405
Views
17
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Application of a Monte Carlo model to predict space heating energy use of Belgrade's housing stock

, , &
Pages 375-390 | Received 23 Oct 2013, Accepted 30 Aug 2014, Published online: 03 Dec 2014

References

  • Bell, M., M. Black, and H. Davis, R. Partington, D. Ross, R. Pannell, and D. Adams. 2010. “Carbon Compliance for Tomorrow's New Homes: A Review of the Modelling Tool and Assumptions – Topic 4: Closing the Gap between Designed and as-built Performance.” Report No. ZCHD130210, Zero Carbon Hub, London.
  • Boardman, B. 2007. “ Examining the Carbon Agenda via the 40% House Scenario.” Building Research & Information 35 (4): 363–378. doi: 10.1080/09613210701238276
  • Booth, A. T., R. Choudhary, and D. J. Spiegelhalter. 2012. “ Handling Uncertainty in Housing Stock Models.” Building and Environment 48: 35–47. doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.08.016
  • Box, E. P., and N. R. Draper. 1987. Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
  • CHBA/NRCan. 1994. R-2000 Home Program Technical Requirement. Ottawa: Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA) and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan).
  • Cheng, V., and K. Steemers. 2011. “ Modelling Domestic Energy Consumption at District Scale: A Tool to Support National and Local Energy Policies.” Environmental Modelling & Software 26 (10): 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.04.005
  • Clarke, J. A., C. M. Johnstone, M. Lever, L. B. McElroy, L. Prazeres, and P. A., Strachan. 2005. “ESRU Project Report – Thermal Improvement of Existing Dwellings.” Final Report to the Scottish Building Standards Agency January. Energy Systems Research Unit, University of Strathclyde.
  • Corrado, V., and H. E. Mechri. 2009. “ Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Building Energy Rating.” Journal of Building Physics 33 (2): 125–156. doi: 10.1177/1744259109104884
  • De Wilde, P., and W. Tian. 2009. “ Identification of Key Factors for Uncertainty in the Prediction of the Thermal Performance of an Office Building Under Climate Change.” Building Simulation 2 (3): 157–174. doi: 10.1007/s12273-009-9116-1
  • De Wilde, P., and W. Tian. 2011. “ Towards Probabilistic Performance Metrics for Climate Change Impact Studies.” Energy and Buildings 43 (11): 3013–3018. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.07.014
  • De Wit, S. 2001. “Uncertainty in Predictions of Thermal Comfort in Buildings.” PhD thesis, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands.
  • De Wit, S., and G. Augenbroe. 2002. “ Analysis of Uncertainty in Building Design Evaluations and its Implications.” Energy and Buildings 34 (9): 951–958. doi: 10.1016/S0378-7788(02)00070-1
  • Eisenhower, B., Z. O'Neill, V. Fonoberov, and I. Mezic. 2012. “ Uncertainty and Sensitivity Decomposition of Building Energy Models.” Journal of Building Performance Simulation 5 (3): 171–184. doi: 10.1080/19401493.2010.549964
  • Energoprojekt Entel. 2006. Strategija razvoja energetike grada Beograda do 2030 [A strategy for energy development of Belgrade until 2030]. Belgrade: Energoprojekt Entel.
  • Farahbakhsh, H., V. I. Ugursal, and A. S. Fung. 1998. “ A Residential End-use Energy Consumption Model for Canada.” International Journal of Energy Research 22 (13): 1133–1143. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-114X(19981025)22:13<1133::AID-ER434>3.0.CO;2-E
  • Firth, S. K., K. J. Lomas, and A. J. Wright. 2010. “ Targeting Household Energy-efficiency Measures Using Sensitivity Analysis.” Building Research & Information 38 (1): 25–41. doi: 10.1080/09613210903236706
  • Gupta, R. 2009. “ Moving Towards Low-carbon Buildings and Cities: Experiences from Oxford, UK.” International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies 4 (3): 159–168. doi: 10.1093/ijlct/ctp028
  • Gupta, R., and D. Dantsiou. 2013. “ Understanding the Gap between ‘as Designed’ and ‘as Built’ Performance of a New Low Carbon Housing Development in UK.” Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 22: 567–580. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-36645-1_53
  • Heiselberg, P., H. Brohus, A. Hesselholt, H. Rasmussen, E. Seinre, and S. Thompson. 2009. “ Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings.” Renewable Energy 34 (9): 2030–2036. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2009.02.016
  • Hopfe, C. J., and J. L. M. Hensen. 2011. “ Uncertainty Analysis in Building Performance Simulation for Design Support.” Energy and Buildings 43 (10): 2798–2805. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.06.034
  • Hopfe, J., J. Hensen, and W. Plokker. 2007. “Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Detailed Design Support.” In Proceedings of the 10th IBPSA Building Simulation Conference, 1799–1804. Tsinghua University, Beijing, September 3.
  • Hughes, M., J. Palme, V. Cheng, and D. Shipworth. 2013. “ Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of England's Housing Energy Model.” Building Research & Information 41 (2): 156–167. doi: 10.1080/09613218.2013.769146
  • Ignjatovic, N., and D. Ignjatovic. 2006. “ Possibilities for Upgrading the Existing Building Stock in Belgrade.” Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 17 (5): 527–537. doi: 10.1108/14777830610684503
  • Institute for Informatics and Statistics of Belgrade. 1972–2010. Statisticki godisnjaci grada Beograda [Statistical Yearbooks of Belgrade]. Belgrade: Institute for Informatics and Statistics of Belgrade.
  • Johnston, D., R. Lowe, and M. Bell. 2005. “ An Exploration of the Technical Feasibility of Achieving CO2 Emission Reductions in Excess of 60% within the UK Housing Stock by the Year 2050.” Energy Policy 33 (13): 1643–1659. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2004.02.003
  • Jovanovic-Popovic, M., D. Ignjatovic, A. Radivojevic, A. Rajcic, Lj. Djukanovic, N. Dj. Ignjatovic, and M. Nedic. 2012. Atlas of Family Housing in Serbia. Belgrade: Faculty of Architecture University of Belgrade, GIZ-Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Akademija.
  • Jovanovic-Popovic, M., D. Ignjatovic, M. M. Ristivojevic, A. Krstic, A. Bogdanovic, G. Cosic, L. Djokic, A. Radivojevic, S. Dimic, and S. Stankovic. 2003. Energy Optimization of Buildings in the Context of Sustainable Architecture. Belgrade: Faculty of Architecture University of Belgrade.
  • Kavgic, M. 2013. “A City Scale Physically Disaggregated Bottom-up Energy Model: Technical Options for Decarbonising Belgrade Residential Stock.” PhD thesis, Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, University College London, The United Kingdom.
  • Kavgic, M., D. Mumovic, A. Summerfield, Z. Stevanovic, and O. Ecim-Djuric. 2013. “ Uncertainty and Modelling Energy Consumption: Sensitivity Analysis for a City-Scale Domestic Energy Model.” Energy and Buildings 60: 1–11. doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.01.005
  • Kavgic, M., A. Summerfield, D. Mumovic, Z. Stevanovic, V. Turanjanin, and Z. Z. Stevanovic. 2012. “ Characteristics of Indoor Temperatures Over Winter for Belgrade Urban Dwellings: Indications of Thermal Comfort and Space Heating Energy Demand.” Energy and Buildings 47: 506–514. doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.12.027
  • Lam, J. C., K. K. W. Wan, and L. Yang. 2008. “ Sensitivity Analysis and Energy Conservation Measures Implications.” Energy Conversion and Management 49 (11): 3170–3177. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2008.05.022
  • Letherman, K. M., and S. R. Samo. 2000. “Energy Conservation and Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction in UK Housing – Three Possible Scenarios.” In Proceedings of International Conference on Technology Watch and Innovation in the Construction Industry, 53–57. Belgium: Brussels.
  • Lomas, K. J., and H. Eppel. 1992. “ Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Building Thermal Simulation Programs.” Energy and Buildings 19 (1): 21–44. doi: 10.1016/0378-7788(92)90033-D
  • Macdonald, Iain. 2002. “Quantifying the Effects of Uncertainty in Building Simulation.” PhD diss., University of Strathclyde.
  • Markovic, B., M. Ignjatovic, and S. Mladenovic. 2008. Development and Application of Methods for Estimating Energy-efficiency of Individual Houses in Nis and Surroundings, Faculty of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Nis.
  • Mavrogianni, Anna. 2012. “Modelling Domestic Space Heating Demand and Heat Wave Vulnerability within the London Urban Heat Island.” PhD diss., Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, University College London.
  • McLeod, R. S., C. J. Hopfe, and A. Kwan. 2013. “ An Investigation into Future Performance and Overheating Risks in Passivhaus Dwellings.” Building and Environment 70: 189–209. doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2013.08.024.
  • Nishio, K., and H. Asano. 2006. “A Residential End-use Demand Model for Analyzing the Energy Conservation Potential of New Energy Efficient Technologies.” Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting, London, vol. 1, 671–682, June 21–23. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, EUR 22317 EN. http://iet.jrc.ec.europa.eu/energyefficiency/publication/4th-international-conference-energy-efficiency-domestic-appliances-and-lighting-eedal06
  • NRC. 1996. The National Energy Code for Housing. Draft 6.1, Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes. Ottawa: National Research Council.
  • Oreszczyn, T., S. H. Hong, I. Ridley, and P. Wilkinson. 2006. “ Determinants of Winter Indoor Temperatures in Low Income Households in England.” Energy and Buildings 38 (3): 245–252. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2005.06.006
  • Orr, G., T. Lelyveld, and S. Burton. 2009. Final Report: In Situ Monitoring of Efficiencies of Condensing Boilers and Use of Secondary Heating. Energy Saving Trust, London.
  • Pettersen, T. D. 1994. “ Variation of Energy Consumption in Dwellings Due to Climate, Building and Inhabitants.” Energy and Buildings 21 (3): 209–218. doi: 10.1016/0378-7788(94)90036-1
  • Quigley, Ella. 2010. “Sensitivity and Uncertainty in BREDEM-8 Predictions.” A Master's diss., Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Award of Master of Science Degree of Loughborough University.
  • Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. 1990–2010. Meteoroloski godisnjaci [Meteorological Yearbooks]. Accessed June 2, 2013. http://www.hidmet.gov.rs
  • SAP. 2009. The Government's Standard Assessment Procedure for Energy Rating of Dwellings (SAP), DERFA.
  • SEC 779 final. 2011. Impact Assessment Accompanying the Document Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on Energy Efficiency and Amending and Subsequently Repealing Directives 2004/8/EC and 2006/32/EC.
  • SEDBUK. 2012. Boiler Efficiency Database. Accessed May 10, 2013. http://www.boilers.org.uk
  • Shorrock, L. D., J. Henderson, and J. I. Utley. 2005. “Reducing Carbon Emissions from the UK Housing Stock.” Watford, UK: Building Research Establishment, BRE, p. 80.
  • Sluzbeni glasnik. 2011. Pravilnik o energetskoj efikasnosti objekata [Regulation on Thermal Efficiency of Buildings]. Official Government Publication: “Sl. Glasnik RS”, No. 61.
  • Sluzbeni list. 1970. Yugoslavian Regulations, Pravilnik o tehnickim merama i uslovima za toplotnu zastitu zgrada [Regulation about technical guidelines and conditions for thermal protection of buildings], Official Government Publication: “Sluzbeni list”, SFRJ, No. 35.
  • Smith, S. T. 2009. “Modelling Thermal Loads for a Non-domestic Building Stock. Associating a priori Probability with Building Form and Construction – Using Building Control Laws and Regulations.” PhD diss., University of Nottingham, 2009.
  • SMMRI. 2002. Consumers’ Needs, Capabilities and Readiness to Use Loans for Energy Improvement. Belgrade: SMMRI.
  • Stafford, A., M. Bell, and C. Gorse. 2012. “Building Confidence – A Working Paper.” The Center for Low Carbon Futures.
  • Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2002. Census. Belgrade: Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia.
  • Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2011. Ukupan energetski balans [Total Energy Balance]. Belgrade: Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia.
  • Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia. 2012. The First Results of Census 2010. Belgrade: Statistic Office of the Republic of Serbia.
  • Stevenson, F., and R. Rijal. 2008. “The Sigma Home: Towards an Authentic Evaluation of a Prototype Building.” Paper No 595: PLEA 2008 – 25th Conference on Passive and Low Energy Architecture, Dublin, October 22–24.
  • Struck, C., J. Hensen, and P. Kotek. 2009. “ On the Application of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis with Abstract Building Performance Simulation Tools.” Journal of Building Physics 33 (1): 5–27. doi: 10.1177/1744259109103345
  • Summerfield, A. J., R. J. Lowe, H. R. Bruhns, J. A. Caeiro, J. P. Steadman, and T. Oreszczyn. 2007. “ Milton Keynes Energy Park revisited: Changes in Internal Temperatures and Energy Usage.” Energy and Buildings 39 (7): 783–791. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2007.02.012
  • Sunikka-Blank, M., and R. Galvin. 2012. “ Introducing the Prebound Effect: The Gap Between Performance and Actual Energy Consumption.” Building Research & Information 40 (3): 260–273. doi: 10.1080/09613218.2012.690952
  • Todorovic, M. S. 2012. “Large Scale Residential/Municipal RES Integrated Refurbishment Construction and HVAC Systems Engineering R&D Needs.” ASHRAE Transactions 118 (1): 50–57.
  • UNDP. 2003. Stuck in the Past-Energy, Environment and Poverty in Serbia and Montenegro. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) . Accessed June 10, 2011. http://www.undp.org/energy/stuckpast.htm
  • Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade. 2003. The Master Plan of Belgrade to 2021. Belgrade: Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade.
  • Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade. 2010. Plan generalne regulacije za izgradnju objekata i vodova sistema daljinskog grejanja u Beogradu [Master Plan of Regulation for Construction of Facilities and Pipeline Systems of District Heating in Belgrade]. Belgrade: Urban Planning Institute of Belgrade.
  • Wingfield, J., M. Bell, D. Miles-Shenton, and J. Seavers. 2011. Elm Tree Mews Field Trial – Evaluation and Monitoring of Dwellings Performance (Final Technical Report).
  • Wingfield, J., M. Bell, D. Miles-Shenton, T. South, and R. J. Lowe. 2008. Evaluating the Impact of an Enhanced Energy Performance Standard on Load – Bearing Masonry Construction – Final Report: Lessons From.
  • Zivkovic, B., P. Zekonja, B. Svarc, and R. Galic. 2001. Analysis of Space Heating Energy Consumption of Belgrade Dwellings. Beograd, Serbia: Mechanical Faculty, Belgrade University, Department of Thermotechnics, Group for Heating and Air Conditioning.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.