An institutional safety net? How electoral institutions mediate the fortunes of parties under threat

References

• Abou-Chadi, T., and M. Wagner. 2019. “The Electoral Appeal of Party Strategies in Postindustrial Societies: When Can the Mainstream Left Succeed?” The Journal of Politics 81 (4): 1405–1419.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Abou-Chadi, T., and M. Wagner. 2020. “Electoral Fortunes of Social Democratic Parties: Do Second Dimension Positions Matter?” Journal of European Public Policy 27 (2): 246–272.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bakker, R., S. Jolly, and J. Polk. 2018. “Multidimensional Incongruence and Vote Switching in Europe.” Public Choice 176 (1): 267–296.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bakker, R., S. Jolly, and J. Polk. 2020. “Multidimensional Incongruence, Political Disaffection, and Support for Anti-Establishment Parties.” Journal of European Public Policy 27 (2): 292–309.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bargsted, M. A., and O. Kedar. 2009. “Coalition-Targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice Under Proportional Representation.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (2): 307–323.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bawn, K. 1999. “Voter Responses to Electoral Complexity: Ticket Splitting, Rational Voters and Representation in the Federal Republic of Germany.” British Journal of Political Science 29 (3): 487–505.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Becher, M., and U. Sieberer. 2008. “Discipline, Electoral Rules and Defection in the Bundestag, 1983–94.” German Politics 17 (3): 293–304.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Benedetto, G., S. Hix, and N. Mastrorocco. 2020. “The Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918–2017.” American Political Science Review 114 (3): 928–939.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blais, A., P. J. Loewen, D. Rubsenson, L. B. Stephenson, and E. Gidengil. 2018. “Information on Party Strength and Strategic Voting: Evidence of Non-Effects from a Randomized Experiment.” In The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World, edited by L. Stephenson, J. H. Aldrich, and A. Blais, 89–103. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bremer, B., and L. Rennwald. 2022. “Who Still Likes Social Democracy? The Support Base of Social Democratic Parties Reconsidered.” Party Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688221093770.
   Google Scholar
• Budge, I., and D. Farlie. 1983. Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies. London: Allen and Unwin.
   Google Scholar
• Caughey, D., T. O’Grady, and C. Warshaw. 2019. “Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981–2016.” American Political Science Review 113 (3): 674–693.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cox, G. W. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems (1st ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cox, K. E., and L. J. Schoppa. 2002. “Interaction Effects in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems.” Comparative Political Studies 35: 1027–1053.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Vries, C. E., and S. B. Hobolt. 2020. Political Entrepreneurs: The Rise of Challenger Parties. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Dejaeghere, Y., and R. Dassonneville. 2017. “A Comparative Investigation Into the Effects of Party-System Variables on Party Switching Using Individual-Level Data.” Party Politics 23 (2): 110–123.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Downs, A. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.
   Google Scholar
• Duverger, Maurice. 1951. Les Parties Politiques. Paris: Armand Colin.
   Google Scholar
• Evans, G., and J. Tilley. 2011. “How Parties Shape Class Politics: Explaining the Decline of the Class Basis of Party Support.” British Journal of Political Science 42 (1): 137–161.
   Google Scholar
• Ferrara, F., E. Herron, and M. Nishikawa. 2005. Mixed Electoral Systems: Contamination and its Consequences. New York: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Fortunato, D., R. T. Stevenson, and G. Vonnahme. 2016. “Context and Political Knowledge: Explaining Cross-National Variation in Partisan Left-Right Knowledge.” The Journal of Politics 78 (4): 1211–1228.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gingrich, J. 2017. “A New Progressive Coalition? The European Left in a Time of Change.” The Political Quarterly 88 (1): 39–51.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gingrich, J., and S. Häusermann. 2015. “The Decline of the Working-Class Vote, the Reconfiguration of the Welfare Support Coalition and Consequences for the Welfare State.” Journal of European Social Policy 25 (1): 50–75.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T. 2004. Strategic Voting in Mixed Electoral Systems. SFG-Elsevier: Amsterdam.
   Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T. 2007. “Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting and Party System Change in Portugal.” Portugese Journal of Social Sciences 6 (1): 15–31.
   Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T. 2007. “Ticket-splitting and Strategic Voting Under Mixed Electoral Rules: Evidence from Germany.” European Journal of Political Research 46 (1): 1–23.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T., R. Johnston, and C. Pattie. 2003. “Split-Ticket Patterns in Mixed-Member Proportional Election Systems: Estimates and Analyses of Their Spatial Variation at the German Federal Election, 1998.” British Journal of Political Science 33 (1): 109–127.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T., and F. U. Pappi. 2004. “Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl.” In Die Bundestagswahl 2002, edited by F. Brettschneider, J. van Deth, and E. Roller, 167–183. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag.
   Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T., and H. Van der Kolk. 2006. “Split Ticket Voting in Mixed Member Proportional Systems: The Hypothetical Case of The Netherlands.” Acta Politica 41 (2): 163–179.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hainmueller, J., and H. L. Kern. 2008. “Incumbency as a Source of Spillover Effects in Mixed Electoral Systems: Evidence from a Regression-Discontinuity Design.” Electoral Studies 27 (2): 213–227.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Herrmann, M., and F. U. Pappi. 2008. “Strategic Voting in German Constituencies.” Electoral Studies 27 (2): 228–244.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Herron, E. S., and M. Nishikawa. 2001. “Contamination Effects and the Number of Parties in Mixed-Superposition Electoral Systems.” Electoral Studies 20 (1): 63–86.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jesse, E. 1988. “Split-Voting in the Federal Republic of Germany: An Analysis of the Federal Elections from 1953 to 1987.” Electoral Studies 7 (2): 109–124.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karp, J. A. 2009. “Candidate Effects and Spill-Over in Mixed Systems: Evidence from New Zealand.” Electoral Studies 28 (1): 41–50.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karp, J. A., J. Vowles, S. A. Banducci, and T. Donovan. 2002. “Strategic Voting, Party Activity, and Candidate Effects: Testing Explanations for Split Voting in New Zealand’s New Mixed System.” Electoral Studies 21 (1): 1–22.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karreth, J., J. T. Polk, and C. S. Allen. 2013. “Catchall or Catch and Release? The Electoral Consequences of Social Democratic Parties’ March to the Middle in Western Europe.” Comparative Political Studies 46 (7): 791–822.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kitschelt, H. P. 1988. “Left-Libertarian Parties: Explaining Innovation in Competitive Party Systems.” World Politics 40 (2): 194–234.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kitschelt, H. 1994. The Transformation of European Social Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Klingemann, H.-D., and B. Wessels. 2003. “The Political Consequences of Germany’s Mixed-Member System: Personalization at the Grass Roots?” In Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?, edited by M.S. Shugart and M.P. Shugart, 279–296. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Lesch, H. 2016. Regionale Unterschiede. Institut Der Deutschen Wirtschaft. Retrieved from https://www.iwkoeln.de/studien/iw-kurzberichte/beitrag/organisationsgrad-der-gewerkschaften-regionale-unterschiede-294956.html.
   Google Scholar
• Marks, G., and M. Steenbergen. 2002. “Understanding Political Contestation in the European Union.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (8): 879–892.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meffert, M. F., and T. Gschwend. 2011. “Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects.” European Journal of Political Research 50 (5): 636–667.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meffert, M. F., S. Huber, T. Gschwend, and F. U. Pappi. 2011. “More Than Wishful Thinking: Causes and Consequences of Voters’ Electoral Expectations About Parties and Coalitions.” Electoral Studies 30: 804–815.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moser, R. G., and E. Scheiner. 2005. “Strategic Ticket Splitting and the Personal Vote in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30 (2): 259–276. doi:10.3162/036298005X201545.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moser, R. G., and E. Scheiner. 2009. “Strategic Voting in Established and New Democracies: Ticket Splitting in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems.” Electoral Studies 28 (1): 51–61. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• OECD. 2020. Trade Union. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TUD. Accessed on August 7, 2020.
   Google Scholar
• Oesch, D., and L. Rennwald. 2018. “Electoral Competition in Europe’s New Tripolar Political Space: Class Voting for the Left, Centre-Right and Radical Right.” European Journal of Political Research 57 (4): 783–807.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pappi, F. U., and P. W. Thurner. 2002. “Electoral Behaviour in a two-Vote System: Incentives for Ticket Splitting in German Bundestag Elections.” European Journal of Political Research 41 (2): 207–232.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Przeworski, Adam, and John Sprague. 1986. Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Rennwald, L., and G. Evans. 2014. “When Supply Creates Demand: Social Democratic Party Strategies and the Evolution of Class Voting.” West European Politics 37 (5): 1108–1135.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rennwald, L., and J. Pontusson. 2020. “Paper Stones Revisited: Class Voting, Unionization and the Electoral Decline of the Mainstream Left.” Perspectives on Politics 19 (1): 1–19.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rheault, L., A. Blais, J. H. Aldrich, and T. Gschwend. 2020. “Understanding People’s Choice When They Have two Votes.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 30 (4): 466–483.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roberts, G. K. 1988. “The 'second-Vote' Campaign Strategy of the West German Free Democratic Party*.” European Journal of Political Research 16 (3): 317–337.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schuessler, A. A. 2000. “Expressive Voting.” Rationality and Society 12 (1): 87–119.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sieberer, U. 2006. “Party Unity in Parliamentary Democracies: A Comparative Analysis.” The Journal of Legislative Studies 12 (2): 150–178.
   Google Scholar
• Sieberer, U. 2010. “Behavioral Consequences of Mixed Electoral Systems: Deviating Voting Behavior of District and List MPs in the German Bundestag.” Electoral Studies 29 (3): 484–496.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spoon, J., and H. Klüver. 2019. “Party Convergence and Vote Switching: Explaining Mainstream Party Decline Across Europe.” European Journal of Political Research 58 (4): 1021–1042.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steenbergen, M. R., and B. S. Jones. 2002. “Modeling Multilevel Data Structures.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (1): 218–237.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Volkens, A., P. Lehmann, T. Matthieß, N. Merz, S. Regel, and A. Werner. 2018a. The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2015a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB).
   Google Scholar
• Walgrave, S., Lefevre, J, and Tresch, A. (2012). The Associative Dimension of Issue Ownership. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(4), 771-782.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar