Publication Cover
Transportation Letters
The International Journal of Transportation Research
Volume 12, 2020 - Issue 6
615
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Applying an ensemble-based model to travel choice behavior in travel demand forecasting under uncertainties

, , , , ORCID Icon &

References

  • Arentze, T. A., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2004. “A Learning-Based Transportation Oriented Simulation System.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 38 (7): 613–633. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2002.10.001.
  • Armoogum, J. 2003. “Measuring the Impact of Uncertainty in Travel Demand Modelling with a Demographic Approach.” Proceedings of the European Transport Conference (ETC) 2003, Strasbourg, France, October 8–10.
  • Azadeh, A., Y. Rahimi, M. Zarrin, A. Ghaderi, and N. Shabanpour. 2017. “A Decision-Making Methodology for Vendor Selection Problem with Uncertain Inputs.” Transportation Letters 9 (3): 123–140. doi:10.1080/19427867.2016.1188525.
  • Aziz, H. A., N. N. Nagle, A. M. Morton, M. R. Hilliard, D. A. White, and R. N. Stewart. 2018. “Exploring the Impact of Walk–Bike Infrastructure, Safety Perception, and Built-Environment on Active Transportation Mode Choice: A Random Parameter Model Using New York City Commuter Data.” Transportation 45 (5): 1207–1229. doi:10.1007/s11116-017-9760-8.
  • Ben-Akiva, M., and S. R. Lerman. 1985. Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Bhat, C. R., and R. Gossen. 2004. “A Mixed Multinomial Logit Model Analysis of Weekend Recreational Episode Type Choice.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 38 (9): 767–787. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2003.10.003.
  • Bowman, J. L., and M. E. Ben-Akiva. 2001. “Activity-Based Disaggregate Travel Demand Model System with Activity Schedules.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 35 (1): 1–28.
  • Breiman, L. 2001. “Random Forest.” Machine Learning 45: 5–32. doi:10.1023/A:1010933404324.
  • Chen, X. M., M. Zahiri, and S. Zhang. 2017. “Understanding Ridesplitting Behavior of On-Demand Ride Services: An Ensemble Learning Approach.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 76: 51–70. doi:10.1016/j.trc.2016.12.018.
  • Cheng, L., X. Chen, J. De Vos, X. Lai, and F. Witlox. 2019. “Applying a Random Forest Method Approach to Model Travel Mode Choice Behavior.” Travel Behaviour and Society 14: 1–10. doi:10.1016/j.tbs.2018.09.002.
  • Cheng, L., X. Chen, and S. Yang. 2016. “An Exploration of the Relationships between Socioeconomics, Land Use and Daily Trip Chain Pattern among Low-Income Residents.” Transportation Planning and Technology 39 (4): 358–369. doi:10.1080/03081060.2016.1160579.
  • Cheng, L., X. Chen, S. Yang, J. Wu, and M. Yang. 2017. “Structural Equation Models to Analyze Activity Participation, Trip Generation, and Mode Choice of Low-Income Commuters.” Transportation Letters. In press. doi:10.1080/19427867.2017.1364460.
  • Daly, A., and M. Bierlaire. 2006. “A General and Operational Representation of Generalised Extreme Value Models.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 40 (4): 285–305. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2005.03.003.
  • De Jong, G., A. Daly, M. Pieters, S. Miller, R. Plasmeijer, and F. Hofman. 2007. “Uncertainty in Traffic Forecasts: Literature Review and New Results for the Netherlands.” Transportation 34 (4): 375–395. doi:10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8.
  • Ermagun, A., T. H. Rashidi, and Z. A. Lari. 2015. “Mode Choice for School Trips: Long-Term Planning and Impact of Modal Specification on Policy Assessments.” Transportation Research Record 2513: 97–105. doi:10.3141/2513-12.
  • Ettema, D., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2006. “Costs of Travel Time Uncertainty and Benefits of Travel Time Information: Conceptual Model and Numerical Examples.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 14 (5): 335–350. doi:10.1016/j.trc.2006.09.001.
  • Flyvbjerg, B., M. K. Skamris Holm, and S. L. Buhl. 2006. “Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts.” Transport Reviews 26 (1): 1–24. doi:10.1080/01441640500124779.
  • Ghasri, M., and T. H. Rashidi. 2016. “Capturing Heterogeneity in the Multinomial Logit Model by Implementing the Bagging Method.” Presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Record, Washington D.C.
  • Ghasri, M., T. H. Rashidi, and S. T. Waller. 2017. “Developing a Disaggregate Travel Demand System of Models Using Data Mining Techniques.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 105: 138–153.
  • Greene, W. H., and D. A. Hensher. 2003. “A Latent Class Model for Discrete Choice Analysis: Contrasts with Mixed Logit.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 37 (8): 681–698. doi:10.1016/S0191-2615(02)00046-2.
  • Hensher, D. A., and W. H. Greene. 2003. “The Mixed Logit Model: The State of Practice.” Transportation 30 (2): 133–176. doi:10.1023/A:1022558715350.
  • Hugosson, M. B. 2005. “Quantifying Uncertainties in a National Forecasting Model.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 39 (6): 531–547.
  • Kwak, M., T. A. Arentze, E. de Romph, and S. Rasouli. 2012. “Activity-Based Dynamic Traffic Modeling: Influence of Population Sampling Fraction Size on Simulation Error.” Proceedings of International Association of Travel Behavior Research Conference, Toronto, Canada, July 15–20. .
  • Lawe, S., J. Lobb, A. Sadek, S. Huang, and C. Xie. 2009. “TRANSIMS Implementation in Chittenden County, Vermont: Development, Calibration, and Preliminary Sensitivity Analysis.” Transportation Research Record 2132 (1): 113–121. doi:10.3141/2132-13.
  • Li, L., X. Chen, and L. Zhang. 2014. “Multimodel Ensemble for Freeway Traffic State Estimations.” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 15 (3): 1323–1336. doi:10.1109/TITS.2014.2299542.
  • Li, S., and H. Cai. 2017. “Government Incentive Impacts on Private Investment Behaviors under Demand Uncertainty.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 101: 115–129. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2017.03.007.
  • Lyons, G., and C. Davidson. 2016. “Guidance for Transport Planning and Policymaking in the Face of an Uncertain Future.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 88: 104–116.
  • Manzo, S., O. A. Nielsen, and C. G. Prato. 2015. “How Uncertainty in Input and Parameters Influences Transport Model: Output A Four-Stage Model Case-Study.” Transport Policy 38: 64–72. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.12.004.
  • Mehdizadeh, M., T. Nordfjaern, and A. Mamdoohi. 2018. “The Role of Socio-Economic, Built Environment and Psychological Factors in Parental Mode Choice for Their Children in an Iranian Setting.” Transportation 45 (2): 523–543. doi:10.1007/s11116-016-9737-z.
  • Mohammed, F., S. Z. Selim, A. Hassan, and M. N. Syed. 2017. “Multi-Period Planning of Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Carbon Policies under Uncertainty.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 51: 146–172. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.10.033.
  • Parthasarathi, P., and D. Levinson. 2010. “Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy.” Transport Policy 17 (6): 428–443. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.04.010.
  • Petrik, O., F. Moura, and J. D. A. E. Silva. 2016. “Measuring Uncertainty in Discrete Choice Travel Demand Forecasting Models.” Transportation Planning and Technology 39 (2): 218–237. doi:10.1080/03081060.2015.1127542.
  • Rasouli, S., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2012. “Uncertainty in Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Literature Review and Research Agenda.” Transportation Letters 4: 55–73. doi:10.3328/TL.2012.04.01.55-73.
  • Rasouli, S., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2013a. “Probabilistic Forecasting of Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Matrices by a Complex Activity-Based Model System: Effects of Model Uncertainty.” International Journal of Urban Sciences 17 (3): 350–361. doi:10.1080/12265934.2013.835117.
  • Rasouli, S., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2013b. “Uncertainty in Predicted Sequences of Activity Travel Episodes: Measurement and Analysis.” Transportation Research Record 2382 (1): 46–53. doi:10.3141/2382-06.
  • Rasouli, S., and H. J. P. Timmermans. 2014. “Using Ensembles of Decision Trees to Predict Transport Mode Choice Decisions: Effects on Predictive Success and Uncertainty Estimates.” European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 14 (4): 412–424.
  • Revelt, D., and K. Train. 1998. “Mixed Logit with Repeated Choices: Households‘ Choices of Appliance Efficiency Level.” Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (4): 647–657. doi:10.1162/003465398557735.
  • Roorda, M. J., E. J. Miller, and K. M. Habib. 2008. “Validation of TASHA: A 24-H Activity Scheduling Microsimulation Model.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 42 (2): 360–375.
  • Uchida, K. 2014. “Estimating the Value of Travel Time and of Travel Time Reliability in Road Networks.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 66: 129–147. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2014.01.002.
  • Ukkusuri, S., and S. Waller. 2010. “Approximate Analytical Expressions for Transportation Network Performance under Demand Uncertainty.” Transportation Letters 2 (2): 111–123. doi:10.3328/TL.2010.02.02.111-123.
  • Witlox, F. 2007. “Evaluating the Reliability of Reported Distance Data in Urban Travel Behaviour Analysis.” Journal of Transport Geography 15 (3): 172–183. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.02.012.
  • Witlox, F., and H. Tindemans. 2004. “The Application of Rough Sets Analysis in Activity-Based Modelling. Opportunities and Constraints.” Expert Systems with Applications 27 (4): 585–592. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2004.06.003.
  • Wong, M., B. Farooq, and G-A.. Bilodeau. 2018. “Discriminative Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine for Discrete Choice and Latent Variable Modelling.” Journal Of Choice Modelling 29: 152-168. doi:10.1016/j.jocm.2017.11.003.
  • Xiao, Y., J. J. Liu, J. Xiao, Y. Hu, H. Bu, and S. Wang. 2015. “Application of Multiscale Analysis-Based Intelligent Ensemble Modeling on Airport Traffic Forecast.” Transportation Letters 7 (2): 73–79. doi:10.1179/1942787514Y.0000000035.
  • Yang, C., A. Chen, X. D. Xu, and S. C. Wong. 2013. “Sensitivity-Based Uncertainty Analysis of a Combined Travel Demand Model.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 57: 225–244. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2013.07.006.
  • Yang, S. 2013. “On Feature Selection for Traffic Congestion Prediction.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 26: 160–169. doi:10.1016/j.trc.2012.08.005.
  • Zhang, C., and Y. Q. Ma. 2012. Ensemble Machine Learning: Methods and Applications. New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • Zhang, X., S. T. Waller, D. Rey, and M. Duell. 2017. “Integrating Uncertainty Considerations into Multi-Objective Transportation Network Design Projects Accounting for Environment Disruption.” Transportation Letters. In press. doi:10.1080/19427867.2017.1359940.
  • Zhang, Y. R., and A. Haghani. 2015. “A Gradient Boosting Method to Improve Travel Time Prediction.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 58: 308–324. doi:10.1016/j.trc.2015.02.019.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.