924
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system: comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

, , &
Pages 54-62 | Received 08 Jun 2017, Accepted 27 Oct 2017, Published online: 15 Dec 2017

References

  • Aceituno, P. 1992. “El Niño, the Southern Oscillation, and ENSO: Confusing Names for a Complex Ocean-atmosphere Interaction.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73 (4): 483–485.
  • Adler, R. F., G. J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, et al. 2003. “The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979 Present).” Journal of Hydrometeorology 4 (6): 1147–1167.10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2
  • Alexander, M. A., I. Bladé, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N. C. Lau, and J. D. Scott. 2002. “The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans.” Journal of Climate 15 (16): 2205–2231.10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2
  • An, S. I., and F. F. Jin. 2004. “Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of ENSO.” Journal of Climate 17 (12): 2399–2412.10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2399:NAAOE>2.0.CO;2
  • Anderson, D., T. Stockdale, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F. Vitart, R. Doblasreyes, R. Hagedorn, et al. 2002. “Comparison of the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System 1 and 2, including the Relative Performance for the 1997/98 El Nino.” Logic Colloquium 211–227.
  • Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata. 2007. “El Niño Modoki and Its Possible Teleconnection.” Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (C11): 505.10.1029/2006JC003798
  • Bao, Q., P. Lin, T. Zhou, L. Liu, J. Liu, Q. Bao, S. Xu, and W. Huang. 2013. “The Flexible Global Ocean-atmosphere-land System Model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 30 (3): 561–576.10.1007/s00376-012-2113-9
  • Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg. 1997. “Documentation of a Highly ENSO-Related SST Region in the Equatorial Pacific.” Atmosphere-Ocean 35 (3): 367–383.
  • Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L’Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt. 2012. “Skill of Real-time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–2011: Is Our Capability Increasing?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93 (5): 631–651.10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1
  • Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan. 1986. “Experimental Forecasts of El Niño.” Nature 322 (6073): 827–832.10.1038/321827a0
  • Dee, D. P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, and P. Bauer. 2011. “The ERA–Interim Reanalysis: Configuration and Performance of the Data Assimilation System.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137 (656): 553–597.10.1002/qj.v137.656
  • Harrison, D. E., and N. K. Larkin. 1998. “El Niño-southern Oscillation Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Anomalies, 1946–1993.” Reviews of Geophysics 36 (3): 353–399.10.1029/98RG00715
  • Hu, Z.-Z., A. Kumar, H. L. Ren, H. Wang, M. L’Heureux, and F.-F. Jin. 2013. “Weakened Interannual Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean since 2000.” Journal of Climate 26 (8): 2601–2613.10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00265.1
  • Huang, B., V. F. Banzon, E. Freeman, J. Lawrimore, W. Liu, and T. C. Peterson. 2015. “Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ersst.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons.” Journal of Climate 28 (3): 911–930.10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
  • Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter, B. Wang, C. K. Park, I. S. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J. S. Kug, A. Kumar, J. J. Luo, and J. Schemm. 2008. “Current Status of ENSO Prediction Skill in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models.” Climate Dynamics 31 (6): 647–664.10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3
  • Kug, J. S., F. F. Jin, and S. I. An. 2009. “Two Types of El Niño Events: Cold Tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño.” Journal of Climate 22 (22): 1499–1515.10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1
  • Latif, M., D. Anderson, T. Barnett, M. Cane, R. Kleeman, A. Leetmaa, J. O’Brien, A. Rosati, and E. Schneider. 1998. “A Review of the Predictability and Prediction of ENSO.” Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 103393 (30): 375–314.
  • Luo, J. J., and T. Yamagata. 2005. “Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.” Journal of Climate 18 (21): 4474–4497.10.1175/JCLI3526.1
  • McPhaden, M. J. 2012. “A 21st Century Shift in the Relationship between ENSO SST and Warm Water Volume Anomalies.” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (9): 9706.
  • McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz. 2006. “ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science.” Science 314 (5806): 1740.10.1126/science.1132588
  • Pierce, D. W. 2001. “Distinguishing Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions from Background Noise in the North Pacific.” Progress in Oceanography 49 (1-4): 331–352.10.1016/S0079-6611(01)00029-5
  • Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter. 1983. “The Relationship between Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Rainfall over India and Sri Lanka.” Monthly Weather Review 111 (111): 517.10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0517:TRBEEP>2.0.CO;2
  • Smith, D. M., R. Eade, and H. Pohlmann. 2013. “A Comparison of Full-field and Anomaly Initialization for Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction.” Climate Dynamics 41 (11–12): 3325–3338.10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
  • Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler. 1981. “Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter.” Monthly Weather Review 109: 784–804.10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
  • Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu. 2000. “Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?” Journal of Climate 13 (9): 1517–1536.10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2
  • Webster, P. J., V. O. Magaña, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari. 1998. “Monsoons: Processes, Predictability, and the Prospects for Prediction.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 1031 (C7): 14451–14510.10.1029/97JC02719
  • Weng, H., K. Ashok, S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, and T. Yamagata. 2007. “Impacts of Recent cp El Niño on Dry/Wet Conditions in the Pacific Rim during Boreal Summer.” Climate Dynamics 29 (2): 113–129.10.1007/s00382-007-0234-0
  • Wu, B., T. J. Zhou, and Q. Sun. 2017. “Impacts of Initialization Schemes of Oceanic States on the Predictive Skills of the IAP near-Term Climate Prediction System.” Advances in Earth Science 32 (4): 342–352.
  • Yeh, S. W., J. S. Kug, B. Dewitte, M. H. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman, and F. F. Jin. 2009. “El Niño in a Changing Climate.” Nature 461 (7263): 511.10.1038/nature08316
  • Zheng, F., and J. Zhu. 2010. “Coupled Assimilation for an Intermediated Coupled ENSO Prediction Model.” Ocean Dynamics 60 (5): 1061–1073.10.1007/s10236-010-0307-1
  • Zheng, F., and J. Zhu. 2015. “Roles of Initial Ocean Surface and Subsurface States on Successfully Predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an Intermediate Coupled Model.” Ocean Science 11 (1): 187–194.10.5194/os-11-187-2015
  • Zheng, F., and J. Zhu. 2016. “Improved Ensemble-mean Forecasting of ENSO Events by a Zero-mean Stochastic Error Model of an Intermediate Coupled Model.” Climate Dynamics 2016: 1–15.
  • Zheng, F., J. Zhu, R. H. Zhang, and G. Q. Zhou. 2006. “Ensemble Hindcasts of SST Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Using an Intermediate Coupled Model.” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (19): 318–37.
  • Zheng, Z., Z. Z. Hu, and M. L’Heureux. 2016. “Predictable Components of ENSO Evolution in Real-time Multi-model Predictions.” Scientific Reports 6: 35909.10.1038/srep35909
  • Zhou, G., and Q. Zeng. 2001. “Predictions of Enso with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 18 (4): 587–603.
  • Zhou, T. J., Y. Q. Yu, Y. M. Liu, and B. Wang. 2014. “Flexible Global Ocean-atmosphere-land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community.” Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg 483: 217–224. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-41801-3.