Probabilistic forecasting and the reshaping of flood risk management

References

• Barsugli, J. J., Vogel, J. M., Kaatz, L., Smith, J. B., Waage, M., & Anderson, C. J. (2012). Two faces of uncertainty: Climate science and water utility planning methods. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 138(5), 389–395. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000188
   Google Scholar
• Bowler, N. E., Arribas, A., Mylne, K. R., Robertson, K. B., & Beare, S. E. (2008). The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134(632), 703–722. doi:10.1002/qj.234
   Google Scholar
• Buizza, R., Asensio, H., Balint, G., Bartholmes, J., Bliefernicht, J., Bogner, K., … Vincendon, B. (2007). EURORISK/PREVIEW report on the technical quality, functional quality and forecast value of meteorological and hydrological forecasts. Shinfield Park, Reading, UK: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Retrieved from http://old.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm/501-600/tm516.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Casman, E. A., Morgan, M. G., & Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). Mixed levels of uncertainty in complex policy models. Risk Analysis, 19(1), 33–42. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00384.x
   Google Scholar
• Cloke, H. L., & Pappenberger, F. (2009). Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. Journal of Hydrology, 375(3–4), 613–626. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005
   Google Scholar
• Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S. J., Schaake, J., Thielen, J., & Ramos, M.-H. (Eds.). (2013). Hydrological ensemble prediction systems: Preface. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 1–4. doi:10.1002/hyp.9679
   Google Scholar
• Collins, M. (2007). Ensembles and probabilities: A new era in the prediction of climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), 1957–1970. doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2068
   Google Scholar
• Corner, A., Whitmarsh, L., & Xenias, D. (2012). Uncertainty, scepticism and attitudes towards climate change: Biased assimilation and attitude polarisation. Climatic Change, 114(3–4), 463–478. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0424-6
   Google Scholar
• Curry, J. A., & Webster, P. J. (2011). Climate science and the uncertainty monster. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(12), 1667–1682. doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3139.1
   Google Scholar
• Dale, M., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Laeger, S., & Taylor, S. (2014). Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative risk-based approach. Natural Hazards, 70(1), 159–172. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z
   Google Scholar
• De Franco, C., & Meyer, C. O. (2011). Introduction: The challenges of prevention. In C. O. Meyer (Ed.), Forecasting, warning and responding to transnational risks (pp. 1–19). Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan.
   Google Scholar
• Dedieu, F. (2010). Alerts and catastrophes: The case of the 1999 storm in France, a treacherous risk. Sociologie Du Travail, 52(Supplement 1), e1–e21. doi:10.1016/j.soctra.2010.06.001
   Google Scholar
• Demeritt, D., & Nobert, S. (2011). Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union. In C. O. Meyer & C. de Franco (Eds.), Forecasting, warning and responding to transnational risks (pp. 127–147). Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan.
   Google Scholar
• Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., & Pappenberger, F. (2010). Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 17(2), 209–222. doi:10.1002/met.194
   Google Scholar
• Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. L., & Pappenberger, F. (2013). The European flood alert system and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 147–157. doi:10.1002/hyp.9419
   Google Scholar
• Dietrich, J., Denhard, M., & Schumann, A. H. (2009). Can ensemble forecasts improve the reliability of flood alerts? Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2(4), 232–242. doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01039.x
   Google Scholar
• Faulkner, H., Parker, D., Green, C., & Beven, K. (2007). Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 36(8), 692–704. doi:10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[692:DATDTC]2.0.CO;2
   Google Scholar
• Frick, J., & Hegg, C. (2011). Can end-users’ flood management decision making be improved by information about forecast uncertainty? Atmospheric Research, 100(2–3), 296–303. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.006
   Google Scholar
• Gopalakrishnan, C. (2013). Water and disasters: A review and analysis of policy aspects. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 29(2), 250–271. doi:10.1080/07900627.2012.756133
   Google Scholar
• Handmer, J., & Proudley, B. (2007). Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts. Environmental Hazards, 7(2), 79–87. doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.002
   Google Scholar
• Joslyn, S., & Savelli, S. (2010). Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty. Meteorological Applications, 17(2), 180–195. doi:10.1002/met.190
   Google Scholar
• Joslyn, S. L., & LeClerc, J. E. (2012). Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error. Journal of Experimental Psychology: applied, 18(1), 126–140. doi:10.1037/a0025185
   Google Scholar
• Joslyn, S., Savelli, S., & Nadav-Greenberg, L. (2011). Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: Anchoring effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 17(4), 342–353. doi:10.1037/a0025901
   Google Scholar
• Juston, J. M., Kauffeldt, A., Montano, B. Q., Seibert, J., Beven, K. J., & Westerberg, I. K. (2013). Smiling in the rain: Seven reasons to be positive about uncertainty in hydrological modelling. Hydrological Processes, 27(7), 1117–1122. doi:10.1002/hyp.9625
   Google Scholar
• Lumbroso, D., & von Christierson, B. (2009). Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings: Literature review of international material. Bristol, UK: Environment Agency.
   Google Scholar
• Marimo, P., Kaplan, T. R., Mylne, K., & Sharpe, M. (2012). Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts. Retrieved from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38287/
   Google Scholar
• Marx, S. M., Weber, E. U., Orlove, B. S., Leiserowitz, A., Krantz, D. H., Roncoli, C., & Phillips, J. (2007). Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information. Global Environmental Change, 17(1), 47–58. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.10.004
   Google Scholar
• Massey, A., & Rentoul, J. (2007). Innovative, flexible and creative policy making. In H. Bochel & S. Duncan (Eds.), Making policy in theory and practice (pp. 65–85). Bristol, UK: The Policy Press.
   Google Scholar
• McCarthy, S., Tunstall, S., Parker, D., Faulkner, H., & Howe, J. (2007). Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood. Environmental Hazards, 7(3), 179–192. doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.06.003
   Google Scholar
• Meyer, C. O., & de Franco, C. (2011). Conclusion: New perspectives for theorising and addressing transnational risks. In C. O. Meyer & C. de Franco (Eds.), Forecasting, warning and responding to transnational risks (pp. 241–257). Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan.
   Google Scholar
• Michaels, S., & Tyre, A. J. (2012). How indeterminism shapes ecologists’ contributions to managing socio-ecological systems. Conservation Letters, 5(4), 289–295. doi:10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00241.x
   Google Scholar
• Morgan, M. G. (1998). Uncertainty analysis in risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 4(1), 25–39.
   Google Scholar
• Morss, R. E., Lazo, J. K., & Demuth, J. L. (2010). Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: Results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication. Meteorological Applications, 17(2), 149–162. doi:10.1002/met.196
   Google Scholar
• Moss, R. H. (2007). Improving information for managing an uncertain future climate. Global Environmental Change, 17(1), 4–7. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.002
   Google Scholar
• Murphy, A. H. (1993). What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 281–293. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0281:WIAGFA>2.0.CO;2
   Google Scholar
• National Research Council. (2006). Completing the forecast: Characterizing and communicating uncertainty for better decisions using weather and climate forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nobert, S., Demeritt, D., & Cloke, H. (2010). Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: Lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3(1), 72–79. doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01056.x
   Google Scholar
• Pagano, T. C., Shrestha, D. L., Wang, Q. J., Robertson, D., & Hapuarachchi, P. (2013). Ensemble dressing for hydrological applications. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 106–116. doi:10.1002/hyp.9313
   Google Scholar
• Pappenberger, F., & Beven, K. J. (2006). Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis. Water Resources Research, 42(5), W05302. doi:10.1029/2005WR004820
   Google Scholar
• Pappenberger, F., & Brown, J. D. (2013). HP today: On the pursuit of (im)perfection in flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 162–163. doi:10.1002/hyp.9465
   Google Scholar
• Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Persson, A., & Demeritt, D. (2011). On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: Curse or blessing? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(7), 2391–2400. doi:10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011
   Google Scholar
• Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., van Andel, S. J., & Alfieri, L. (2013). Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: Expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 132–146. doi:10.1002/hyp.9253
   Google Scholar
• Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., & Del Medico, M. (2011). The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: Analysing a decade of forecasts of the european flood alert system. Hydrological Processes, 25(7), 1091–1113. doi:10.1002/hyp.7772
   Google Scholar
• Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Tunstall, S. M., Tapsell, S. M., & Parker, D. J. (2000). The benefits of flood warnings: Real but elusive, and politically significant. Water and Environment Journal, 14(1), 7–14. doi:10.1111/j.1747-6593.2000.tb00219.x
   Google Scholar
• Pidgeon, N., & Fischhoff, B. (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks. Nature Climate Change, 1(1), 35–41. doi:10.1038/nclimate1080
   Google Scholar
• Ramos, M.-H., Mathevet, T., Thielen, J., & Pappenberger, F. (2010). Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: Mission impossible? Meteorological Applications, 17(2), 223–235. doi:10.1002/met.202
   Google Scholar
• Ramos, M. H., van Andel, S. J., & Pappenberger, F. (2013). Do probabilistic forecasts lead To Better decisions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(6), 2219–2232. doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, D. S. (2000). Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126(563), 649–667. doi:10.1002/qj.49712656313
   Google Scholar
• Rothstein, H., & Downer, J. (2012). Renewing DEFRA’: Exploring the emergence of risk-based policymaking in UK central government. Public Administration, 90(3), 781–799. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9299.2011.01999.x
   Google Scholar
• Roulin, E. (2007). Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11(2), 725–737. doi:10.5194/hess-11-725-2007
   Google Scholar
• Roulston, M. S., & Kaplan, T. R. (2009). A laboratory-based study of understanding of uncertainty in 5-day site-specific temperature forecasts. Meteorological Applications, 16(2), 237–244. doi:10.1002/met.113
   Google Scholar
• Schumann, A. H., Wang, Y., & Dietrich, J. (2011). Framing uncertainties in flood forecasting with ensembles. In A. H. Schumann (Ed.), Flood risk assessment and management (pp. 53–76). Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Stephens, E., & Cloke, H. (2014). Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). The Geographical Journal, doi: 10.1111/geoj.12103
   Google Scholar
• United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. (2012). A resilient future: UNISDR statement on zero draft of the outcome document of the UN conference on sustainable development (Rio + 20) “The future we want.” Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.unisdr.org/files/24941_20120124unisdrstatement.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Werner, M., Cranston, M., Harrison, T., Whitfield, D., & Schellekens, J. (2009). Recent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and Scotland. Meteorological Applications, 16(1), 13–22. doi:10.1002/met.124
   Google Scholar
• Wilks, D. S. (1997). Forecast value: Prescriptive decision studies. In R. W. Katz & A. H. Murphy (Eds.), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts (pp. 109–145). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Zappa, M., Fundel, F., & Jaun, S. (2013). A ‘peak-box’ approach for supporting interpretation and verification of operational ensemble peak-flow forecasts: Supporting ensemble peak-flow forecasts. Hydrological Processes, 27(1), 117–131. doi:10.1002/hyp.9521
   Google Scholar
• Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Richardson, D., & Mylne, K. (2002). The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 73–83. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0073:TEVOEB>2.3.CO;2
   Google Scholar