678
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Modification of a linear regression-based multi-model super-ensemble technique and its application in forecasting of wave height during extreme weather conditions

, , , &
Pages 1-10 | Received 24 Nov 2015, Accepted 04 Jan 2018, Published online: 15 Feb 2018

References

  • Abarbanel HDI, Carrroll TA, Pecora LM, Sidorowich JJ, Tsimring LS. 1994. Predicting physical variables in time delay embedding. Phys Rev E. 49:1840–1853. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.49.1840
  • Broomhead DS, King GP. 1986. Extracting qualitative dynamics from experimental data. Phys D. 20:217–236. doi: 10.1016/0167-2789(86)90031-X
  • Casdagli M, Eubank S, Farmar JD, Gibson J. 1991. State space reconstruction in the presence of noise. Phys D. 51:52–98. doi: 10.1016/0167-2789(91)90222-U
  • Chakraborty A, Krishnamurti TM. 2009. Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India from downscaling and FSU superensemble. Part II: seasonal climate. Mon Weather Rev. 137:2736–2757. doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2736.1
  • Krishnamurti TN, Gnanaseelan C, Chakraborty A. 2007. Prediction of the diurnal change using a multi-model super-ensemble. Part I: precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135:3613–3632. doi: 10.1175/MWR3446.1
  • Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, LaRow T, Bachiochi DR, Zhang Z, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendran S. 1999. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model super-ensemble. Science. 285:1548–1550. doi: 10.1126/science.285.5433.1548
  • Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, Shin DW, Williford CE. 2000. Improving tropical precipitation forecasts from a multianalysis super-ensemble. J Clim. 13:4217–4227. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4217:ITPFFA>2.0.CO;2
  • Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, Zhang Z, LaRow T, Bachiochi DR, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendran S. 2000. Multi-model ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J Clim. 13:4196–4216. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:MEFFWA>2.0.CO;2
  • Kumar TV, Krishnamurthy TN, Fiorino M, Nagata M. 2003. Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific. Mon Weather Rev. 131:574–583. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0574:MSFOTC>2.0.CO;2
  • Leith CE. 1974. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon Weather Rev. 102:409–418. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0409:TSOMCF>2.0.CO;2
  • Lenartz F, Beckers JM, Chiggiatol J, Mourre B, Troupin C, Vandenbulcke L, Rixen M. 2010. Super-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations. Ocean Sci. 6:595–604. doi: 10.5194/os-6-595-2010
  • Logutov OG, Robinson AR. 2005. Multi-model fusion and error parameter estimation. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc. 131:3397–3408. doi: 10.1256/qj.05.99
  • Lorenz EN. 1965. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmosphere model. Tellus. 17:321–333. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v17i3.9076
  • Rixen M, Book JW, Carta A, Grandi V, Gualdesi L, Stoner R, Ranelli P, Cavanna A, Zanasca P, Baldasserini G, et al. 2009. Improved ocean prediction skill and reduced uncertainty in the coastal region from multi-model super-ensembles. J Mar Syst. 78:S282–S289. doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.014
  • Rixen M, Coelho EF. 2006. Operational prediction of acoustic properties in the ocean using multi-model statistics. Ocean Model. 11:428–440. doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.02.002
  • Rixen M, Coelho EF. 2007. Operational surface drift prediction using linear and non-linear hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric and ocean models. J Mar Syst. 65:105–121. doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.12.005
  • Sandhya KG, Balakrishnan TMN, Bhaskaran PK, Sabique L, Arun N, Jeykumar K. 2014. Wave forecasting system for operational use and its validation at coastal Puducherry, east coast of India. Ocean Eng. 80:64–72. doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.01.009
  • Shin D, Krishnamurti TM. 2003a. Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: deterministic forecasting. J Geophys Res. 108:8383. doi: 10.1029/2001JD001510
  • Shin D, Krishnamurti TM. 2003b. Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: probabilistic forecasting. J Geophys Res. 108:8384. doi: 10.1029/2001JD001511
  • Sorensen OR, Kofoed-Hansen H, Rugbjerg M, Sorensen LS. 2004. A third-generation spectral wave model using an unstructured finite volume technique. Proceedings of the 29th international conference on coastal engineering; Sep 19–24; Lisbon, Portugal. p. 894–906.
  • Tolman HL. 2014. User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III R version 4.07. Technical Note 222, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB.
  • Tolman HL, Chalikov DV. 1996. Source terms in a third-generation wind wave model. J Phys Oceanogr. 26: 2497–2518.
  • Toth Z, Kalnay E. 1993. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 74:2317–2330. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<2317:EFANTG>2.0.CO;2
  • Vandenbulcke L, Beckers JM, Lenartz F, Barth A, et al. 2009. Super-ensemble techniques: application to surface drift prediction. Progr Oceanogr. 82:149–167. doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.06.002
  • Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, HUDHUD over the Bay of Bengal. 2014, October 7–14. India Meteorological Department. (October 2014): a report. http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/pdf/publications/preliminary-report/hud.pdf.
  • Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, NILOFAR over the Arabian Sea. 2014, October 25–31. India Meteorological Department. (November 2014): a report. http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/pdf/publications/preliminary-report/nilofar.pdf.
  • Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over the Bay of Bengal. 2013, October 8–14. Indian Meteorological Department. (October 2013): a report. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/phailin.pdf.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.