Quantification of model form uncertainty in the calculation of solar diffuse irradiation on inclined surfaces for building energy simulation

References

• ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). 2009. ASHRAE Handbook Fundamentals. Atlanta, GA: ASHRAE.
   Google Scholar
• ASME (The American Society of Mechanical Engineers). 2009. ASME V&V 20-2009: Standard for Verification and Validation in Computational Fluid Dynamics and Heat Transfer. New York: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
   Google Scholar
• Bedford, T., and Roger M. Cooke. 2001. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Chen, Wei, Ying Xiong, Kwok-Leung Tsui, and Shuchun Wang. 2008. “A Design-Driven Validation Approach Using Bayesian Prediction Models.” Journal of Mechanical Design 130 (2): 1–12. doi: 10.1115/1.2809439
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke, Roger M. 2013. “Uncertainty Analysis Comes to Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change … and Conversely.” Climatic Change 117 (3): 467–479. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0634-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• David, Mathieu, Philippe Lauret, and John Boland. 2013. “Evaluating Tilted Plane Models for Solar Radiation Using Comprehensive Testing Procedures, at a Southern Hemisphere Location.” Renewable Energy 51: 124–131. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.08.074
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Wit, Sten, and Godfried Augenbroe. 2002. “Analysis of Uncertainty in Building Design Evaluations and Its Implications.” Energy and Buildings 34 (9): 951–958. doi: 10.1016/S0378-7788(02)00070-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deru, Michael, Kristin Field, Daniel Studer, Kyle Benne, Brent Griffith, Paul Torcellini, Bing Liu, et al. 2011. US Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of the National Building Stock. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
   Google Scholar
• Diez-Mediavilla, M., A. de Miguel, and J. Bilbao. 2005. “Measurement and Comparison of Diffuse Solar Irradiance Models on Inclined Surfaces in Valladolid (Spain).” Energy Conversion and Management 46 (13–14): 2075–2092. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2004.10.023
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Domínguez-Muñoz, Fernando, Brian Anderson, José M. Cejudo-López, and Antonio Carrillo-Andrés. 2010. “Uncertainty in the Thermal Conductivity of Insulation Materials.” Energy and Buildings 42 (11): 2159–2168. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2010.07.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• EnergyPlus. 2012. “Energyplus Engineering Reference.” Accessed November 26. http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/energyplus_documentation.cfm.
   Google Scholar
• Evseev, Efim G., and Avraham I. Kudish. 2009. “The Assessment of Different Models to Predict the Global Solar Radiation on a Surface Tilted to the South.” Solar Energy 83 (3): 377–388. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2008.08.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gueymard, Christian. 1987. “An Anisotropic Solar Irradiance Model for Tilted Surfaces and Its Comparison with Selected Engineering Algorithms.” Solar Energy 38 (5): 367–386. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(87)90009-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gueymard, Christian A. 2009. “Direct and Indirect Uncertainties in the Prediction of Tilted Irradiance for Solar Engineering Applications.” Solar Energy 83 (3): 432–444. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2008.11.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Helton, J. C., and F. J. Davis. 2003. “Latin Hypercube Sampling and the Propagation of Uncertainty in Analyses of Complex Systems.” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 81 (1): 23–69. doi: 10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00058-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Helton, Jon C., Clifford W. Hansen, and Cédric J. Sallaberry. 2012. “Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 107: 44–63. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.07.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heo, Yeonsook, Godfried Augenbroe, and Ruchi Choudhary. 2012. “Quantitative Risk Management for Energy Retrofit Projects.” Journal of Building Performance Simulation 6 (4): 257–268. doi: 10.1080/19401493.2012.706388
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hills, Richard G., and Kevin J. Dowding. 2008. “Multivariate Approach to the Thermal Challenge Problem.” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 197 (29–32): 2442–2456. doi: 10.1016/j.cma.2007.09.027
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hills, R. G., K. J. Dowding, and L. Swiler. 2008. “Thermal Challenge Problem: Summary.” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 197 (29–32): 2490–2495. doi: 10.1016/j.cma.2007.07.032
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Igawa, Norio, Yasuko Koga, Tomoko Matsuzawa, and Hiroshi Nakamura. 2004. “Models of Sky Radiance Distribution and Sky Luminance Distribution.” Solar Energy 77 (2): 137–157. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2004.04.016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Judkoff, R., D. N. Wortman, and J. Burch. 1983. Empirical Validation Using Data from the SERI Class-A Validation House. Golden, CO: Solar Energy Research Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Kambezidis, H. D., B. E. Psiloglou, and C. Gueymard. 1994. “Measurements and Models for Total Solar Irradiance on Inclined Surface in Athens, Greece.” Solar Energy 53 (2): 177–185. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(94)90479-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kennedy, Marc C., and Anthony O'Hagan. 2001. “Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology) 63 (3): 425–464. doi: 10.1111/1467-9868.00294
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, Benjamin D., Yuming Sun, Huafen Hu, Godfried Augenbroe, and Christiaan J. J. Paredis. 2012. “A Framework for Generating Stochastic Meteorological Years for Risk-Conscious Design of Buildings.” Paper presented at the Proceedings of IBPSA-USA 2012, Madison, Wisconsin.
   Google Scholar
• Lee, Benjamin D., Yuming Sun, Godfried Augenbroe, and Christiaan J. J. Paredis. 2013. “Towards Better Prediction of Building Performance: A Workbench to Analyze Uncertainty in Building Simulation.” Paper presented at the Proceedings of Building Simulation 2013, Chambery, France.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, B., and R. Jordan. 1961. “Daily Insolation on Surfaces Tilted Towards Equator.” ASHRAE Journal 3: 53–59.
   Google Scholar
• Loutzenhiser, P. G., H. Manz, C. Felsmann, P. A. Strachan, T. Frank, and G. M. Maxwell. 2007. “Empirical Validation of Models to Compute Solar Irradiance on Inclined Surfaces for Building Energy Simulation.” Solar Energy 81 (2): 254–267. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2006.03.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Macdonald, I. A. 2002. “Quantifying the Effects of Uncertainty in Building Simulation.” University of Strathclyde.
   Google Scholar
• Macdonald, Iain, and Paul Strachan. 2001. “Practical Application of Uncertainty Analysis.” Energy and Buildings 33 (3): 219–227. doi: 10.1016/S0378-7788(00)00085-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Muneer, Tariq. 2004. Solar Radiation and Daylight Models. Oxford: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Noorian, Ali Mohammad, Isaac Moradi, and Gholam Ali Kamali. 2008. “Evaluation of 12 Models to Estimate Hourly Diffuse Irradiation on Inclined Surfaces.” Renewable Energy 33 (6): 1406–1412. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2007.06.027
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NRC. 2012. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
   Google Scholar
• Oberkampf, William L., and Christopher J. Roy. 2010. Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing. New York: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511760396
   Google Scholar
• Oberkampf, W. L., T. G. Trucano, and C. Hirsch. 2003. “Verification, Validation, and Predictive Capability in Computational Engineering and Physics.” Applied Mechanics Reviews 57 (5): 345–384. doi: 10.1115/1.1767847
   Google Scholar
• Palyvos, J. A. 2008. “A Survey of Wind Convection Coefficient Correlations for Building Envelope Energy Systems’ Modeling.” Applied Thermal Engineering 28 (8–9): 801–808. doi: 10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2007.12.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perez, Richard, Pierre Ineichen, Robert Seals, Joseph Michalsky, and Ronald Stewart. 1990. “Modeling Daylight Availability and Irradiance Components from Direct and Global Irradiance.” Solar Energy 44 (5): 271–289. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(90)90055-H
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Qian, Peter, and C. F. J. Wu. 2008. “Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Integrating Low-Accuracy and High-Accuracy Experiments.” Technometrics 50 (2): 192–204. doi: 10.1198/004017008000000082
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reda, Ibrahim. 2011. Method to Calculate Uncertainties in Measuring Shortwave Solar Irradiance Using Thermopile and Semiconductor Solar Radiometers. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
   Google Scholar
• Roy, Christopher J., and William L. Oberkampf. 2011. “A Comprehensive Framework for Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing.” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 200 (25–28): 2131–2144. doi: 10.1016/j.cma.2011.03.016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seber, George A. F., and Alan J. Lee. 2012. Linear Regression Analysis. Vol. 936. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• SRML. 2012. “Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory.” Accessed August 15. http://solardat.uoregon.edu/SolarData.html.
   Google Scholar
• Strachan, P. 1993. “Model Validation Using the PASSYS Test Cells.” Building and Environment 28 (2): 153–165. doi: 10.1016/0360-1323(93)90049-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sun, Yuming, Heng Su, C. F. J. Wu, and Godfried Augenbroe. 2013. “Uncertainty Quantification of Solar Diffuse Irradiation on Inclined Surfaces for Building Energy Simulation.” Paper presented at the Proceedings of Building Simulation 2013, Chambery, French.
   Google Scholar
• Sun, Yuming, Yeonsook Heo, Matthias Tan, Huizhi Xie, C. F. J. Wu, and Godfried Augenbroe. 2014. “Uncertainty Quantification of Microclimate Variables in Building Energy Models.” Journal of Building Performance Simulation 7 (1): 17–32. doi: 10.1080/19401493.2012.757368
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Utrillas, M. P., J. A. Martinez-Lozano, and A. J. Casanovas. 1991. “Evaluation of Models for Estimating Solar Irradiation on Vertical Surfaces at Valencia, Spain.” Solar Energy 47 (3): 223–229. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(91)90082-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• U.S. Department of Energy. 2013. “Commercial Reference Buildings.” Accessed December 20. http://energy.gov/eere/buildings/commercial-reference-buildings.
   Google Scholar
• Walker, Warren E., Poul Harremoës, Jan Rotmans, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, Marjolein B. A. van Asselt, P. Janssen, and M. P. Krayer von Krauss. 2003. “Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support.” Integrated Assessment 4 (1): 5–17. doi: 10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466
   Google Scholar
• Wang, Qinpeng, Godfried Augenbroe, and Yuming Sun. 2014. “The Role of Construction Detailing and Workmanship in Achieving Energy Efficient Buildings.” Paper presented at the Construction Research Congress, Atlanta, May 19–24.
   Google Scholar
• Wilcox, Rand R. 2012. Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing. Burlington, MA: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Wilcoxon, Frank. 1945. “Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods.” Biometrics Bulletin 1 (6): 80–83. doi: 10.2307/3001968
   Google Scholar
• Wu, C. F. J., and Michael Hamada. 2009. Experiments: Planning, Analysis, and Optimization. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Wyss, Gregory D., and Kelly H. Jorgensen. 1998. A User's Guide to LHS: Sandia's Latin Hypercube Sampling Software. Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories.
   Google Scholar
• Yang, Hongxing, Lin Lu, and Wei Zhou. 2007. “A Novel Optimization Sizing Model for Hybrid Solar-Wind Power Generation System.” Solar Energy 81 (1): 76–84. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2006.06.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar