287
Views
5
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Evaluation of change factor-based statistical downscaling methods for impact analysis in urban hydrology

, , & ORCID Icon
Pages 785-794 | Received 16 Jul 2019, Accepted 22 Sep 2020, Published online: 05 Oct 2020

References

  • Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., P. Willems, J. Olsson, S. Beecham, A. Pathirana, I. Bülow Gregersen, H. Madsen, and -V.-T.-V. Nguyen. 2013. “Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems: A Review.” Water Science and Technology 68 (1): 16–28. doi:10.2166/wst.2013.251.
  • Berggren, K., J. Packman, R. Ashley, and M. Viklander. 2014. “Climate Changed Rainfalls for Urban Drainage Capacity Assessment.” Urban Water Journal 11 (7): 543–556. doi:10.1080/1573062X.2013.851709.
  • Bi, G., E. P. Gachon, M. Vrac, and F. Monette. 2017. “Which Downscaled Rainfall Data for Climate Change Impact Studies in Urban Areas? Review of Current Approaches and Trends.” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 127 (3–4): 685–699. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1656-y.
  • Bürger, G., T. Q. Murdock, A. T. Werner, S. R. Sobie, and A. J. Cannon. 2012. “Downscaling Extremes—An Intercomparison of Multiple Statistical Methods for Present Climate.” Journal of Climate 25 (12): 4366–4388. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00408.1.
  • European Environment Agency. 2012. “Challenges and Opportunities for Cities Together with Supportive National and European Policies.” 1–148.
  • Grotch, S. L., and M. C. MacCracken. 1991. “The Use of General Circulation Models to Predict Regional Climatic Change.” Journal of Climate 4 (3): 286–303. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0286:TUOGCM>2.0.CO;2.
  • Gutmann, E., T. Pruitt, M. P. Clark, L. Brekke, J. R. Arnold, D. A. Raff, and R. M. Rasmussen. 2014. “An Intercomparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods Used for Water Resource Assessments in the United States.” Water Resources Research 50 (9): 7167–7186. doi:10.1002/2014WR015559.
  • Haberlandt, U., A. Belli, and A. Bárdossy. 2015. “Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation Using a Stochastic Rainfall Model Conditioned on Circulation Patterns - an Evaluation of Assumptions.” International Journal of Climatology 35 (3): 417–432. doi:10.1002/joc.3989.
  • Halsnaes, K., and P. Skougaard Kaspersen. 2018. “Decomposing the Cascade of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments for Urban Flooding Reflecting Critical Decision-making Issues.” Climatic Change 151 (3–4): 491–506.
  • Hamdi, R., A. Deckmyn, P. Termonia, G. R. Demarée, P. Baguis, S. Vanhuysse, and E. Wolff. 2009. “Effects of Historical Urbanization in the Brussels Capital Region on Surface Air Temperature Time Series: A Model Study.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48 (10): 2181–2196.
  • Hertig, E., D. Maraun, J. Bartholy, R. Pongracz, M. Vrac, I. Mares, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. Wibig, A. Casanueva, and P. M. M. Soares. 2018. “Comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods with respect to Extreme Events over Europe: Validation Results from the Perfect Predictor Experiment of the COST Action VALUE.” International Journal of Climatology 39 (9): 3846–3867. doi:10.1002/joc.5469.
  • Hettiarachchi, S., C. Wasko, and A. Sharma. 2017. “Increase in Urban Flood Risk Resulting from Climate Change – The Role of Storm Temporal Patterns.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 22: 2041–2056. doi:10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018, 2018.
  • Hewitson, B. C., J. Daron, R. G. Crane, M. F. Zermoglio, and C. Jack. 2014. “Interrogating Empirical-statistical Downscaling.” Climatic Change 122 (4): 539–554. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1021-z.
  • Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., H. Tabari, and P. Willems. 2018. “Precipitation Intensity–duration–frequency Curves for Central Belgium with an Ensemble of EURO-CORDEX Simulations, and Associated Uncertainties.” Atmospheric Research 200: 1–12. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.015.
  • Karl, T. R., W.-C. Wang, M. E. Schlesinger, R. W. Knight, and D. Portman. 1990. “A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part I: Seasonal Statistics.” Journal of Climate 3 (10): 1053–1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1053:AMORGC>2.0.CO;2.
  • Kim, J.-W., J.-T. Chang, N. L. Baker, D. S. Wilks, and W. L. Gates. 1984. “The Statistical Problem of Climate Inversion: Determination of the Relationship between Local and Large- Scale Climate.” Monthly Weather Review 112 (10): 2069–2077. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2069:TSPOCI>2.0.CO;2.
  • Klein, W. H. 1948. “Winter Precipitation from the 700-millibar Circulation.” Journal of Meteorology 9: 439–453.
  • Klein, W. H., B. M. Lewis, and I. Enger. 1959. “Objective Prediction of Five-day Mean Temper Atures during Winter.” Journal of Meteorology 16 (6): 672–682. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1959)016<0672:OPOFDM>2.0.CO;2.
  • Maraun, D. 2013. “When Will Trends in European Mean and Heavy Daily Precipitation Emerge?” Environmental Research Letters 8 (1): 014004. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004.
  • Maraun, D., F. Wetterhall, R. E. Chandler, E. J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H. W. Rust, et al. 2010. “Precipitation Downscaling under Climate Change: Recent Developments to Bridge the Gap between Dynamical Models and the End User.” Reviews of Geophysics 48 (2009RG000314): 1–38.
  • Maraun, D., and M. Widmann. 2018. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781107588783.
  • Maraun, D., M. Widmann, and J. M. Gutiérrez. 2018. “Statistical Downscaling Skill under Present Climate Conditions: A Synthesis of the VALUE Perfect Predictor Experiment.” International Journal of Climatology 39 (9): 3692–3703.
  • Maraun, D., M. Widmann, J. M. Gutiérrez, S. Kotlarski, R. E. Chandler, E. Hertig, J. Wibig, R. Huth, and R. A. I. Wilcke. 2014. “Earth ’ s Future VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies Earth ’ s Future.” Earth’s Future 3 (1): 1–14.
  • Moore, T. L., J. S. Gulliver, L. Stack, and M. H. Simpson. 2016. “Stormwater Management and Climate Change: Vulnerability and Capacity for Adaptation in Urban and Suburban Contexts.” Climatic Change 138 (3–4): 491–504.
  • Ntegeka, V., P. Baguis, E. Roulin, and P. Willems. 2014. “Developing Tailored Climate Change Scenarios for Hydrological Impact Assessments.” Journal of Hydrology 508: 307–321. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.001.
  • Ntegeka, V., and P. Willems. 2008. “Trends and Multidecadal Oscillations in Rainfall Extremes, Based on a More than 100-year Time Series of 10 Min Rainfall Intensities at Uccle, Belgium.” Water Resources Research 44 (7): 1–15. doi:10.1029/2007WR006471.
  • Ochoa-Rodriguez, S., L. P. Wang, A. Gires, R. D. Pina, R. Reinoso-Rondinel, G. Bruni, A. Ichiba, et al. 2015. “Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Rainfall Inputs on Urban Hydrodynamic Modelling Outputs: A Multi-catchment Investigation”. Journal of Hydrology 531: 389–407. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.035.
  • Olsson, J., K. Berggren, M. Olofsson, and M. Viklander. 2009. “Applying Climate Model Precipitation Scenarios for Urban Hydrological Assessment: A Case Study in Kalmar City, Sweden.” Atmospheric Research 92 (3): 364–375. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.015.
  • Roberts, D. R., W. H. Wood, and S. J. Marshall. 2019. “Assessments of Downscaled Climate Data with a High-resolution Weather Station Network Reveal Consistent but Predictable Bias.” International Journal of Climatology 39 (6): 3091–3103. doi:10.1002/joc.6005.
  • Rössler, O., A. M. Fischer, H. Huebener, D. Maraun, R. E. Benestad, P. Christodoulides, P. M. M. Soares, et al. 2017. “Challenges to Link Climate Change Data Provision and User Needs - Perspective from the COST-action VALUE.” International Journal of Climatology 39 (9): 3704–3716. doi:10.1002/joc.5060.
  • Skougaard Kaspersen, P., N. Høegh Ravn, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, H. Madsen, and M. Drews. 2017. “Comparison of the Impacts of Urban Development and Climate Change on Exposing European Cities to Pluvial Flooding.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (8): 4131–4147. doi:10.5194/hess-21-4131-2017.
  • Smid, M., and A. C. Costa. 2017. “Climate Projections and Downscaling Techniques: A Discussion for Impact Studies in Urban Systems.” International Journal of Urban Sciences 22 (3): 277–307. doi:10.1080/12265934.2017.1409132.
  • Sørup, H. J. D., S. Georgiadis, I. B. Gregersen, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen. 2017. “Formulating and Testing a Method for Perturbing Precipitation Time Series to Reflect Anticipated Climatic Changes.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (1): 345–355. doi:10.5194/hess-21-345-2017.
  • Sunyer, M. A., Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, et al. 2015. “Inter-comparison of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Projection of Extreme Precipitation in Europe.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19 (4): 1827–1847. doi:10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015.
  • Tabari, H., M. T. Taye, and P. Willems. 2015. “Water Availability Change in Central Belgium for the Late 21st Century.” Global and Planetary Change 131: 115–123. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.05.012.
  • Tabari, H., R. De Troch, O. Giot, R. Hamdi, P. Termonia, S. Saeed, E. Brisson, N. Van Lipzig, and P. Willems. 2016. “Local Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes: Are High-resolution Climate Models Needed for Realistic Simulations?” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (9): 3843–3857. doi:10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016.
  • Tavakol-Davani, H., E. Goharian, C. H. Hansen, H. Tavakol-Davani, D. Apul, and S. J. Burian. 2016. “How Does Climate Change Affect Combined Sewer Overflow in a System Benefiting from Rainwater Harvesting Systems?” Sustainable Cities and Society 27: 430–438. doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.07.003.
  • Thorndahl, S., A. Korup Andersen, and A. B. Larsen. 2017. “Event-based Stochastic Point Rainfall Resampling for Statistical Replication and Climate Projection of Historical Rainfall Series.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 (9): 4433–4448. doi:10.5194/hess-21-4433-2017.
  • Van Uytven, E., J. De Niel, and P. Willems. 2020. “Uncovering the Shortcomings of a Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling Method.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 24: 2671–2686. doi:10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020.
  • Van Uytven, E., and P. Willems. 2018. “Greenhouse Gas Scenario Sensitivity and Uncertainties in Precipitation Projections for Central Belgium.” Journal of Hydrology 558: 9–19. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.018.
  • von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and U. Cubasch. 1993. “Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.” Journal of Climate 6 (6): 1161–1171. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1161:DOGCCE>2.0.CO;2.
  • Werner, A. T., and A. J. Cannon. 2016. “Hydrologic Extremes – An Intercomparison of Multiple Gridded Statistical Downscaling Methods.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (4): 1483–1508. doi:10.5194/hess-20-1483-2016.
  • Wigley, T. M. L., P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, and G. Smith. 1990. “Obtaining Sub-grid-scale Information from Coarse-resolution General Circulation Model Output.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 95 (D2): 1943–1953. doi:10.1029/JD095iD02p01943.
  • Willems, P. 2000. “Compound Intensity/duration/frequency-relationships of Extreme Precipitation for Two Seasons and Two Storm Types.” Journal of Hydrology 233 (1–4): 189–205. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00233-X.
  • Willems, P. 2013a. “Multidecadal Oscillatory Behaviour of Rainfall Extremes in Europe.” Climatic Change 120 (4): 931–944. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0837-x.
  • Willems, P. 2013b. “Revision of Urban Drainage Design Rules after Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Extremes at Uccle, Belgium.” Journal of Hydrology 496: 166–177. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.037.
  • Willems, P., and M. Vrac. 2011. “Statistical Precipitation Downscaling for Small-scale Hydrological Impact Investigations of Climate Change.” Journal of Hydrology 402 (3–4): 193–205. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030.
  • Wolfs, V., and P. Willems. 2017. “Modular Conceptual Modelling Approach and Software for Sewer Hydraulic Computations.” Water Resources Management 31 (1): 283–298. doi:10.1007/s11269-016-1524-2.
  • Yang, Y., J. Tang, Z. Xiong, S. Wang, and J. Yuan. 2019. “An Intercomparison of Multiple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Daily Precipitation and Temperature over China: Present Climate Evaluations.” Climate Dynamics 53 (7–8): 4629–4649. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04809-x.
  • Zahmatkesh, Z., S. Burian, M. Karamouz, H. Tavakol-Davani, and E. Goharian. 2015. “Low- Impact Development Practices to Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Urban Stormwater Runoff: Case Study of New York City.” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 141 (1): 04014043. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000770.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.