438
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

The neighbourhood effect in economic voting: the association between local unemployment figures and national economic perceptions and incumbent voting in Belgium, 2009–2019

ORCID Icon &
Pages 644-663 | Received 28 Jan 2021, Accepted 11 Jul 2021, Published online: 31 Aug 2021

References

  • Achen, C., and L. Bartels. 2016. Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Governments. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Anderson, C. 2000. “Economic Voting and Political Context: A Comparative Perspective.” Electoral Studies 19 (2): 151–170.
  • Ansolabehere, S., S. Meredith, and E. Snowberg. 2014. “Mecro-Economic Voting: Local Information and Micro-Perceptions of the Macro-Economy.” Economics & Politics 26 (3): 380–410.
  • Badinger, H., and T. Url. 2002. “Determinants of Regional Unemployment: Some Evidence from Austria.” Regional Studies 36 (9): 977–988.
  • Bisgaard, M., P. Dinesen, and K. Sønderskov. 2016. “Reconsidering the Neighborhood Effect: Does Exposure to Residential Unemployment Influence Voters’ Perception of the National Economy?” Journal of Politics 78 (3): 719–732.
  • Conover, P. J., S. Feldman, and K. Knight. 1986. “Judging Inflation and Unemployment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations.” Journal of Politics 48 (3): 565–588.
  • Danckert, B., P. Dinesen, and K. Sønderskov. 2017. “Reacting to Neighborhood Cues? Political Sophistication Moderates the Effect of Exposure to Immigrants.” Public Opinion Quarterly 81 (1): 37–56.
  • Dassonneville, R., and M. Hooghe. 2012. “Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions: A Model for Francophone Belgium, 1981–2010.” International Journal of Forecasting 28 (4): 777–788.
  • Dassonneville, R., M. Hooghe, and M. Debus. 2017. “Economic Voting in a Federal Country: Overcoming the Limited Clarity of Responsibility.” In Mind the Gap: Political Participation and Representation in Belgium, edited by K. Deschouwer, 161–182. Colchester: ECPR Press.
  • Dassonneville, R., and M. Lewis-Beck. 2013. “Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe.” Political Science Research and Methods 1 (1): 53–66.
  • Dassonneville, R., and M. Lewis-Beck. 2019. “A Changing Economic Vote in Western Europe? Long-Term vs. Short-Term Forces.” European Political Science Review 11 (1): 91–108.
  • Deschouwer, K. 2012. The Politics of Belgium: Governing a Divided Society. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Duch, R., H. Palmer, and C. Anderson. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 635–652.
  • Duch, R., and R. Stevenson. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Eurostat. 2018. Regions of the European Union: Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics – NUTS 2016/EU-28. Luxembourg: European Commission.
  • Gelman, A., and J. Hill. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Hansford, T. G., and B. T. Gomez. 2015. “Reevaluating the Sociotropic Economic Voting Hypothesis.” Electoral Studies 39: 15–25.
  • Healy, A., and G. Lenz. 2017. “Presidential Voting and the Local Economy: Evidence from Two Population-Based Data Sets.” Journal of Politics 79 (4): 1419–1432.
  • Huttunen, K., J. Møen, and K. Salvanes. 2018. “Job Loss and Regional Mobility.” Journal of Labor Economics 36 (2): 479–509.
  • Johnston, R., and C. Pattie. 2002. “Geographical Scale, the Attribution of Credit/Blame, Local Economic Circumstances, and Retrospective Economic Voting in Great Britain 1997: An Extension of the Model.” Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 20 (3): 421–438.
  • Larsen, M., F. Hjorth, P. Dinesen, and K. Sønderskov. 2019. “When Do Citizens Respond Politically to the Local Economy? Evidence from Registry Data on Local Housing Markets.” American Political Science Review 113 (2): 499–516.
  • Lewis-Beck, M. 1990. Economics and Elections. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Lewis-Beck, M., and M. Stegmaier. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183–219.
  • Lewis-Beck, M., and M. Stegmaier. 2013. “The VP-Function Revisited: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 40 Years.” Public Choice 157 (3): 367–385.
  • McKay, L. 2019. “‘Left Behind’ People, or Places? The Role of Local Economies in Perceived Community Representation.” Electoral Studies 60: 102046.
  • Minkoff, S., and J. Lyons. 2019. “Living With Inequality: Neighborhood Income Diversity and Perceptions of the Income Gap.” American Politics Research 47 (2): 329–361.
  • Nadeau, R., M. Lewis-Beck, and E. Bélanger. 2013. “Economics and Elections Revisited.” Comparative Political Studies 46 (5): 551–573.
  • Nannestad, P., and M. Paldam. 1994. “The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years.” Public Choice 79 (3): 213–245.
  • Newman, B., and C. Vickrey. 2017. “Friends on the Dole: Social Networks, Vicarious Economic Distress, and Support for Social Welfare Spending.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 29 (1): 172–188.
  • OECD. 2019. Economic Outlook Belgium. Paris: OECD.
  • Paldam, M., and P. Nannestad. 2000. “What do Voters Know About the Economy? A Study of Danish Data, 1990–1993.” Electoral Studies 19 (2): 363–391.
  • Powell, G. B., and G. Whitten. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414.
  • Reeves, A., and J. Gimpel. 2012. “Ecologies of Unease: Geographic Context and National Economic Evaluations.” Political Behavior 34 (3): 507–534.
  • Reif, K., and H. Schmitt. 1980. “Nine Second-Order National Elections – A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results.” European Journal of Political Research 8 (1): 3–44.
  • Rogers, J. 2014. “A Communotropic Theory of Economic Voting.” Electoral Studies 36: 107–116.
  • Savelkoul, M., J. Laméris, and J. Tolsma. 2017. “Neighbourhood Ethnic Composition and Voting for the Radical Right in The Netherlands.” European Sociological Review 33 (2): 209–224.
  • Schakel, A., and C. Jeffery. 2013. “Are Regional Elections really ‘Second-Order’ Elections?” Regional Studies 47 (3): 323–341.
  • Simonovits, G., S. Kates, and B. Szeitl. 2019. “Local Economic Shocks and National Election Outcomes: Evidence from Hungarian Administrative Data.” Political Behavior 41 (2): 337–348.
  • Stiers, D. 2019. “Static and Dynamic Models of Retrospective Voting: A Clarification and Application to the Individual Level.” Politics & Policy 47 (5): 859–876.
  • Stiers, D. 2021. “Political Information and Retrospective Voting.” West European Politics 44 (2): 275–298.
  • Stiers, D., R. Dassonneville, and M. Lewis-Beck. 2020. “The Abiding Voter: The Lengthy Horizon of Retrospective Evaluations.” European Journal of Political Research 59 (3): 646–668.
  • Van Wijk, D., G. Bolt, and R. Johnston. 2019. “Contextual Effects on Populist Radical Right Support: Consensual Neighbourhood Effects and the Dutch PVV.” European Sociological Review 35 (2): 225–238.
  • Verhetsel, A., T. Vanoutrive, and T. Zijlstra. 2014. Het woon-werk verkeer in Vlaanderen. Antwerp: Steunpunt Goederen- en Personenvervoer.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.