1,331
Views
31
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Air Travel Demand Studies: A Review

航空旅行需求研究综述

&
Pages 29-49 | Published online: 19 Mar 2010

References

  • Abed , S. Y. , Ba-Fail , A. O. and Jasimuddin , S. M. 2001 . An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia . Journal of Air Transport Management , 7 ( 3 ) : 143 – 148 .
  • Abkowitz , M. and Tozzi , J. Modelling the demand for regional air service . Report No. 12180-3590 . 1986 . New York: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Civil Engineering
  • Abrahams , A. 2004 . “ Forecasting demand for air travel ” . In Demand analysis and capacity management: The air transport issues , London : University of Westminster .
  • Abrahams , M. 1983 . Service quality model of air travel demand: An empirical study . Transportation Research , 17 ( 5 ) : 385 – 393 .
  • Adrangi , B. , Chatrath , A. and Raffiee , K. 2001 . The demand for U.S. air transport service: A chaos and nonlinearity investigation . Transportation Research Part E , 37 ( 5 ) : 337 – 353 .
  • Agarwal , V. and Talley , W. K. 1985 . The demand for international air passenger service provided by U.S. air carriers . International Journal of Transport Economics , 12 ( 1 ) : 63 – 70 .
  • Air Transport Action Group . 2000 . The economic benefits of air transport , Geneva : Author .
  • Alamdari , F. E. and Black , I. G. 1992 . Passengers’ choice of airline under competition: The use of the logit model . Transport Reviews , 12 ( 2 ) : 153 – 170 .
  • Alekseev , K. P. G. , Caloba , L. P. and Seixas , J. M. A neural forecasting model for the air transport passenger demand . Paper presented at the 22nd International Symposium on Forecasting . Dublin, Ireland.
  • Alekseev , K. P. G. and Seixas , J. M. 2009 . A multivariate neural forecasting modeling for air transport—Preprocessed by decomposition: A Brazilian application . Journal of Air Transport Management , 15 ( 5 ) : 212 – 216 .
  • Alperovich , G. and Machnes , Y. 1994 . The role of wealth in the demand for international air travel . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 28 ( 2 ) : 163 – 173 .
  • Alwaked , A. A. F. 2005 . Estimating fare and expenditure elasticities of demand for air travel in the U.S. domestic market , Texas A&M University . Unpublished doctoral dissertation
  • Anderson , J. E. and Kraus , M. 1981 . Quality of service and the demand for air travel . The Review of Economics and Statistics , 63 ( 4 ) : 533 – 540 .
  • Andreoni, A., & Postorino, M. N. (2006). A multivariate ARIMA model to forecast air transport demand. Proceedings of the Association for European Transport and Contributors http://web.mit.edu/a_griner/MacData/afs.course.11/11.951/albacete/Other_Documents/Europe%20Transport%20Conference/applied_methods_in_tra/a_multivariate_ari1399.pdf (Accessed: 30 December 2008 ).
  • Asher , N. J. , Beazer , W. F. , Cox , W. A. , Muth , R. F. , Oi , W. Y. and Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington VA Economic and Political Studies Division . Demand analysis for air travel by supersonic transport, Vol. 2 . Report No. 0013256 . 1966, December . Arlington, VA: Institute for Defense Analyses
  • Bafail , A. O. , Abed , S. Y. and Jasimuddin , S. M. 2002 . Comparison of some forecasting models for air travel movements at Riyadh international airport, Saudi Arabia . Alexandria Engineering Journal , 41 ( 1 ) : 83 – 91 .
  • Bafail , A. O. , Abed , S. Y. , Jasimuddin , S. M. and Jeddah , S. A. 2000 . The determinants of domestic air travel demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia . Journal of Air Transportation World Wide , 5 ( 2 ) : 72 – 86 .
  • Battersby , B. D. July 2002 . A model of demand for regional air travel in New South Wales, Australia by 2008 , July , Seattle, WA : Paper presented at the Air Transport Research Society World Conference .
  • Battersby , B. D. and Oczkowski , E. 2001 . An econometric analysis of the demand for domestic air travel in Australia . International Journal of Transport Economics , 28 ( 2 ) : 193 – 204 .
  • Battersby , B. , Oczkowski , E. , University , C. S. and Commerce , F. O. 2005 . Multi-class demand estimation with capacity constraints: Regional air-travel in Australia (Working Paper No. 17/05) , Bathurst, New South Wales, , Australia : Faculty of Commerce, Charles Sturt University .
  • Behbehani , R. and Kanafani , A. K. 1980 . Demand and supply models of air traffic in international markets (Working Paper) , Berkeley, CA : Institute of Transportation Studies .
  • Bender , A. R. and Stephenson , F. J. 1998 . Contemporary issues affecting the demand for business air travel in the United States . Journal of Air Transport Management , 4 ( 2 ) : 99 – 109 .
  • Bhadra , D. 2003 . Demand for air travel in the United States: Bottom-up econometric estimation and implications for forecasts by origin and destination pairs . Journal of Air Transportation , 8 ( 2 ) : 19 – 56 .
  • Bhadra , D. and Kee , J. 2008 . Structure and dynamics of the core US air travel markets: A basic empirical analysis of domestic passenger demand . Journal of Air Transport Management , 14 ( 1 ) : 27 – 39 .
  • Bieger , T. , Wittmer , A. and Laesser , C. 2007 . What is driving the continued growth in demand for air travel? Customer value of air transport . Journal of Air Transport Management , 13 ( 1 ) : 31 – 36 .
  • Blalock , G. , Kadiyali , V. and Simon , D. H. 2007 . The impact of post-9/11 airport security measures on the demand for air travel . The Journal of Law and Economics , 50 ( 4 ) : 731 – 755 .
  • Blunk , S. S. , Clark , D. E. and McGibany , J. M. 2006 . Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel . Applied Economics , 38 ( 4 ) : 363 – 370 .
  • Bower , L. L. 1976 . Elasticity of air travel demand with respect to airport access cost . Transportation Research , 10 : 193 – 199 .
  • Brons , M. , Pels , E. , Nijkamp , P. and Rietveld , P. 2002 . Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: A meta-analysis . Journal of Air Transport Management , 8 ( 3 ) : 165 – 175 .
  • Brooke , A. S. , Caves , R. E. and Pitfield , D. E. 1994 . Methodology for predicting European short-haul air transport demand from regional airports: An application to East Midlands International Airport . Journal of Air Transport Management , 1 ( 1 ) : 37 – 46 .
  • Brown , S. L. and Watkins , W. S. 1968 . The demand for air travel: A regression study of time-series and cross-sectional data in the US domestic market . Highway Research Record , 213 : 21 – 34 .
  • Carson , R. T. , Cenesizoglu , T. and Parker , R. June 2005 . Aggregation issues in forecasting aggregate demand: An application to us commercial air travel , June , Paper presented at the AMA Advanced Research Techniques Forum, Coeur d’ Alene, ID .
  • Cascetta , E. , Biggiero , L. , Nuzzolo , A. and Russo , F. 1995 . “ Passenger and freight demand models for the Italian national transportation system ” . In Proceedings of the 7th World Conference Transport Research , Edited by: Hensher , D. , King , J. and Oum , T. Oxford, , UK : Pergamon .
  • Castelli, L., Pesenti, R., & Ukovich, W. (2003). An airline-based multilevel analysis of airfare elasticity for passenger demand. Proceedings of the 7th ATRS Conference http://eurocontrol.int/care-innov/gallery/content/public/docs/projects2002/ircs/documentation/7ATRS.pdf (Accessed: 30 December 2008 ).
  • Chang , H. J. 1995 . An integrated market analysis of the international airline industry , Washington University . Unpublished master's thesis
  • Chin , A. T. H. 2002 . Impact of frequent flyer programs on the demand for air travel . Journal of Air Transportation , 7 ( 2 ) : 53 – 86 .
  • Cline , R. C. , Ruhl , T. A. , Gosling , G. D. and Gillen , D. W. 1998 . Air transportation demand forecasts in emerging market economies: A case study of the Kyrgyz Republic in the former Soviet Union . Journal of Air Transport Management , 4 ( 1 ) : 11 – 23 .
  • Crouch , G. I. The effects of income & price on international tourism demand . Management Paper 38 . 1991 . Monash University, Graduate School of Management, Melbourne, Australia
  • Cunningham , S. W. and De Haan , A. R. C. 2006 . Long-term forecasting for sustainable development: Air travel demand for 2050 . International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development , 5 ( 3 ) : 297 – 314 .
  • Dargay , J. and Hanly , M. The determinants of the demand for international air travel to and from the UK . Paper presented at the 9th World Conference on Transport Research . May 2001 , Edinburgh, Scotland.
  • Dennis , N. P. S. 2002 . Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport . Journal of Air Transport Management , 8 ( 5 ) : 313 – 324 .
  • Emiray , E. and Rodríguez , G. 2003 . Evaluating time series models in short and long-term forecasting of Canadian air passenger data (Working Paper No. 0306E) , Ontario, , Canada : Department of Economics, University of Ottawa .
  • Federal Aviation Administration . 2007 . FAA aerospace forecasts: Fiscal years 2007–2020 , Washington, DC : Author .
  • Fleming , K. and Ghobrial , A. 1994 . An analysis of the determinants of regional air travel demand . Transportation Planning and Technology , 18 ( 1 ) : 37 – 44 .
  • Fridström , L. and Thune-Larsen , H. 1989 . An econometric air travel demand model for the entire conventional domestic network: The case of Norway . Transportation Research , 23 ( 3 ) : 213 – 223 .
  • Geslin , C. 2006 . Pricing and competition in US airline markets: Changes in air travel demand since 2000 , Cambridge, MA : Unpublished master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology .
  • Ghobrial , A. 1992 . An aggregate demand model for domestic airlines . Journal of Advanced Transportation , 26 ( 2 ) : 105 – 119 .
  • Ghobrial , A. and Kanafani , A. 1995 . Quality-of-service model of intercity air-travel demand . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 121 ( 2 ) : 135 – 140 .
  • Gillen , D. and Morrison , W. 2003 . Bundling, integration and the delivered price of air travel: Are low cost carriers full service competitors? . Journal of Air Transport Management , 9 ( 1 ) : 15 – 23 .
  • Gillen , D. W. , Morrison , W. G. and Stewart , C. 2003 . Air travel demand elasticities: Concepts, issues and measurement , Department of Finance, Government of Canada . (Final Report)
  • Graham , A. 2000 . Demand for leisure air travel and limits to growth . Journal of Air Transport Management , 6 ( 2 ) : 109 – 118 .
  • Graham , A. 2006 . Have the major forces driving leisure airline traffic changed? . Journal of Air Transport Management , 12 ( 1 ) : 14 – 20 .
  • Grosche , T. , Rothlauf , F. and Heinzl , A. 2007 . Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation . Journal of Air Transport Management , 13 ( 4 ) : 175 – 183 .
  • Haney , D. G. Review of aviation forecasting methodology . Report No. DOT-40176-6 . 1975 . Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation
  • Hanlon , J. P. 1976 . Econometric estimates of the demand for air travel: Analysis of business travel over routes to the United (Departmental Publication No. 49) , Birmingham : United Kingdom: University of Birmingham .
  • Hartley , P. and Trengove , C. 1990 . East-West Airlines’ Sydney-Melbourne service: Market expansion or demand diversion? . The Economic Record , 66 ( 3 ) : 203 – 220 .
  • Harvey , D. A. 1951 . Airline passenger traffic pattern within the United States . Journal of Air Law and Commerce , 18 : 157
  • Hensher , D. A. 2002 . Determining passenger potential for a regional airline hub at Canberra International Airport . Journal of Air Transport Management , 8 ( 5 ) : 301 – 311 .
  • Hutchinson , B. G. 1993 . Analyses of Canadian air travel demands . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 119 ( 2 ) : 301 – 316 .
  • Inglada , V. and Rey , B. 2004 . Spanish air travel and September 11 terrorist attacks: A note . Journal of Air Transport Management , 10 : 441 – 443 .
  • Ippolito , R. 1981 . Estimating airline demand with quality of service variables . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 15 : 7 – 15 .
  • Ito , H. and Lee , D. 2005 . Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand . Journal of Economics and Business , 57 ( 1 ) : 75 – 95 .
  • Jacobson , I. Demand modeling of passenger air travel . Report No. CR-157469 . 1970 . Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • Jorge-Calderón , J. D. 1997 . A demand model for scheduled airline services on international European routes . Journal of Air Transport Management , 3 ( 1 ) : 23 – 35 .
  • Jung , J. M. and Fuji , E. T. 1976 . The price elasticity of demand for air travel: Some new evidence . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 10 ( 3 ) : 257 – 262 .
  • Kaemmerle , K. C. 1991 . Estimating the demand for small community air service . Transportation Research A: General , 25 ( 2–3 ) : 101 – 112 .
  • Kanafani , A. 1980 . Price elasticities of nonbusiness air travel demand . Transportation , 106 ( 2 ) : 217 – 225 .
  • Karlaftis , M. G. 1994 . Critical review and analysis of air travel demand forecasting models , FL : University of Miami . Unpublished master's thesis
  • Karlaftis , M. G. and Papastavrou , J. D. 1998 . Demand characteristics for a charter air-travel . International Journal of Transport Economics , 25 : 19 – 36 .
  • Karlaftis , M. G. , Zografos , K. G. , Papastavrou , J. D. and Charnes , J. M. 1996 . Methodological framework for air-travel demand forecasting . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 122 ( 2 ) : 96 – 104 .
  • Kawad , S. and Prevedouros , P. D. 1995 . Forecasting air travel arrivals: Model development and application at the Honolulu International Airport . Transportation Research Record , 1506 : 18 – 25 .
  • Kim , K. W. , Seo , H. Y. and Kim , Y. 2003 . Forecast of domestic air travel demand change by opening the high speed rail . KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering , 7 ( 5 ) : 603 – 609 .
  • Kroes , E. P. , Bradley , M. A. and Veldhuis , J. 1994 . Integrated analysis of air travel demand in Europe . PTRC Publications , : 139 – 139 .
  • Lai , S. L. and Lu , W. L. 2005 . Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA . Journal of Air Transport Management , 11 ( 6 ) : 455 – 458 .
  • Lansing , J. B. and Blood , D. M. 1958 . A cross-section analysis of non-business air travel . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 53 : 928 – 947 .
  • Lansing , J. B. , Liu , J. C. and Suits , D. B. 1961 . An analysis of interurban air travel . The Quarterly Journal of Economics , 75 : 87 – 95 .
  • Lave , L. 1971 . The demand for intercity passenger transportation . Journal of Regional Sciences , 12 ( 1 ) : 71 – 84 .
  • Leaming , G. F. and De Gennaro , N. 1974 . City characteristics in the development of an air travel forecasting model: The case of Tucson, Arizona . Journal of Travel Research , 12 ( 3 ) : 7 – 9 .
  • Lim , C. and McAleer , M. 2002 . Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia . Tourism Management , 23 : 389 – 396 .
  • Liu , H. and Zeng , J. 2007 . Airline passenger fatality and the demand for air travel . Applied Economics , 39 ( 14 ) : 1773 – 1781 .
  • Long , W. H. 1969 . Airline service and the demand for intercity air travel . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 13 : 287 – 299 .
  • Long , D. , Wingrove , E. , Lee , D. , Gribko , J. , Hemm , R. and Kostiuk , P. 1999 . A method for evaluating air carrier operational strategies and forecasting air traffic with flight delay , McLean, VA : Logistics Management Institute .
  • Mason , K. J. 2005 . Observations of fundamental changes in the demand for aviation services . Journal of Air Transport Management , 11 ( 1 ) : 19 – 25 .
  • Mayhill , G. R. 1953 . A critique of the CAA studies on air traffic generation in the United States . Journal of Air Low and Commerce , 20 : 158 – 177 .
  • Melville , J. A. 1998 . An empirical model of the demand for international air travel for the Caribbean region . International Journal of Transport Economics , 25 : 313 – 336 .
  • Mize , J. L. 1968 . An econometric analysis of the demand for airline passenger transportation, domestic rates , Atlanta, GA : Georgia State University .
  • Mutti , J. and Murai , Y. 1977 . Airline travel on the North Atlantic: Is profitability possible? . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 11 : 45 – 53 .
  • Njegovan , N. 2005 . A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK . Journal of Forecasting , 24 ( 6 ) : 421 – 432 .
  • Njegovan , N. 2006 . Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach . Journal of Air Transport Management , 12 ( 1 ) : 33 – 39 .
  • Oberhausen , P. J. and Koppelman , F. S. 1982 . Time series analysis of intercity air travel modes . Transportation Research Record , 840 : 15 – 21 .
  • O'Connor , K. 2003 . Global air travel: Toward concentration or dispersal? . Journal of Transport Geography , 11 ( 2 ) : 83 – 92 .
  • Ortúzar , J. D. and Simonetti , C. 2008 . Modelling the demand for medium distance air travel with the mixed data estimation method . Journal of Air Transport Management , 14 ( 6 ) : 297 – 303 .
  • Oum , T. H. , Waters , W. G. II and Yong , J. S. 1992 . Concepts of price elasticities of transport demand and recent empirical estimates: An interpretative survey . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 26 : 139 – 169 .
  • Papastavrou , J. D. and Charnes , J. M. 1996 . Methodological framework for air-travel demand forecasting . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 122 : 96 – 104 .
  • Pitfield , D. E. 1993 . Predicting air-transport demand . Environment and Planning A , 25 : 459 – 466 .
  • Poore , J. W. 1993 . Forecasting the demand for air transportation services . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 19 ( 5 ) : 22 – 34 .
  • Postorino , M. N. A comparison among different approaches for the evaluation of the air traffic demand elasticity . Proceedings of Sustainable Planning and Development Conference . WIT Press .
  • Postorino , M. N. and Russo , F. Time series uni-mode or random utility multimode approach in national passenger models: The impact on the Italian air demand forecast . Proceedings of the European Transport Conference (PTRC) . Cambridge.
  • Proussaloglou , K. and Koppelman , F. 1995 . Air carrier demand: An analysis of market share determinants . Transportation , 22 ( 4 ) : 371 – 388 .
  • Proussaloglou , K. and Koppelman , F. S. 1999 . The choice of air carrier, flight, and fare class . Journal of Air Transport Management , 5 ( 4 ) : 193 – 201 .
  • Rengaraju , V. R. and Arasan , V. T. 1992 . Modeling for air travel demand . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 118 : 371
  • Roy , J. and Filiatrault , P. 1998 . The impact of new business practices and information technologies on business air travel demand . Journal of Air Transport Management , 4 ( 2 ) : 77 – 86 .
  • Saad , M. 1983 . Demand for air passenger travel in Australia . Proceedings of the Eighth Australasian Transport Research Forum , 2 : 605 – 623 .
  • Sarames , G. 1972 . World air travel demand, 1950–1980 . Journal of Travel Research , 11 ( 4 ) : 8 – 12 .
  • Schreffler , E. N. , Costa , T. and Moyer , C. B. 1996 . Evaluating travel and air quality cost-effectiveness of transportation demand management projects . Transportation Research Record , 1520 : 11 – 18 .
  • Sen , A. 1985 . Examining air travel demand using time series data . Journal of Transportation Engineering , 111 ( 2 ) : 155 – 161 .
  • Shankar , A. , Sikdar , P. and Khanna , S. 1988 . Domestic air travel demand in India and strategies for future , New Delhi : Tata McGraw-Hill .
  • Shaw , S. and Thomas , C. 2006 . Discussion note social and cultural dimensions of air travel demand: Hyper-mobility in the UK? . Journal of Sustainable Tourism , 14 ( 2 ) : 209 – 215 .
  • Straszheim , M. R. 1978 . Airline demand functions in the North Atlantic and their pricing implications . Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , 12 ( 2 ) : 179 – 195 .
  • Swartzwelder , J. D. 1967 . The dynamics of growth of demand for U.S. domestic air passenger travel , George Washington University .
  • Talley , K. W. and Eckroade , W. R. 1984 . Airline passenger demand in monopoly flight segments of a single airline under deregulation . Transportation Journal , 24 ( 2 ) : 73 – 79 .
  • Thomet , M. A. and Sultan , S. M. 1979 . Traffic forecasting for the New Riyadh International Airport , Montreal, , Canada : International Civil Aviation Organization .
  • Tretheway , M. W. and Oum , T. H. 1992 . Airline economics: foundations for strategy and policy , Canada : Centre for Transportation Studies, University of British Columbia .
  • Tsekeris , T. 2009 . Dynamic analysis of air travel demand in competitive island markets . Journal of Air Transport Management , 15 ( 6 ) : 267 – 273 .
  • Uddin , W. , McCullough , B. F. and Crawford , M. M. 1985 . Methodology for forecasting air travel and airport expansion needs . Transportation Research Record , 1025 : 7 – 14 .
  • Verleger , P. K. Jr. 1972 . Models of the demand for air transportation . The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science , 3 ( 2 ) : 437 – 457 .
  • Wei , W. and Hansen , M. 2006 . An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network . Transportation Research Part A , 40 ( 10 ) : 841 – 851 .
  • Young , K. H. 1972 . A synthesis of time-series and cross-section analyses: Demand for air transportation service . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 67 ( 339 ) : 560 – 566 .
  • Zuñiga , S. , Kanafani , A. and Olivera , A. 1978 . Forecasting airport traffic: Mexico City as a case study . Transportation Research Record , 723 : 24 – 39 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.