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Original Articles

The Failure of Indian Intelligence in the Sino-Indian Conflict

Pages 1-27 | Published online: 05 Oct 2012

References

  • 2004 . Intelligence Failures in the USA, UK and Russia: Lessons for India New Delhi : Observer Research Foundation . An October 2004 workshop report described the 1962 war as India's “greatest failure in intelligence.” The workshop was attended by several very senior Indian Intelligence officials and the usage of such an expression cannot be dismissed as uninformed criticism. R. Swaminathan
  • 1984 . The Indian Express—Archives Boulder , Colorado : Westview . This argument has been advanced by K. Subrahmanyam, a former chairman of the Indian Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), and by Yaacov Vertzberger, an Israeli scholar. [Online]. 5 August 2004. URL: http://www.indianexpress.com/oldstory.php?storyid=5239 [25 November 2008]. Also see Yaacov Y.I Vertzberger, Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking: The Sino-Indian Conflict, 1959–1962 196. However, in light of new literature on the Sino-Indian War, Subrahmanyam has since revised his argument and today holds that the IB failed in both, intelligence collection and analysis. His modified views thus tally with those of this paper. K. Subrahmanyam, Interview, 7 September 2008, New Delhi, India
  • 1972 . Asian Survey Critics of the Intelligence Bureau have alleged that the agency only provided its consumers with disjointed bits of raw information. These were delivered in an unassessed form, more or less as randomly as they were received by the agency itself. Steven A. Hoffmann, “Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory: India 1962–71” 12 (November: 970
  • 6 September 2008 . Former IB officer IB-2, Interview, 25 July 2008, London, UK. Former IB agent IB-A, Interview, 28 August 2008, New Delhi, India. A former Director of Military Intelligence who was closely involved in decision-making during the Sino-Indian War told this researcher that the primary failure was one of policy. The government of Prime Minister Nehru was too focused on befriending China and refused to countenance the idea that its policy would prove counter-productive. Former DMI, Interview, New Delhi, India
  • 7 September 2008 . Indian Defence Yearbook 2000 Dehra Dun : Natraj Publishers . The biggest military defeat ever suffered by independent India was the routing of its crack 4th Infantry Division by Chinese troops at Sela (in the North East Frontier Agency) on 18 November 1962. However, this setback occurred due to a failure of nerve on the part of local army commanders and not due to a failure of intelligence. Subrahmanyam, Interview, Also, R.K Jasbir Singh, ed., (2000, 111
  • NEFA was later named the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh
  • 1970 . India's China War Harmondsworth, Middlesex : Penguin . For an objective account of the history of the Sino-Indian border prior to 1950, see Neville Maxwell, 3–54. Maxwell gives China altogether too much benefit of the doubt when interpreting its behaviour towards India after 1950. For this reason, the scholarly value of his book is somewhat limited
  • 11 October 2008 . Former IB officer IB-R, Interview, Chennai, India
  • 1 August 2008 . Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPRD)—Intelligence Bureau [Online]. URL: http://www.bprd.gov.in/writereaddata/linkimages/104301563730.pdf [30 August 2008]
  • Knightley , Phillip . 2003 . The Second Oldest Profession: Spies and Spying in the Twentieth Century 85 – 86 . London : Pimlico .
  • 30 August 2008 . Bharat Rakshak—Bharat-Rakshak Monitor [Online]. 15 June 2008. URL: http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE4-5/samis.html []. Kashmir Sentinel—Year 2003 [Online]. 30 June 2008. URL: http://www.panunkashmir.org/kashmirsentinel/jan2003/20.html [30 August 2008]
  • 1991 . War in the High Himalaya: The Indian Army in Crisis, 1962 London : Lancer International . D.K Palit 101–102
  • 2007 . India, Pakistan and the Secret Jihad: The Covert War in Kashmir, 1947–2002 Abingdon, Oxon : Routledge . At the time India obtained independence from Britain, the IB was described by one observer as being in ‘a tragic-comic state of helplessness’. Quoted in Praveen Swami, 25
  • 2005 . Shedding Shibboleths: India's Evolving Strategic Outlook Delhi : Wordsmiths . K. Subrahmanyam has observed that the IB was woefully under-resourced for the task of foreign intelligence. K. Subrahmanyam and Arthur Monteiro, 73
  • 1971 . My Years With Nehru: The Chinese Betrayal New Delhi : Allied Publishers . B.N Mullik 122
  • 1979 . The Unfought War of 1962: The NEFA Debacle New Delhi : Allied Publishers . J.R Saigal 161–66
  • 1989 . Nehru: The Making of India London : Penguin . M.J Akbar 541–42
  • Arpi , Claude . 2004 . Born in Sin: The Panchsheel Agreement 101 New Delhi : Mittal Publications .
  • 1964 . The Battle of NEFA: The Undeclared War New Delhi : Allied Publishers . G. S Bhargava 28
  • Mehra , Parshotam . 2007 . Essays in Frontier History: India, China and the Border Dispute 171 New Delhi : Oxford University Press .
  • Liu , Xuecheng . 1994 . The Sino-Indian Border Dispute and Sino-Indian Relations 93 London : University Press of America .
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 153 – 56 .
  • 2003 . Spies in the Himalayas: Secret Missions and Perilous Climbs New Delhi : HarperCollins . The then Director Intelligence Bureau was virtually the only member of Nehru's inner circle who was inherently suspicious of China. M.S Kohli and Kenneth Conboy, 10–11
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 196 – 99 .
  • 1963 . China Invades India: The Story of Invasion Against the Background of Chinese History and Sino-Indian Relations New Delhi : Allied Publishers . Neutralizing Indian espionage was quite easy for the Chinese authorities in Tibet since India was the only country to have a diplomatic presence in the region. B.K Desai, “Sino-Indian Relations,” in, ed. V.B Karnik 127
  • 1961 . India-China Relations Calcutta : Firma KL Mukhopadyay Publishers . P.C Chakravarti 108
  • Arpi . Born in Sin 128
  • Chakravarti . India-China Relations 56 and 60
  • 27 August 2008 . Former IB officer IB-3, Interview, Bangalore, India
  • Khanduri , Chandra B. 2006 . Thimayya: An Amazing Life 210 – 211 . New Delhi : Knowledge World .
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 135 – 36 .
  • Khanduri . Thimayya 209
  • Wignall , Sydney . 2002 . Spy on the Roof of the World 9 – 10 . New Delhi : Penguin .
  • Khullar , Darshan . 1999 . When Generals Failed: The Chinese Invasion 30 New Delhi : Manas .
  • 15 June 2008 . Bharat Rakshak—Official 1962 War History [Online]. URL: http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/LAND-FORCES/Army/History/1962War/PDF/1962Chapter02.pdf [30 August 2008]
  • 2008 . Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone that Gathered Moss New Delhi : Manas . K. Shankaran Nair 94–95
  • 2007 . Political Violence and the Police in India New Delhi : Sage . K.S Subramanian 84–86
  • Wignall . Spy on the Roof of the World 21
  • Patel , Indu . 1963 . “The Border Problem,” in ” . In China Invades India: The Story of Invasion Against the Background of Chinese History and Sino-Indian Relations New Delhi : Allied Publishers . V.B Karnik 188
  • Sharma , Anita and Chakrabarti , Shreemati , eds. 2007 . Taiwan Today New Delhi : Anthem Press . The phrase was later adopted and popularized by Nehru, but originated from Beijing. Zannou Andre Corneille, “The Taiwan Factor in Sino-Indian Relations,” in, eds., 113
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 230
  • Akbar . Nehru 513
  • Chakravarti . India-China Relations 89 – 91 .
  • Hoffman , Steven A. 2006 . “Rethinking the Linkage between Tibet and the China-India Border Conflict: A Realist Approach,” . In Journal of Cold War Studies 8 (Summer: 179–81
  • Jian , Chen . 2006 . “The Tibetan Rebellion of 1959 and China's Changing Relations with India and the Soviet Union,” . In Journal of Cold War Studies 8 (Summer: 85
  • Kramer , Mark . 2006 . “Great-Power Rivalries, Tibetan Guerrilla Resistance, and the Cold War in South Asia: Introduction,” . In Journal of Cold War Studies 8 (Summer: 10–11
  • Hoffman . “Rethinking the Linkage,” 189–90
  • 21 July 2008 . Former IB officer IB-1, Interview, Bangalore, India
  • 1991 . War in the High Himalaya: The Indian Army in Crisis, 1962 London : Lancer International . D.K Palit 86
  • 24 November 2008 . Central Intelligence Agency—Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room [Online]. URL: http://www.foia.cia.gov/CPE/POLO/polo-07.pdf [24 November 2008]
  • Sandhu , Bhim . 1988 . Unresolved Conflict: China and India 82 New Delhi : Radiant Publishers .
  • 1965 . Struggle for the Himalayas: A Study in Sino-Indian Relations Delhi : University Publishers . Shanti Prasad Varma 110
  • Bhutani , Sudarshan . 2004 . A Clash of Political Cultures: Sino-Indian Relations 1957–1962 139 – 40 . New Delhi : Roll .
  • Chaturvedi , Gyaneshwar . 1991 . India-China Relations: 1947 to Present Day 94 Agra : M.G Publishers .
  • The Battle of NEFA At the start of hostilities, the PLA was approximately 2.5 million men strong, while the Indian Army had only just managed to build up its manpower to 550,000 personnel. Bhargava, 18. Also see Subrahmanyam and Monteiro, Shedding Shibboleths, 323
  • 1969 . Himalayan Blunder: The Curtain-raiser to the Sino-Indian War of 1962 Bombay : Thacker and Company Limited . J.P Dalvi 98–99
  • 1961 . Prime Minister on Sino-Indian Relations Vol. 1 , New Delhi : Ministry of External Affairs . India Parliament, vol., part 2 110
  • Vertzberger . Misperceptions in Foreign Policymaking 128
  • 25 November 2008 . Time—The Himalayas [Online]. URL: http://www.time.com/time/magazme/article/0,9171,896034,OO.html [25 November 2008]
  • Palit . War in the High Himalaya 9
  • 2006 . The Real Story of China's War on India, 1962 New Delhi : United Services Institution of India . A.K Dave 10
  • 24 November 2008 . Central Intelligence Agency—Freedom of Information Act Electronic Reading Room [Online]. URL: http://www.foia.cia.gov/CPE/POLO/polo-07.pdf [24 November 2008]
  • 1971 . The China Quarterly Quoted by Maxwell in Neville Maxwell and A.G Noorani, “India's Forward Policy,” in 45 (January-March: 157–58
  • 1 August 2003 . Asia Times—Vajpayee claps with one hand on border dispute The I.B adheres to the watershed principle while tracing the alignment of the McMahon Line, unlike the Indian and Chinese armies. [Online]. URL: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EHO1Df02.html [30 August 2008]
  • 1963 . “Communist China in Overview,” . In Asian Survey H. Arthur Steiner 3 (January: 9–10
  • Maxwell . India's China War 182
  • Ben-Zvi , Abraham . 1997 . “The dynamics of surprise: The defender's perspective,” . In Intelligence and National Security 12 (October: 128–19
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 339
  • 15 June 2008 . Bharat Rakshak—Official 1962 War History [Online]. URL: http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/LAND-FORCES/Army/History/1962War/PDF/1962Chapter02.pdf [30 August 2008]
  • Subrahmanyam and Monteiro . Shedding Shibboleths xxxii
  • Subrahmanyam . 7 September 2008 . Interview
  • 25 November 2008 . Harvard University—China's Decision for War with India in 1962 [Online] URL: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/∼johnston/garver.pdf [25 November 2008]
  • MacFarquhar , Roderick . 1997 . The Origins of the Cultural Revolution: The Coming of the Cataclysm 1961–1966 591 Oxford : Oxford University Press .
  • Khanduri . Thimayya 323 The person quoted is senior IB officer A.K Dave
  • Dave . The Real Story 14
  • Palit . War in the High Himalaya 177
  • Hoffmann , Steven A. 1972 . “Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory: India 1962–71,” . In Asian Survey 12 (November: 970–71
  • 7 September 2008 . K. Subrahmanyam now argues that the IB failed to provide timely reports on the scale of the Chinese military build-up in Tibet. Whatever information was available was too disjointed to be contextualized swiftly and for an overall assessment of the Chinese order of battle to be drawn up. Subrahmanyam, Interview
  • Palit . War in the High Himalaya 183 and 231
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 334
  • Ben-Zvi “The Dynamics of Surprise,” 126
  • 12 February 2003 . Asia Times—India fast forgetting the lessons of 1962 [Online]. URL: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EB12Df03.html [30 August 2008]
  • 1981 . China: Liberation and Political Transformation 1942–1962 London : Croom Helm . Domestically, the economy was still suffering from the aftershocks of natural calamities and the withdrawal of Soviet economic advisors. A revolt had occurred among the Kazakh population in Sinkiang, in areas contiguous to the Sino-Soviet border. Chinese suspicions of covert foreign support for the rebels eventually led to the expulsion of Soviet diplomats from the province. Meanwhile, the threat of war with Taiwan remained. See Bill Brugger, 240. Between 1960 and 1962, power struggles within China had weakened Mao's prestige and made him paranoid about threats to his authority. Against the advice of his lieutenants, he had launched the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and only two years later was confronted with the failure of this policy, in the shape of an economic disaster. While presiding over the recovery process, he grew deeply suspicious of his immediate subordinates, including Chou En Lai, and belittled them in public to reduce their stature. Under such circumstances, the conflict with India was a welcome distraction. See Frederick C. Teiwes, ‘Mao and his Lieutenants’, The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs 19/20 (January—July 1988): 16–20
  • Bhutani . A Clash of Political Cultures 128 – 32 .
  • MacFarquhar . The Origins of the Cultural Revolution 298 – 99 .
  • Srinivasan , Rajeev . 23 August 2004 . “What if India had won the 1962 war against China,” . In Outlook 44
  • 1997 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Christopher Bayley has noted a tendency of Indian decision-makers during the 19th century to formulate war plans that were based heavily on political intelligence but much less so on military intelligence. See Christopher Bayley, An Empire of Information: Political Intelligence and Social Communication in North India, 1780–1880
  • 25 November 2008 . Harvard University—China's Decision for War with India in 1962 [Online] URL: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/∼johnston/garver.pdf [25 November 2008]
  • 20 March 2003 . South Asia Analysis—LESSONS OF 1962: A Stock Taking after 40 fears [Online]. URL: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers7/paper693.html [30 August 2008]
  • Hoffmann . “Anticipation, Disaster, and Victory,” 972
  • 1962 . Himalayan Blunder Prior to the war, Both Nehru and defence minister Krishna Menon had stressed the remoteness of the disputed region in Aksai Chin. They used this as a rationale for explaining why the border conflict would not escalate into a larger clash between the Indian and Chinese armies. See Dalvi, 42. According to one veteran IB officer, prior to October the agency did not believe that China would go to war with India merely over a remote piece of completely uninhabited territory. In this, the IB leadership was only reflecting the prevailing logic elsewhere in the government. Former IB officer IB-2, Interview, 25 July 2008
  • 25 November 2008 . Harvard University—China's Decision for War with India in 1962 [Online] URL: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/∼johnston/garver.pdf [25 November 2008]
  • Gazit , Shlomo . 1980 . “Estimates and Fortune-telling in Intelligence Work,” . In International Security 4 (Spring: 41–42
  • 2007 . The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane New Delhi : Lancer . For instance, during the months preceding the Chinese invasion of NEFA, IB sources in Burma's Kachin state had reported a massive increase in the number of Chinese nationals in the region. Their handlers expressed concern to New Delhi over the ramifications of this development, but were ridiculed for being alarmist. It later transpired that the PLA had been infiltrating personnel into Burma from China for the purpose of outflanking Indian defences in eastern NEFA. Although the IB had information on these preparations, it failed to assess this correctly. B. Raman, 17–18
  • Mullik . The Chinese Betrayal 205 – 206 .
  • Nehru The Indian government was effectively maneuvered into a Catch-22 situation by the parliamentary opposition. One journalist noted that ‘while the opposition was strident enough when it came to criticizing Nehru on China, it seemed to become equally strident when any attempt was made to raise defence expenditure’. Akbar, 551–552
  • 1957 . “Communist Ideology in China,” . In International Affairs G.F Hudson 33 (April: 181–82
  • India-China Relations The then Indian Chief of the General Staff used these words to describe the policy. Quoted in Chaturvedi, 87
  • Himalayan Blunder For instance, Dhola Post was six days ‘march from a 1-ton roadhead on the Indian side of the McMahon Line, while on the other side the Chinese had a 7-ton roadhead three hours’ march from it. Elsewhere along the border in NEF A and Aksai Chin, the situation was similar. Dalvi, 45 and 65
  • 21 July 2008 . Former IB officer IB-1, Interview, This source has told the author that field-level civilian intelligence operatives had no knowledge of military affairs and could not even tell the difference between various types of infantry weapons
  • 11 October 2008 . Former IB officer IB-R, Interview

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