South Wales Government.
   Google Scholar
• Otto, A., Hornberg, A., & Thieken, A. (2018). Local controversies of flood risk reduction measures in Germany. An explorative overview and recent insights. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11, S382–S394. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12227
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• PDOK, Kadaster. (2004). Dataset: Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland 1 [Altitude dataset the Netherlands]. Retrieved May, 2019, from https://www.pdok.nl/introductie/-/article/actueel-hoogtebestand-nederland-ahn1-
   Google Scholar
• Saint-Geours, N., Grelot, F., Bailly, J., & Lavergne, C. (2015). Ranking sources of uncertainty in flood damage modelling: A case study on the cost-benefit analysis of a flood mitigation project in the Orb delta, France. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 8(2), 161–176. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12068
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Slootjes, N., & Van der Most, H. (2016). Achtergronden bij de normering van de primaire waterkeringen in Nederland. [Background for the safety standards of the Dutch primary flood defences] Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, report.
   Google Scholar
• Slootjes, N., & Wagenaar, D. (2016). Factsheets normering primaire waterkeringen. [Factsheets safety standards for the rimary flood defences]. Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, report.
   Google Scholar
• Thieken, A., Apel, H., & Merz, B. (2015). Assessing the probability of large-scale flood loss events: A case study for the River Rhine, Germany. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 8(3), 247–262. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12091
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• TNO. (2019). Ondergrondgegevens Dinoloket [Dubsoil data Dinloket]. Retrieved July 14, 2019, from https://www.dinoloket.nl/ondergrondgegevens.
   Google Scholar
• Van der Sluijs, J., Janssen, P., Petersen, A., Kloprogge, P., Risbev, J., Tuinstra, W., & Ravetz, J. (2004). RIVM/MNP Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication: Tool catalogue for uncertainty assessment (Utrecht, Report no. NWS-E-2004-37). Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation.
   Google Scholar
• Vergouwe, R., Huting, R., & Van der Scheer, P. (2014). Veiligheid Nederland in kaart 2: Overstromingsrisico dijkring 43 Betuwe, Tieler- en Culemborgerwaarden (Report number HB 2311021). Rijkswaterstaat WVL Projectbureau VNK2.
   Google Scholar
• Verheij, H. (2003). Aanpassen van het bresgroeimodel in HIS-OM [Adaptation of the breach growth model in HIS-OM] (Report number Q3299). WL Delft Hydraulics.
   Google Scholar
• VNK2 Project Office. (2012). Flood risks in the Netherlands VNK2: The method in brief; technical background. VNK2 Project Office.
   Google Scholar
• Wagenaar, D., De Bruijn, K., Bouwer, L., & De Moel, H. (2016). Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1-2016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Warmink, J., Janssen, A., Booij, M., & Krol, M. (2010). Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 25(12), 1518–1527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waterschap Rivierenland. (2014). Dijkverbetering Gorinchem-Waardenburg, GoWa tekeningenbundel oude bestekken. [Dike reinforcement Gorinchem-Waardenburg, GoWa old design drawings].
   Google Scholar
• Zhu, Y. (2006). Breach growth in clay dikes. PhD thesis, Delft University of Technology, Delft.
   Google Scholar