480
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

A vector-autoregression-intervention analysis of PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counterterrorism

ORCID Icon &
Pages 189-212 | Received 28 Jun 2022, Accepted 22 Aug 2022, Published online: 04 Sep 2022

References

  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401. doi:10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
  • Argomaniz, J., & Vidal-Diez, A. (2015). Examining deterrence and backlash effects in counter-terrorism: The case of ETA. Terrorism and Political Violence, 27(1), 160–181.
  • Asal, V., Phillips, B. J., Rethemeyer, R. K., Simonelli, C., & Young, J. K. (2019). Carrots, sticks, and insurgent targeting of civilians. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(7), 1710–1735. doi:10.1177/0022002718789748
  • Barros, C. P. (2003). An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case. Defence and Peace Economics, 14(6), 401–412. doi:10.1080/1024269032000085170
  • Beren, F. (2012). The action profile of PKK/KCK terrorist organization. Review of International Law and Politics, 8(29), 87–108.
  • Bird, J. (2019). Terrorism and counterterrorism: A policy perspective. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198732914.013.38
  • Blankenship, B. (2018). When do states take the bait? State capacity and the provocation logic of terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(2), 381–409.
  • Braithwaite, J. (2002). Thinking critically about the war model and the criminal justice model for combating terrorism. Available at SSRN 330500.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, E., & Dickson, E. S. (2007). The propaganda of the deed: Terrorism, counterterrorism, and mobilization. American Journal of Political Science, 51(2), 364–381.
  • Byman, D. (1998). The logic of ethnic terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 21(2), 149–169. doi:10.1080/10576109808436060
  • Ciftci, I., & Kula, S. (2015). The evaluation of the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies on the PKK-inflicted violence during the democratization process of Turkey. Contemporary Voices: St Andrews Journal of International Relations, 6(1), doi:10.15664/jtr.1075
  • Clark, R. P. (1986). Patterns of ETA violence: 1968-1980. In Peter H. Merkl (Ed.), Political violence and terror (pp. 123–142). Berkeley: University of California Press. doi:10.1525/9780520328044-005
  • Coleman, P. T., & Bartoli, A. (2003). Addressing extremism. The International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution. Retrieved from https://fpamed.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/WhitePaper-on-Extremism.pdf
  • Craig, S. C., & Maggiotto, M. A. (1982). Measuring political efficacy. Political Methodology, 8(3), 85–109.
  • Cronin, A. K. (2011). How terrorism ends: Understanding the decline and demise of terrorist campaigns. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Dafoe, A., Hatz, S., & Zhang, B. (2021). Coercion and provocation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65(2–3), 372–402. doi:10.1177/0022002720957078
  • Daxecker, U. E., & Hess, M. L. (2013). Repression hurts: Coercive government responses and the demise of terrorist campaigns. British Journal of Political Science, 43(3), 559–577.
  • De Figueiredo, R. J., & Weingast, B. R. (2000). Vicious cycles: Endogenous political extremism and political violence. Available at SSRN 1153519.
  • De Mesquita, E. B. (2005). Conciliation, counterterrorism, and patterns of terrorist violence. International Organization, 59(01), doi:10.1017/S0020818305050022
  • DeNardo, J. (1985). Power in numbers. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Diebold, F. X. (2006). Elements of forecasting (4th ed.). Cincinnati: South-Western College.
  • Dugan, L., & Chenoweth, E. (2012). Moving beyond deterrence: The effectiveness of raising the expected utility of abstaining from terrorism in Israel. American Sociological Review, 77(4), 597–624.
  • Easson, J. K., & Schmid, A. P. (2011). Appendix 2.1: 250-plus academic, governmental and intergovernmental definitions of terrorism. In A. P. Schmid (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of terrorism research (pp. 99–157). London: Routledge.
  • Ekici, N. (2006). Ethnic terrorism and the case of PKK. Newark, NJ: Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series (2nd ed). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1993). The effectiveness of antiterrorism policies: A vector-autoregression- intervention analysis. The American Political Science Review, 87(4), 829–844. doi:10.2307/2938817
  • Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (2011). The political economy of terrorism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T. (2019). What We have learned about terrorism since 9/11. Journal of Economic Literature, 57(2), 275–328. doi:10.1257/jel.20181444
  • Geerdink, F. (2016, December 12). Ankara bombing: PKK, TAK ties come under scrutiny again. Retrieved August 3, 2022, from Middle East Eye website: http://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/ankara-bombing-pkk-tak-ties-come-under-scrutiny-again
  • Ginkel, J., & Smith, A. (1999). So you say you want a revolution: A game theoretic explanation of revolution in repressive regimes. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(3), 291–316.
  • Göksel, N., & Mandıracı, B. (2016). New Turkey–PKK peace talks: An inevitability postponed. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 14(4), 59–64.
  • Gurcan, M. (2016). The Kurdistan freedom falcons: A profile of the arm’s-length proxy of the Kurdistan workers’ party. CTC Sentinel, 9(7), 24–27.
  • Hamilton, J D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Hoffman, B. (2017). Inside terrorism (3rd ed.). New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Hough, P. (2014). Understanding global security. New York: Routledge.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1968). Political order in changing societies. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Ilbiz, E. (2021). Electoral cost of the European union promoted norms: Erdogan’s counter-terrorism impasse. Global Affairs, 7(5), 695–710. doi:10.1080/23340460.2021.1948801
  • International Crisis Group. (2016). The human cost of the PKK conflict in Turkey: The Case of Sur (No. 80). Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/human-cost-pkk-conflict-turkey-case-sur
  • Iqbal, M., O’Brien, K. S., & Bliuc, A.-M. (2022). The relationship between existential anxiety, political efficacy, extrinsic religiosity and support for violent extremism in Indonesia. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 0(0), 1–9. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2022.2034221
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (2012). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. In John B. Guerard & William T. Ziemba (Eds.), World scientific handbook in financial economics series: Vol. 4. Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making (pp. 99–127). Singapore: World Scientific. doi:10.1142/9789814417358_0006
  • Kalyvas, S. N. (2006). The logic of violence in civil war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kattelman, K. T. (2020). Assessing success of the global war on terror: Terrorist attack frequency and the backlash effect. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 13(1), 67–86.
  • Kibris, A. (2011). Funerals and elections: The effects of terrorism on voting behavior in Turkey. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55(2), 220–247.
  • Konaev, M., & Kadercan, B. (2018, January 3). Old dogs, new tricks: Urban Warfare in Turkey’s war with the PKK. War on the Rocks. Retrieved from https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/old-dogs-new-tricks-urban-warfare-turkeys-war-pkk/
  • Kydd, A., & Walter, B. F. (2002). Sabotaging the peace: The politics of extremist violence. International Organization, 56(2), 263–296. doi:10.1162/002081802320005487
  • Leventoğlu, B. (2005). Social mobility and political transitions. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 17(4), 465–496.
  • Lucas, R. (2020). Taking to the streets: The Kurdistan workers’ party and the urbanization of insurgency. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 31(1), 61–86. doi:10.1080/09592318.2020.1672963
  • McCarthy, J. D., & Zald, M. N. (1977). Resource mobilization and social movements: A partial theory. American Journal of Sociology, 82(6), 1212–1241.
  • Neumayer, E., & Plumper, T. (2009). International terrorism and the clash of civilizations. British Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 711–734.
  • Onat, I., & Çubukçu, S. (2019). Unresolved conflict, urban insurgency and devastating consequences in Turkey between 2015 and 2016. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, 14(2), 164–182. doi:10.1080/18335330.2019.1617431
  • Otucu, F O. (2004). Severe ethnic violence: An integrated explanation of the Turkish-Kurdish case (Doctoral Dissertation, University of Kentucky). ProQuest Dissertations Publishing.
  • Ozdogan, A. (2005). Democracy for the New Iraq. The Journal of Turkish Weekly, 5, 1–5.
  • Ozdogan, A. (2008a). A model of terrorism: Strategic interactions and contextual details. Washington, DC: American University.
  • Ozdogan, A. (2008b). Social fragmental origins of terrorism: A research note. International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, 32(1), 111–119.
  • Ozdogan, A. (2021). A game theory model of terrorist mobilization: The effects of repressive and accommodative counterterrorism and club goods on terrorist decision making. Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 1–22. doi:10.1080/19434472.2021.1996435
  • Ozdogan, A., & Ozdogan, Z. (2007). An evaluation of the turkish amnesty Law of 2003. In S. Ozeren, I. Gunes, & D. Al-Badayneh (Eds.), Understanding terrorism: Analysis of sociological and psychological aspects (pp. 179–189). Amsterdam: IOS.
  • Ozdogan, Z. (2009). Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey (Ph.D., University of Delaware). University of Delaware, United States – Delaware. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/docview/304876794/abstract/D71E58F6A8F64F99PQ/1
  • Ozeren, S., Gunes, I. D., & Al-Badayneh, D. M. (2007). Understanding terrorism: Analysis of sociological and psychological aspects. Amsterdam: IOS Press.
  • Pape, R. (2006). Dying to win: The strategic logic of suicide terrorism. New York: Random House.
  • Plakoudas, S. (2018). Insurgency and counter-insurgency in Turkey: The new PKK. Cham: Palgrave.
  • Porta, D. D. (1992). Institutional responses to terrorism: The Italian case. Terrorism and Political Violence, 4(4), 151–170.
  • Ross, J. I., & Gurr, T. R. (1989). Why terrorism subsides: A comparative study of Canada and the United States. Comparative Politics, 21(4), 405–426. doi:10.2307/422005
  • Sandler, T., & Arce, D. G. (2003). Terrorism & game theory. Simulation & Gaming, 34(3), 319–337. doi:10.1177/1046878103255492
  • Schmid, A. P. (2011). The definition of terrorism. In A. P. Schmid (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of terrorism research (pp. 39–98). London: Routledge.
  • Sheehan, I. S. (2009). Has the global war on terror changed the terrorist threat? A time-series intervention analysis. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(8), 743–761. doi:10.1080/10576100903039270
  • Spaniel, W. (2019). Rational overreaction to terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(3), 786–810.
  • Stedman, S. J. (1997). Spoiler problems in peace processes. International Security, 22(2), 5–53. doi:10.2307/2539366.
  • Stein, A. (2016, March 23). Kurdish Militants and Turkey’s new urban insurgency. Retrieved August 3, 2022, from War on the Rocks website: https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/kurdish-militants-and-turkeys-new-urban-insurgency/
  • Tezcur, G. M. (2015). Ordinary people, extraordinary risks: Participation in an ethnic rebellion. American Political Science Review, 110, 247–264.
  • Unal. (2016). Terrorism versus insurgency: A conceptual analysis. Crime, Law and Social Change, 66(1), 21–57.
  • Unal, M. C. (2012). Counterterrorism in Turkey: Policy choices and policy effects toward the Kurdistan workers’ party (PKK). New York: Routledge.
  • Unal, M. C., & Cafnik Uludağ, P. (2020). Eradicating terrorism in asymmetric conflict: The role and essence of military deterrence. Terrorism and Political Violence, 0(0), 1–45. doi:10.1080/09546553.2020.1742113
  • Wilkinson, P. (1999). Politics, diplomacy and peace processes: Pathways out of terrorism? Terrorism and Political Violence, 11(4), 66–82. doi:10.1080/09546559908427532
  • Wilkinson, P. (2011). Terrorism versus democracy: The liberal state response. Florence: Taylor & Francis Group. Retrieved from http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/aul/detail.action?docID=652831

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.