References
- Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M.,co-authors. 2008. Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 1337–1351.
- Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M. 2015. The forecast skill horizon. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc 141, 3366–3382.
- Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M. and Isaksen, L. 2008. Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 2051–2066.
- Dalcher, A. and Kalnay, E. 1987. Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts. Tellus 39A, 474–491.
- Durran, D. R. and Gingrich, M. 2014. Atmospheric predictability: why butterflies are not of practical importance. J. Atmos. Sci. 71, 2476–2488.
- Durran, D. R., Reinecke, P. A. and Doyle, J. D. 2013. Large-scale errors and mesoscale predictability in Pacific Northwest snowstorms. J. Atmos. Sci. 70, 1470–1487.
- Hayashi, J. 1981. Space-time spectral analysis and its applications to atmospheric waves. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 60, 156–171.
- Isaksen, L., Bonavita, M., Buizza, R., Fisher, M., Haseler, J., co-authors 2010. Ensemble of data assimilations at ECMWF. ECMWF Technical Memorandum No. 636. (Available from ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2-9AX, UK). Online at: http://old.ecmwf.int/publications.
- Jung, T. and Leutbecher, M. 2008. Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc 134, 973–984.
- Kalnay, E. 2003. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability Cambridge University Press, 341 p.
- Kleeman, R. 2008. Limits, variability, and general behaviour of statistical predictability of the midlatitude atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 263–275.
- Lorenz, E. 1969. The predictability of a flow which possess many scales of motion. Tellus XXI, 289–307.
- Lorenz, E. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34, 505–513.
- Mapes, B., Tulich, S., Nasuno, T. and Satoh, M. 2008. Predictability aspects of global aqua-planet simulations with explicit convection. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 86A, 175–185.
- Magnusson, L. and Källén, E. 2013. Factors influencing skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 141, 3142–3153.
- Matsuno, T. 1966. Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 44, 25–42.
- Park, Y.-Y., Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M. 2008. TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc 134, 2029–2050.
- Rotunno, R. and Snyder, C. 2008. A generalization of Lorenz’s model for the predictability of flows with many scales of motion. J. Atmos. Sci. 65, 1063–1076.
- Reynolds, C. A., Webster, P. J. and Kalnay, E. 1994. Random error growth in NMC’s global forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 1281–1305.
- Satterfield, E. and Szunyogh, I. 2011. Assessing the performance of an ensemble forecast system in predicting the magnitude and the spectrum of analysis and forecast uncertainties. Mon. Wea. Rev. 139, 1207–1223.
- Shukla, J. 1981. Dynamical predictability of monthly means. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 2547–2572.
- Tribbia, J. and Baumhefner, D. P. 2004. Scale interactions and atmospheric predictability: an updated perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 703–713.
- Vitart, F., Buizza, R., Alonso Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bidlot, J.-R., co-authors. 2008. The new VAREPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc 134, 1789–1799.
- Vitart, F. and Molteni, F. 2010. Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc 136, 842–855.
- Žagar, N., Andersson, E. and Fisher, M. 2005. Balanced tropical data assimilation based on a study of equatorial waves in ECMWF short-range forecast errors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 987–1011.
- Žagar, N., Andersson, E., Fisher, M. and Untch, A. 2007. Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the ECMWF model short-range forecast errors in the tropical stratosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1843–1853.
- Žagar, N., Blaauw, M., Jesenko, B. and Magnusson, L. 2016. Diagnosing model performance in the tropics. ECMWF Newsletter 147, 26–33.
- Žagar, N., Buizza, R. and Tribbia, J. 2015. A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci. 72, 4423–4444.
- Žagar, N., Isaksen, L., Tan, D. and Tribbia, J. 2013. Balance and flow-dependency of background-error variances in the ECMWF 4D-Var ensemble. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139, 1229–1238.