Social conformity or attitude persistence? The bandwagon effect and the spiral of silence in a polarized context

References

• Abramowitz, Alan I., and Kyle L. Saunders. 2008. “Is Polarization a Myth?” The Journal of Politics 70 (2): 542–555. doi:10.1017/S0022381608080493
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asch, Solomon E. 1955. “Opinions and Social Pressure.” Scientific American 193 (5): 31–35. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1155-31
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baltussen, Guido, Thierry Post, Martijn van den Assem, and Peter Wakker. 2012. “Random Incentive Systems in a Dynamic Choice Experiment.” Experimental Economics 15: 418–443. doi:10.1007/s10683-011-9306-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnfield, Matthew. 2020. “Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect.” Political Studies Review 18 (4): 553–574. doi:10.1177/1478929919870691
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Becker, Gordon M., Morris H. Degroot, and Jacob Marschak. 1964. “Measuring Utility by a Single-Response Sequential Method.” Behavioral Science 9 (3): 226–232. doi:10.1002/bs.3830090304.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Bolsen, Toby, James N. Druckman, and Fay Lomax Cook. 2014. “The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion.” Political Behavior 36 (2): 235–262. doi:10.1007/s11109-013-9238-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bond, Rod. 2005. “Group Size and Conformity.” Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 8 (4): 331–354. doi:10.1177/1368430205056464
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bravo, Giangiacomo, and Mike Farjam. 2022. “Actions Speak Louder than Words: Attitudes, Behaviour, and Partisan Identity in a Polarised Environmental Domain.” Energy Research & Social Science 90: 102547. doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102547
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carsey, Thomas M., and Geoffrey C. Layman. 2006. “Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (2): 464–477. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ceci, Stephen J., and Edward L. Kain. 1982. “Jumping on the Bandwagon with the Underdog: The Impact of Attitude Polls on Polling Behavior.” Public Opinion Quarterly 46 (2): 228–242. doi:10.1086/268715
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clifford, Scott, Ryan M. Jewell, and Philip D. Waggoner. 2015. “Are Samples Drawn from Mechanical Turk Valid for Research on Political Ideology?” Research & Politics 2 (4): 2053168015622072. doi:10.1177/2053168015622072
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Converse, Philip. 2006. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics (1964)” Critical Review 18: 1–74. doi:10.1080/08913810608443650
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coppock, Alexander. 2019. “Generalizing from Survey Experiments Conducted on Mechanical Turk: A Replication Approach.” Political Science Research and Methods 7 (3): 613–628. doi:10.1017/psrm.2018.10
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coppock, Alexander, Thomas J. Leeper, and Kevin J. Mullinix. 2018. “Generalizability of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimates Across Samples.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (49): 12441–6. doi:10.1073/pnas.1808083115
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Druckman, James N., and Mary C. McGrath. 2019. “The Evidence for Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Preference Formation.” Nature Climate Change 9 (2): 111–119. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0360-1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farjam, Mike. 2021. “The Bandwagon Effect in an Online Voting Experiment With Real Political Organizations.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 33 (2): 412–421. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edaa008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hetherington, Marc J. 2009. “Review Article: Putting Polarization in Perspective.” British Journal of Political Science 39 (2): 413–448. doi:10.1017/S0007123408000501
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Iyengar, Shanto, Yphtach Lelkes, Matthew Levendusky, Neil Malhotra, and Sean J. Westwood. 2019. “The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States.” Annual Review of Political Science 22 (1): 129–146. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krumpal, Ivar. 2013. “Determinants of Social Desirability Bias in Sensitive Surveys: A Literature Review.” Quality & Quantity 47 (4): 2025–2047. doi:10.1007/s11135-011-9640-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lammers, Joris, Marcin Bukowski, Anna Potoczek, Alexandra Fleischmann, and Wilhelm Hofmann. 2022. “Disentangling the Factors Behind Shifting Voting Intentions: The Bandwagon Effect Reflects Heuristic Processing, While the Underdog Effect Reflects Fairness Concerns.” Journal of Social and Political Psychology 10 (2): 676–692. doi:10.5964/jspp.9241
   Google Scholar
• Lang, Kurt, and Gladys Engel Lang. 1984. “The Impact of Polls on Public Opinion.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 472: 129–142. doi:10.1177/0002716284472001012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leeper, Thomas J., and Joshua Robison. 2021. “More Important, but for What Exactly? The Insignificant Role of Subjective Issue Importance in Vote Decisions.” Political Behavior 42 (1): 239–259. doi:10.1007/s11109-018-9494-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Macy, Michael, Sebastian Deri, Alexander Ruch, and Natalie Tong. 2019. “Opinion Cascades and the Unpredictability of Partisan Polarization.” Science Advances 5 (8): eaax0754. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax0754
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Madson, Gabriel J., and D. Sunshine Hillygus. 2020. “All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling.” Political Behavior 42 (4): 1055–1072. doi:10.1007/s11109-019-09532-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Matthes, Jörg. 2015. “Observing the "Spiral" in the Spiral of Silence” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 27 (2): 155–176. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edu032
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Montgomery, Jacob M., Brendan Nyhan, and Michelle Torres. 2018. “How Conditioning on Posttreatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do about It.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 760–775. doi:10.1111/ajps.12357.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morton, Rebecca B., and Kai Ou. 2015. “What Motivates Bandwagon Voting Behavior: Altruism or a Desire to win?” European Journal of Political Economy 40: 224–241. doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moscovici, Serge, Elisabeth Lage, and Martine Naffrechoux. 1969. “Influence of a Consistent Minority on the Responses of a Majority in a Color Perception Task.” Sociometry 32 (4): 365–380. doi:10.2307/2786541
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Nadeau, Richard, Edouard Cloutier, and J. H. Guay. 1993. “New Evidence about the Existence of a Bandwagon Effect in the Opinion Formation Process.” International Political Science Review 14 (2): 203–213. doi:10.1177/019251219301400204
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth. 1974. “The Spiral of Silence A Theory of Public Opinion.” Journal of Communication 24 (2): 43–51. doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.1974.tb00367.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rice, Douglas, Brian F. Schaffner, and David J. Barney. 2021. “Political Ideology and Issue Importance.” Political Research Quarterly 74 (4): 1081–1096. doi:10.1177/1065912920967744.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Duyn, Emily, and Jessica Collier. 2019. “Priming and Fake News: The Effects of Elite Discourse on Evaluations of News Media.” Mass Communication and Society 22 (1): 29–48. doi:10.1080/15205436.2018.1511807
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Voslinsky, Alisa, and Ofer H. Azar. 2021. “Incentives in Experimental Economics.” Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics 93: 101706. doi:10.1016/j.socec.2021.101706
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waterfield, Gina, Scott Kaplan, and David Zilberman. 2020. “Willingness to Pay versus Willingness to Vote: Consumer and Voter Avoidance of Genetically Modified Foods.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102 (2): 505–524. doi:10.1002/ajae.12001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Webster, Steven W., and Alan I. Abramowitz. 2017. “The Ideological Foundations of Affective Polarization in the U.S. Electorate.” American Politics Research 45 (4): 621–647. doi:10.1177/1532673X17703132
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Webster, Murray, and Jane Sell. 2014. “Why Do Experiments?” In Laboratory Experiments in the Social Sciences (2nd Edition), edited by Murray Webster, and Jane Sell, 5–21. San Diego: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Westfall, Jacob, Leaf Van Boven, John R. Chambers, and Charles M. Judd. 2015. “Perceiving Political Polarization in the United States” Perspectives on Psychological Science 10 (2): 145–158. doi:10.1177/1745691615569849
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, Cambridge Studies in Public Opinion and Political Psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar