1,683
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

, &

References

  • Abu-Raddad, L. J., Barnabas, R. V., Janes, H., Weiss, H. A., Kublin, J. G., Longini, I. M. Jr., et al. (2013). Have the Explosive HIV Epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa Been Driven by Higher Community Viral Load? AIDS, 27(6), 981–989. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32835cb927
  • Anderson, R. A., Crabtree, B. F., Steele, D. J., & McDaniel, R. R. Jr., (2005). Case Study Research: The View from Complexity Science. Qualitative Health Research, 15(5), 669–685. doi:10.1177/1049732305275208
  • Andriani, P. & McKelvey, B. (2007). Beyond Gaussian Averages: Redirecting International Business and Management Research Toward Extreme Events and Power Laws. Journal of International Business Studies, 38(7), 1212–1230. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400324
  • Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals. California Management Review, 18(2), 21–33. doi: 10.2307/41164635
  • Aphane, M. (2015). Lay Opinions and Knowledge of Dikgopheng Community about Mental Illness in Polokwane Municipality, (Development Masters), Polokwane, University of Limpopo.
  • Auerbach, J. D., Parkhurst, J. O. & Caceres, C. F. (2011). Addressing Social Drivers of HIV/AIDS for the Long-Term Response: Conceptual and Methodological Considerations. Global Public Health, 6(Suppl 3), S293–S309. doi:10.1080/17441692.2011.594451
  • Axelrod, R. M. & Cohen, M. D. (2000). Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier, New York, Basic Books.
  • Barker, P., Barron, P., Bhardwaj, S. & Pillay, Y. (2015). The Role of Quality Improvement in Achieving Effective Large-Scale Prevention of Mother-to-child Transmission of HIV in South Africa. AIDS, 29(Suppl 2), S137–S143. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000718
  • Barron, P., Pillay, Y., Doherty, T., Sherman, G., Jackson, D., Bhardwaj, S., et al. (2013). Eliminating Mother-to-child HIV Transmission in South Africa. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 91(1), 70–74. doi:10.2471/BLT.12.106807
  • Becker, J. (2011). Evaluating a Complex and Uncertain Future. World Futures, 67, 30–46. doi: 10.1080/02604027.2010.532755
  • Bishop, B. J., Dzidic, P. L., Breen, L. J. & Bishop, B. (2013). Multiple-level Analysis as a Tool for Policy: An Example of the Use of Contextualism and Causal Layered Analysis. Journal of Community Psychology, 4(2), 1–13.
  • Boisot, M. & Child, J. (1999). Organizations as Adaptive Systems in Complex Environments: The Case of China. Organization Science, 10(3), 237–252. doi:10.1287/orsc.10.3.237
  • Burman, C. J., Aphane, M. & Delobelle, P. (2015). Reducing the Overall HIV-burden in South Africa: Is ‘Reviving ABC’ an Appropriate Fit for a Complex, Adaptive Epidemiological HIV Landscape? African Journal of AIDS Research, 14(1), 13–28. doi:10.2989/16085906.2015.1016988
  • Burman, C. J., Aphane, M., Mtapuri, O. & Delobelle, P. (2015). Expanding the Prevention Armamentarium Portfolio: A Framework for Promoting HIV-conversant Communities within a Complex, Adaptive Epidemiological Landscape. SAHARA-J: Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS, 12(1), 18–29. doi:10.1080/17290376.2015.1034292
  • Burman, C. J., Mamabolo, R., Aphane, M., Lebese, P. & Delobelle, P. (2013). The South African Developmental Landscape: Restricted Potentials or Expansive, Complex Adaptive Opportunities? The Journal for Transdisciplinary Research in Southern Africa, 9(1), 17–38.
  • Burman, C. J., Moerschell, L., Mamabolo, R., Aphane, M. & Delobelle, P. (2015). Re-imagining Decision Making: Addressing a Discrete Social Driver of HIV/AIDS Through the Lens of Complexity Science. African Journal of AIDS Research, 14(1), 75–84. doi:10.2989/16085906.2015.1016983
  • Camazine, S., Deneubourg, J., Franks, N., Sneyd, J., Theraulaz, G. & Bonabeau, E. (2001). Self-organization in Biological Systems, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.
  • Capra, F. (2002). The Hidden Connections: Integrating the Biological, Cognitive, and Social Dimensions of Life into a Science of Sustainability, New York, Doubleday Books.
  • Carey, G. & Crammond, B. (2015). Systems Change for the Social Determinants of Health. BMC Public Health, 15, 662. doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1979-8
  • Casella, D., Magara, P., Kumasi, T. C., Guijt, I. & van Soest, A. (2014). The Triple-S Project Sensemaker® Experience: A Method Tested and Rejected, The Hague, IRC.
  • Chu, C. & Selwyn, P. A. (2011). An Epidemic in Evolution: The Need for New Models of HIV Care in the Chronic Disease Era. Journal of Urban Health, 88(3), 556–566. doi:10.1007/s11524-011-9552-y
  • Cilliers, P. (1998). Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems, New York, Routledge.
  • Cilliers, P. (2005). Knowledge, Limits and Boundaries. Futures, 37(7), 605–613. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2004.11.001
  • Coleman, P. T., Vallacher, R. R., Nowak, A. & Bui-Wrzosinska, L. (2007). Intractable Conflict as an Attractor: A Dynamical Systems Approach to Conflict Escalation and Intractability. American Behavioral Scientist, 50(11), 1454–1475. doi:10.1177/0002764207302463
  • Deeks, S. G., Lewin, S. R. & Havlir, D. V. (2013). The End of AIDS: HIV Infection as a Chronic Disease. The Lancet, 382(9903), 1525–1533. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61809-7
  • DFID. (2014). Using SenseMaker to Understand Girls’ Lives: Lessons Learnt, London, The UK Department for International Development.
  • Dickens, P. M. (2012). Facilitating Emergence: Complex, Adaptive Systems Theory and the Shape of Change. (PhD thesis), New England, Antioch University.
  • Dybul, M. (2014). Better and Smarter Investments. Retrieved from http://www.theglobalfund.org/en/blog/2014-07-22_Better_and_Smarter_Investments/ (Accessed 27 November 2014).
  • Fiorella, K. J. (2013). Considering the Complexity in HIV/AIDS and the Environment. American Journal of Public Health, 103(9), e1. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2013.301433
  • Fourie, P. & Follér, M. L. (2012). AIDS Hyper-epidemics and Social Resilience: Theorising the Political. Contemporary Politics, 18(2), 254–268. doi:10.1080/13569775.2012.674342
  • Galatzer-Levy, R. M. (2002). Emergence. Psychoanalytic Inquiry, 22(5), 708–727. doi:10.1080/07351692209349014
  • Galea, S., Riddle, M. & Kaplan, G. A. (2010). Causal Thinking and Complex System Approaches in Epidemiology. International Journal of Epidemiology, 39(1), 97–106. doi:10.1093/ije/dyp296
  • GlobalGiving. (2014). Global Giving Story Tools. http://www.globalgiving.org/story-tools/ (Accessed 18 December 2014).
  • Grelotti, D. J., Closson, E. F., Smit, J. A., Mabude, Z., Matthews, L. T., Safren, S. A., et al. (2014). Whoonga: Potential Recreational Use of HIV Antiretroviral Medication in South Africa. AIDS and Behavior, 18(3), 511–518. doi:10.1007/s10461-013-0575-0
  • Grimsrud, A. T., Cornell, M., Egger, M., Boulle, A. & Myer, L. (2013). Impact of Definitions of Loss to Follow-up (LTFU) in Antiretroviral Therapy Program Evaluation: Variation in the Definition can have an Appreciable Impact on Estimated Proportions of LTFU. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 66(9), 1006–1013. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.03.013
  • Hankins, C. A. & de Zalduondo, B. O. (2010). Combination Prevention: A Deeper Understanding of Effective HIV Prevention. AIDS, 24(4), S70–S80. doi:10.1097/01.aids.0000390709.04255.fd
  • Hardee, K., Gribble, J., Weber, S., Manchester, T., Wood, M., Defoort, C., et al. (2013). Reclaiming the ABCs: The Creation and Evolution of the ABC Approach. Population-E, 63(2), 285–318. http://populationaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/ABCs_8.5×11.pdf
  • Harris, S. D. & Zeisler, S. (2002). Weak Signals: Detecting the Next Big Thing – Where's the Next Major Innovation Coming From? Being Alert for Weak Signals Could Clue you in. Futurist, 36(6), 21–28.
  • Hatt, K. (2008). Considering Complexity: Toward a Strategy for Non-linear Analysis. Canadian Journal of Sociology, 34(2), 313–348.
  • Holland, J. (1998). Emergence – From Chaos to Order, Reading, MA, Addison-Wesley.
  • James, C. H. & Minnis, W. C. (2004). Organizational Storytelling: It Makes Sense. Business Horizons, 47(4), 23–32. doi:10.1016/s0007-6813(04)00045-x
  • Jayasinghe, S. (2011). Conceptualising Population Health: From Mechanistic Thinking to Complexity Science. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, 8(1), 7. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21247500. doi:10.1186/1742-7622-8-2
  • Johnson, S. (2001). Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software, New York, Addison-Wesley.
  • Kaivo-oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio-cultural Transitions. Futures, 44(3), 206–217. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.003
  • Kauffman, S. (2005). At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity, New York, Oxford University Press.
  • Kippax, S., Stephenson, N., Parker, R. G. & Aggleton, P. (2013). Between Individual Agency and Structure in HIV Prevention: Understanding the Middle Ground of Social Practice. American Journal of Public Health, 103(8), 1367–1375. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2013.301301
  • Klein, G. (2008). Naturalistic Decision Making. Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, 50(3), 456–460. doi:10.1518/001872008X288385
  • Kurtz, C. F. & Snowden, D. J. (2003). The New Dynamics of Strategy: Sense-Making in a Complex and Complicated World. IBM Systems Journal, 42(3), 462–483. doi: 10.1147/sj.423.0462
  • Leach, M., Scoones, I. & Stirling, A. (2010). Governing Epidemics in an Age of Complexity: Narratives, Politics and Pathways to Sustainability. Global Environmental Change, 20(3), 369–377. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.11.008
  • Lee, M. E. (1997). From Enlightenment to Chaos: Toward Nonmodern Social Theory. In R. A. Eve, S. Horsfall & M. E. Lee (Eds.), Chaos, Complexity, and Sociology: Myths, Models, and Theories, pp. 15–29, Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage.
  • Lich, K. H., Ginexi, E. M., Osgood, N. D. & Mabry, P. L. (2013). A Call to Address Complexity in Prevention Science Research. Prevention Science, 14(3), 279–289. doi:10.1007/s11121-012-0285-2
  • Linde, C. (2001). Narrative and Social Tacit Knowledge. Journal of Knowledge Management, 5(2), 160–171. doi:10.1108/13673270110393202
  • Lorenz, E. (1972). Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC.
  • Luhmann, N. (1995). Social Systems, Stanford University, Stanford University Press.
  • Lurie, M. N. & Williams, B. G. (2014). Migration and Health in Southern Africa: 100 Years and Still Circulating. Health Psychology and Behavioral Medicine, 2(1), 34–40. doi:10.1080/21642850.2013.866898
  • Maree, G. A., Roux, D. J. & Marais, M. A. (2006). Beneath the Surface of Conscious Patterns: Using Narrative to Characterise the Culture of Innovation at a Leading R&D Organisation. The South African Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). http://researchspace.csir.co.za/dspace/bitstream/10204/1042/1/maree1_2006_D.pdf
  • Martin, C., Grady, D., Deaconking, S., McMahon, C., Zarabzadeh, A. & O'Shea, B. (2011). Complex Adaptive Chronic Care – Typologies of Patient Journey: A Case Study. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 17(3), 520–524. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2753.2011.01670.x
  • Martin, C. & Sturmberg, J. (2005). General Practice-Chaos, Complexity and Innovation. Medical Journal of Australia, 183(2), 106–109.
  • Matthews, L. T., Crankshaw, T., Giddy, J., Kaida, A., Smit, J. A., Ware, N. C., et al. (2013). Reproductive Decision-Making and Periconception Practices Among HIV-positive Men and Women Attending HIV Services in Durban, South Africa. AIDS and Behavior, 17(2), 461–470. doi:10.1007/s10461-011-0068-y
  • Maturana, H. R. & Varela, F. J. (1980). Problems in the Neurophysiology of Cognition. Autopoiesis and Cognition, 42, 41–47. doi:10.1007/978-94-009-8947-4_5
  • Maxmeister, M. P. (2014, December 22). [GlobalGiving Project].
  • McDaniel, R. R. & Driebe, D. J. (2001). Complexity Science and Health Care Management. In J. D. Blair, M. D. Fottler & G. Savage (Eds.), Advances in Health Care Management, Vol. 2, pp. 11–36, Stamford, CT, JAI.
  • Mendonça, S., Cardoso, G. & Caraça, J. (2012). The Strategic Strength of Weak Signal Analysis. Futures, 44(3), 218–228. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.004
  • Merson, M. H., O'Malley, J., Serwadda, D. & Apisuk, C. (2008). The History and Challenge of HIV Prevention. The Lancet, 372(9637), 475–488. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(08)60884-3
  • Michielsen, K., Chersich, M. F., Luchters, S., De Koker, P., Van Rossem, R. & Temmerman, M. (2010). Effectiveness of HIV Prevention for Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized and Nonrandomized Trials. AIDS, 24(8), 1193–1202. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283384791
  • Mkhize-Kwitshana, Z. L. & Mabaso, M. L. H. (2014). The Neglected Triple Disease Burden and Interaction of Helminths, HIV and Tuberculosis: An Opportunity for Integrated Action in South Africa. South African Medical Journal, 104(4), 258. doi:10.7196/samj.7947
  • Modjarrad, K. (2013). HIV and Helminths: Time for a New Direction. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 13(10), 835. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70239-1
  • Motsoaledi, A. (2014). Budget Vote in Parliament. http://www.polity.org.za/article/plans-to-turn-the-tide-on-hivaids-by-2030-2014-07-23 (Accessed 13 November 2014).
  • National Department of Health. (2012). eHealth Strategy South Africa 2012–2016. D. o. Health (Ed.), (pp. 36). Pretoria.
  • Nguyen, V. K., Bajos, N., Dubois-Arber, F., O'Malley, J. & Pirkle, C. M. (2011). Remedicalizing an Epidemic: From HIV Treatment as Prevention to HIV Treatment is Prevention. AIDS, 25(3), 291–293. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283402c3e
  • Nonaka, I. & Takeuchi, H. (1995). The Knowledge-creating Company: How Japanese Companies Create the Dynamics of Innovation, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Pandor, N. (2014). http://www.polity.org.za/article/sa-naledi-pandor-says-investment-in-research-and-development-for-hiv-prevention-remains-critical-2014-10-28 (Accessed 18 December 2014).
  • Parkhurst, J. O. & Whiteside, A. (2010). Innovative Responses for Preventing HIV Transmission: The Protective Value of Population-Wide Interruptions of Risk Activity. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine, 11(1), 19–21.
  • Pettifor, A., MacPhail, C., Corneli, A., Sibeko, J., Kamanga, G., Rosenberg, N., et al. (2011). Continued High Risk Sexual Behavior Following Diagnosis with Acute HIV Infection in South Africa and Malawi: Implications for Prevention. AIDS and Behavior, 15(6), 1243–1250. doi:10.1007/s10461-010-9839-0
  • Piot, P., Bartos, M., Larson, H., Zewdie, D. & Mane, P. (2008). Coming to Terms with Complexity: A Call to Action for HIV Prevention. The Lancet, 372(9641), 845–859. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60888-0
  • Pronyk, P. M., Hargreaves, J. R., Kim, J. C., Morison, L. A., Phetla, G., Watts, C., et al. (2006). Effect of a Structural Intervention for the Prevention of Intimate-Partner Violence and HIV in Rural South Africa: A Cluster Randomised Trial. The Lancet, 368(9551), 1973–1983. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(06)69744-4
  • Raford, N. (2012). Crowd-sourced Collective Intelligence Platforms for Participatory Scenarios and Foresight. Journal of Futures Studies, 17(1), 117–128.
  • Ramalingham, B. (2013). Aid on the Edge of Chaos, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Rodger, A., Bruun, T. & Cambiano, V. (2014). HIV Transmission Risk Through Condomless Sex if HIV+ Partner on Suppressive ART: PARTNER study. Paper presented at the 21st Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, Boston. http://www.natap.org/2014/CROI/CROI.htm
  • Rossel, P. (2012). Early Detection, Warnings, Weak Signals and Seeds of Change: A Turbulent Domain of Futures Studies. Futures, 44(3), 229–239. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.005
  • Rossouw, T. M. (2014). Monitoring Early Warning Indicators for HIV Drug Resistance in South Africa: Challenges and Opportunities. Clinical Infectious Diseases. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24585563 doi:10.1093/cid/ciu114
  • SANAC. (2012). National Strategic Plan on HIV, STIs and TB 2012–2016, Pretoria, South African National AIDS Council.
  • Shannon, K., Strathdee, S. A., Goldenberg, S. M., Duff, P., Mwangi, P., Rusakova, M., et al. (2014). Global Epidemiology of HIV Among Female Sex Workers: Influence of Structural Determinants. The Lancet, 385(9962), 55–71. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60931-4
  • Shisana, O., Rehle, T., Simbayi, L., Zuma, K., Jooste, S., Zungu, N., et al. (2014). South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012, Cape Town, HSRC Press.
  • Sidhom, S. & Lambert, P. (2011). Information Design for ‘Weak Signal’ detection and Processing in Economic Intelligence: A Case Study on Health Resources. Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business, 1(1), 40–48.
  • Silvestri, G. (2013). Embracing the Complexity of HIV Immunology. Immunological Reviews, 254(1), 5–9. doi:10.1111/imr.12081
  • Snowden, D. J. (2002). Archetypes as an Instrument of Narrative Patterning. Info Today, 209–216.
  • Snowden, D. J. (2005). Multi-ontology Sense Making: A New Simplicity in Decision Making. Informatics in Primary Care, 13(1), 45–54.
  • Snowden, D. (2011). Good Fences Make Good Neighbors. Information, Knowledge, Systems Management, 10(1), 135–150.
  • Snowden, D. J. & Boone, M. E. (2007). A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, 85(11), 68–76.
  • Stacey, R. (1995). The Science of Complexity: An Alternative Perspective for Strategic Change Processes. Strategic Management Journal, 16(6), 477–495. doi:10.1002/smj.4250160606
  • Stacey, R. (1996). Complexity and Creativity in Organizations, San Francisco, Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Stillwaggon, E. (2012). Complex Epidemics, Simplistic Tools: The Failure of AIDS Policy in Africa. In L. Swan, R. Gordan & J. Seckbach (Eds.), Origin(s) of Design in Nature, Vol. 23, pp. 773–791, London, Springer.
  • Stirzaker, R., Biggs, H., Roux, D. & Cilliers, P. (2010). Requisite Simplicities to Help Negotiate Complex Problems. Ambio, 39(8), 600–607. doi:10.1007/s13280-010-0075-7
  • Stricker, S. M., Fox, K. A., Baggaley, R., Negussie, E., de Pee, S., Grede, N., et al. (2014). Retention in Care and Adherence to ART are Critical Elements of HIV Care Interventions. AIDS and Behavior, 18(Suppl 5), S465–475. doi:10.1007/s10461-013-0598-6
  • Tastle, W. J. (1992). To Debate or Not to Debate. International Journal of General Systems, 21(2), 129–130. doi:10.1080/03081079208945064
  • UNAIDS. (2014a). Fast Track (pp. 40), Geneva, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.
  • UNAIDS. (2014b). The Gap Report (pp. 422), Geneva, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.
  • UNAIDS. (2015). How AIDS Changed Everything, Geneva, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.
  • Vergne, J. P. (2013). QWERTY is Dead, Long Live Path Dependence! Research Policy, 42, 1191–1194. doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2013.03.009
  • Walby, S. (2007). Complexity Theory, Systems Theory, and Multiple Intersecting Social Inequalities. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 37(4), 449–470. doi:10.1177/0048393107307663
  • Weaver, W. (1948). Science and Complexity. Scientific American, 36(4), 536–544.
  • Whittle, D. (2010). If you Can Flip a Coin, can you be an Expert? http://www.denniswhittle.com/2010/09/if-you-can-flip-coin-can-you-be-expert.html.
  • Wilson, D. & Halperin, D. T. (2008). “Know Your Epidemic, Know Your Response”: A Useful Approach, if we get it Right. The Lancet, 372(9637), 423–426. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(08)60883-1
  • Wilson, T. & Holt, T. (2001). Complexity Science: Complexity and Clinical Care. BMJ, 323(7314), 685–688. doi:10.1136/bmj.323.7314.685