Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms

References

• Ådlandsvik , B . 2008 . Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for the North Sea . Tellus A , 60 ( 3 ) : 451 – 458 . doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00311.x
   Google Scholar
• Ådlandsvik , B and Bentsen. , M . 2007 . Downscaling a twentieth century global climate simulation to the North Sea . Ocean Dyn , 57 ( 4–5 ) : 453 – 466 . doi: 10.1007/s10236-007-0125-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson , DM , Glibert , PM and Burkholder. , JM . 2002 . Harmful algal blooms and eutrophication: Nutrient sources, composition, and consequences . Estuaries , 25 ( 4 ) : 704 – 726 . doi: 10.1007/BF02804901
   Google Scholar
• Arnell , NW . 2003 . Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain . J Hydrol , 270 ( 3-4 ) : 195 – 213 . doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00288-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Babin , M , Cullen , JJ , Roesler , CS , Donaghay , PL , Doucette , GJ , Kahru , M , Lewis , MR , Scholin , CA , Sieracki , ME and Sosik , HM . 2005 . New Approaches and Technologies for Observing Harmful Algal Blooms . Oceanography , 18 ( 2 ) : 210 – 227 . doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2005.55
   Google Scholar
• Blauw , AN , Los , FJ , Bokhorst , M and Erftemeijerm , PLA . 2008 . GEM: a generic ecological model for estuaries and coastal waters . Hydrobiologia , 618 ( 1 ) : 175 – 198 . doi: 10.1007/s10750-008-9575-x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brockmann , UH , Laane , RWPM and Postma , J . 1990 . Cycling of nutrient elements in the North Sea . Neth J Sea Res , 26 ( 2–4 ) : 239 – 264 . doi: 10.1016/0077-7579(90)90092-U
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen , JH , Kjellström , E , Giorgi , F , Lenderink , G and Rummukainen , M . 2010 . Weight assignment in regional climate models . Clim Res , 44 ( 2–3 ) : 179 – 194 . doi: 10.3354/cr00916
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cordier , S , Monfort , C , Miossec , L , Richardson , S and Belin , C . 2000 . Ecological analysis of digestive cancer mortality related to contamination by diarrhetic shellfish poisoning toxins along the coasts of France . Environ Res , 84 ( 2 ) : 145 – 50 . doi: 10.1006/enrs.2000.4103
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ducharne , A , Habets , F , Pagé , C , Sauquet , E , Viennot , P , Déqué , M , Gascoin , S , Hachour , A , Martin , E and Oudin , L . et al. 2009. Projet RExHySS. Impact du changement climatique sur les Ressources en eau et les Extrêmes Hydrologiques dans les bassins de la Seine et la Somme, Rapport final du projet RExHySS, Programme GICC
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2008a . Scientific opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish – Azaspiracid group . EFSA J , 723 : 1 – 52 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2008.723
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2008b . Scientific opinion on marine biotoxin in shellfish - Okadaic acid and analogues . EFSA J , 589 : 1 – 62 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2008.589
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2009a . Scientific opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish – Domoic acid . EFSA J , 1181 : 1 – 61 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2009.1181
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2009b . Scientific opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish – Saxitoxin group . EFSA J , 1019 : 1 – 76 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2009.1019
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2010a . Scientific Opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish – Emerging toxins: Brevetoxin group . EFSA J , 8 ( 7 ) : 1 – 29 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2010.1677
   Google Scholar
• EFSA-CONTAM (Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain) . 2010b . Scientific opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish – Emerging toxins: Ciguatoxin group . EFSA J , 8 ( 6 ) : 1 – 38 . doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2010.1627
   Google Scholar
• Edwards , M , Johns , DG , Leterme , SC , Svendsen , E and Richardson , AJ . 2006 . Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic . Limnol Oceanogr , 51 ( 2 ) : 820 – 829 . doi: 10.4319/lo.2006.51.2.0820
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edwards , M and Richardson , AJ . 2004 . Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch . Nature , 430 ( 7002 ) : 881 – 884 . doi: 10.1038/nature02808
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gentien , P , Donaghay , PL , Yamazaki , H , Raine , R , Reguera , B and Osborn , T . 2005 . Harmful algal blooms in stratified environments . Oceanography , 18 ( 2 ) : 172 – 183 . doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2005.52
   Google Scholar
• Glibert , PM , Anderson , DM , Gentien , P , Granéli , E and Sellner , KG . 2005 . The global, complex phenomena of harmful algal blooms . Oceanography , 18 ( 2 ) : 136 – 147 . doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2005.49
   Google Scholar
• Gowen , RJ , Tett , P , Bresnan , E , Davicson , K , McKinney , A , Harrison , PJ , Milligan , S , Mills , DK and Silke , J . Crooks A-M. 2010. Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, harmful algal blooms and toxin producing algae. Available from: www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/b12157-3
   Google Scholar
• Haines , A and Patz , JA . 2004 . Health effects of climate change . J Am Med Assoc , 291 ( 1 ) : 99 – 103 . doi: 10.1001/jama.291.1.99
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hallegraeff , GM . 1993 . A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase . Phycologia , 32 ( 2 ) : 79 – 99 . doi: 10.2216/i0031-8884-32-2-79.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hallegraeff , GM . 2010 . Ocean climate change, phytoplankton community responses, and harmful algal blooms: a formidable predictive challenge . J Phycol , 46 ( 2 ) : 220 – 235 . doi: 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2010.00815.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hjøllo , SS , Skogen , MD and Svendsen , E . 2009 . Exploring currents and heat within the North Sea using a numerical model . J Mar Syst , 78 ( 1 ) : 180 – 192 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.06.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoagland , P and Scatasta , S . 2006 . “ Economic effects of harmful algal blooms ” . In Ecological studies , Edited by: Granéli , E and Turner , JT . Vol. 189 , 391 – 402 . Berlin : Springer .
   Google Scholar
• ICG-EMO. 2007. OSPAR workshop on eutrophication modelling. Available from: http://cefas.defra.gov.uk/media/351984/workshop-report-eutro-modelling.pdf
   Google Scholar
• 2007. , IPCC . Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Cambridge University Press
   Google Scholar
• Johansson , N , Granéli , E , Yasumoto , T , Carlsson , P and Legrand , C . 1996 . “ Toxin production by Dinophysis acuminata and D. acuta cells grown under nutrient sufficient and deficient conditions ” . In Harmful and toxic algal blooms , Edited by: Yasumoto , T , Oshima , Y and Fukuyo , Y . 277 – 280 . Paris : Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO .
   Google Scholar
• Kjellström , E and Giorgi , F . 2010 . Introduction . Clim. Res , 44 ( 2–3 ) : 117 – 119 . doi: 10.3354/cr00976
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klöpper , S , Scharek , R and Gerdts , G . 2003 . Diarrhetic shellfish toxicity in relation to the abundance of Dinophysis spp. in the German Bight near Helgoland . Mar Ecol Prog Ser , 259 : 93 – 102 . doi: 10.3354/meps259093
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lesser , GR , Roelvink , JA , van Kester , JATM and Stelling , GS . 2004 . Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model . Coast Eng , 51 ( 8–9 ) : 883 – 915 . doi: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.07.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Los , FJ and Blaas. , M . 2010 . Complexity, accuracy and practical applicability of different biogeochemical model versions . J Mar Syst , 81 ( 1-2 ) : 44 – 74 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Los , FJ , Villars , MT and van der Tol , MWM . 2008 . A 3-dimensional primary production model (BLOOM/GEM) and its applications to the (southern) North Sea (coupled physical–chemical–ecological model) . J Mar Syst , 74 ( 1–2 ) : 259 – 294 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.01.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Los , FJ and Wijsman , JWM . 2007 . Application of a validated primary production model (BLOOM) as a screening tool for marine, coastal and transitional waters . J Mar Syst , 64 ( 1–4 ) : 201 – 215 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.03.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marsland , SJ , Haak , H , Jungclaus , JH , Latif , M and Röske , F . 2003 . The Max Planck Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates . Ocean Modell , 5 ( 2 ) : 91 – 127 . doi: 10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martinsen , EA , Engedahl , H and Ottersen , G . Ådlandsvik B, Loeng H, Baliño B. 1992. MetOcean Modeling Project. Climatological and hydrographical data for hindcast of ocean currents. Technical report 100. Oslo: The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
   Google Scholar
• Miraglia , M , Marvin , HJP , Kleter , GA , Battilani , P , Brera , C , Coni , E , Cubadda , F , Croci , L , De Santis , B Dekkers , S . 2009 . Climate change and food safety: an emerging issue with special focus on Europe . Food Chem Toxicol , 47 ( 5 ) : 1009 – 1021 . doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2009.02.005
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moll , A and Stegert , C . 2007 . Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea . J Mar Syst , 64 ( 1–4 ) : 35 – 46 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.03.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore , SK , Trainer , VL , Mantua , NJ , Parker , MS , Laws , EA , Backer , LC and Fleming , LE . 2008 . Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health . Environ Health , 7 ( Suppl 2 ) : S4 doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nakicenovic , N , Alcamo , J and Davis , G . de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, et al. 2000. IPCC special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nakicenovic N, Swart R. editors. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. p. 599
   Google Scholar
• Naustvoll L-J, Gustad E, Dahl E. 2012. Monitoring of Dinophysis species and diarrhetic shellfish toxins in Flødevigen Bay, Norway: inter-annual variability over a 25-year time-series. Food Addit Contam A [Internet]. [cited 2012 August 15]; Available from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19440049.2012.714908. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.714908
   Google Scholar
• Pätsch , J , Kühn , W , Moll , A and Lenhart , HJ . 2010 . ECOHAM4 User guide, Ecosystem Model, Hamburg, Version 4. Technical Report No. 1-2009 , Hamburg : Institut für Meereskunde (IfM), Universität Hamburg (ZMAW) .
   Google Scholar
• Patz , JA , Campbell-Lendrum , D , Holloway , T and Foley , JA . 2005 . Impact of regional climate change on human health . Nature , 438 ( 7066 ) : 310 – 317 . doi: 10.1038/nature04188
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Paz , B , Vázquez , JA , Riobó , P , Stolte , W and Franco , JM . 2009 . Mathematical description of yessotoxin production by Protoceratium reticulatum in culture . Harmful Algae , 8 ( 5 ) : 730 – 735 . doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2009.03.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Roeckner , E , Bäuml , G , Bonaventura , L , Brokopf , R , Esch , M , Giorgetta , M , Hagemann , S , Kirchner , I , Kornblueh , L and Manzini , E . et al. 2003. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5: Part 1: Model description. Report No. 349. Hamburg: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. Available from: http://edoc.mpg.de/175329
   Google Scholar
• Skogen , MD , Drinkwater , K , Hjøllo , SS and Schrum , C . 2011 . North Sea sensitivity to atmospheric forcing . J Mar Syst , 85 ( 3–4 ) : 106 – 114 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.12.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skogen , MD and Mathisen , LR . 2009 . Long-term effects of reduced nutrient inputs to the North Sea . Estuar Coast Shelf Sci , 82 ( 3 ) : 433 – 442 . doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2009.02.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skogen , MD and Søiland , H . 1998. A User's Guide to NORWECOM v2.0, a coupled 3-dimensional physical-chemical-biological ocean model. Tech. Rept. Fisken og Havet 18/98. Norway: Institute of Marine Research. Available from: http://www.imr.no/~morten/norwecom/userguide2_0.ps.gz
   Google Scholar
• Skogen , MD , Søiland , H and Svendsen , E . 2004 . Effects of changing nutrient loads to the North Sea . J Mar Syst , 46 ( 1–4 ) : 23 – 38 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.11.013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skogen , M , Svendsen , D , Berntsen , E , Aksnes , JD and Ulvestad , KB . 1995 . Modelling the primary production in the North Sea using a coupled three-dimensional physical-chemical-biological ocean model . Estuar Coast Shelf Sci , 41 ( 5 ) : 545 – 565 . doi: 10.1016/0272-7714(95)90026-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Søiland , H and Skogen. , MD . 2000 . Validation of a three-dimensional biophysical model using nutrient observations in the North Sea . ICES J Mar Sci , 57 ( 4 ) : 816 – 823 . doi: 10.1006/jmsc.2000.0567
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stegert , C , Moll , A and Kreus , M . 2009 . Validation of the three-dimensional ECOHAM model in the German Bight for 2004 including population dynamics of Pseudocalanus elongatus . J Sea Res , 62 ( 1 ) : 1 – 15 . doi: 10.1016/j.seares.2008.10.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sterl , A , Haarsma , RJ , Selten , FM and Hazeleger , W . 2007 . The ESSENCE project – the power of a large model ensemble , In : Monna W, editor. . Biennial Scientific Report 2005–2006. KNMI, De Bilt, the Netherlands: KNMI. p. 114–118
   Google Scholar
• Sterl , A , Severijns , C , Dijkstra , HA , Hazeleger , W , van Oldenborgh , GJ , van den Broeke , M , Burgers , G , van den Hurk , BJJM , van Leeuwen , PJ and van Velthoven , P . 2008 . When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? . Geophys Res Lett , 35 ( 14 ) : 1 – 5 . doi: 10.1029/2008GL034071
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tirado , MC , Clarke , R , Jaykus , LA , McQuatters-Gollop , A and Frank , JM . 2010 . Climate change and food safety: A review . Food Res Int , 43 ( 7 ) : 1745 – 1765 . doi: 10.1016/j.foodres.2010.07.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trainer , VL and Suddleson , M . 2005 . Monitoring Approaches for Early Warning of Domoic Acid Events in Washington State . Oceanography , 18 ( 2 ) : 228 – 237 . doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2005.56
   Google Scholar
• Uppala , SM , Källberg , PW , Simmons , AJ , Andrae , U , Da Costa Bechtold , V , Fiorino , M , Gibson , JK , Haseler , J , Hernandez , A Kelly , GA . 2005 . The ERA-40 re-analysis . Q J R Meteorol Soc , 131 ( 612 ) : 2961 – 3012 . doi: 10.1256/qj.04.176
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van der Fels-Klerx , HJ , Adamse , P , Goedhart , PW , Poelman , M , Pol-Hofstad , IE , van Egmond , H and Gerssen , A . 2012 . Monitoring phytoplankton and marine biotoxins in production waters of the Netherlands: results after one decade . Food Addit Contam A , [Internet]. [cited 2012 August 15]; Available from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19440049.2011.628340, doi:10.1080/19440049.2011.628340
   Google Scholar
• van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB. 2009. ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB, editors. Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK: Met Office. Available from: http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Van Dolah FM. 2000. Marine algal toxins: origins, health effects, and their increased occurrence. Environ Health Perspect. 108 Suppl(March): 133–141
   Google Scholar
• van Meijgaard E, van Ulft LH, van de Berg WJ, Bosveld FG, van den Hurk BJJM, Lenderink G, Siebesma AP. 2008. The KNMI regional atmospheric climate model RACMO version 2.1. Tech. Rep TR-302. De Bilt, the Netherlands: KNMI
   Google Scholar
• Varkitzi , I , Pagou , K , Granéli , E , Hatzianestis , I , Pyrgaki , C , Pavlidou , A , Montesanto , B and Economou-Amilli , A . 2010 . Unbalanced N:P ratios and nutrient stress controlling growth and toxin production of the harmful dinoflagellate Prorocentrum lima (Ehrenberg) Dodge . Harmful Algae , 9 ( 3 ) : 304 – 311 . doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2009.12.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vellinga , P , Katsman , C , Sterl , A , Beersma , JJ , Hazeleger , W , Church , J , Kopp , R , Kroon , D and Oppenheimer , M . Plag H-P, et al. 2009. Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. International Scientific Assessment carried out at the request of the Delta Committee. Scientific Report WR-2009-05. De Bilt, the Netherlands: KNMI. Available from: http://www.knmi.nl/bibliotheek/knmipubWR/WR2009-05.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Yasumoto , T , Oshima , Y , Fukuyo , Y , Oguri , H , Igarashi , T and Fujita , N . 1980 . Identification of Dinophysis fortii as the causative organism of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning . Bull Jpn Soc Sci , 46 ( 11 ) : 1405 – 1411 .
   Google Scholar